Re: HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse
Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2023 7:09 am
What if two mafia and two indy lovers are voting for me
Press F for the old forum.
https://ramenchef.nfshost.com/nxf/
Woah I didn't realize I did that before (though there I was treating premises as facts). Pretty silly that you don't like it then considering I was right on you.LaserGuy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 6:53 amSeven - I don't love this case he made on bessie I don't know a lot of the assumptions here really hold up under strong analyis. FWIW, he did make a similar style case against me in Midnight OPS () where he was Town so it's not entirely out of his wheelhouse to advance this sort of argument. FWIW, I think if Seven is Town his [url=https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=51819#p51819]case on EGW is very likely correct; Seven and I have discussed this before and he claims to have an extremely strong bead on EGW. There's kind of a mixed bag of posts that I think are kind of townie and some I think are kind of scummy, so I don't have a great sense of where to place him; Seven isn't a player I have historically had a great record of reading. I think I'm going to put him as cautiously just on the townie side of null for right now. Definitely not interested in his elimination though.
As in, you were a slot that I was considering I may have been wrong on, but seeing your conclusions on Zen, Gluelock, and Adum, makes me realize that you are still scum. Your scumreads aren't convincing, you aren't actually trying to determine scum, you are ignoring them. Also your reads on Boom, Bessie, and Gluelock are your weakest. You seem to ignore the fact that Adum and Gluelock are both reaching with their arguments on me. Your read on me mentions my energy but I have been a presence in thread, yet you neglect to mention my pushes in the game, or what you think of them.LaserGuy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 7:07 amMy reads should be predictable. I have been talking about my reads for the entire game. I didn't go into the full details and some people moved around here and there upon reread, but I have been pretty transparent with my thoughts barring one or two things that I was (or still am) percolating on.
Don't think this fits. Without day talk there's really no way for a scum to assert this kind of priority before the first night without being more obvious in thread unless they're so naturally dominant. In which case, why were they on Seven in the first place? A naturally dominant non-Seven scum giving moody their marching orders would make more sense.bessie wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 6:04 amAnother misleading interpretation. Why not: moody just got marching orders based on your lead in thread?Seven wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 12:07 am The only town read I'll go into is moody. Here's the town slip:It's what Adum was trying to use as a reason for George being town, the lack of realization that there's no day chat.
Anyway, Moody has had lots of little towny micromoments, and Boom not seeing this is another area of concern. I'm burnt out at this point though so hopefully Laser can take up the mantle if it gets to a point where Moody is going to be elimmed.
Mafia games for comparison are useful, unfortunately none of the town games are fast enough to figure out if the differences between here and Sorc's make sense.I will try to explain the confirmation post thing another time.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 1:11 am My eyes are absolutely glazing over at the "confirm" discussion. It reads all NAI and a product of a mafia community that's meta has gotten too incestuous that people are actually taking it seriously this late in the game.
This doesn't really move my issues with how distinct your play has been from Sorc's, which laserguy correctly pointed out. I'm still waiting for you to provide me with some games where you were town that were decently fast moving.
@anyone can feel free to do it too, give comparably fast moving games where Bessie wasn't in a hydra so I can compare her play to them.
The xkcd archive is hard to skim because it is a bunch of pdfs of pages I managed to download from google cache after the site went down. There’s some stuff in the Wayback Machine I’ll look through it tomorrow. I think these are all my games on Smashboards:
https://smashboards.com/threads/flavorl ... on.501573/
Flavorless Mafia I was town but I had to sub out because I went to intensive care for three weeks.
https://smashboards.com/threads/sumting ... er.504676/
Sumting Mafia I was mafia but I was still partially blind so the parts about not being able to play at night were true.
Things I Like already linked.
https://smashboards.com/threads/apex-le ... on.507976/
Apex Legends Mafia I was mafia.
https://smashboards.com/threads/witchhunt-1.508990/
Witchhunt I was town.
https://smashboards.com/threads/wams-ch ... ad.512648/
Wam’s Chaos I was town.
https://smashboards.com/threads/decisiv ... er.513025/
New D3 Mafia I was town.
https://smashboards.com/threads/spirite ... er.513462/
Spirited Away I was non-town I can’t remember the setup clearly but it was not standard.
Will need to reply to Laser tomorrow I’m really tired out from being forced to socialize at my husband’s gig. Those of you that are extreme introverts will understand.
I just didn't see anything else useful to pick at with that exchange, my issue with what I think is your thought process for it remains there though I've been seeing the gears turning in your head for your later thought processes regardless of whether I agree on them (or simply don't know).
Mind DMing me instead so this doesn't become game relevant and therefore we can't talk about media til game ends? Plus, distraction in a game that's already pretty fast.
And Som, who are your biggest townreads right now?somitomi wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 10:52 pm@Seven: what do you think of this?
It's bedtime for me and tomorrow I'm helping out a friend who's moving so I'll probably won't be able to check the thread during the day. I'll work out tomorrow why two of my biggest townreads are scumreading each other. Until then
Vote Seven
I'll have to go back and look at JC's post(s) up until now, I don't remember thinking his tone was off from that last game though...Seven wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 9:13 pm JC’s tone here is different than it was in the game I played with him where he was town. And yes, I’m picking up on the difference from just a few posts, as it was only his first couple of posts in the previous game that I derived a town read.
In that game there was a player named Niph who had recently played with JC as scum. She also noted the tone difference from his scum game and his town game from just a couple of posts. She described his scum meta as sitting back and not really solving as he’s doing here.
The caveat I have is that his difference in tone may be due to attempting to keep up with boomfrogs instructions, so I await one of his reasoned read lists to form a conclusion.
Your list is close to mine either we are seeing the same things or you're pocketing me. On the same note, Idk if I should be happy you're impressed by having a similar read on EGW or worried. Bookmarking this to revisit D2 if we're wrong on EGW.Seven wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 10:16 pm Time to reveal my hand. Higher up = more wolfy, lower = less wolfy
Wolves
EGW
Bessie
Adum
Substitute Wolf (If Wrong on Adum)
JC
Town but Weird
Boom - Indy Potential
Zeniba - No Indy Potential, but does have Mafia Potential
heury - Important Town PR
Town Core
Makhaira/Somitomi/Moody/LaserGuy/Gluelock
Seven
Details to follow shortly.
You in fact did not.
This is townie to me, maybe indy because until I saw you guys talk about it I didn't consider that alignment at all.
This is similar to the game we played together on MU, didn't post much at all D1, was relatively more active until F3 where it was me, JC, and a wolf. We were in lylo and JC didn't appear for pretty much most of the phase. He came in clutch and sided with me to vote out the wolf though.LaserGuy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 6:53 am
JC - Hard null. Literally no content other than posts just telling us they are catching up. I feel like the lack of even an attempt to engage with what they've read is kind of awful TBH. Does anyone have useful meta on this player they can share? Is this normal?
Completely non-official correction: I think LaserGuy is voting for EGW.
@modsLaserGuy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 6:53 am Adum - I initially got some bad vibes from Adum through this exchange (there's a bunch of posts, I'm not going to quote them all) with Adum where I felt he was kind of twisting the wording of a bunch of my posts to mean something that I didn't intend and ended up landing on a scumread despite his case not really suggesting anything particularly scummy even in the worst misinterpretation. That said, ignoring that particular exchange and looking at the broader picture, this doesn't seem to be a particular trend in Adum and I'm leaning more toward it being a playstyle clash between us from that any else. I do feel @Adum backed off a bit from this exchange and I am a little curious as to the reason. On the whole his analysis seems very thoughtful and his method of making reads is very clear. Solid Town.
bessie - I think I've discussed everything that I want to about bessie at this point. You can see my analysis here. I'm putting kind of an asterix next to this read while I mull something over. I think I'd prefer a non-bessie elimination today though.
BoomFrog - I had an early Town ping on him, but haven't had much else in his content that his really jumped at me. I feel like in previous games I've played with Boom where he was Town, I found his insights, if not agreeable, at least, IDK, deeper, than what I've seen out of him so far this game. He's a play who I feel like usually sinks his teeth into the game more than what I've got out of him so far. Putting him at nullScum.
EGW - EGW is usually a strong Town-leader type of player who makes big pushes and rather openly advance a fairly transparent Town agenda. I know he's said he's trying to play a little less high octane, but he said the same in Sorc mafia and from what I have read of that game it seems like he was more of a presence there. I also feel like there's a performative nature to some of that posts--like he's repeatedly referencing that game (where he was Town, rather than trying to argue his defense on its own merits. I think the lack of energy here is pretty telling, and I see that Seven feels the same which I put a fair amount of stock in. Scum lean.
Freddino/Zeniba - Literally the only thing I have on this slot is this post. I think on balance players tend to be more honest, regardless of their alignment, in situations where they are, at this point, not really playing anymore, so the fact that Fred highlighted any suspicion of him should be attributed only to his inactively kind of leads me to believe there's nothing else to be suspicious of here. Would really love to see more of Zeniba though. Town lean.
Gluelock - Have been vibing with a lot of their analysis and their takes. Nothing has really stood out as problematic. Solid Town.
heury - I have a lot of problems with how heury has handled my slot specifically, and their relation to bessie (here, here, here). tl;dr version is heury said he was suspicious of me for scumreading bessie, which, IDK, even on surface level is kind of weird since scumreading someone (even incorrectly, as heury seems to believe) is not scummy. Heury and bessie and I have played many times before and he at least theoretically should be aware that I tend to have a pretty good bead on bessie. Moreover, he supplemented this with the argument that I was scumreading bessie for not doing confirmation analysis... however, as has been pointed out repeatedly in thread, it was EGW who made this claim, not me. heury has neither acknowledged the error nor does this seem to have affected his read. This comes across as super opportunistic to me as it was essentially an unprompted observation that followed my back-and-forth with Adum and I feel his vote against Seven later was similarly opportunistic, jumping on the wagon as soon as it seemed to be gathering steam without a lot of process leading up to it. Scum lean.
JC - Hard null. Literally no content other than posts just telling us they are catching up. I feel like the lack of even an attempt to engage with what they've read is kind of awful TBH. Does anyone have useful meta on this player they can share? Is this normal?
Makhaira - I still think, despite the very extended discussion on this point that I will not rehash any further, that this post suggests a townie mindset from Mak. I think the observation from Adum that Mak reading this from Zeniba and drawing the some conclusions as they did when they read it from moody suggests a townie mindset as well. Town lean.
moody - I like moody's play so far this game. There's sort of an openness about his observations that I've noted when he's mafia that I don't see here. Everything comes across as very hedgy. Not much content so far, but I'm comfortable with my Town read here.
Seven - I don't love this case he made on bessie I don't know a lot of the assumptions here really hold up under strong analyis. FWIW, he did make a similar style case against me in Midnight OPS () where he was Town so it's not entirely out of his wheelhouse to advance this sort of argument. FWIW, I think if Seven is Town his [url=https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=51819#p51819]case on EGW is very likely correct; Seven and I have discussed this before and he claims to have an extremely strong bead on EGW. There's kind of a mixed bag of posts that I think are kind of townie and some I think are kind of scummy, so I don't have a great sense of where to place him; Seven isn't a player I have historically had a great record of reading. I think I'm going to put him as cautiously just on the townie side of null for right now. Definitely not interested in his elimination though.
somitomi - Somi has super similar vibes in his Town and scum games so I've never found I've had great luck reading him on tone and unfortunately his content is kinda light. There was this exchange that kind of struck me as a little off for somi. I don't really understand this vote as somi had Seven as a decent townlean earlier and likewise why EGW suddenly flipped to Town. Feel like I need more out of somi to really have a good sense of where he's at, but I'm plunking him in nullscum for now.
Not doing the line graph because I'm way too lazy at the moment, but here's an ordered list:
Town
LaserGuy
Adum
moody
Gluelock
Zeniba
Makhaira
Seven
---Null = JC--
somitomi
BoomFrog
bessie
EGW
heury
Scum
Of the wagons available, I think EGW is probably my interest right now. As I said, I will probably not be around much tomorrow except hopefully right close to deadline.
Vote: EGW
Zeniba wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:13 pmListing all posts made by user:moody7277....
Highlighting repetition over set normal parameters....
------
- bessie wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:41 pm
moody7277 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 02, 2023 6:56 pm
Vote: Adum
Sus exclamation point is sus.
Quit trying to steal my schtick. Everyone's confirmation post was perfectly acceptable. Which is suspicious.
I figured it's been long enough that that cliche belongs to everyone now.
Bessie read: +4.
- Mak getting confused by BF using non-standard language looks honest to me, although them skimming the intro flavor text is a little troubling. BF is acting like what I remember of old, which right now is comforting, we'll see if that holds up D2 and on. The reason for switching to a serious vote is ...
- Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 6:48 pm
moody7277 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:58 pm
Mak getting confused by BF using non-standard language looks honest to me, although them skimming the intro flavor text is a little troubling.
who says im confused or skimming?
Boomfrog, he found the text he was citing that you said you couldn't find.
- @Laserguy: I'm willing to say that whether they were skimming or not is maybe a difference in a +1 and +1.5 read on Mak at this point. Boomfrog seemed to be making a bigger deal of it IMO. My view on the game is that mafia="Kill all humans" AIs, and town="serve and obey and keep men from harm" AIs.
- AdumbroDeus wrote:
On other matters, what are your that thoughts on Bessie and Laser so far?
Right now, bessie is solid town, the +4 is on a -10 to +10 scale, haven't seen anything to touch the meta. I think I'd put LaserGuy at a +1.5, I've liked some of the reasoning behind his reads.
boomfrog wrote:
Observation collapses quantum states. The experiment must run it's course.
This is quintessential BF, but Cynical View is reminding me he does this just as much as scum.
Lot of screen-name comparisons that are meaningless to me, so won't be included in analysis.
- Adum: RV bessie (with what I actually think is an actual RV reason), rest of the first post is joke jester claim. Defensive of Mak in the flavor incident, wants BF's results from the incident, soft reaction to being called scum by Seven, tells me whether Mak skimmed should be NAI. That obv of a connection with Mak would be dumb for a scumteam, so that is in his favor. +1.5
bessie: upset with me "appropriating" the exclamation point thing, also being kind of "disagree"able in most of her responses. +3.5
BF: A few style posts, first major action voting Adum over his RV, flavor incident starts vs Mak, concerned with LG's contribution, intermediate finding is pro-Mak. +2.5
EGW: RV Gluelock, scattershot questions, switches vote to bessie, questioning of LG, with some shade thrown at Gluelock +1
Fred: being replaced, no vital posts 0
Glue: new guy, says he's been "lurking", reads BF as town, seems okay with EGW's vote, then slightly shifts anti-EGW, post count blues +1.5
huery: style posts, town read of BF with surprise at early results, quasi-read list with maybe a scum lean on Somi. -1
JC: nothing, sad. -1
LaserGuy: snap read of me and heury as town, also likes Mak and BF, votes EGW, questions me about the flavor incident, then play devil's advocate when Adum also asks me about it, extended discussion with scum read on EGW, updates Mak read to neutral due to nothing besides flavor incident content, notes EGW's point about Gluelock +2
Mak: beginning of flavor incident with snark about bastard game, RV EGW, comment about the metaphorical "dead town wins too" statement they didn't explicitly find, decides BF is behaving in good faith, but now is a little stuck in the flavor incident +1.5
Seven: style posts, confirm post analysis with Adum, LG, Gluelock (Seven not being SDK, I don't know how seriously to take that), threatens violence against bessie, sotto claims vote restriction, scum reads Adum -0.5
somi: lightly dips his toe in the flavor incident, otherwise fluff, blames outside distractions -0.5
Mid-post update:
bessie post looks okay, keeping her at +3.5
heury posting still a little light, still -1
Zeniba wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 6:30 pm
Vote: moody7277
Well, hello to you too.
- Unvote
Vote: heury
_
Boom might legitimately be scum here. As mentioned before, Speculative Seven reads this as indy budding mafia. I do the same thing when I'm indy: look for who I think is scum, then buddy them so they don't night kill me. However, Occam's Seven would say that it'st just maf boom attempting to keep his partner(s) alive. Boom has been defending bessie since quite early, before indy-boom could have gotten a scum read of her.