Trust Fall Mafia - Day 2

[EGW]

And by that you mean you will be one of the pair to fall D3?

D3 if we have a pure pair exit today.

[EGW]

Okay so I’m doing a reread by ISO and Bessie was first. What did I notice here? All her -1 were given to town. (Note: I will be playing the rest of this game with the assumption that EGW is town because that’s pretty locked in my mind)

It’s not necessarily scummy since it could be a true attempt to sort but it could also be a fake one so it’s something I’m just going to note.

That and she has heury too high in her reads list. I want to see more content from her today to read her better.

[moody7277]

And by that you mean you will be one of the pair to fall D3?

D3 if we have a pure pair exit today.

Perfecto. Next, do you have objection to the four to perform the perfect falls being the set [EGW, bessie, Kay, Mak]?

[EGW]

I don't trust Mak due to his EOD shenanigans, and Bessie is not clear.

[EGW]

I think we should do a pair of either me EGW or Kay with either bessie or moody this phase

We dont pair me egw or kay unless we are desperate and at deadline IMO

Why do you trust Bessie? Also I need your hard read on Heury, before anything else.

[moody7277]

I don't trust Mak due to his EOD shenanigans, and Bessie is not clear.

Alright then, you would need to replace one or both of them from either [me, Bop] whom you've deprecated quite a lot the second half of D1, or from [heury, Greedy] which IMO is the solve.

[KayJayQueue]

From my reread of moody’s ISO I’ve concluded that if he’s scum, he’s scum with Mak or Bessie and I think those are the only possible pairings with scum!moody.

[EGW]

That is the edge case that occurred to me a little earlier today, so I suppose the pedantry is warranted here. Think I'll let Cynical View keep that under his hat though.

Have you thought about this?

[EGW]

From my reread of moody’s ISO I’ve concluded that if he’s scum, he’s scum with Mak or Bessie and I think those are the only possible pairings with scum!moody.

Likely not then, because I do believe Heury is absolute scum. He viewed yesterday and didn't even try to defend himself to what was brought up.

[KayJayQueue]

What's funny to me is that I'm actually not uncomfortable with this fall.

It's a lot better than the one mak's trying to still make happen

I love this pace it's like chatroom mafia again

Which half of Mak/bessie don't you like?

Nah I think Somi's town. We must now think about Moody and Bop.

Dude, if me and Bop are S1 and S2, you can just ignore us. Even if we're T1 and T2 you can do the same and trust fall us to victory.

I'm totally fine with EGW & Kay & Mak & bessie pairing up however they like.

These are the posts that led me to that conclusion.

[EGW]

Bessie had two vote on her and didn't take either and can't be scum mates with both of them, so she must he town. That's a super poor move by Mak as scum because it guarantees the clear on bessie, so that either clears Mak or Mak is a crappy scum player which can't be true as seen in darkest dungeon. (Or does that make Mak a really really good scum player this game?!?!)

This is too wishy washy.

[moody7277]

We have the first post of the game being heury voting Bessie, she does absolutely nothing about it the entirety of D1. Cynical View of that is they're both scum and she cannot by rule vote back. If it's town!heury and scum!bessie, she had ample opportunity to complete the fall even though she says she enjoys the repartee. scum!heury and town!bessie makes sense to me since all it requires is for heury to be trying to shake up his usual game by doing something audacious while Bessie, who usually takes her voting extremely seriously, would have that characteristic enhanced by the format.

Then we have Bessie's second possible opportunity to complete a fall. So, Mak votes Bessie 553pm, DB's non-bolded vote comes 4 posts (about a minute) later, Bessie actually posts at 559pm, DB does a bolded vote at 601pm. Whether or not Bessie not completing a fall with Mak depends on two things: whether DB's first attempt would have been considered the actual vote or if it only counted when DB made the bolded vote, and how much attention Bessie was giving the game at that point. On the first count, given the rest of us were fairly certain it counted so I think would scum!bessie who would just quietly wait for D2 to try again. On count two, Bessie has said she is dealing with a crapton of stuff outside right now, so being distracted enough to not notice Mak's 11th hour vote for her is credible.

Bottom line, neither vote deferral does anything to confirm her alignment.

That being said, in ISOing her I have picked up enough notes that I feel comfortable she is more likely town.

[Bop]

Don't have time to read heavy but quick thoughts on the recent post scum bessie only makes sense to me in a scum heury scenario-there's just no way you'd leave the option to score one of two points wide open for days otherwise. So if bessie left and flipped scum, then you'd have the scumteam near guaranteed to be known. Even if we're dealing with scum bessie and we let her go the path to victory is secured.

[Bop]

Which isn't saying "so it's GOT to be bessie who goes" but I do think she's not too big a risk either way as her behavior gives one possible scummate.

[KayJayQueue]

If Bessie ever flips scum, isn’t it just heury? Why would scum not just take that out? That seems crazy that someone would have so much hubris to not take the sure out to instead stick around and try to puppet the game thread without ever getting caught before finding another time to get voted. Thats why this makes no sense as a s/s play. Bessie is town and if Bessie ever flips scum we just win imo and I don’t think that’s a real possibility.

Don't have time to read heavy but quick thoughts on the recent post scum bessie only makes sense to me in a scum heury scenario-there's just no way you'd leave the option to score one of two points wide open for days otherwise. So if bessie left and flipped scum, then you'd have the scumteam near guaranteed to be known. Even if we're dealing with scum bessie and we let her go the path to victory is secured.

Spot the difference!

[Bop]

God WEDNESDAY

[EGW]

Which isn't saying "so it's GOT to be bessie who goes" but I do think she's not too big a risk either way as her behavior gives one possible scummate.

We are dealing with scum!heury.

[EGW]

Plus I want to know why Mak trusted that hard even on day 1.

[KayJayQueue]

Which isn't saying "so it's GOT to be bessie who goes" but I do think she's not too big a risk either way as her behavior gives one possible scummate.

We are dealing with scum!heury.

Should we evaluate all possible scum pairs with heury? If we read the game with a specific pair in mind, we might find something we missed before.

[Bop]

Which isn't saying "so it's GOT to be bessie who goes" but I do think she's not too big a risk either way as her behavior gives one possible scummate.

We are dealing with scum!heury.

You speak in suuuuch absolutes for someone who was certain of moody and I not 24 hours ago. But I actually agree with you on this one! (at the very least that gambit killed any trust I could have possibly built and I haven't seen anything from him to build it back up. Didn't love the stonewalling on simple stuff day one either. I don't think heury should be an option.)

Here's my really rough "should they press the button" reads list of all other players and then I gotta bounce again.


Special Cases:

They are choosing to be last out, and I trust them to do that
EGW
Kay


Good Cases:

Even if scum we'd have a full solve
Bessie

I’d be comfortable with them leaving
Moody



There's worry:

I’d need to see more that I like to be happy here
Greedy

I’m uncomfortable because behavior has been wholly different than the town game I saw
Mak

Gambit soured the pot, nothing has sweetened it.
Heury

[EGW]

Should we evaluate all possible scum pairs with heury? If we read the game with a specific pair in mind, we might find something we missed before.

I think we should.

[EGW]

You speak in suuuuch absolutes for someone who was certain of moody and I not 24 hours ago. But I actually agree with you on this one! (at the very least that gambit killed any trust I could have possibly built and I haven't seen anything from him to build it back up. Didn't love the stonewalling on simple stuff day one either. I don't think heury should be an option.)

If you look at my post, you would see why I feel more confident on Heury than I did with you + Moody. I almost considered Heury as town due to Deadbanana's hard town read of him but his questioning there revealed Heury's alignment I think. The logic does not line up, therefore it shows he is faking his reads.

[EGW]

I don’t want greedy to fall today. I have a weird feeling. It’s eating at me but something feels off.

Let me know if you find out what that was. I think it's important to consider this as well.

[Makhaira]

gun to head idk maybe its heury greedy? or maybe heury bop? moody spooked me a little yesterday but I also am not sure if scum!moody tries to top townread me to pocket that phase. I was kind of showing impulsive play tho and he may had recognized an opportunity to make me jump without looking if scum

but idk bop is also fully in range

my whole point is like I just dont think we even need to play these games because I know im town and as long as you and kay arent snowing me I only need one more and I think its bessie like I really dont understand why she wouldnt just bounce yesterday with heury if she was scum, unless of course its exactly heury bessie

[EGW]

Heury and Bessie being scum is a concern for me as I've told you before, but I'm going to solve so we can get all pure exits. Your impulsiveness gave me pause, but thinking it over, I don't think you do that as scum, since it's throwing. We are going to do this right though. That's solving for Heury's partner, and waiting for Bessie and Greedy to deliver their content.