Wam wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:08 am
LaserGuy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:36 am
I feel like maybe there were other places that shot could have been used that might have been more useful.
Seven you were pushing hard for somi end of day. Why a sudden boom pivot?
I just dont see how you can be a positive force for town after that and it's going to have to be some amazing logic when your back!
Ok, so the first thing you have to know about me is that I'm not a bottom-up thinker. That is, I don't start from an origin point and discover a destination. Rather I start from the possible destinations and eliminate them (in clusters if possible) until only one remains.
Illustration of bottom up:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
Making my way downtown
Walking fast, faces pass and I'm homebound
Staring blankly ahead
Just making my way
Making a way through the crowd
Trying to figure out where to go
Based on the evidence
That I'm slowly piecing togetherrr
Illustration of top down:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
One by one my branches are trimmed
One by one my leaves fall
One by one my tales are told
One by one until only one
My, oh my!
She was aiming too high
He says Adiós, says Adiós
So yes, if I were an evidence-based bottom-up player, I would have killed somi and used his flip to guide forward movement. But in my future-oriented world where I am trimming destinations, it's just not as alluring because somi is mafia in 90% of the branches, whereas Boom is (was) mafia in like 40%
So using my shot on somi has a 90% chance of only eliminating 10% of the branches. Or a 10% chance at eliminating 90% of the branches.
Boom had a 40% chance of eliminating 60% of the branches or a 60% chance of eliminating 40% of the branches.
So like there is like a 2-3 times as much value in seeing a boom flip for solving the game. And that's not even taking account into the fact that Boom is a mafia power player who would be very difficult to eliminate through voting, especially if he was bussing moody (which I thought to be the case).
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Ok so now onto my logic for why I thought boom was likely scum.
Assumption: The game consists of 7 town
Heuryzen - is town.
Jim - Is not survivor because he is playing with too much gust and not afraid to be night killed. Is not cult for the same reason. So Jim as scum is mafia only. However, Jim was resistant to eliminating Pat at the EoD rather than taking the opportunity to eliminate a mafia cop; therefore, Jim is not mafia either.
Jim is town.
Bessie - Has been very open with her speculations even when they are a long shot (such as testing to see if there was a militant atheist (I don't know what that is btw)). Bessie as scum keeps this sort of speculation close to the vest/in scum chats.
Bessie is town.
Wam - He has interacted with everyone consistently. And this line about Heury seems to come from a town mindset because it's a throwaway that he didn't bother to elaborate on, but which I presume was due to his experience with Heury in WWZ:
viewtopic.php?p=7001#p7001.
Wam is likely town.
Laser - Being so direct here feels so natural and townie:
viewtopic.php?p=6968#p6968. Additionally, a possible Laser meta tell: he isn't explaining his
shifting thought processes in thread, which means he's doing the bulk of it in his quicktopic which means he's probably town. Key word there is 'shifting'. I think town/indie Laser may appear to be much more tunnely in thread because he has already worked out his views in private. Like how he keeps giving the same reasoning over and over again for why he thinks I'm Survivor etc. It's so tunnely. Scum Laser I think is more apt to try to give the impression of pondering and changing views.
Laser is likely town.
Sniper - The we post here seems obvnewbie town:
viewtopic.php?p=6900#p6900. Considering I'm town, this post is townie:
viewtopic.php?p=7165#p7165 because his idea of Pat being scum is centered on the idea of me being her partner. The reasoning for his heury vote seems genuine here:
viewtopic.php?p=7933#p7933.
Snide is likely town.
So with 6 town players that means that only one of the following players is town:
Boom
Pat
Moody
Somi
Suzaku
Boom - Weird moody push. Didn't seem like he was actually trying to save Pat at EoD and was just doing it for show. The "I'll compromise to somi or ToS" made me feel like he and moody were partners and he was just doing everything for show / lack of consequence of bussing due to revival. It's very difficult to sort out what is mafia boomfrog and what are simply boomfrog idiosyncracies.
Pat - believe to be cult
Moody - seems townie in his responses to pressure
Somi - many scum tells
Suzaku - unknown
-Suzaku isn't mafia because he was night killed
-Moody and Pat aren't a mafia team based on the way he responded to the idea that he bussed day 1
-Moody probably isn't mafia with somi based on his gusto and somi's lack thereof.
-Boom isn't partners with Pat because he was treating her like a newbie town miselim.
-Boom and somi could be partners. Boom and moody could be partners (see above reasoning).
Therefore, the scum group is not Suzaku/Pat/Moody/Somi. Therefore either Boomfrog is mafia OR I am incorrect about at least one of the bottom three in my town group (Wam, Laser, Sniper).
And so I killed BoomFrog to see which of those realities we are in and why I've been skeptical of Wam and Laser today more than I was before. Also I wrote the above in present tense but that was my reasoning going into the night not my current stance. As of where we are now, I still am reading wam as town. Like he's just playing a superb scum game if so. Laser I am very skeptical of because I think his play could be just as much 3rd party as it is town. And his not voting thing just feels like it would fit one of the 3P roles, like by not voting he gets some sort of immunity during the night or something. I had Sniper as obvtown most of the game, but it's seeming likely that the he and somi are just mafia. I would very much like an explanation for why he didn't investigate Pat Night 1.
So my current town grouping is:
Me
Boom
Jim
Bessie
Wam
Pat
The third parties are in: Suzaku, Laser, Moody
Mafia
Sniper
Somi