Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Wam]

Which contrasting with my own reads , makes me think that if bessie was targeted by scum , JC and Wam are the most likely candidates, which are just the same two slots Fred notices or signaled before dying D1 as well.

Also missed this the 1st time through. Are you suggesting JC or I was good enough to lead a Fred elim based on Fred scum reading us? Cause Fred was elimmed not killed which seems a bit of a mis characterisation. I only wish I was that good a player.

[Santygrass]

@sant

Your right I'm less involved this game. It's wine but TBH I'm less involved in games as town than scum. ,one of thoez who have played with me a lot cab confirm. Also I do have a lot going on IRL. Should be good from Monday though.

But TBH if my elim is needed to clear the confusion and find scum that's life.

I do think your being too obvious about bessie found wam and jc scummy one of them must have shot her. I always think NK analysis is v hard to get right and leads down the wrong paths

I think not taking dead town legacies into account is what loses most of the games for town. Its not something you just blindly sheep of course, but it always does have weight imo.

Also I dont think Fred sus on you/JC was a motivation for you to vote them . As a fact they talked about it in twilight when they were already going to be yeeted. So its moreso "I trust the other flipped town might be onto something" . Specially considering its not only one, but two (bessie and fred)

[EGW]

If that is not the case Im lost in what specifically made "the pieces not fit" .

You misunderstand, yes. Basically I think Wam is not scum at the moment, because I feel the solve has a higher chance of being scum. (Boom, Santy, Mak) Also with my solve, I expect them to kill Bessie to throw us off, because Boom, Laser, and Mak are all competent players.

[Santygrass]

If that is not the case Im lost in what specifically made "the pieces not fit" .

You misunderstand, yes. Basically I think Wam is not scum at the moment, because I feel the solve has a higher chance of being scum. (Boom, Santy, Mak) Also with my solve, I expect them to kill Bessie to throw us off, because Boom, Laser, and Mak are all competent players.

Noted. Then it is what I thought kind of , you trying to dorce yourself to have a solve rather than your read on the player changing

Also, its evident than me and you have *very* different expectations of what a competent player plays like as mafia. Like relying on WIFOM is not at all a good mafia nightkill rationale to be expected of "competent"

[EGW]

I think currently you are trying to go against the grain but not actually solve for actual scum. Especially since you are going for Wam and JC instead of Boom.

[Santygrass]

I think currently you are trying to go against the grain but not actually solve for actual scum. Especially since you are going for Wam and JC instead of Boom.

Thats because you are scumreading everyone who isnt suspecting the slots that you are sussing. Which is a very flawed way to solve tbh.
Like, you can read and see my Boom progression and try to see if its partnered or not, or if Im specifically trying to solve. Instead you are just looking at where Im pushing and saying "you dont agree with me so your not solving" . Which is just... very shallow idk

[Wam]

@sant what's your view on mulitball?

[Santygrass]

or like. my bop progression with me started sussing them to then reading more and arriving at them being likely town. How I pushed you , because I didnt like your push on hippo (still dont like it at all) , and then even though I didnt vibe with it, agreed with Sabrar take that your hyperfocused view on that slot and how it warped your perception oof the game tracked up and could be towny (hence why I unvoted you) .
Or like, what is the mafia rationale to gun for hippo being town that strongly (since you dont have them in your solve anymore) , specially considering that if town with their claim not being able to be proven is like, easy to push (and you were pushing there when I subbed in) .

But you arent weighing or considering any of that like, at all. You are trying to put me as scum so lazily because I dont agree with your half baked solve. If you are town Interpret this post as me slapping some sense into you.

Im not trying to force you into townreading me, but this sort of shallowness / close mindedness is very bad if you want to solve the game. So like, at least *try* to consider how the solve is if Im town / if boom is town / if mak is town. Like dont preflip people you are only going to make your solve wack

[Santygrass]

@sant what's your view on mulitball?

Praying its not the case (but not impossible). Moody being a target doesnt align much with a scum or vigilante kill
Based on the kills alone Could see be a case of Town/Mafia/Serial Killer kinda deal. But I think with falvour knowledge maybe a better interpretation can be made (which is why I asked for Bop to give their own thoughts regarding the matter)

But regardless, I like to play assuming its not multiball until proven otherwise by a flip

[Santygrass]

By a flip or any other mechanical info on that matter*

[madge]

Hey Moody, do you have a night action? No need to specify faction or power. Simply, yes or no.

Let's talk about this. Why do you think Hippo made this post? Note the timing, this was after the handshake pressure.

Like, You have a motivator claim form hippo at this point.

ITS OBVIOUS why they made this question. They had their mech and night action usage in mind. Hippo themselves said it.
I do not vibe at all with the agenda you were pushing here

I really like this point.

vote for extension

I'm going on holiday in about 12 hours (really 24 but I'm going first thing in the morning so I shouldn't really imply that i'll be available while i sleep), I will have limited internet and computer access for 2-3 days. I will still be able to phone post, but might be busy enjoying my holiday somewhere that is not having 43 degree days to spend any time on it (but what else is new lol)

here's my reads attempt, all lists are in no particular order

good:
santy, ahippo, sabrar, laserguy, somi

neutral:
egw, mak, wam, boomfrog, bop, jc, heury

yes ti sucks, what u expect from me. i'll vote anywhere in neutral

theory: boomfrog probaby has a role he finds boring, hence his disinterest. he also didn't think of a stunt to pull. i am not good enough to remember if boomfrog loves or hates scum.

[madge]

EBWOP didn't finish my boomfrog thought. it's possible he has an indie that sucks too. idk. just a thought.

[JC_DADDY25]

@sant

Your right I'm less involved this game. It's wine but TBH I'm less involved in games as town than scum. ,one of thoez who have played with me a lot cab confirm. Also I do have a lot going on IRL. Should be good from Monday though.

But TBH if my elim is needed to clear the confusion and find scum that's life.

I do think your being too obvious about bessie found wam and jc scummy one of them must have shot her. I always think NK analysis is v hard to get right and leads down the wrong paths

I think not taking dead town legacies into account is what loses most of the games for town. Its not something you just blindly sheep of course, but it always does have weight imo.

Also I dont think Fred sus on you/JC was a motivation for you to vote them . As a fact they talked about it in twilight when they were already going to be yeeted. So its moreso "I trust the other flipped town might be onto something" . Specially considering its not only one, but two (bessie and fred)

Did I vote or push Fred?

[Bop]

First of all, didn't know this was a thing, but

Vote: Deadline Extension

I'll finally be able to be around a bit this weekend but it doesn't hurt us to get more time, doesn't really feel like we have two day momentum that I'm comfortable with lol especially with two replacements and a lot of RL obligations from most of us.

@sant what's your view on mulitball?

Praying its not the case (but not impossible). Moody being a target doesnt align much with a scum or vigilante kill
Based on the kills alone Could see be a case of Town/Mafia/Serial Killer kinda deal. But I think with falvour knowledge maybe a better interpretation can be made (which is why I asked for Bop to give their own thoughts regarding the matter)

But regardless, I like to play assuming its not multiball until proven otherwise by a flip

Could be corrupted and devoured are just flavor verbs for kills. 2 scum teams, scum and vig, ect

That makes the most sense to me too

Bop I get from your previous post that you have probably more knowledge of flavor . So would appreciate if you think the corruption/devouring in your speculation could fit more into scum/serial killer/vigilante or other? type of faction/roles ?

In my mind Bessie was the more obvious "mafia target" to put it some way while moody wasnt that much townread or has much of a threadpull to be considered as a n1 kill, but them also being turned into treestump (possibly by someone else? or also an effect of the role that killed them? ) is making me wonder. Or like, it could be possible that Im tripping and moody was popping off D1 with their reads and should be taken in consideration as well

I have more "the wiki and some of the cutscenes" of flavor lol, but!

I could go either way on someone being devoured-could mayyyyybe be flavor for the dragons, but as Sab said

EBWOP: being devoured is associated with Therions

And the main Therion is the protag of Berseria (Velvet)! But, also, the evil plan they're fighting against is using Therions. It would make sense for Velvet to have the ability to devour as a kill if they're in the game, and they very likely are, but its not a guarantee.

I agree with you that my thoughts are mainly complicated as the corruption kill on Moody seems much more likely to be a vig's target(which is accounted for in moody's "town redirector" theory) than the devouring kill on Bessie to me. I'd be hard pressed to imagine who was scum reading bessie hard enough to vig her last night, so it almost has to be a scum or sk kill to me. And corruption certainly doesn't read as a vig kill-that's explicitly what you're fighting against in both games!

I'd have to disagree on your multiball take. I don't like the idea of discrediting multiball before the flips at all. It puts everyone on the backfoot if it does go that way and we might not have the time to reframe reads. In a game with two kills and two games it should at least be considered! It only helps scum to throw it out outright-hence my suspicious over the night on the early fred votes when he first brought it up.

As for the aggresion , maybe it wasnt the best adjective to describe hippo vote/RVS . But like you interpreting that it didnt have teeth/desire to pressure is more so what I meant with the "not seeing the aggresion"

Ahhh, that makes more sense! You meant I wasn't seeing the aggression.

do we think there's an indy who has something to do with the calamity/shepherd thing? like, visit all sheperds / kill all calamities / other?

just boomfrog asking everyone to claim theres (if they're not flavour indicative) struck me as odd

I wouldn't be shocked! I feel like once you hit 15 players the odds of a really specific indy shoot way up. Good to keep in mind but also would be like, near impossible to guess unless we get more evidence of some other win con going on. But we should be reading day and night flavor carefully for any hints of that stuff, as I feel that's where we'd maybe get it?

Ahippo is overly concerned with their own claimed role. The lack of any scum hunting is anti-town, but the hyperfixation on this claim makes me lean more towards it being a real claim rather than a scum gambit.

Agreeing-it's very "I know what information I have and don't want to act on non certainties" from a town power role without feedback. Which, unforch, playing mafia is acting on things that aren't certain, at its core. But I think he'd show more confidence in pursuing leads with a scum team backing him, but if he's stuck acting alone this behavior makes sense to me of trying to focus on his power and what he can gleam from it. But admittedly I've been town reading ahippo big time all game so that's my most entrenched opinion.

Not done, I'll try to be on and off reading what people have said and seeing if anything sticks out.

[ahippo]

I'll get on the

Vote: Deadline Extension

train for sure.

I thought I'd have more time off from my job earlier in the week, which has led to extracurricular issues tearing my attention elsewhere. I actually really have tomorrow off! So I think I'ma spend a few hours digging in. I'll do my best to give some substantial takes. I don't think it makes sense to leave D2 without at least saying who my N1 target was, so that information WILL come out, and hopefully with enough time for people to make an informed decision about what it means.

[heuristically_alone]

I don't put much stock in anything except perhaps my financial stocks.

Updated with ahippo reads
image_2025-01-19_191747541.png

Does heury usually do these types of charts btw?

No

Also JC can you elaborate on this for me? Like, I want to know your heury read progression .

I do think it is kinda a scumtell for mafia to indy read someone they see as sus and they *know* they arent mafia. So Im curious as to why you had this read on heury

Sounds an awful like you're directing a scum partner to the right answer. Why else tell him immediately why you're asking.

Vote: Extended Deadline

[Santygrass]

@sant

Your right I'm less involved this game. It's wine but TBH I'm less involved in games as town than scum. ,one of thoez who have played with me a lot cab confirm. Also I do have a lot going on IRL. Should be good from Monday though.

But TBH if my elim is needed to clear the confusion and find scum that's life.

I do think your being too obvious about bessie found wam and jc scummy one of them must have shot her. I always think NK analysis is v hard to get right and leads down the wrong paths

I think not taking dead town legacies into account is what loses most of the games for town. Its not something you just blindly sheep of course, but it always does have weight imo.

Also I dont think Fred sus on you/JC was a motivation for you to vote them . As a fact they talked about it in twilight when they were already going to be yeeted. So its moreso "I trust the other flipped town might be onto something" . Specially considering its not only one, but two (bessie and fred)

Did I vote or push Fred?

I dont think you understood the point I was making in that post. Its the other way around that Im signaling/boosting (the fact that two dead flipped towns were sussing you+Wam)

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 2.3
1. Makhaira(0) -
2. EGW(0) -
3. Wam(1) - Santygrass
4. Sabrar(0) -
5. ahippo(0) -
6. TehBubblez Somitomi(0) -
7. Boomfrog(2) - EGW, Sabrar
8. Bop(0) -
9. JC_DADDY25(1) - Boomfrog
10. heuristically_alone(0) -
11. Madge(0) -
12. Laserguy Santygrass(0) -

Not voting: Makhaira, Wam, ahippo, Somitomi, Bop, JC_Daddy25, heuristically_alone, Madge

With 12 players alive it takes 7 to eliminate

Deadline extension: Sabrar, EGW, Wam, madge. Bop, Ahippo, heuristically_alone

It is now Day 2. Day 2 ends January 26th at 4 pm EST.

Deadline extension has been hammered.

More informally are you folks requesting the move to monday or are you asking for your first full extension? I'm also kicking myself for remembering to give myself leeway on day and night timings but not deadline extensions because if you do a full deadline extension EOD will fall while I'm at work. I'm also going to assume that if you want the full extension you prefer a monday deadline and add the 48 hour extension to that which would put the deadline on weds,.

[Santygrass]

I'd have to disagree on your multiball take. I don't like the idea of discrediting multiball before the flips at all. It puts everyone on the backfoot if it does go that way and we might not have the time to reframe reads. In a game with two kills and two games it should at least be considered! It only helps scum to throw it out outright-hence my suspicious over the night on the early fred votes when he first brought it up.

Thanks for the flavor elaboration! Really appreciate it. Yeah I could also see it being maybe a vig (or redirected vig¿?) since it feels out of place and flavor-wise is the one that *could* be when the other one points flavor-wise is much more scum related kinda tracks with what I was thinking just by the targets gamestate wise . (Unless I misunderstood something you said lol feel free to correct me)

But in regards to the multiball point. In my experience , most of the games just arent multiball (its harder to balance and yada yada) , but that doesnt mean they dont exist. But like, rather than scum getting away because town didnt think of multiball , the likeliest scenario is always that a town that is spewed town from a flipped mafia, gets yeeted because of "What if multiball??" when there wasnt anything pointing to multiball being the case other than speculation/paranoia.
If a game is multiball, there will be flips / role info and stuff that will give us more of a pointer to think there is multiball. If we assume its multiball, more likely than not we will have a wack/wrong solve in non multiball games, so its a pretty safe and like positive approach to dismiss multiball until there is concrete evidence pointing to that being the case. So far from everything we saw I dont think we have? There could be flavor implications in the resolutions and stuff. 2 deaths in n1 is like, easy to explain with Scum+Serial killer or vigilante to have enough weight. So like, its okay to keep an eye open for hints and that sort of stuff, but not solve assuming it is multiball when we dont have it confirmed, because more likely than not the solve will just be flawed

[Santygrass]

Vote count 2.3
1. Makhaira(0) -
2. EGW(0) -
3. Wam(0) - Santygrass
4. Sabrar(0) -
5. ahippo(0) -
6. TehBubblez Somitomi(0) -
7. Boomfrog(2) - EGW, Sabrar
8. Bop(0) -
9. JC_DADDY25(1) - Boomfrog
10. heuristically_alone(0) -
11. Madge(0) -
12. Laserguy Santygrass(0) -

Not voting: Makhaira, Wam, ahippo, Somitomi, Bop, JC_Daddy25, heuristically_alone, Madge

With 12 players alive it takes 7 to eliminate

Deadline extension: Sabrar, EGW, Wam, madge. Bop, Ahippo, heuristically_alone

It is now Day 2. Day 2 ends January 26th at 4 pm EST.

Deadline extension has been hammered.

More informally are you folks requesting the move to monday or are you asking for your first full extension? I'm also kicking myself for remembering to give myself leeway on day and night timings but not deadline extensions because if you do a full deadline extension EOD will fall while I'm at work. I'm also going to assume that if you want the full extension you prefer a monday deadline and add the 48 hour extension to that which would put the deadline on weds,.

Question, Wam being at 0 votes despite me voting them rn is correct?

[Santygrass]

I don't put much stock in anything except perhaps my financial stocks.

Updated with ahippo reads
image_2025-01-19_191747541.png

Does heury usually do these types of charts btw?

No

Also JC can you elaborate on this for me? Like, I want to know your heury read progression .

I do think it is kinda a scumtell for mafia to indy read someone they see as sus and they *know* they arent mafia. So Im curious as to why you had this read on heury

Sounds an awful like you're directing a scum partner to the right answer. Why else tell him immediately why you're asking.

Vote: Extended Deadline

Oh. Is there something that prompted or made you want to try doing the charts approach? Did you reach any conclussion from them that you are tracking so far?

For the second part, I am openly stating why I find it sus, dont think any explanation they give will remove weight of that sus, but if they are town then they had a ping/weird read towards a slot and them giving more clarification of their thoughts is something that helps me see it.

So far JC just ignored it so lol. And if it was partnered, the telling them what to answer goes in the mafia chat, not openly in the thread.

Are you reading JC as scum btw?

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 2.3
1. Makhaira(0) -
2. EGW(0) -
3. Wam(0) - Santygrass
4. Sabrar(0) -
5. ahippo(0) -
6. TehBubblez Somitomi(0) -
7. Boomfrog(2) - EGW, Sabrar
8. Bop(0) -
9. JC_DADDY25(1) - Boomfrog
10. heuristically_alone(0) -
11. Madge(0) -
12. Laserguy Santygrass(0) -

Not voting: Makhaira, Wam, ahippo, Somitomi, Bop, JC_Daddy25, heuristically_alone, Madge

With 12 players alive it takes 7 to eliminate

Deadline extension: Sabrar, EGW, Wam, madge. Bop, Ahippo, heuristically_alone

It is now Day 2. Day 2 ends January 26th at 4 pm EST.

Deadline extension has been hammered.

More informally are you folks requesting the move to monday or are you asking for your first full extension? I'm also kicking myself for remembering to give myself leeway on day and night timings but not deadline extensions because if you do a full deadline extension EOD will fall while I'm at work. I'm also going to assume that if you want the full extension you prefer a monday deadline and add the 48 hour extension to that which would put the deadline on weds,.

Question, Wam being at 0 votes despite me voting them rn is correct?

It is not, I missed updating a vote number and it has been corrected

[Santygrass]

gotcha, ty for the update!

[Santygrass]

As for the extension, since on my end I would've been fine even with no extension at all , Im fine with the short extension that would be Monday, but not sure about other's schedules or if somi needs more time to catch up and stuff

[boomfrog]

EGW
Town, the analysis is good and I can follow the thought processes.

How can you say this about GW when his analysis is that ahippo is scum but you have ahippo as top town?