Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Wam]

How can you say this about GW when his analysis is that ahippo is scum but you have ahippo as top town?

Because I agree with most of egw other posts and by the time I did my reads list egw had backed off hippo here

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84839#p84839

He backed off of trying to get ahippo yeeted but clearly still thinks ahippo is scum. How can you say you agree with his logic when a big chunk of it is completely flawed? And even if you mistook that post as him changing his scum read of ahippo, did his initial thought process make sense? His ahippo push never made sense. So why say you can follow his thought process?

Fair challenge. I don't have time tonight to go.back through and flesh out where i agreed and disagreed. Will.do.it tomorrow!

[moody7277]

Oh look, Boomfrog and Bop expressed the exact same thought at the same time, they must be scum buddies!

[Bop]

Also with my solve, I expect them to kill Bessie to throw us off, because Boom, Laser, and Mak are all competent players.

This already leads to wine, though. People killing to throw off also know that some people will look for that. It's why nightkills are such a nightmare.

[Bop]

Oh look, Boomfrog and Bop expressed the exact same thought at the same time, they must be scum buddies!

[Sabrar]

Would have to get permission from my target first.

No need, I withdraw my question.

If Boomfrog was making up a cop....why make up two? Does that help that story at all? Does it make it more believable? Does it sow more trust? I don't think it does-so it seems like a really specific detail to throw out to save their skin.

I'm not sure, maybe he tried to be fancy.

Sabrar, if you truly don't think any of those things would indicate alignment, even if you think Boomfrog should still be the day vote, even if it turns out there are no flavor cops and we only find out character and can look up game when somebody flips,what do you think it hurts to do the claiming that is being proposed? Is it still bad for us to get some information to compare to what's revealed at the flip?

Why do you want to compare to what's revealed at flip? At that point we will know the alignment anyway. I'm not saying claiming these things is bad, I'm saying it won't help.

I chose Psychic from among my options, but otherwise yes, your summery is correct.

I assumed this at first, but then reconsidered seeing how unlikely it was. You're telling us that from all the abilities at your disposal you thought that finding out what powers targeted you was the most beneficial use of your power?

Also, since when do we know that scum have fake claims?

Since the mods told me that, of course. But you can ask it for yourself.

Why do we need this info now? moody's not going anywhere. I assume he's our stump-in-chief for the rest of the game.

Because I made the assumption that with moody being stumped also means that the neighborhood was never created. But if he's still talking to the target then obviously he wasn't blocked or redirected, so my question becomes moot.

I've been trying to look up terms/concepts first so I'm not always asking but what exactly is "having" a fake claim?

This depends on the mod, but generally a fake-claim is a character that is not present in the game, who is considered to be on the side of Town and might reasonably have similar powers to what scum has. Think of it as a second role-pm that is Town and could be safely claimed when necessary.

[moody7277]

heury

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

post 0: confirm poem
post 1: fluff
post 2: fluff
post 3: foses Bubblez
post 4: grief at Bop about voting him for only Fosing Bubblez during RV, Sab's excitement level NAI
post 5: no read on Bessie, thinks BF isn't as active early
post 6: response to Sab about Mak, thinks Mak is town, conditional town read of Fred, not vanilla, setup spec with 2 mafia factions of 3 and 2 members, reads with ahippo Fred town, JC EGW BF scum

Since everyone is scum until proven innocent

Cynical View likes the cut of your jib

post 7: explanation of read for EGW
post 8: BF too worried about being seen as pocketing, votes BF, BF's reads disagreeable, grief about wam's vote on him
post 9: response to Bessie about his read of BF, still thinks he's more active than usual, Fred pfp crumbs townie role, wants early hammer
post 10: post 7 was mistaken identity, EGW neutral
post 11: tells Bop he's being more aggressive, never voted for EGW

Says he's being more aggressive, and yet the most serious accusation was a Fos on Bubblez.

post 12: reads Sab as town, suggests Bop/Bubblez scum team, explaining the lack of voting due to cultural reason (no second voting in RVS), likes my reads list
post 13: updated reads, ahippo and Fred town, Bop Bubblez BF scum
post 14: still reads BF as scummy despite being corrected about his activity
post 15: likes some of BF's posts, asks Bessie about her read of ahippo, Bessie trying too hard, votes Bubblez
post 16: fluff
post 17: says Fred not claiming indy
post 18: fluff
post 19: flavor claims going to be NAI
post 20: reposts votals
post 21: pokes ahippo for content
post 22: asks JC about ordering his reads list
post 23: asks Bubblez about ordering in his reads list
post 24: Bubblez scum flip looks good for BF
post 25: 2D reads chart showing people think ahippo Mak towniest, BF Bubblez wam scummiest

Geeked about this like I did when LG did it a while back

post 26: Fred also votable
post 27: updates chart
post 28: pushes ahippo for reads
post 29: ahippo's claim should be irrelevant to read
post 30: adds ahippo's reads to chart
post 31: ahippo town lean
post 32: response to Madge about chart being double edged
post 33: fluff
post 34: switches vote to BF
post 35: asks Bessie about voting BF

Seemed very focused on ahippo at EoD for opinions, probably wanted him to have a legacy just in case

D2
post 36: flavor spec
post 37: mechanics spec
post 38: wants more details on BF about flavor claiming
post 39: spec about Bessie being NKed
post 40: more spec about night actions
post 41: flavor spec
post 42: distrusts ahippo's claimclaim

No comment

post 43: list of players for a closer look, Bubblez/somi votable
post 44: ahippo not scumhunting but still reads him as town, claims not indy
post 45: refutes JC's conclusion
post 46: says he's trying to seem town, doesn't like Sab being scumread
post 47: read of ahippo says he still doesn't like the lack of scumhunting, but reads him as town and also says scum!ahippo would be with LG
post 48: sus of Santy's question to JC, votes extension
post 49: charts used as consensus building
post 50: outside stuff

Cool charts aren't AI, some of his reads still strike me as confusing, and he seemed to be a little distracted by the flavor start of D2. Grade -0.5

[moody7277]

JC

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

post 1: says he's interested in the responses to the handshake issue
post 2: response to BF's confusion about post 1
post 3: asks BF about Fred's future content
post 4: No results yet from analysis of handshake fallout, asked BF about Fred due to previous Fred's playstyle

Disappointing conclusion is disappointing.

post 5: promise of future content
post 6: correction to post 5
post 7: vibe reads with Mak Bessie EGW town, BF Fred Sabrar scum, heury indy

The fact that he separates out heury is an interesting bit of implicit setup spec

post 8: confirms ordering of reads list
post 9: vote correction of ahippo
post 10: votes ahippo
post 11: explanation for ahippo vote
post 12: feels vote is justified
post 13: response to ahippo griefing re JC's post 11
post 14: response to EGW about Bessie's vote
post 15: reinterprets EGW post
post 16: asks Bubblez about Madge comment in his ragequit post

Credit for the analysis he wanted to do early on is gone at this point, rest of the day feels very superficial. I get the feeling I've read him this way previously, so it may not be AI

D2
post 17: flavor spec
post 18: flavor spec
post 19: setup spec
post 20: asks BF about his interpretation of flavor claim
post 21: notes BF's comment about how being associated with lord of calamity might be a miller
post 22: kill spec, asks EGW and heury for kill spec
post 23: "sliver flame" separate power from second kill
post 24: response to BF about lurking accusation
post 25: heury not town, still might be indy, wanting flavor claim NAI
post 26: response to heury claiming not indy
post 27: tells heury directly that he's not being read as town
post 28: refutes Santy saying he was pushing the Fred wagon
post 29: responding to Santy about reading heury as scummy
post 30: explanation of ahippo read
post 31: response to Santy saying conf town were scum reading him, says he's usually miselim bait
post 32: fluff

His reads aside from ahippo and heury are pretty stale, and were early based on vibes anyway so more of that please. Grade +0.5

[boomfrog]

Current reads:
Towniest townies
6. ahippo
7. TehBubblez Somitomi
9. Bop - Has thrown out a lot of very sincere independent reads. If he's scum I'll gladly lose the game to this master. Probably just high energy town though.

Probably town
14. Madge - I've seen some specific strong town tells. Maybe it's in her scum-range but I don't think so.

The Usual suspects
13. heuristically_alone - High energy, although he says that he would be as either alignment. The chart seemed like a genuinely useful attempt to help town. He felt I was scummy when that was a novel take which I like. And he seems to be constantly reevaluating. Still, nothing definitively town, and he could be scum, but I'm town leaning him.
4. Wam - low content and seeming to coast by. I don't really like most of his takes. Decent chance at being scum. But he's had a few moments of very townie tone which make me hesitate.
12. JC - Coasting so hard, with very little content. His tone feels townie, but could easily be scum.

So here's the problem. And I don't have the easy cop-out answer of blaming boomfrog. Everyone feels town. Which means we are being snowed by someone. No way is the scum team coincidentally all in the usual suspects. So probably 2 of the below 4 are scum.

The high risk group
1. Mak - Very townie tone D1 and D2 actually. But very little content D2 for obvious reasons. And didn't put much effort into non-bubblez reads lists D1. I'm reserving judgement until he has time for a new reads list or some serious takes D2.
15. Laserguy Santygrass - I absolutely love that Santy came in sharing his raw thoughts as he read through D1. That gives us a lot of rope to work with if he's scum and he could have chosen to do a easier catch summary at the end if he was scum. However, I don't like his bubblez take after bubblez last post, and I don't like how he conveniently flipped his opinion on me to scummy once it was clear I was an easy missyeet target.

I think exactly 1 of Sabrar and EGW are scum and the other is getting manipulated / pocketed. The Bessie NightElim makes no sense, both EGW and Sabrar are better targets if they are town, except for the fact that they are scum reading me, which means scum want to keep me as the D2 elim. I don't think they are scumbuddies, their back and forth has been very casual and feels sincere, I don't think it's scum theater.

The brother's in arms
2. EGW - Ridiculously stubborn and persistently wrong. But is it normal EGW town confidence or is it a scum-EGW caricature of his town play? Concluded ahippo and I are scum half-way through D1, never questioned either of us, and all new evidence only supports his existing theories. Townies have self doubt and uncertainty, scum push agendas, and EGW has constantly framed his scum findings as evidence against me to persuade others, not as things he himself is considering and uncertain about. That said, I keep thinking of the last game we played together where he subbed in on the final day and we butted heads until we lost the game together because we couldn't talk it out. So maybe he really is that bull-headed. @EGW: When you saw behavior that didn't fit your expectations such as me not defending bubblez, why didn't you ask me to explain rather than just assume there was no possible townie motivation?
5. Sabrar - Sabrar is very very mechanically minded. He should immediately be seeing the value of what I am proposing for partial claiming. And, he should be flipping his read and pointing out that I am tentatively town until we have proof of the cops existence or not. If I'm scum and was really double copped and claimed honestly, I will 100% be demonstrating that I am scum by asking for this mass claim. Once the mass claim came out, I would be shown as scum by the patterns that will surely emerge (if I was scum). This evidence should be changing his read on me. Unlike EGW, Sabrar is constantly reevaluating and uncertain. He's constantly checking his own biases. His read on me has been incredibly lazy. He initially scum read me for very slight and hard to explain reasons and then just "read everything in a biased light" from then on. That doesn't explain anything and is a pre-excuse for having gotten it wrong after my flip.

I've talked myself into it.

Unvote JC
Vote Sabrar

[Santygrass]

do we think there's an indy who has something to do with the calamity/shepherd thing? like, visit all sheperds / kill all calamities / other?

just boomfrog asking everyone to claim theres (if they're not flavour indicative) struck me as odd

I still feel Heury may be our indy, if not he's scum. He's doing really well at trying to appear town, I'll give him that.

As far as Boom goes, I think his post claiming he may show up as scum to a flavor cop was strange, but he wasn't the first one to bring up a mass claim of who everyone was aligned with... it was LaserGuy. So I don't think that is AI.

@Santy I'm not ignoring you, just already made a comment on it. Since you were catching up, figured you'd read it when you got there.

Guess I was wrong.

Basically his posts came across to me as forced town, like he's been trying very hard to make sure people think he's town. A point he pretty much confirmed a few posts later. Could it be he's just scum... yeah, it could, but the vibe I was getting was more indy. Either way, I doubt he's town.

Yeah most likely I've read it but just with the information bloat I prefer to ask and make sure of some stuff cause I didnt retain everything. Bolded I suppose then its just a vibes thing then, so noted though doesnt helps me much

[Santygrass]

@sant

Your right I'm less involved this game. It's wine but TBH I'm less involved in games as town than scum. ,one of thoez who have played with me a lot cab confirm. Also I do have a lot going on IRL. Should be good from Monday though.

But TBH if my elim is needed to clear the confusion and find scum that's life.

I do think your being too obvious about bessie found wam and jc scummy one of them must have shot her. I always think NK analysis is v hard to get right and leads down the wrong paths

I think not taking dead town legacies into account is what loses most of the games for town. Its not something you just blindly sheep of course, but it always does have weight imo.

Also I dont think Fred sus on you/JC was a motivation for you to vote them . As a fact they talked about it in twilight when they were already going to be yeeted. So its moreso "I trust the other flipped town might be onto something" . Specially considering its not only one, but two (bessie and fred)

I just reread the twilight bc I didn't recall the bolded bit and

@wam Day two, please give us a more detailed read than "this is normal" for JC

Is this, to you, an example of "Fred sus on JC/Wam?" Maybe it could have led to one, but "Fred sus on Wam/JC" seems like an extreme stretching of the truth here. I understand you've reread the game in a single day which I appreciate incredibly but I can't agree that that's what we're seeing here.

Yes, Im doing so considering how Fred plays the game. Like, they usually are pretty sharp/have good accuracy, but they dont give much reads.

Those ones were post Fred made knowing that they were dying cause it was in twilight, so in a sense Im giving them more importance because it feel like a legacy of sorts (and also like, the only takes Fred did this game lol) . If we were playing with Seven or Adum they would've been super against Fred as an elim because they tend to be just lhf not working much to pop off with reads later in endgame

[Santygrass]

@Makhaira thank you especially for tunnel visioning and just refusing to look elsewhere. And now that your "egopicks" or whatever you call them are 0 for 4, maybe you should really re-evaluate your gameplay strategy.

@Santy: The bolded is an explicit town claim from theBubblez who has 0 reason or motivation to lie here or play the role. Scum bubblez would make no alignment claims. This is 100% town. Somitomi is cleared as far as I am concerned.

Noted-

[Sabrar]

He should immediately be seeing the value of what I am proposing for partial claiming.

Incorrect, you and I do not operate on the same knowledge.

And, he should be flipping his read and pointing out that I am tentatively town until we have proof of the cops existence or not.

Incorrect, your claim was made under duress therefore does not hold the weight to cause such a complete flip.

If I'm scum and was really double copped and claimed honestly, I will 100% be demonstrating that I am scum by asking for this mass claim. Once the mass claim came out, I would be shown as scum by the patterns that will surely emerge (if I was scum).

Incorrect, that's why there are fake-claims. This is TMI, town cannot know if such patterns exist because we already know that town can come from both games and align with both sides.

[Santygrass]

Also My condolences Mak, totally valid if you want to take some time as well.

Im still struggling a bit trying to absorb lore related stuff so def appreciate the dives to help

[Santygrass]

Im not trying to force you into townreading me, but this sort of shallowness / close mindedness is very bad if you want to solve the game. So like, at least *try* to consider how the solve is if Im town / if boom is town / if mak is town. Like dont preflip people you are only going to make your solve wack

I think my major concern with your entrance was it seemed like you cherry picked things and intentionally ignored good points that actually solve. However, this quote gave me a slight town ping. I'm dropping you from the solve. It reminded me of a concern that I actually didn't look into, until now. You actually helped me remember that too.

What are some good points that you think I ignored? I 100% probably skimmed or didnt give much importance to certain stuff, so if you think I missed relevant stuff I'll gladly take some pointers to reassess or discuss them

[Santygrass]

@moody who should i vote for? going to have to log off soonish but can prob squeak out a quick post in the morning. i'm unsure after that and unsure of the deadline at this point.

@madge I still want to know who would be your preference in regards to vote. Last time when you were scum you used the town stum to not have much accountability for your votes, so like while I do understand if you are short on time to try to rely on sheeping a confirmed town, I still want you to see yourself take some stances, since your voteable pool is like, very broad from your last post

[Santygrass]

EGW
Town, the analysis is good and I can follow the thought processes.

How can you say this about GW when his analysis is that ahippo is scum but you have ahippo as top town?

Because I agree with most of egw other posts and by the time I did my reads list egw had backed off hippo here

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84839#p84839

I mean, most of EGW reads and approach D1 *heavily* relied on hippo being scum and the people defending them? Like the whole Mak coaching theory and stuff. And in that post they are "backing off" but still maintaining hippo was suspicious to them.

I kinda agree with Boomfrog that you liking EGW process is a bit weird, because their main focus solving was something you disagreed quite strongly if hippo was your top town

[Santygrass]

Also I think is fairly likely one of the flavor cops is between EGW/Sabrar aswell, just by going by how today played out. (would be funny if they both are LOL) . Im trying to absorb last Boom post , since Im actually going back to townleaning them just by virtue of liking their reads and the awareness making sense at least with their claim. But trying to figure out if the Sabrar sus is like, reasonable or just too reliant on how they expect Sabrar to play with nuances that are.. biased? idk Rn I think my take would be to just watch from a distance and see how it plays out / discuss it amongst themselves

[Santygrass]

I think exactly 1 of Sabrar and EGW are scum and the other is getting manipulated / pocketed. The Bessie NightElim makes no sense, both EGW and Sabrar are better targets if they are town, except for the fact that they are scum reading me, which means scum want to keep me as the D2 elim. I don't think they are scumbuddies, their back and forth has been very casual and feels sincere, I don't think it's scum theater.

I do think this has some weight, but its like too soon to make it as well or be a condemning point. Like if hippo is town, me as mafia would always leave EGW alive one more day f.e. . And bessie didnt have much people sussing them, moreso treating them like almost universally town so its not that weird of a nk

[Sabrar]

His read on me has been incredibly lazy. He initially scum read me for very slight and hard to explain reasons and then just "read everything in a biased light" from then on.

You didn't object to the quality of my sus on you D1. You didn't object to my summary D2. But now that you're forced to find a new target you suddenly notice all the points that I have already brought up.
Also, you didn't explain why you chose self-Psychic as your action N1.

[Santygrass]

Also, you didn't explain why you chose self-Psychic as your action N1.

This is a good point, specially considering a Joat kindof role (dont think the I was a typo there if you know what I mean)

[EGW]

@EGW: When you saw behavior that didn't fit your expectations such as me not defending bubblez, why didn't you ask me to explain rather than just assume there was no possible townie motivation?

The thought didn't cross my mind, I was and am that confident that you are scum. The only part of your play I liked was your reasoning behind voting Heury. Your tone from Day one and Day two comes off as insincere, so I never stop to consider that you are town gambiting. Having Heury as your top town also makes me doubt that you are town. I do re-evaluate, I did so on Santy recently.

[EGW]

What are some good points that you think I ignored? I 100% probably skimmed or didnt give much importance to certain stuff, so if you think I missed relevant stuff I'll gladly take some pointers to reassess or discuss them

Post, Post, Post

[EGW]

This post from Heury is very concerning: Post

[EGW]

Sabrar, Santy, read on Heury at the moment?

[JC_DADDY25]

I think not taking dead town legacies into account is what loses most of the games for town. Its not something you just blindly sheep of course, but it always does have weight imo.

Also I dont think Fred sus on you/JC was a motivation for you to vote them . As a fact they talked about it in twilight when they were already going to be yeeted. So its moreso "I trust the other flipped town might be onto something" . Specially considering its not only one, but two (bessie and fred)

I just reread the twilight bc I didn't recall the bolded bit and

@wam Day two, please give us a more detailed read than "this is normal" for JC

Is this, to you, an example of "Fred sus on JC/Wam?" Maybe it could have led to one, but "Fred sus on Wam/JC" seems like an extreme stretching of the truth here. I understand you've reread the game in a single day which I appreciate incredibly but I can't agree that that's what we're seeing here.

Yes, Im doing so considering how Fred plays the game. Like, they usually are pretty sharp/have good accuracy, but they dont give much reads.

Those ones were post Fred made knowing that they were dying cause it was in twilight, so in a sense Im giving them more importance because it feel like a legacy of sorts (and also like, the only takes Fred did this game lol) . If we were playing with Seven or Adum they would've been super against Fred as an elim because they tend to be just lhf not working much to pop off with reads later in endgame

I'm going to be honest, when I read Fred's posts during twilight I didn't feel like he knew he had been voted off because he was waiting for deadline.