I think it's probably best that I don't bury the lede here. My case is probably going to be long so I'd rather give you the headline first and fill in the details as we go. So, here it is:
The scumteam is exactly EGW, Seven, and Somitomi.
I am reasonably confident in everyone else being Town.
If we get to LYLO and none of these three have flipped yet, I implore that whomever is look back at this and make sure we secure at least one elimination in this group.
somitomi:
As I said in my
deep dive of somi's meta, he's a difficult player to evaluate and is generally very good about not giving much away about his alignment or partners. Aside from one particular post, most of what makes me think somi is part of this team is how his partners have been having around him.
For somi himself. I think
this post was actually a slip. Reading the start of day, somi said that Seven and EGW were scumreading each other, when in fact only
Seven was scumreading EGW and EGW had a
town ping from Seven. These posts are close together and unambiguous. This was an odd error but I initially didn't read any significance into it except to note that the vibe of the post was off. There's an odd response from somi back to me about it being a
throwaway line (about 2/3 of the way down this post, also
here). He tries to soften it to that they were debating each other in the second post, which is an interesting reframing. Scumreading is a very specific word in mafia and I strongly doubt that he did not mean it when he said it. I imagine there was some strategy discussion in scumchat about how Seven/EGW would handle each other, and somi was paying attention to THAT, and not what was actually said in thread. Mak continued to push and somi's response feels pretty
floundering.
I'm noting how much EGW goes to bat for somi over the next sequence. Starting
here, EGW starts focusing on trying to deflect interest away from the error. His read on somi is fairly
vacuous but gives him a solid Town. EGW seems certain that somi's error is not alignment indicative, but never explains why, nor gives any plausible explanation for how it could have occurred in a natural townie way, and we have a back and forth
here (and elsewhere) where he tries to talk me out of the error being relevant, despite me actually never having claimed that I thought it was. Interestingly, both Mak and I, the only people who really discussed this issue at all, ended up at the bottom of EGW's reads
here, and in both cases the push on somi cited as the reason and take up the bulk of his discussion. Spotlight here:
Mak - Let's begin with his first non-confirm post. It feels off, excited to go. Feels a tad forced, to prevent a thunder dome to his slot compared to the previous game. Maks next post, seems like trying to talk about my early game post and get others talking about me in a bad light, without a direct thought of his own. His harping on Somi for making a mistake yet giving Wam the benefit of the doubt pings me. His questioning to Seven seems odd to me, not sure where he stands with me but seems like he's asking to put me in a bad light. Overall, doesn't seem to be looking for actual scum intent, and instead just game play error.
Theaaalieza - First thing to note is his focus on Somi's error. Seems like the thing he has advised me to try to avoid. I don't think that should have been his focus for pushing Somi. That just seems unfair. Reading through, I now realize that Thea doesn't seem to have any questioning towards players? Just giving out a read or two, the Seven being the most prominent. With his post towards me, at first I thought maybe it came from a misguided standpoint. However, him saying that my reasoning was forced seems off. I'm not sure how my reasoning can be forced when it wasn't a long exerpt of reasoning. Plus it seems he tacked on the timing to pad his reasoning, when it makes more sense I was waiting for Wam to post content first. (Since I asked the mod to prod Gluelock and Wam, I wanted to see them in thread and see what they do) Then his post asking Seven what he thinks of Wam's town/scum meta, and why the error is alignment indicative. It's odd he's asking this when he's been focusing on Somi's error instead of looking at the rest of their play.
Why? Why is EGW so confident that somi is Town that people questioning him are likely mafia? Also, given what I've seen of Makhaira's content, I think this comments about him not scumhunting well are shockingly disingenuous. Regardless, it doesn't make sense. There's a
lot more of this. And then this
super weird moment where both
EGW and
Seven drop votes on somi and EGW claims to have a
scumread on him but flips him back to town
without explanation. It is also SUPER weird that somi
never comments on this and immediately joins EGW to
vote on Gluelock. This is such a strange interaction. Somi isn't the least bit curious and this is never referenced again. This last moment feels like it is intentional distancing, possibly in response to me
noting a connection between EGW and somi.
EGW:
I feel like I ended up talking a lot about what I wanted to say regarding EGW in my somi read, but I want to highlight a few specific things separate from that that have been bothering me about EGW.
Here are EGW's reads over the course of D1:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
EGW wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 10:06 am
So far:
Town: Laserguy, Seven
Scum: Madge.
Vote: Madge
I'm noting that this post on Madge is one of the few reads where EGW actually seems to think about his read and we see him
re-evaluate. I don't have a problem with this change, just noting it for completeness.
EGW wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:28 am
Gluelock and Wam are scum. I think people are latching on to the wrong thing to scumread Somi. I'd rather see his reads and his overall play. I'm neutral on Moody.
(Noting again his defense of somi here)
EGW wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 1:30 am
Town [EGW > Seven > Fred > Somitomi > Bessie > Madge > Moody | Heury, JC Daddy, Gluelock | Wam > Mak > Theallieza] Scum
Unvote; Vote: Theallieza
EGW wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 10:53 pm
Town [EGW > Seven > Theallieza > Mak > Fred > Bessie > Madge | Heury, JC, Gluelock | Wam > Moody > Somi] Scum
EGW wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:29 am
Town [EGW > Seven > Mak > Freddy > Bessie > Moody > Somitomi | Heury, JC, Wam | Theallieza > Madge > Gluelock]
Scum
EGW wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 8:42 pm
Hello, Seven. It is time to release the read. Mak is scum, not Thea.
EGW wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 2:24 am
I think these will be the best options for today:
Gluelock, Wam, Madge.
Some of the players swing significantly one way or the other without explanation. As noted above, Somi jumps from Town to full scum and back again without any real explanation for the shifts; I have a similar trajectory. One thing that is particularly surprising about this is that
EGW's case on me is paper thin. EGW is typically a very aggressive scumhunter as Town and will usually pursue his scumreads extensively. Here he is very tentative and despite reading me as scum (and others), his pushes are weak and he is surprisingly quick to back down. I don't get the sense that EGW has a lot of conviction in any of his scumreads. I have been on the receiving end of pushes by Town!EGW and this lukewarm approach to his reads is not how he generally plays.
In addition to defending somi, EGW has been very vocal about his uncritical defense of Seven. See
here,
here,
here,
here,
here,
here,
here,
here,
here. It's like a reflexive response. Any time someone makes a negative comment about Seven, EGW steps in and says he's Town. EGW and Seven have played many times before and I have no doubt that EGW is aware that Seven is a top-tier scum player and locking him Town at this stage in the game is extremely suspect.
Seven:
I want to start by highlighting my commentary here:
Theallieza wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 12:31 pm
My logic is essentially this:
-Seven claims he can read EGW extremely well.
-Seven knows that Town!EGW is almost impossible to misyeet because he's very strong and it is very obvious when he is Town.
If Seven is scum and EGW is Town, then attacking EGW is unlikely to be productive: EGW is never getting yeeted, and Seven puts a spotlight on himself because Town!EGW is likely to defend himself vigorously. Scum Seven would probably prefer to buddy EGW and redirect his attention elsewhere.
If both are scum together, Seven dislikes bussing and generally avoids attacking his buddies. He'd probably say EGW is Town.
I think Seven most likely attacks EGW if and only if Seven is Town and sincerely believes EGW is scum. The edge case is if Seven is scum and believes EGW is 3rd party.
What is unusual about this game is that Seven makes this read
here, very early in the game (contrast
here where he knew EGW was a wolf from post 1 and withheld so he could get buddy info) and this is never followed up on. He never really attempts to make a push and
switches his read later without a lot of fanfare. Note again the reference to somi in this last post, btw.
Unfortunately, the logic above doesn't hold in this game. Seven didn't actually make a real push against EGW and they ended up closely linked for most of the day phase. And while it is true Seven does not like to bus, I don't think what we have here really qualifies as he did not provide any information that might lead Town to EGW's elimination, nor attempt to put him in a position where he could be voted off. I think Seven's push against EGW here was an attempt to give himself a fig leaf of cover if EGW were to flip later in the game, without actually putting EGW in any danger. Light distancing with no follow through, that allows him to still claim he had read EGW as scum but without having to do any of the heavy lifting of actually trying to make a case against him. Seven gets away with saying EGW is townie before the end of day, and they can happily townlock each other for the rest of the game. Seven is an excellent scum player and in particular is an excellent motivator of his scummates. He knows EGW's weaknesses as scum and I imagine has been giving him additional support in chat to elevate his play.
A few other notes about Seven. One is
this, where he interprets Wam's error of having EGW on his reads twice as scum indicative. As I noted at the time, meta on Wam is that he is a very good, careful scum player, and tends to be a lot more loose as Town--this within the realm of errors I would expect from him as Town. Seven even
acknowledges that Wam is error-prone as Town later, so it's strange that his initial reaction to drop Wam in the scum pile for this doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I feel similarly about his attempt to
undermine my Town read of Madge. He doesn't want to have to put himself in a position to lock her slot as Town. I don't really feel like this is the sort of thing that Seven would ignore as Town, as he and I have a similar approach in looking for townslips and I think he would have found this and locked Madge in.
Makhaira:
I want to end with a brief discussion of Makhaira, because reading through his content with this team in mind, he has been absolute fire this game. Here are the highlights:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 3:47 am
EGW wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 10:06 am
So far:
Town: Laserguy, Seven
Scum: Madge.
Vote: Madge
I dont think I've ever seen EGW make a post like this, wild
Makhaira wrote:somitomi wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 7:07 pm
Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 3:47 am
I dont think I've ever seen EGW make a post like this, wild
What is wild about it?
the fact that I honestly cant ever recall EGW giving such an abridged reads list with so little context so early in the game with this kind of delivery is wild. EGW usually isnt so willing to just give reads without explanation
somitomi wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 7:07 pm
Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2024 3:47 am
is the bolded a joke? tone over internet is hard
Well, I wasn't particularly serious when I typed that, but I'm not sure it'd qualify as a joke.
but they werent scumreading each other, seven scumread EGW and EGW townread seven for it. how did you misunderstand this?
Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:19 am
Seven posturing as very confident on the D1 solve and not actually pushing their picks is a bad look here tbh
Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:26 am
seven and egw I just frankly need more from to be able to read and thea seems to be trying to solve and communicate legit reads I guess but none of them should be plays at this point for various nebulous reasons
Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:44 pm
somitomi wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:56 am
Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:16 am
but they werent scumreading each other, seven scumread EGW and EGW townread seven for it. how did you misunderstand this?
It was a quick throwaway line about Seven and EGW debating each other already like they usually do, I just chose the wrong word because I wasn't paying too much attention.
Why weren't you paying too much attention? If you're trying to solve shouldn't you be paying attention to the specific reads different slots have on each other? Or do you not care what others think much this early in the game because it doesn't affect you existentially and you already know everyone's alignment and derivatively who's reads are right and wrong already?
Makhaira wrote:EGW wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 8:26 am
Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Sep 02, 2024 6:19 amwhat role in the scum partnership do you believe seven played in that game? point scum or support scum?
Seven posturing as very confident on the D1 solve and not actually pushing their picks is a bad look here tbh
Scum that helped coach Bessie play a townie game as scum. I can understand the idea behind support scum but not sure what you mean by point scum. They also meant to kill me N1 but I got bodyguarded. (Thanks to JC) I understand Seven the most here most likely. I still think he's town. Him not pushing me at the very least shows that he either didn't truly believe I was scum early game, or if he does somehow (boo) then he'd wait to see how I play to truly develop his read on me. In the other game, he just instantly read me as town. (Yeah EGW you're town I get it, *votes Mak*) So, towntell for Seven for pumping the brakes.
Point scum = the "point man", i.e. the person who is leading the charge and playing the most active scum role. The powerwolf in the context of the game so to speak. Support scum = the mate who takes the back seat and plays around what the point man is doing.
I'd argue that seven was the point scum in that game and their play here is not incongruent. Their read on your slot here may be flipped but this is still seven trying to put their thumb on the scales early with some bravado. scum!seven used the same overconfident approach to get me yeeted that game, they thunderdomed me ffs!
Makhaira wrote:@Seven how does this specific post impact your EGW read?
Makhaira wrote:@Seven again, how does EGW early power grabbing here affect your read of the slot?
Makhaira wrote:why wam over moody if you're so convinced moody is scum? do you believe scum!wam is likely commit such an unforced error as scum this early in the game under relatively low pressure?
Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:33 am
EGW wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 1:29 am
Mak - Let's begin with his first non-confirm post. It feels off, excited to go. Feels a tad forced, to prevent a thunder dome to his slot compared to the previous game. Maks next post, seems like trying to talk about my early game post and get others talking about me in a bad light, without a direct thought of his own. His harping on Somi for making a mistake yet giving Wam the benefit of the doubt pings me. His questioning to Seven seems odd to me, not sure where he stands with me but seems like he's asking to put me in a bad light. Overall, doesn't seem to be looking for actual scum intent, and instead just game play error.
where are you getting the impression I'm afraid of a thunderdome? I havent been shy at all. I also don't understand why you think I'm "giving wam a pass" but "harping" on somi. Their mistakes are of relatively different character. And definitely am not firming convinced that somi was scum skimming or that wam actually was stream of consciousness drafting his reply as he claims. Im just surprised that you are completely convinced it is scum wavering that he forgot to edit out before posting. Im not actually sure where you're getting that I'm putting you in a bad light at all, I've never advocated for you to be elim'd and I've been interacting with you directly and trying to get an understanding of where seven is coming from on their scumread of you and why you essentially hardcleared seven for that which I found strange
Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 4:43 am
EGW wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 1:47 am
Gluelock was already viewing thread and it's been multiple days from both of them without posting. I had more town reads at the time at the top of my head and Gluelock / Wam seemed to be the only suspects for me at the time.
Wam, it's simple. He's been caught faking his reads, which only scum do. No meta required.
I'm confused, if you're so convinced wam is definitively faking reads why are you voting thea? based on your most recent reads are you saying the team is me wam thea if its 3 scum?
Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 5:40 am
EGW if you're town we gotta figure something out here man because idk what I'm doing that scares you so much in these D1s lol
Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 6:30 am
EGW I was asking seven about you soliciting sheep votes because it is out of character in my experience for you in D1 and I wanted a sanity check, it pinged me as similarly odd to you giving that hyper abridged early reads list as just offbeat
Makhaira wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 1:53 am
EGW wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 8:42 pm
Hello, Seven. It is time to release the read. Mak is scum, not Thea.
wait if you think glue is scum how can I be his mate bro has been gunning for me all phase for no reason lmao im genuinely confused how you think this
Makhaira wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 2:17 am
EGW wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 2:02 am
Makhaira wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 1:53 amwait if you think glue is scum how can I be his mate bro has been gunning for me all phase for no reason lmao im genuinely confused how you think this
I'm well aware that he did. I am taking it with a grain of salt. Especially since he only has a few posts referring to you, he isn't gunning for you. I'm also mostly scumreading you both individually.
he isn't gunning for me? bro Im like one of the only slots he's consistently thrown shade it in his very substantive posts. also this is a weird take considering you just did a whole solve based around thea/glue/madge and then said it was actually secretly a mak/glue/madge solve which suggests your are reading us a scum together no?
EGW wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 2:03 am
Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2024 5:40 amEGW if you're town we gotta figure something out here man because idk what I'm doing that scares you so much in these D1s lol
Also this feels off to me because we didn't really talk extensively.
I was making a point about a meta trend in the last few games where you've been suss of me early in pretty much all of the last few games we played together and I think I was only scum in one of them and it was a multiball game? I feel like my play has been pretty consistent across the board in those games so I'm just like not getting what is setting you off though I think Im starting to see now its an early game effort thing, like you don't think I'm trying to get a full solve D1, which you are correct to read because Im not lol I never try to go for a full game solve, I need more concrete info to actually put real effort into a full solve so I guess I just answered my own question
Makhaira wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 2:18 am
EGW wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 2:06 am
Makhaira wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 1:42 amEGW - no way scum!EGW banks on holding on to a "true" scum read on me hoping to get a powerswap post deadline extension, I'd be genuinely shocked
Can you elaborate on this. Powerswap for what exactly.
you making a late in phase big push for a wagon swap to me. I don't see you thinking you have high EV there as scum and doubt you would risk it, maybe im underestimating your powerwolf capacity tho
Makhaira was fairly consistently pushing against all three of members of the team, and was skeptical of all three at various points. As far as I can see, no one else was really pursuing the same angles that he was. I'm not usually one for night kill analysis, but suffice it to say I think this team had a strong motivation to eliminate Mak.