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Oh crums, the deadline is today. Quick-ish mayonnaise post

moody7277 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 12:19 am

somitomi wrote:Yeah, that's not a good look, although paranoid-me is sitting in the corner asking "why has there been no pushback against the Mak elim?"

Seems like most of the day so far has been Seven and EGW whipsawing Mak.

Yeah, so I'd expect the other scum to do something, maybe present a case on an alternative target or do a little bit of a chainsaw. I don't think EGW or Seven is bussing here, they pretty much set toDay's events into motion and everyone else has been just vaguely nodding in agreement.

EGW wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 9:30 pm I think this vote here and then a sudden switch to Seven is confirmation that Mak is scum here. There was no purpose to his vote here, only to incriminate Bessie upon his downfall. Mak likes to bus, as seen in Halloween AI, where he voted me as soon as I got pressure from LaserGuy.

I'm not sure I entirely understand why Mak would respond to his own downfall by incriminating his partner.

bessie wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 2:54 am Early claim for no reason. [-1] Note that Seven keeps talking about how he is going to use this claimed power, but has not yet used it.

I know you don't like early claims, but do you think that's actually alignment indicative coming from Seven?

LaserGuy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 3:01 am A duel has been compelled. The only players available for voting for today are Seven and Makhaira. Votes to other players (including no elimination) will not be counted.

EGW wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 3:21 am Seven is scum with Mak

Seven has not town telled Day 1, that is established. There has been a certain lack of bravado and scumhunting from Seven. The Mak vote seemed like a pre-mature push due to having no other options at the time. However, Mak seemed to reveal himself to actually be scum, so it seemed to me like Seven was correct, and may have been correct on Bessie. Yet, their approach has been odd. They questioned my town ping of Mak, instead of discussing my scumreads. Compared to PYP, there has been less questions from Seven. I was the one driving most of the questioning here. I believe that Seven has an awkward push on Bessie, and when I derailed it, they moved on to voting Mak when he was V/LA with no other options of who to scumread. Also, on the night kill. I expect with Seven scum, that he would intentionally not kill me to keep challenge in the game, as he has told me this before. I believe Seven is bussing Mak here. Also, Seven's intro posts served no real purpose here, usually Seven does have a certain plan to gain results, no such thing. I think Seven has scum equity here, while also bussing Mak to gain a solid footing as scum. I believe that Seven is trying to use their role to clear themselves rather than use it for the benefit of town. This post doesn't feel genuine as a response to me asking why Seven would want to use such a chaotic role. If I'm dead, and Mak has already flipped scum, and it's lylo and Seven is still around, auto-yeet Seven.

I'm gonna have to come back and think this over after work and that's going to be pretty last minute, but off the cuff I think Seven would be the kind of player to see someone going after his partner, say "nuh-uh" and spend the rest of the day arguing up a storm.

So thunderdome scenarios

TvT - both are town, well this sucks. Entirely plausible, will hold off awaiting finishing my re read of seven.

TvS - one scum. Think 90% odds if this is true Mak is the scum. Seven had no pressure on them so would be an interesting move to put themselves against a townie with all the attention, focus and pressure this would bring and I don't think it's the winning play.

SvS - both scum. This doesn't suck!. This would be the move I would love to pull. But again I don't think scum seven thinks this is the play for the win. Mak was already being linked to me setting up a miselim day 3.

vote mak

Seven

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=64954#p64954

So Seven kind of predicted the day 1 elim in his 1st post.

I'm coming back to this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=64971#p64971 at the end and thos one
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65134#p65134 and this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65918#p65918

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65140#p65140 power looks true foe the vote aspect. Nk aspect is TBD.

Lots of focus early day2 on mak, too much to link to examples.

Good reads list I like here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65929#p65929

So wacky theory time. Seven is an indy. They are the only ones referring to 3p as a possibility and all the underline bits above to me are hints that way.

I think they decided to have fun being a 3p and are going for manipulating the players as much as possible and having fun without worrying about win con.

Knowing laser I think a standard indy wouldn't be in the game so am guessing it might be something like "thunderdome against a mafia member and win" .

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:08 am TvS - one scum. Think 90% odds if this is true Mak is the scum. Seven had no pressure on them so would be an interesting move to put themselves against a townie with all the attention, focus and pressure this would bring and I don't think it's the winning play.

even in the (rather unlikely) scenario that Mak is town and Seven managed to snow everyone?

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:25 am Knowing laser I think a standard indy wouldn't be in the game so am guessing it might be something like "thunderdome against a mafia member and win" .

As fun as that wincon sounds, I don't think that's likely because Seven could win before the game ends and then we'd have a player with absolutely no stake still in the game.

Somi

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65275#p65275 if mak flips scum I'm going domi as partner. This us classic scum buddy positioning in a town - scum list

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65579#p65579 why does steong power role =apathy?

Less content than I remembered. Neutral.

somitomi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:47 am

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:08 am TvS - one scum. Think 90% odds if this is true Mak is the scum. Seven had no pressure on them so would be an interesting move to put themselves against a townie with all the attention, focus and pressure this would bring and I don't think it's the winning play.

even in the (rather unlikely) scenario that Mak is town and Seven managed to snow everyone?

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:25 am Knowing laser I think a standard indy wouldn't be in the game so am guessing it might be something like "thunderdome against a mafia member and win" .

As fun as that wincon sounds, I don't think that's likely because Seven could win before the game ends and then we'd have a player with absolutely no stake still in the game.

Answering both questions.

If mak is town and seven scum. I still think this play puts too much attention on scum seven for the win. Unless their buddy is very town read and can glide on the chaos.

For the wincon I was assuming seven would then leave the game in case of a win. Which I don't think it's game breaking. So if its 4/1/2 would then end up 3/1 day 3. Or if hes wrong and maks town and its 3/1/2 going into N2 I would expect either seven to die overnight or something to balance.

Summarised reads list

Town
Egw - town
Mak - town lean
Moody - town lean
Somi - neutral
Bessie - neutral
Seven- indy

vote seven

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:56 am https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65579#p65579 why does steong power role =apathy?

JC having a strong scumhunting power could explain why he wasn't concerned with placing a vote.

somitomi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 11:24 am

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:56 am https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65579#p65579 why does steong power role =apathy?

JC having a strong scumhunting power could explain why he wasn't concerned with placing a vote.

But he should still care about day 1. I can see the logic but not sure I agree.

EGW wrote:Seven is scum with Mak

That would make Seven working with you early D2 an epic bus job.

wam wrote:So wacky theory time. Seven is an indy.

Indy in a 9p game? Doesn't seem big enough to justify one. Also, why should you care?

My marker is on Mak for elim, will wait until I get home from work to put an official vote down for discussion purposes, will be available all the way to deadline if needed.

moody7277 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 11:34 am

wam wrote:So wacky theory time. Seven is an indy.

Indy in a 9p game? Doesn't seem big enough to justify one. Also, why should you care?

I'm trying to solve that's why I care!

Going after indies at this point, if that alignment even exists in this game, seems a waste of effort.

But in my mind it's a matter of %. Gut feel numbers.

Mak scum 40%
Seven indie 80%

Which one would you go for?

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:09 pm But in my mind it's a matter of %. Gut feel numbers.

Mak scum 40%
Seven indie 80%

Which one would you go for?

Scum. Eliming indies is not what wins the game for town.

But eliminating townies wins it for.scum. so that's where my head is at. Is elim mak worth the risk and that corm back to my town lean.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:27 pm But eliminating townies wins it for.scum. so that's where my head is at. Is elim mak worth the risk and that corm back to my town lean.

Of that 20% chance Seven isn't indie, in your opinion, what portion is her being scum, because it's absolutely less than the 40% chance of Mak being scum that you give?

moody7277 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:33 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:27 pm But eliminating townies wins it for.scum. so that's where my head is at. Is elim mak worth the risk and that corm back to my town lean.

Of that 20% chance Seven isn't indie, in your opinion, what portion is her being scum, because it's absolutely less than the 40% chance of Mak being scum that you give?

2% ish? I can't see her doing the thunderdome as scum as per above analysis.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:25 am Seven

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=64954#p64954

So Seven kind of predicted the day 1 elim in his 1st post.

I'm coming back to this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=64971#p64971 at the end and thos one
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65134#p65134 and this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65918#p65918

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65140#p65140 power looks true foe the vote aspect. Nk aspect is TBD.

Lots of focus early day2 on mak, too much to link to examples.

Good reads list I like here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65929#p65929

So wacky theory time. Seven is an indy. They are the only ones referring to 3p as a possibility and all the underline bits above to me are hints that way.

I think they decided to have fun being a 3p and are going for manipulating the players as much as possible and having fun without worrying about win con.

Knowing laser I think a standard indy wouldn't be in the game so am guessing it might be something like "thunderdome against a mafia member and win" .

Where do you think I’m being manipulative? Additionally what would be the function of providing 3p hints as a 3p? One of the lines you quoted was me reminiscing about George’s scum play in a previous game.

Going from "Mak townlean" to voting Mak and back to "Mak townlead" is rather funky.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 11:29 am But he should still care about day 1. I can see the logic but not sure I agree.

It's certainly not ironclad, that was more of a thought I had than a solid theory.

somitomi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:42 pm Going from "Mak townlean" to voting Mak and back to "Mak townlead" is rather funky.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 11:29 am But he should still care about day 1. I can see the logic but not sure I agree.

It's certainly not ironclad, that was more of a thought I had than a solid theory.

Well at the time the option was vote mak - town lean or vote seven - town. Then did re read and changed my seven read

Seven wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:22 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:25 am Seven

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=64954#p64954

So Seven kind of predicted the day 1 elim in his 1st post.

I'm coming back to this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=64971#p64971 at the end and thos one
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65134#p65134 and this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65918#p65918

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65140#p65140 power looks true foe the vote aspect. Nk aspect is TBD.

Lots of focus early day2 on mak, too much to link to examples.

Good reads list I like here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65929#p65929

So wacky theory time. Seven is an indy. They are the only ones referring to 3p as a possibility and all the underline bits above to me are hints that way.

I think they decided to have fun being a 3p and are going for manipulating the players as much as possible and having fun without worrying about win con.

Knowing laser I think a standard indy wouldn't be in the game so am guessing it might be something like "thunderdome against a mafia member and win" .

Where do you think I’m being manipulative? Additionally what would be the function of providing 3p hints as a 3p? One of the lines you quoted was me reminiscing about George’s scum play in a previous game.

Manipulative is hard to pin down but it was a kernel of thought around seven would love to predict day 1 elim and be right and would work to make that happen and it went from there.

More mentions of 3p as it subconsciously is more at the forefront of your brain as your a 3p.

My time management this game and this weekend in general has been awful, genuine apology to the town for griefing this game basically

I was very defensive/combative for a reason, I was trying to deliberately flail a little bit to see who was opportunistic about pressure on me because I have a crazy swingy ability and was hoping blood in the water around me would bring out the sharks. I havent completed my re-read yet and Im out of time to continue with gambit play so Im going to just drop the high risk high reward strat and full claim so yall can decide what you want me to do because its selfish for me to think I know better than the wisdom of the crowd here when Ive been shitting it up all game

Im Gale, Wizard of Waterdeep (was pogging when I rolled him because I LOVE the lords of Waterdeep boardgame lol)

My ability is Netherese Burst. Its a day action that triggers if I am eliminated during the day phase. I can kill one slot when the ability triggers. I can make my choice during twilight or pre-set it during the day incase Im absent for twilight. I currently do not have a choice selected. The wording uses "may" so I believe it to be optional. I do not intend to use it unless there is some kind of consensus that I should. The reason I am not unilaterally deciding to use it regardless is because I would be a massive hypocrite using it this phase and risking an instant loss because if I get miselim'd, miss my shot, and then theres a successful NK, that results in 2 town and 2 scum left which is gg no re

Im going to finish my reread today, hopefully during my lunch break which is in 90 minutes, and Ill get back to you all on what I think the solve is. Fwiw, even from what little Ive reread of D1, in addition to the last couple pages that I skimmed, I no longer think EGW/seven is a real possibility. I definitely did not see EGW 180ing on seven like that let alone saying its me and seven lmao

I also find it really, really ironic that seven gave me shit for "WIFOM" arguing that I wouldnt ever NK JC, when seven then turns around and argues they would always NK town!ran for meta reasons, like come tf one blatant rules for thee not for me nonsense

I think there is almost 0 chance there is an indy in this game, its too small, Ive always thought it was 7 v 2

Sevens power is 100% compatible with being scum btw specifically because of the "non MELO phase" restriction, I dont think they are indy

Seven is the town still allowed to vote "no elim" now that you've used your power or must it be one of us?

Nvm reread laser's post, has to be one of us