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Eido where is your head at?

Slammed at work at the mo so will probs have to jump online later on tonight.

My head's thinking about you or Mak. It comes mainly down to POE. I don't think it's going to be Somi based on his EOD1 votes and the way the Night kills have happened, and overall think it's unlikely to be Phillip based on just gut really. Like the way he's so transparent with not knowing what to do, and just voting Boom anyway makes me think they're not working well together.

So yeah out of you / Messie / Mak I would say Messie has given me more consistent town pings and I'm unconvinced Scum!Boom & Scum!Messie play such an overt game. Feels super risky.

So it leaves you & Mak by POE. Leaning more Mak at the moment. I say let's all come online tonight and have it out

Quick post as I may not be around that much this evening. I dont think its Mak, been too towny and too random for boom to swing at mak and me end of day 2. I'm.convinced its somi with messie 2nd choice.

Eido boom and messie have been playing mafia games together .for at least 10 years so not much is out of range for them if they were buddies.

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:24 pm Re reading through Boom's posts with hindsight this looks really bad for Somi, with Somi at the bottom of the list but actually voting somewhere different. Also it's the sort of vague read of messie I would expect from a buddy as well.
[snip]

You're discussing only BoomFrog's side of interactions between us, can you maybe talk about what you think of my posts in this particular context?

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:31 pm Its fair that you think this kind of play is within my range based on what you've seen so far this game, but come on, if I was mates with boom he would have NOTHING to go on, we would have had to commit to the strat early before he had any meaningful information about my capacity as a player and the same for me assessing him. we would have had to commit to an insanely risky all in strategy going in TOTALLY BLIND. thats simply not a rational move

You keep bringing this up and not addressing the point I made here. You could've decided on an all bus stategy someways into the game when it became clear that BoomFrog was up against the wall and by that point it would not have been a leap of faith for either of you.

madge wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:52 pm As someone said upthread, boomfrog is the sort of person to relish the opportunity for an all-out bus attack, so his fight with Sabrar didn’t necessarily mean Sabrar is town.
[snip]
I am very, very annoyed that I didn’t get something prettier as I spent a long time on this. Boomfrog mostly has fought with Makhaira, which leads the objective and factful half of my brain to believe that they are not a scumbuddy team. The fact that town has been at both high and low extremes seems like BF manages to balance his attention well as scum OR that maybe I should have looked for some other metric like questions asked or something IDK.

If BoomFrog fighting Sabrar doesn't mean Sabrar is town, why does the same not apply to Makhaira?
Vote: Makhaira
for now. I'll be around for the next two-ish hours.

@somi I don't have tome tonight and wont be online to before deadline. If theres another day will go back to it then.

somitomi wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:48 pm

madge wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:52 pm As someone said upthread, boomfrog is the sort of person to relish the opportunity for an all-out bus attack, so his fight with Sabrar didn’t necessarily mean Sabrar is town.
[snip]
I am very, very annoyed that I didn’t get something prettier as I spent a long time on this. Boomfrog mostly has fought with Makhaira, which leads the objective and factful half of my brain to believe that they are not a scumbuddy team. The fact that town has been at both high and low extremes seems like BF manages to balance his attention well as scum OR that maybe I should have looked for some other metric like questions asked or something IDK.

If BoomFrog fighting Sabrar doesn't mean Sabrar is town, why does the same not apply to Makhaira?

What I meant was that it didn't GUARANTEE Sabrar is town. Of course I could be wrong. But you have to start somewhere, and where I'm starting is that a fight between scum and someone who seems townie otherwise is probably scum vs town and not scum vs town.

As I stated before, something feels off about wam. Boom's weird sort of flip in attitude plus wam's refusal to take a side is interesting. It's something to watch. I'd feel happier voting wam off today but given I'm at L-2 I don't think people are going to be taking orders from me.

Woof
Makhaira
Eido
Phillip
Wam
Somitomi
Grr

Also, I don't know how to bring this up as it's a kind of complicated situation that is specific to my, uh, circumstances. I'm half-convinced that I've been poisoned or visited by an arsonist and half-convinced I've been visited by a fruit vendor (though it's not fruit). In either case, I don't want a town poisoner/arsonist/fruit vendor to out themselves, but you should be able to find my crumb for later use if you look very closely. If I die of poison/arson, then the half of me that believes I was poisoned wants to go on the record and state that Makhaira and Eido are townie and Wam and Somi are scummy.

EBWOP

probably scum vs town and not scum vs scum

You'd think with two sets of eyes on the posts I'd not make so many typos!

@Messie: are you saying two separate things have happened to you?

Vote: Makhaira

I'll try and be here before deadline.

I'm thinking Scum!Boom might have distanced from his buddy for Town points. He knew he was in danger of the yeet after D1, so probably had a chat with his buddy during the night about what to do in the event he goes down. Boom eyes up a few players at the end of D2 (Wam, Mak, Somi), and they do the same back. With how wild this post was with all its connections (viewtopic.php?p=19920#p19920), it could indicate Boom was ready to engage in some sort of theatre/distancing attempt with his buddy.

He lists Wam / Mak / Somi as potential scum, and this feels like an area he could mask the buddy. The hard part is who exactly

Anyway it's late. I'll come back in a few hours and see where to go.

Vote Count 3.3

messie (2): Makhaira, phillip (L-2)*
Makhaira (2): somitomi, Eido (L-2)
somitomi (1): Wam

Not voting: messie

Deadline is in 1 hour

*current plurality elimination

Woof. I’m here.

somitomi wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 5:47 pm Of course BoomFrog's going to try any and all attempts at self-pres, he would be doing the same even if scum agreed to bus. Boom not looking desperate might even give the bus away, so he could not go gentle into that good night. And if he actually managed to wiggle out of it, that's even better, he survived and there's a big fight on record between buddies. There's no reason for mafia-BoomFrog to act like he accepts his fate regardless of what his mate is doing.

Disagree. BoomFrog would be open to a bus if it was a path to winning. I even posted an example earlier for Makhaira:

messie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:41 pm

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:50 am I very much doubt he and his partner were resigned to his elim and committed to a full bus strat

I don’t know you, but I do know BoomFrog, and this is not only something that is very well within his range, it is something he would enjoy. Probably immensely.

If you have time, you can read this.

And I will be coming back to the underlined part of somitomi's quote in a bit.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:31 pm Its fair that you think this kind of play is within my range based on what you've seen so far this game, but come on, if I was mates with boom he would have NOTHING to go on, we would have had to commit to the strat early before he had any meaningful information about my capacity as a player and the same for me assessing him. we would have had to commit to an insanely risky all in strategy going in TOTALLY BLIND. thats simply not a rational move

But how much would you really need to know about any of us, reading the Halloween game might be enough. How did you find this site? It’s not like we’ve been here long. Have you played with or observed any of us play? Because I get what you’re saying, but with a little research I think you could figure out that this is totally a BoomFrog thing to do.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:31 pm yeah Im not trying to make this a meta/RL argument at all, just was literally explaining the context for me having said in the game thread that I was literally pulled away from the game when I intended to be online. as for pronouns I'm he/him! and thank you! its from a favorite childhood book series of mine haha

Oh I’m just saying don’t sweat over RL stuff. All RL excuses are accepted at face value here unless there’s a reason to believe someone is untrustworthy. We have a SPOILER thread for goodness sake.


I agree with this post .

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 10:40 pm thats what I think messie is trying to do, make us as paranoid of a bus as possible so you me and phillip dont get towncred for the boom elim.

No. But perhaps you’ll understand me more after the game.

somitomi wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 11:38 pm The whole thing doesn't seem like some kind of coordinated move on their part, especially with BoomFrog's "huh" reaction and I think if Wam was actually starting the day bussing, he would've stayed put.

Huh? How do you reconcile this with the underlined comment in the first quote above? Or the entire quote for that matter?

Eido wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:12 pm My head's thinking about you or Mak. It comes mainly down to POE. I don't think it's going to be Somi based on his EOD1 votes and the way the Night kills have happened, and overall think it's unlikely to be Phillip based on just gut really. Like the way he's so transparent with not knowing what to do, and just voting Boom anyway makes me think they're not working well together.

What about somi’s content at end of Day 1 clears him, that is so much more townie than Makhaira’s content end of Day 2???

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:49 pm Quick post as I may not be around that much this evening. I dont think its Mak, been too towny and too random for boom to swing at mak and me end of day 2. I'm.convinced its somi with messie 2nd choice.

Nice not-quite-ambiguous LAMIST quip in there.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:49 pm Eido boom and messie have been playing mafia games together .for at least 10 years so not much is out of range for them if they were buddies.

I was just going to request the votals. Its as if someone read my little puppy mind.

Eido wrote: ↑Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:19 am @Messie: are you saying two separate things have happened to you?

One thing two interpretations.

@Eido, why is somitomi town?


The logical half of my brain will vote to self pres. The other half doesn't see the point.

messie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 23, 2022 5:00 am

Eido wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:12 pm My head's thinking about you or Mak. It comes mainly down to POE. I don't think it's going to be Somi based on his EOD1 votes and the way the Night kills have happened, and overall think it's unlikely to be Phillip based on just gut really. Like the way he's so transparent with not knowing what to do, and just voting Boom anyway makes me think they're not working well together.

What about somi’s content at end of Day 1 clears him, that is so much more townie than Makhaira’s content end of Day 2???

Scum!Somi probably doesn't bus that hard on D1 when he had both yourself and Heury listed as viable options that he could have voted for instead. Voting his buddy Boom at that point feels like an unnecessary bus

How hard was that bus??? I think I pointed this out to someone before, but BoomFrog was the deciding vote, not somitomi.

somi could have been on at deadline if he really wanted to, or felt his partner was in danger; he's in Europe.

Right but Somi just comes in and disappears. And Boom tries to swing to Somi at one point, with Somi not being online to save himself. It doesn't look like cooperation to me there

Vote count 3.4

messie (2): Makhaira, phillip
Makhaira (3): somitomi, Eido, messie
somitomi (1): Wam

Another long, nervous day. The crater continued to billow angry smoke as the animals argued over who would next be thrown in.

"It was the swordfish!" cried a chorus of angry bees. "He speared him to death!"

"And left him on dry land? Lies! And anyway I have a sword, not a spear," gurgled the large fish from the small lake she shared with the octopus, the orca, and a swarm of various other smaller fishes.

"Clearly he must have lost in battle to the mighty grizzly bear," commented the red panda. "It is the only explanation."

"While I am certain I could have defeated him," boomed the great bear, "I was hibernating."

The walrus interrupted the proceedings with a large flatulence. "Sorry," the flabby creature muttered.

"Tree pangolin was friends with kookaburra, wasn't he?" suggested the blue crab. "They took a trip to Thailand together last year."

"Me? No!" the tree pangolin shouted, alarmed, "I've never met him. I went to Thailand with mockingbird."

"I'm sure it was him!" cried the crab, "They dropped a mango on me."

The tiny pangolin rolled into a ball in fright, "It wasn't me, I swear!"

"He confessed!" shouted the naked mole rat.

The elephant nodded and scooped up the balled pangolin in her trunk and hurled him into the volcano.

They waited.

Nothing.

Makhaira has been lobbed into the volcano. He was Tree Pangolin, Vanilla TOWN

It is now Night 3. Please submit all night actions by March 24th at 11PM.

yeah sorry guys my hearts just not in this game, jim, good luck have fun

The animals rose with the rising Sun and began to muster at the volcano's edge.

"I have dire news," said the elephant, "The ritual must end soon, and we are no closer to finding a solution. We must find the final killer soon, or the animal kingdom will fall into dark, terrible times."

"Is everyone accounted for?" asked the honey badger.

"Sloth is still missing," replied the mosquito.

"Perhaps sloth killed the King and has fled!" cried the platypus.

"I do not think sloth could have fled the scene," muttered the cheetah.

"Look there!" cried the maraconi penguin. All eyes turned to see the Indian Cobra, partly crushed under a large rock.

"It seems the killer is still at large, we must think carefully, but continue," intoned the elephant.

Eido was killed in the Night. He was Indian Cobra, Vanilla TOWN

Barring interference from power roles, it is MYLO.

End of D4 is March 29 at 11 PM PST

Hi everyone. No idea what my ongoing activity and effort levels are going to be like, given my 9-week-old son. In case anyone's interested re. Phillip - he didn't interact much with his mentor, so there's nothing in the mentor chat that explains anything useful that I can share.

I'm assuming a scum team of 2 with the rest town, or possibly a third-party. This has been reinforced by the MYLO declaration. My analysis follows on from that. I started overnight with some votal analysis, without knowing who scum would kill. My bet going into this was that Eido would be killed, as he was the most obviously townie going into the night, in my opinion.

Day 1:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Sabrar votes messie
Eido votes somitomi
heury votes phillip
Mark votes Sabrar
wam votes Sabrar
mak votes phillip
phillip votes heury
somi votes mak
heury unvotes phillip
heury votes messie

Votals, just under 3 days before deadline:
messie (2): Sabrar, heury
somitomi (1): Eido
phillip (1): Makhaira
Sabrar (2): Mark, wam
heury (1): Phillip
Makhaira (1): somitomi

Not voting: messie, Boomfrog

Eido unvotes somi
BF votes Sabrar
phillip switches from heury to messie
wam switches from Sabrar to messie
Sabrar unvotes messie
somi unvotes mak

Votals, 36 hours before deadline
messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
phillip (1): Makhaira
Sabrar (2): Mark, BoomFrog
Makhaira (1): somitomi
Not voting: messie, Eido, Sabrar

Eido votes heury
mak switches from phillip to heury
Mark switches from Sabrar to heury

Votals, about 26 hours before deadline
messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
Sabrar (1): BoomFrog
heury (3): Eido, Makhaira, Mark
Not voting: messie, Sabrar, somitomi

messie votes heury
BF switches from Sabrar to Eido
Sabrar votes BF

Votals, 12hrs before deadline:
messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
Eido (1): BoomFrog
heury (4): Eido, Makhaira, Mark, messie (L-2)
BoomFrog (1): Sabrar
Not voting: somitomi

Eido switches from heury to BF
somi votes BF

Votals, approx 90min before deadline:
messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
Eido (1): BoomFrog
heury (3): Makhaira, Mark, messie
BoomFrog (3): Sabrar, Eido, somitomi

BF switches from Eido to somi
BF switches from somi to heury

I don't buy the idea that a somi/BoomFrog team would have agreed somi bus BoomFrog that near day end as a distancing measure (without risking BoomFrog). There was no guarantee that one of the people on messie or heury wouldn't have come online and switch their vote onto BoomFrog before BoomFrog eventually placed his vote somewhere useful (for him). If they'd had, then somitomi would have been forced to jump ship or eliminate his scum-buddy. I don't think it's likely a bus because regardless of who out of messie or heury would end up getting eliminated, assuming they did, the scum team would have been confident they could push them for a miselim on D2 instead of BoomFrog. Eido also looked good for similar reasons, although not quite as strongly (there's less chance of 2 votes on Boom becoming a successful wagon, given 4 was the effective target). Conversely, messie looks worse for voting a townie. It's hard to draw anything from wam's vote, if we assume two scum.

I don't think there's much else that can be drawn from the D1 votes without further alignment information, although loosely, I don't like the heury voters because he seemed obv town to me, especially messie who should have remembered heury's previous game, where he felt exactly the same (Eido can be forgiven somewhat for not knowing heury's meta and recent history).

Day 2:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

wam votes BoomFrog
makhaira votes BoomFrog
Eido votes BoomFrog
phillip votes BoomFrog

Votals approx 3 days before deadline:
BoomFrog (4): wam, Makhaira, Eido, phillip (L-1)
Not voting: BoomFrog, Mark_Cangila, messie, somitomi

wam unvotes BoomFrog

Votals a little under a day and a half before deadline:
BoomFrog (3): Makhaira, Eido, phillip (L-2)
Not voting: BoomFrog, Mark_Cangila, messie, somitomi, wam
(no further votes until approx 10 hours before deadline)

BoomFrog votes wam
wam votes Makhaira
somi votes wam
Makhaira unvotes BoomFrog

Votals about 4 hours before deadline:
BoomFrog (2): Eido, phillip
Wam (2): BoomFrog, somitomi
Makhaira (1): Wam
Not voting: Mark_Cangila, messie, Makhaira

BoomFrog switches from wam to Makhaira
Mark votes BoomFrog

Votals about 2 hours before deadline:
BoomFrog (3): Eido, phillip, Mark_Cangila
Wam (1): somitomi
Makhaira (2): Wam, BoomFrog
Not voting: messie, Makhaira

messie votes somi
BoomFrog switches from mak to wam
messie switches from somi to wam

Votals about half an hour before deadline:
BoomFrog (3): Eido, phillip, Mark_Cangila
Wam (3): somitomi, BoomFrog, messie
Makhaira (1): Wam
Not voting: Makhaira

Mak votes BoomFrog

I'm not convinced the scum team would have expected quite such a sudden wagon, especially when messie had been close to being elimmed too D1. I don't think it's impossible for scum!wam to vote BoomFrog out the gate like he did, and it's noteworthy that when wam does revote, he doesn't vote for BoomFrog again. That's minus points for wam. messie and somitomi also don't look great for not being on the Boom wagon, although it's possible wam is scum, in which case this doesn't look so bad. I'm undecided whether both scum would have risked being on the same town wagon (i.e. wam's wagon). Eido looked good still, in my opinion.

I'm not bothering with D3, since with BoomFrog dead by this point, there's no buddy for a scum player to interact with.

Based purely on voting analysis, I think Eido looked great (sadly he died), somitomi looks okay, wam looks less pretty neutral, and messie looks fairly bad.

My gut reads going into the night line up something like this:
Town
Eido
wam
somitomi
messie
Scum

I'd swap this to:
Town
somitomi
wam
messie
Scum

post analysis.

Since we're in MYLO at this point, which means No Elim presumably, although if it's 2-1-1, No Elim may be dangerous. Question: do we mass claim? I'm unsure. My instinct: if you are townie PR AND have a useful result that either incriminates or clears someone, you should claim. Otherwise, you should not claim today, in my opinion.

Now, onto player read-throughs. No idea whether I'll get through all of these (post-flip edit: nope), starting with messie. Summaries in the spoiler mostly for my benefit:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Day 1:

Post 1: Confirm
Post 2: Comments about possible play-style oddities, and responds to Eido on this topic.
Post 3: Greetings to various players. Sabrar timing suspicious. Asks Sabrar why FoS not vote on BF, and keeping FoS on her. Asks heury for reasons for his vote on her. Comments on wam saying she will be hard to read.
Post 4: Wonders why Sabrar cares about how much info she conveys. Doesn't he already have an opinion on her? Thinks Eido should know about her confirmation post talent. Thinks less likely to tunnel, but Sabrar scum read.
Post 5: Agrees with Eido re. Phillip town pings.
Post 6: How does she justify still keeping Sabrar's vote? Answers Eido re. why Sabrar suspicious. Will be considering his content as a whole. Wary of town/scum slips from new player. Sceptical of heury forgetting his read on her. Chat is day/night chat. Hates "if I were scum" posts. Asks Mak to explain meaning of mountainous question. Asks Phillip for reasons he finds her scummy. FoS somitomi & Sabrar.
Post 7: Suspicious Sabrar not asking questions about setup when relevant. Wasn't sure about Sabrar.
Post 8: Only FoSsed two people because she only has two scum reads. Thinks 2 scum likely for newbie game (2 MLs) and LG hosted an 8-2 setup recently. Speculating mountainous dangerous. Asks Sabrar why his vote post RVS. His interaction with somi suspicious. Finds interesting somi not trying to figure things out. Thinks odd wam comments on her scummiest he found so far. Not worried by Sabrar. Discussion about whether Sabrar thinking about teams. FoSses are independent. Needs more from heury. Doesn't vote early and often, taking time to think. Mak is rolefishing. Newbie game means not voting off newbie D1. Phillip can't be allowed to live until D3 as he's a liability. Mak/Eido towniest, Sabrar/heury/wam scummiest. Votes heury as forced choice.
Post 9: Comments on scum identification from confirm posts were joke. Notes Sabrar still has RV on her. Mixed up heury and Mak. Keeps vote on heury due to self-pres. Prefers wam for opportunistic vote. Might be scum with heury or Sabrar.
Post 10: Expects to be changing her vote before deadline.
Post 11: Asks heury and phillip if they have a better reason for voting her.
Post 12: Explains timing of posts/thoughts. Sabrar should know better about her defensive vote. wam vote reasoning weak. Doesn't think scum read OP more than town. Thinks Sabrar is expecting a specific play style from her that doesn't necessarily match reality.
Post 13: Wonders when she would comment on scum theater/TvT etc. Doesn't think BF is scum. somi scum reads and vote convenient [note vote is on BF]. heury attitude is NAI.
Post 14: asks for votals.
Post 15: no chance of moving wagon to somi for scummy reads list, so voting tactically. Prefers heury over BF although neither scum read. Scummiest are somi, wam, believes somi scum implies wam scum, reinforced by reads list. Mark, BF towniest. Asks BF about somitomi read thoughts. Can't be convinced to switch to BoomFrog.
Post 16: Thinks somi vote on BF wagon and form 3-way tie was to avoid being on same wagon as wam.
Post 17: somi can't vote heury because his scum read (messie) is voting him.

(Analysis written post-flip FWIW): I ran out of time before finishing this note taking, and got as far as end of D1. I don't have any real issues with the FoS comments that seemed to be most people's reason for finding messie scummy, and some (most?) of her points against Sabrar do seem legitimate (messie is neither solely bessie nor Madge, so play style will differ). Skimming my notes that I made during the night, I don't really see her interacting much with BoomFrog, and she doesn't give much reasoning for why she finds BoomFrog as townie as she did (second towniest in her ordered list towards day end). This, combined with her voting record, doesn't paint her in a good light. I also feel like her read of heury is wooly at best, and it almost feels like an excuse to have him scummier than BoomFrog so that she can justify having her D1 vote where she did (heury, not BoomFrog).