I've just done a review of everyone else, looking for a potential third scummer.
bessie's play isn't hitting of any of the beats I associate with her post-Hari meta. bessie was relentless in her questioning of me when were partners in Baldur's gate. If moody is mafia, I think it is unlikely she is as she eased up on him when he gave her a somewhat satisfactory answer. My initial town read of her, and the thing that is still the strongest to me, comes from her vote count analysis. In particular, her speculation about my conformity confirmation strikes me as extremely town-indicative, especially because she never pursued it. Scum-bessie is stronger in her attempt to latch onto something to push.
Thea led the moody push D1 and pushed for heury > Glue. If the moody and heury are mafia, it is unlikely Thea is. Additionally, the user of the Thea account tends to be more reckless as town. Everything is so careful and neat when they are scum, no large cases or theories. In the past, I've tended to find the paranoid cases as suspicious but I've come to find them as just coming from a place that lacks TMI.
Fred's uncertainty D1 with their being mafia in the game or a night kill makes him town. It hits all of the points of genuine lack of knowledge. Additionally, his scum play is much more stifled and he doesn't do the point system (see: Sorcerer's 11).
Wam has potential just by the fact that he is an excellent wolf. He has no hesitation in bussing, so there's nothing town indicative about his heury preference if heury flips wolf. He also had heury and moody in the null/town leaning side of his lists D1, but I don't think that's particularly abnormal, and his play has hit more of his town beats so far. I think he is town, but I'm hoping he will be cleared through night actions so that he doesn't end up being a late-game miselim.
somi is possible, but I think his recent post about waiting to be replaced if he's going to be yeeted for info makes it unlikely.
George would be my top pick for the third if the setup ends up being something that allows for his role to fit into the mafia position. He has ignored heury and moody as possibilities all game, and when I asked him to analyze them, he put in little effort. George has stated in a prior game that the
Shroop tell is unreliable, but he used it to push Glue.
Mak was targeted by both a kill and a tree stump, so it is unlikely to me that the tree stump role comes from mafia. If Mak was only targeted by one, I could see the tree stump has having just been the form the night kill took. That being said, I don't think being a non-mafia role necessarily makes the tree-stumper town. It could be a non-town, non-mafia role. However, there is no reason to assume a 3rd party with what we have at this point in the game.
Given George's role pointing to being non-mafia, I think
Madge probably makes the most sense as the third. While I was doing this review, I initially discounted Madge due to her push for going after low-posters D1, her preference of heury > glue, and her willingness to vote moody. However, I went to look at her scum play in
Songs of Our Time and she had no hesitation in shading and voting her scummates. Day 1, she had both her scummates in the scum pool. One of them was a strong player, Sabrar, who she voted for and nicked at. The other was a low poster. I bring this up to illustrate the range Madge has in distancing from her partners.
I also think this post from that game nullifies Thea's perception about Madge's unlikelihood of slipping she is Vanilla:
fwiw i am excited because
a) havne't played for 2 years
b) i don't mean to claim or anything but... i might have a power role
any people who don't kniow me: you will laern to hate me, my meta is essentially that i don't play mafia very well. I just modded a game on here and even thouygh I knew who scum was i couldn't find any "Tells" for it so i've basically concluded that it's not something i'm good at, it's been long enough that i don't think i'll ever learn, and i don't have time to dedicat to long re-reads aNyway
that said i love breaking apart the mechanics of the game and working out the different possibilities and coming up with setup spec and whatnot so yeah
also some clear data about the setup:
- people seem to have the potential to have different numbers of elim votes frm how votals are stored
- daychat. i want to emphasise this. i hate daychat. scum can coordinate on a hammer and don't have to talk to each other obliquely in-thread
based on my role i assume nobody has anything approaching a normal role. we were told this, but i was not expecting what i've ended up with.
I also bring this post up to illustrate the sort of gameplan set-up and information gathering scum-Madge is liable to do (e.g. establishing there is day chat, determining the type of roles involved, and being open about where her role fits into it). I think it is also notable that Madge has yet to attempt to organize the role reveals/claims. She has not referenced Mak being a Psychic at all and only briefly touched on George in her readlist without going into the Stumper role. Town!Madge uses mechanical info to solve, and collecting and organizing this info is always at the forefront of her play. Her deviation from the pattern suggests to me that she might be doing this in private.
" Even though I've seen it used several times, I remain dubious about the confirmation post analysis (most likely because I am not able to use the trick myself), but I'm not going to denigrate anyone who tries the method.