Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Sabrar]

Chasing indies is a terrible idea in this game-state. We absolutely need a flipped scum so we can analyze connections.

[EGW]

Sabrar, you tell me I make my conclusion first and then gather evidence. How do I show you that Heury is scum here. What question should I answer?

[EGW]

Chasing indies is a terrible idea in this game-state. We absolutely need a flipped scum so we can analyze connections.

I'm not claiming he is indy. I'm claiming he is trying to appear town, of which I have seen him do as scum. His play here, is forced.

[EGW]

Since everyone is scum until proven innocent, here is my reads list:

Not scum
NA

Secret Mod
Madge

Scum (least to most)
heuristically_alone
ahippo
Freddino
Makhaira
Bessie
TehBubblez
Sabrar
Laserguy
Wam
Bop
Moody7277
JC_DADDY25
EGW
Boomfrog

Having him place me in this reads list was also weird.

[EGW]

I am generally concerned that xkcdians are not used to having to get to a majority vote and we are going to have a mad scramble by deadline, especially with a 15 man game.

I'll remind everyone who's not voting, Especially: Freddino18, JC_DADDY25, heuristically_alone, Madge, ahippo. A literally random vote is better than not voting. Every townie vote dilutes the power mafia have. If you are going to random vote, might as well start now. Like they say in Chicago, "Vote early, vote often!"

Additionally, since "everyone" is in agreement that Mak is a paragon of transparently townieness, I propose that Mak give us his bottom 4 and we consolidate our votes among those 4 now. Also, he can change his bottom 4 later if he wants to. This likely give town more power and will help us get meaningful numbers of votes on people. Right now we have a max of 2, the threshold is 8.

(Mak don't take this as me trying to pocket you. Scum!boomfrog would make this same post)

Hmm BoomFrog is really concerned with looking like he's pocketing that he had to clarify.

Vote: BoomFrog

Vote early, vote often!

Forced tone that I remember from the top of my head.

[Sabrar]

I'm claiming he is trying to appear town, of which I have seen him do as scum.

Yes, he admitted to this.

His play here, is forced.

This is a direct consequence of the above, doe not necessarily means he's scum.

I'll try to reread your case on him, but it would be helpful if you could summarize the points you find scummy (besides the attempt to put in more work).

[EGW]

Fine, I'll case him. I'm trying to get you to see what I see. I doubt you'll agree with me, but I'll do it anyway. It would really help if there's some specific question you want me to answer, like about his intent, something.

[Sabrar]

I don't have any specific questions to you, my read on him comes from the general vibe, not a specific ping.

[EGW]

Alright then. It'll take some time, and I do have to sleep now. I should have it done tomorrow.

[somitomi]

I don't remember. I actually thought he did with Somi in the game he was scum with him but I couldn't find it. What I found was Boom doing alot more (as town) there than here. I do think Mak has made a similar post before and that was what Initially pinged me.

I remember playing scum with Mak and I don't think we did that. I tend to be a bit risk-averse in general, the one memory I have of fakeclaiming early is when Seven convinced me to use my fakeclaim early (in a Darkest Dungeon game way back on the old forum) and it ended in disaster for us.

You misunderstand, yes. Basically I think Wam is not scum at the moment, because I feel the solve has a higher chance of being scum. (Boom, Santy, Mak) Also with my solve, I expect them to kill Bessie to throw us off, because Boom, Laser, and Mak are all competent players.

I know this is probably a playstyle thing but trying to find a complete solve at this stage feels like building a castle on thin air.

More informally are you folks requesting the move to monday or are you asking for your first full extension? I'm also kicking myself for remembering to give myself leeway on day and night timings but not deadline extensions because if you do a full deadline extension EOD will fall while I'm at work. I'm also going to assume that if you want the full extension you prefer a monday deadline and add the 48 hour extension to that which would put the deadline on weds,.

If I can chime in still, I'd prefer a Wednesday deadline if it's possible, I usually have pub quiz on Tuesday evenings

Btw im still doing my lore deep dive, pretty sure we are dealing with an independent Innominat and that this role is the "devouring" role: https://aselia.fandom.com/wiki/Innominat

In the game lore this entity causes essentially a world purge to happen after devouring 8 types of malevolence that roughly correspond to the 7 deadly sins. I could see this indy role triggering a wincon after NKing enough slots to cover all 8 malevolence types. Be mindful that a single person could carry and count for multiple types of malevolence as this literally happens in the game, he consumes a main character who contains two types of malevolence. It COULD be multiball with Innominat being paired with Laphicet https://aselia.fandom.com/wiki/Laphicet

I could see this operating in like a "laphicet inherits the powers of innominat" capacity. This is all still speculation though and Im sorry if someone has already explained this im the couple pages I haven't read yet

Well, it's the first time I'm seeing it.
If I understand correctly this "malevolence" isn't related to the "shepherd/lord of calamity" thing, so what kind of malevolence each of us carries is some kind of hidden variable?

Bottom of P31

[Wam]

Like how is that your only comment about it after all frog had posted / sabrar replies there

Beacause I was sat in an airport rapidly catching up but haven't worked out which way I think yet. Hence the extension request.

I may have missed it but van you clarify where you think Fred sussed me and JC?

[EGW]

I know this is probably a playstyle thing but trying to find a complete solve at this stage feels like building a castle on thin air.

It is, I am always trying to solve the game on Day 1. Remember town are uninformed, and scum are informed. Therefore, town have to make moves to gain more information until we can determine scum. That's what I always aim to do especially because I enjoy solving. I'm especially trying to make sure my scumpick is elimmed on D2 because nowadays, I die early.

[Wam]

Can someone who's not me and therefore possibly suffering from OMGUS comment on if santy is failling their own testing and properly pushing for the low hanging fruit of me and JC?

[AdumbroDeus]

More informally are you folks requesting the move to monday or are you asking for your first full extension? I'm also kicking myself for remembering to give myself leeway on day and night timings but not deadline extensions because if you do a full deadline extension EOD will fall while I'm at work. I'm also going to assume that if you want the full extension you prefer a monday deadline and add the 48 hour extension to that which would put the deadline on weds,.

If I can chime in still, I'd prefer a Wednesday deadline if it's possible, I usually have pub quiz on Tuesday evenings

You may not! It's too late, mwahahajaha!

The new deadline has already been decided and it's on... *Checks notes* Weds.

Well, technically early morning Thursday in my timezones.

[Wam]

vote sabrar

I have picked a side, im doing what I always say not to do and trusting boom.

[EGW]

vote sabrar I have picked a side, im doing what I always say not to do and trusting boom.

Elaborate on why please.

[Wam]

vote sabrar I have picked a side, im doing what I always say not to do and trusting boom.

Elaborate on why please.

Whilst.im tempted to say something flippant like vibes or coin flip I won't.

It goes back to.what I was saying day start about sabrar being likely to.shoot bessie and I have a memory of.some posts around the night results giving a tmi vibe I will.go.back and see if I can find them.

[EGW]

I mean, most of EGW reads and approach D1 *heavily* relied on hippo being scum and the people defending them? Like the whole Mak coaching theory and stuff. And in that post they are "backing off" but still maintaining hippo was suspicious to them.

I kinda agree with Boomfrog that you liking EGW process is a bit weird, because their main focus solving was something you disagreed quite strongly if hippo was your top town

Wam, what's your response to this?

[Wam]

I mean, most of EGW reads and approach D1 *heavily* relied on hippo being scum and the people defending them? Like the whole Mak coaching theory and stuff. And in that post they are "backing off" but still maintaining hippo was suspicious to them.

I kinda agree with Boomfrog that you liking EGW process is a bit weird, because their main focus solving was something you disagreed quite strongly if hippo was your top town

Wam, what's your response to this?

Writing it now, whilst I do it van you answer

Can someone who's not me and therefore possibly suffering from OMGUS comment on if santy is failling their own testing and properly pushing for the low hanging fruit of me and JC?

As your around?

[Wam]

For reference my read in question

EGW
Town, the analysis is good and I can follow the thought processes.

Post by post analysis

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

So starting with 1st post

But this reply is giving me a reason to stay, Why me? = Fry me

More votes on bubbles please!

Good reason for a compromise elim, but otherwise I don't think it's the best chance at scum. Just unhelpful. You mention being serious feeling Bubble's flips scum here. Elaborate on why this is.

This poking of mak here I liked.

Quoting this one in full

vote: ahippo

Giving them a big xkcdmafia welcome back

I would have it no other way. Good to be back!

vote: moody
Only fair.

God, I forgot the joys of day one. "Nothing has happened yet, but some of you MUST be bad guys, so I'm goin' off ... vibes. Vibes have never steered me or anyone else wrong before! I'm sure it'll be fine."

Joke post.

Hippo and bubblez are both lame and cringe for OMGUS voting, its only cool and smart when I do it duh

And yes hippo fry me = pressure/elim the slot

Hippo starts responding to this, yet likely sees Bop's response in P-edit, and adapts his response after reading it.

Hippo and bubblez are both lame and cringe for OMGUS voting, its only cool and smart when I do it duh

lol, I took the vote as like a handshake or a high five! It would be rude to not reciprocate! Random voting is how old mafia forum cohorts show affection, right?

The statement in question.

Bop and hippo when is the last time yall played in a game together, regardless of whether you were the same alignment or not

Mak questions Hippo on this.

Straight up got ninja'd and didn't notice.

This, does not seem like a valid answer. This feels like Mafia trying to keep calm while being questioned, yet he gives an answer that doesn't make sense.

Yep you should not have claimed that

You're probably right, but I do like having no more beans to spill. Assuming you trust what I said, I'm a known quantity. I'll accept that over trying to be cagey.

He claims, mentioning he doesn't like being Cagey. Yet sits there doing nothing else. This seems like he believes he fumbled, and claimed to recover. This bleeds mafia survival instinct. His motive for rolefishing Moody doesn't make sense. Especially since it was a joke post.

So this is where I think most of the questioning is coming from as how can this analysis be good if I disagree with the outcome. It's clear, I follow where egw is going and nothing feels forced. Whilst I disagree with the conclusion I like the thought processes it feels.townie = good in short statement in a reads list.

In retrospect I shod have elaborated.

That wording seems very specific, that it definitely seems like Hippo adapted their post with yours in mind. In the end, the interaction is weird, and he claimed pre-maturely and dipped out of the thread. I will say that wording is not common to myself, and I assume this applies to others besides yourself. He moved on to asking moody in the same page as Mak questioning him on this. Essentially, I think his thought process is that he felt he messed up, and claimed to get the exact reaction people are giving him, clearing him as town, while he isn't doing anything. Yes, I believe he is the vote for today, and better than your vote on Heury at the moment. Can you explain to me why Hippo is very likely town? Can you tell me what you believe separate from his claim?

This post in hindsight I should have questioned more not fitting my Hippo read.

I'm curious on Mak's and Boomfrog's updated reads, especially as they both were concerned about town cohesion for the elim.

This pushing here came across.townie

Don't you feel like you should provide your own reads first?

My reads are developing. You and I will talk reads soon. My concern is accuracy, rather than transparency. I have come out wrong many times while giving out full reads early. You have a problem with my handling of Hippo. This feels like a playstyle difference, rather than an alignment indicative thing. Ask me for one read and I'll give it to you in the mean time though.

I like this self analysis

LaserGuy

Slight town. Good questioning, solid observation, and caution I expect from town (non-informed). I note a lack of confidence as I expect from him, however I do note he said he hadn't found anything that he would believe strongly as a scum read, but rather that he is using process of elimination instead at that point. This is why I just have him as slight town. Post; Post; Post;

This was close to my own read of laser

@EGW: I'm going to do a full reads list next, but I'd like to know your thoughts on theBubblez.

I like your response a lot. Bubbles seems like elim bait to me. I think town are more likely to post that they are going to mostly do nothing the whole phase nonchalantly, and the omgus vote feels annoyed newb town to me, definitely not survival focused. I also like unprompted content. I agree with you on Heury, but I don't think Bubbles is scum for it due to his previous posts.

We agreed on bubbles

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84836#p84836

No one queried our massive divergence on mak on the above which is weird!

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84837#p84837

I liked.the pushing on boom above

Exactly. Don't try to influence me when I'm making my list.

I don't see this bravado from Fred in this game. Nor do I see an attempt to make a list. I only see active lurking.

This matched my Fred read

So I think other than Hippo/mak we aligned on quite a lot.of other bits

[EGW]

Can someone who's not me and therefore possibly suffering from OMGUS comment on if santy is failling their own testing and properly pushing for the low hanging fruit of me and JC?

It currently feels like he has no option like I believed before, however he pushed me earlier, and realized I was town (or so he seems to be struggling to come to that conclusion) yet still has some concern with my slot. I think it's fair to say that he isn't afraid to push anyone regardless of being low hanging fruit, nor high hanging fruit. Plus, I too am pushing low hanging fruit right now. Honestly not a reliable tell to me. Maybe it would work on a more inexperienced player, but you know I have experience, and I assume Santy is experienced enough, from how Mak and Seven have talked about them, and from seeing how he carries himself. At the moment, I have seen some good questioning from him, it's possible he may be being snowed by Boom.

[somitomi]

I chose Psychic from among my options, but otherwise yes, your summery is correct.

This might've been asked already, but why did you pick that?
Pre-post edit: Sabrar beat me to it

I'm not sure, maybe he tried to be fancy.

I think you need a better answer here if you want to convince people Boom is lying about the flavour cops.

I'll try to be more clear. I am not against the idea of claiming those parts of our flavor. However I do not agree with Boomfrog (and you) that they will help us at this point and the way he presented the idea as the best thing since sliced bread is false. Boomfrog has been emphasizing his contribution as scum in the past, you can compare this post from Animal Kingdom with this one in this game.

Okay, that's an interesting parallel, and I also agree that the flavour isn't going to be as much help as BoomFrog seems to think it is. Still wondering why you're putting up so much resistance if you're not against it.

That makes sense from a purely setup perspective, but doesn't make sense with the fact that they both targeted me N1. Scum looking for something specific would probably want to target someone who was not about to be yeeted by town the next Day. Investigating me is a townie action.

Noting this for later

If he knows both scum are cops, then there would be two.

I guess, but in this hypothetical would it not be more effective to claim cop if you're a scum cop who wants the info but also wants to lose the heat? Especially since you're risking trackers with the claim that you were targeted twice over.

I also just cannot imagine a scum faction with two cops game balance wise.


And at the end of the day, Sabrar fighting extra hard against Boom after Boom's idea, saying "I'm not against it" but not acting in a way consistent with that to me really does rub me the wrong way the longer I sit with it. I'd like to see if Sab's next posts change my mind.

Why are you certain boom is the scum cop? And relatedly:

@Hippo, According to Mak's prior experience as a motivator, Sabrar probably wouldn't know until this night. But this ups the stakes. If Sabrar is scum, then affording scum an extra night action in a game with three townies dead in a row is a nightmare. I think that's enough to push me the rest of the way to:

Vote: Sabrar

How many scum do you think we have in the setup?

Bottom of P35, lunchtime

[somitomi]

Oops. 34 I mean.
God I am progressing slowly

[somitomi]

I'd agree. If they're in the game (and I believe Boom's claim that they are) why would there be not one, but two flavor cops if they ultimately don't matter?

I understand your point, but in that case please try to explain where my analysis goes wrong. It is a strictly logical deduction, starting from commonly known facts.

Do you see any negative utility though?

JOAT stands for : Jack Of All Trades .
Frog said JOIT at first. Look where the A and the I are on the keyboard , it isnt typo material.

Instead of "All" you replace it with a word that starts with I . Which leads me to believe its a Jack of Investigative Trades, or something along the lines. So between investigative actions, they chose to self target with a psychic n1 which is weird imo

Oh yeah, I noticed that "typo" too

Have to say what worries me the most, is that the scum team is made up of players I'm viewing as town. The Moody and Bessie elims are not typical, which is strange when you consider the players in this game. It's one thing to have one or two usual N1 elim options that may be protected, but there are multiple in this game and as the numbers dwindle it is going to be harder to get rid of them. So, I'm really starting to think that the most obvious town reads may be wolves in disguise, and that's scary because they're really good at paying too their town meta even when they're not.

I don't think Sabrar and Boom are connected, but I'm not secure in picking a side at this moment.

I can't put my finger on it, but something about this post ...annoys me?

You may not! It's too late, mwahahajaha!

The new deadline has already been decided and it's on... *Checks notes* Weds.

Well, technically early morning Thursday in my timezones.

Dammit, I'm being suppressed by the mods

[madge]

I've been reading and my opinions haven't changed. I haven't been keeping track of the claim order so if someone could @me when it's my turn.

The mechanics are doing my head in but I'm trying to work through it