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messie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:41 pm

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:50 am I very much doubt he and his partner were resigned to his elim and committed to a full bus strat

I don’t know you, but I do know BoomFrog, and this is not only something that is very well within his range, it is something he would enjoy. Probably immensely.

If you have time, you can read this

not saying its not in his range, and I appreciate the meta info, but Im straight up not convinced that that is what he and his mate were doing. booms effortposting EoD2 very clearly demonstrates he legitimately believed he could swing the vote off him and he could save himself for atleast another phase. thats just not what an all in bus looks like in my experience

messie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:41 pm

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:50 am sorry no I'm not "re-presenting" it. Literally my entire EoD2 content is my case against you. you and boom were like open buddy D1 and you didn't seem too keen on his elim last phase. I think the case is very straightforward and I quoted all the posts I think connect you two

Ok got it. I replied to all your concerns about me, and you refuse to re-evaluate. So what you’re saying is YOU HAVE NOTHING.

yes, because I posted it in a different day phase, it literally ceases to exist. and because you merely replied to my arguments, they are categorically disproven and wrong and I must re-consider them. because that's totally how logic works /s

trying to frame me not being persuaded with your replies to my points against you as "refusing to re-evaluate" and saying that merely because you offered a response to my points against you that those points are no longer valid and that I have "NOTHING" is an extremely disingenuous and scummy framing of my position

messie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 5:41 pm

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:50 am where are you getting the impression I am certain I will be around day 4? I said that I had different plans based on different possible NKs, obviously one of those permutations is myself being elim'd in which case my meaningful choices as a player come to an end

If you were realistically considering that you might be the night kill tonight, you would not have suggested ending the day so quickly, without discussion.

yes because you know me so well right? and how important self pres is to me as a vanilla town right? this is just hilariously presumptive and comes off as blatant projection of your own internal self pres priors

I've made my positions clear. I have explained unequivocally what my PoE is and who I think should be eliminated. I don't need to live for the rest of the game to have contributed to a town victory meaningfully. I don't expect to go to endgame every game, nor should any player who understands what it actually means to play to wincon. I don't have much else to say with the info we have available and I think I already have the solve with you/boom. If I'm wrong, fine, the town will have the info they need to correct course in later phases, with or without me. I literally do not care if Im the NK tonight because an NK on me wouldn't silence me or prevent me from sharing any of my thoughts on the game that I think would be helpful to other townies solving

Ok so, I’ve been thinking about the choice of night kill.

It could be argued Mark & myself have occupied a really similar spot this game. We’ve both been widely considered Town, and by D2 have had similar reads/votes. I feel like scum could categorise us similarly in the group chat as a result of this (e.g. players who could be put in the Town core).

So scum choosing Mark for the kill could mean there was something different about their content from mine that was worth cutting off, possibly?

Mark's reads are here:

Mark_Cangila wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:47 am Town

Eido - Eido seems kinda meh to me D2? Their play doesn't stand out a lot, but that may not mean much. I'm going to trust my D1 feeling here, especially when D2 has been so quiet. However, I see how this could also be scum coasting.

Philip - all that needs to be said on Philip has kinda been said. There's absolutely nothing to go off of. The fact he's up here is more of a reflection of my lack of strong town reads right now than my strong scum reads.

Somitomi - The switch from coasting and kind of aggressing Boom to suddenly voting Wam? Absolutely baffling. I can't really make heads or tails of it, this is too much coasting for scum either.

Mak - Scummy-neutral for me. Boom's case makes sense, but a lot of it could be different styles on different forums. What seems more damning to me is the reaction - it looks desperate and wild, flailing for something to say, which I don't love at all. If boom is town, I think Mak shoots up in scuminess.

Wam - This is a new addition, and a weaker one, but the Mak vote is bugging me. I don't care how convincing logic might be, you don't usually switch near day end because of analysis by your scumread. Either Wam is just tired, or there's some weird wam+boom team.

Messie - Feels very defensive of themselves, and also Boom. This would normally be a scum tell but with experienced players it just turns into a whole bucket of wine. Imo, it feels different than what I've seen from Bessie at least, and notable enough to seem weird (I'm sorry Madge, but I don't 100% remember your style that much - I don't know if I played with you in as many games as with Bessie).

BF - I've detailed my reasons throughout the thread. The Eido vote at the end of D1 makes sense to me if there's a Messie+Boom team, but not really with a Wam+Boom team. What's odd to me though is just the way he's acted towards Messie, and vice versa - it doesn't make much sense to me. Either way, I don't see a great non-scummy explanation for a lot of Boom's actions - maybe extreme self-pres, if that?

Scum

And mine are here:

Eido wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 12:13 pm My head’s somewhere here:

Mark / Phillip
Wam / Makhaira / Messie
Somi / Boom

The biggest difference is Somi, who is a few spots higher in Mark's list. Scum!Somi probably chooses to kill me over Mark, which again gives me a good vibe. If we couple this with the way Somi voted for Boom at the end of D1, then I feel a case is starting to build up that he is probably not scum.

The other positions in both lists are similar. Mark is way more forthcoming with their insight though, and this could be why Scum decide to kill them off, right? Like their reasons on Mak / Wam / Messie feel more damning, which makes me think someone in this group saw Mark as a potential threat. I'm thinking about these players at the moment.

Yo @Makhaira you able to revisit this post for me? viewtopic.php?p=19910#p19910

messie wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 2:03 am Eido, you didn’t reply to this . Please answer.

Yeah, so my question came really from our chat here:

messie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:35 am

Eido wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:31 pm They made a post in the Night. Scum!Phillip is probably somewhat aware of the boundaries of the game, considering they have Osie as a mentor. If the scum plan is resorting to dirty tactics like encouraging Phillip to fake a Night post, I think the team gets scolded by Osie (who is big on the ethics of the game).

I don't think this plan is happening. They just look consistently a bit lost, which makes me think they're probably not scum.

I think this is poor reasoning for putting Philip at the top of your town list.

You said my reasoning on Phillip was poor here, and that was it. You didn't really give any other insights. This made me think about what your strategy was for solving him.

Eido wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 9:29 pm Yo @Makhaira you able to revisit this post for me? viewtopic.php?p=19910#p19910

I was just pointing out that boom's town read of me for my TMI bait after giving me so much shit for it seemed disingenuous and like he was trying to disengage to avoid a bigger conflict with my slot, heury I was scum reading for other reasons and in the moment I didn't feel that that read on booms move there was strong enough to change votes because I still felt heury was slightly scummier at the time

im glad you brought up this interaction though between me and boom because this should make it clear as day to everyone that I legitimately did not trust boom and thought he was trying to dodge me. me vs. boom would never have been a thing if I hadn't made such a big deal over the way boom handled my attempt at TMI bait. if you think boom undermining my legitimate attempt to bait people was scum theatre, especially that early in the game, you are intensely paranoid like im sorry thats borderline playing against wincon

I like the parsing of the NK thru an eido v. mark lense that eido is doing, seems like legitimate analysis and strengthens my town read, like he's actually trying to solve here

I agree that mark's reads will be a good papertrail to look at if its not just the simple and obvious boom/messie, Ill try to reread his stuff by tomorrow, im super busy the rest of the night

okay you want some opinions
according to day 2 voting
BoomFrog (4): Eido, phillip, Mark_Cangila, Makhaira
Wam (3): somitomi, BoomFrog, messie
Makhaira (1): Wam

somitomi and messie voted the same way as boomfrog, so this suggests one or the other or maybe both are on the same team

day 1 voting
messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
Eido (1): BoomFrog
heury (3): Makhaira, Mark, messie
BoomFrog (3): Sabrar, Eido, somitom
somi voted for boomfrog, making a strong case for him not being in league with him.

Woof! I’m back! Is anyone barking about me?

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:20 pm if you don't see that effortposting for what it is, that being boom genuinely trying to wiggle out of an elim despite looking AWFUL after the sabrar and heury flips, and sabrar essentially begging us to elim boom next, you are missing the forest for the trees

You can read it that way. But think creatively. What else could BoomFrog be up to, in spending the last part of the day arguing with you. Hmmm...

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:20 pm I am not from this site. I have never been scum with boomfrog before. you legitimately believe I'm just going to put enough faith into someone whose skill level I have absolutely no concept of to commit to an all in bus strat from D1? I have zero motive to do something like that when there is much better EV just playing a normal scum strat and driving miselims. setting up a scum partner for an all in bus strat that I I have no experience with and no way to know their overall skill level is as close to playing against wincon as one can get. from what you all are saying, it seems like boom is a strong player, and I think his play in this game generally reflects that. like he almost got us to come around on him despite all signs pointing to him at EoD1. if you are saying that was elaborate theatre between me and someone I've never played with, you're being being straight up paranoid

Is that a WOULD I DO THIS AS SCUM post???

And from what I have observed of you, I totally believe you are good enough to pull off a scum play like that.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:20 pm as for me being on before deadline, I never said I had no opportunity to change votes earlier. what happened was I legitimately believed I would be able to be in the thread engaged with the game for atleast the last full hour before deadline to have last minute discussion and make my final decision. I got roped in to a group activity and lost track of time and only barely made it back before the deadline. I am very serious when I say it was purely by luck that what I was doing wrapped up before the deadline and I was able to get back to my computer before it hit

On this site we tend to be pretty relaxed about RL issues and take people at their word. Also, sorry for not asking before, but what are your preferred pronouns? And by the way, I like your knife avatar.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:34 pm yes, because I posted it in a different day phase, it literally ceases to exist. and because you merely replied to my arguments, they are categorically disproven and wrong and I must re-consider them. because that's totally how logic works /s

No. You must reconsider my content because you are town, and above all else you want to find the truth. /s

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:34 pm yes because you know me so well right? and how important self pres is to me as a vanilla town right? this is just hilariously presumptive and comes off as blatant projection of your own internal self pres priors

IS THAT A TOWN CLAIM???

And what you are trying to do doesn’t work with me.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:34 pm I literally do not care if Im the NK tonight because an NK on me wouldn't silence me or prevent me from sharing any of my thoughts on the game that I think would be helpful to other townies solving

Interesting that now you say a NK won’t silence you and you seem to be soooo committed to creating and sharing content, when in your second post of the Day you tested the waters to end the Day early with a quick hammer.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:27 pm if you think boom undermining my legitimate attempt to bait people was scum theatre, especially that early in the game, you are intensely paranoid like im sorry thats borderline playing against wincon

Noting this because I may want to come back to it.

phillip1882 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:57 pm somitomi and messie voted the same way as boomfrog, so this suggests one or the other or maybe both are on the same team

Please ask your mentor to explain what he thinks of your reasoning here.

Wam wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:00 am @makhira why phillip lock town I agree with you and eido.

Makhira I dont think i saw an answer to the above?

Re reading through Boom's posts with hindsight this looks really bad for Somi, with Somi at the bottom of the list but actually voting somewhere different. Also it's the sort of vague read of messie I would expect from a buddy as well.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

boomfrog wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 5:54 am Quick list since I have other obligations tonight.

Town:
Mark - Good townie vibe and active scumhunting. Good reads list. I recall Mark being more passive.
Heury - Good reads list, actually paying attention and trying to scumhunt.
Makhaira - I think I like the rolefishing actually. It was a bad idea, but they are obviousely very familiar with how to play mafia and I think as scum they would not have tried it. I think it was a sincere but misguided attempt at scumhunting.
Phillip - I don't want to excuse the complete lack of effort, but the brazenness feels townie. Newbie scum would be more worried about fitting in and not screwing up. town!Phillip doesn't care that he's sticking out.
Wam - Vote on messie has some merit. Town vibe from his willingness to go after Messie, since scum have often been caught in those jaws.

messie - One townie ping early game but their reads list is concerning.
Sabrar - feels off, but I'm willing to give him more time to show his townieness. Would really like to see a reads list. Especially his read on me.
Eido - very townie vibe, but clearly an experienced player. I expected them to lead town but their lack of commentary on my "conflict" with Sabrar feels very deliberate.
Somitomi - complete lack of effort
Scum

Vote Eido


@Somitomi please put some effort in or you may end up the compromise elimination.

Again looks to me like boom making sure there is some distance from Somi, incase of their elim.

boomfrog wrote: ↑Wed Mar 09, 2022 6:09 am Vote Somitomi

I'd rather not yeet Heury or messie but if it comes down to it I'll move to Heury.

[/spoiler]

Weird frustration here from Boom towards Somi.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

boomfrog wrote: ↑Mon Mar 14, 2022 2:21 pm @Somi can you please have some more opinions please. You are messing up my analysis.

Here end of day 2 boom again has Somi at the bottom but again no real push for an elim. viewtopic.php?p=19930#p19930 (link because post is very long!). It's very much framing the discussion as Somi is scum but I am in no way going to push for an elim of them. Key for distancing.

I'm Sold Vote Somitomi

Reads:
Town
Eido
Makhira





Philip






Messie


Somitomi
Scum

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:27 pm im glad you brought up this interaction though between me and boom because this should make it clear as day to everyone that I legitimately did not trust boom and thought he was trying to dodge me. me vs. boom would never have been a thing if I hadn't made such a big deal over the way boom handled my attempt at TMI bait. if you think boom undermining my legitimate attempt to bait people was scum theatre, especially that early in the game, you are intensely paranoid like im sorry thats borderline playing against wincon

Ok cool. This is the 1st time we've played so I'm unfamiliar with your strats.

It could be argued Sabrar made Boom a thing by starting his wagon. So the buddy might have felt pressure to address it in some way. They might agree Boom is bad to fit a consensus but vote elsewhere to get the miselim, right? This is why I'm thinking about why you didn't join the wagon even tho you were thinking about joining.

You able to talk more about what you think the wincon strat is? Like what you think scum are/aren't doing this game?

Yo Wam I keep coming back to this post.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:41 pm So it's been a long day and I had to read booms case a couple of times. I find the team analysis a bit winey but I say that about most team analysis. No self analysis as well I could argue for quite a few teams with boom in.

On the Makhira analysis that does stack up and I have found them sitting back a bit. Hence the earlier push on mak and others., I'm concerned the boom lynch is too easy and so far this game scum have been sitting back laughing.

However, despite having said all that , Im nervous about moving off boom and coming to regret it. Basically head says mak gut says boom. As this is my last post before deadline I'm happy with either boom or mak. So I'm going to vote mak as that leaves options for those around at deadline.

vote Makhira

It looks pretty cursed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCKQgJ0Eqlg

You said earlier you wanted to carry Sabrar's torch and go for Boom, right? This post drops everything Sabrar set up. Also looks like your scum Messie read disappears. Suddenly you trust Boom, who is also thinking you are scum.

Basically I don't get the post.

Why didn't you question Boom's intentions here if he was thinking you were scum?

Tomato sauce post

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:20 pm somi, I get where you're coming from, I've lost to all in bussing before too, but I've been against boomfrog since literally the beginning of the game. I have done nothing but attack that slot and the only town ping I ever got from the slot was the "huh" reaction to Wam's crazy vote, which I then reconsidered and was correct in determining that boom was in fact scum and still genuinely shocked and how wam interpreted his self pres push against me and wam. if you don't see that effortposting for what it is, that being boom genuinely trying to wiggle out of an elim despite looking AWFUL after the sabrar and heury flips, and sabrar essentially begging us to elim boom next, you are missing the forest for the trees

Of course BoomFrog's going to try any and all attempts at self-pres, he would be doing the same even if scum agreed to bus. Boom not looking desperate might even give the bus away, so he could not go gentle into that good night. And if he actually managed to wiggle out of it, that's even better, he survived and there's a big fight on record between buddies. There's no reason for mafia-BoomFrog to act like he accepts his fate regardless of what his mate is doing.

I am not from this site. I have never been scum with boomfrog before. you legitimately believe I'm just going to put enough faith into someone whose skill level I have absolutely no concept of to commit to an all in bus strat from D1? I have zero motive to do something like that when there is much better EV just playing a normal scum strat and driving miselims. setting up a scum partner for an all in bus strat that I I have no experience with and no way to know their overall skill level is as close to playing against wincon as one can get. from what you all are saying, it seems like boom is a strong player, and I think his play in this game generally reflects that. like he almost got us to come around on him despite all signs pointing to him at EoD1. if you are saying that was elaborate theatre between me and someone I've never played with, you're being being straight up paranoid

You misunderstand me, I don't think you started the game with bussing on your minds (in fact part of my point is exactly that you seemed quite reluctant to vote BoomFrog on D1 despite your attacks on him). I think bussing became an option somewhere around D2 start. Sabrar had somehow caught BoomFrog early and self-pres voting Heury only bought him limited time, because there's no way that doesn't look terrible after the flip. When you cane online you saw several people already waving their pitchforks at BoomFrog so you decided to hop in and get out on top from losing your mate.

also if I was committing to a full bus, full distancing strat, I would not have unvoted. doing that literally give other slots a much higher chance to be miselimed given this game's plurality rules. If I wanted max distance credit from boom, I would've gone all in and speakheaded his elim unwaveringly. I was very clearly hesitant and unsure of what to do at EoD2 and was actively thinking about what to do and was trying to get some EoD engagement to help me sort.

Messie has already pointed out the inherently tainted nature of statements like this, but I have to point out that just like with BoomFrog's effortposting, some degree of uncertainty is exactly what bussing mafia will try to feign so they don't tip their hand.

phillip1882 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 10:57 pm okay you want some opinions
according to day 2 voting
BoomFrog (4): Eido, phillip, Mark_Cangila, Makhaira
Wam (3): somitomi, BoomFrog, messie
Makhaira (1): Wam

somitomi and messie voted the same way as boomfrog, so this suggests one or the other or maybe both are on the same team

day 1 voting
messie (3): heury, phillip, Wam
Eido (1): BoomFrog
heury (3): Makhaira, Mark, messie
BoomFrog (3): Sabrar, Eido, somitom
somi voted for boomfrog, making a strong case for him not being in league with him.

So at the end of all this, what do you think about my alignment?

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:24 pm Re reading through Boom's posts with hindsight this looks really bad for Somi, with Somi at the bottom of the list but actually voting somewhere different. Also it's the sort of vague read of messie I would expect from a buddy as well.
[snip]
I'm Sold Vote Somitomi

What on Earth?

messie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:41 am You can read it that way. But think creatively. What else could BoomFrog be up to, in spending the last part of the day arguing with you. Hmmm...

again I would direct you to read me vs. boom even from early D1, we have never not been thorny to each other except when he offered to town read me and I rebuffed that and correctly scum read him for it

messie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:41 am

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:20 pm I am not from this site. I have never been scum with boomfrog before. you legitimately believe I'm just going to put enough faith into someone whose skill level I have absolutely no concept of to commit to an all in bus strat from D1? I have zero motive to do something like that when there is much better EV just playing a normal scum strat and driving miselims. setting up a scum partner for an all in bus strat that I I have no experience with and no way to know their overall skill level is as close to playing against wincon as one can get. from what you all are saying, it seems like boom is a strong player, and I think his play in this game generally reflects that. like he almost got us to come around on him despite all signs pointing to him at EoD1. if you are saying that was elaborate theatre between me and someone I've never played with, you're being being straight up paranoid

Is that a WOULD I DO THIS AS SCUM post???

And from what I have observed of you, I totally believe you are good enough to pull off a scum play like that.

its WIFOM adjacent but I've made it clear that there are real articulable points we can look here from a meta perspective. me being an unknown in this site's meta DOES have a meaningful impact on EV calculations for high risk/reward strategies like all in bussing. you generally want some level of comfort and actual knowledge of a players depth/range before you do something like that. take it for what it is, but it's not irrelevant and certainly not pure WIFOM

Its fair that you think this kind of play is within my range based on what you've seen so far this game, but come on, if I was mates with boom he would have NOTHING to go on, we would have had to commit to the strat early before he had any meaningful information about my capacity as a player and the same for me assessing him. we would have had to commit to an insanely risky all in strategy going in TOTALLY BLIND. thats simply not a rational move

messie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:41 amOn this site we tend to be pretty relaxed about RL issues and take people at their word. Also, sorry for not asking before, but what are your preferred pronouns? And by the way, I like your knife avatar.

yeah Im not trying to make this a meta/RL argument at all, just was literally explaining the context for me having said in the game thread that I was literally pulled away from the game when I intended to be online. as for pronouns I'm he/him! and thank you! its from a favorite childhood book series of mine haha

messie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:41 am

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:34 pm yes, because I posted it in a different day phase, it literally ceases to exist. and because you merely replied to my arguments, they are categorically disproven and wrong and I must re-consider them. because that's totally how logic works /s

No. You must reconsider my content because you are town, and above all else you want to find the truth. /s

ok the return snark here is fair and warranted but this just isn't whats happening. Its not like I didnt read your points and consider them. I did that, I just don't think your points are compelling and I think you're booms mate and have every incentive to try to shake me /shrug

messie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:41 am

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:34 pm yes because you know me so well right? and how important self pres is to me as a vanilla town right? this is just hilariously presumptive and comes off as blatant projection of your own internal self pres priors

IS THAT A TOWN CLAIM???

And what you are trying to do doesn’t work with me.

yes Im VT. not sure what you think I'm trying? Im not trying anything. you're the one who was telling me what I would and wouldn't do in terms of self pres and I was rightly telling you that you were being presumptive and incorrect as a result

messie wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:41 am

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 8:34 pm I literally do not care if Im the NK tonight because an NK on me wouldn't silence me or prevent me from sharing any of my thoughts on the game that I think would be helpful to other townies solving

Interesting that now you say a NK won’t silence you and you seem to be soooo committed to creating and sharing content, when in your second post of the Day you tested the waters to end the Day early with a quick hammer.

it wont silence me because I've already shared all of my reads and made very clear what I think the poe should be, but Ill post it again at the end of this post to be super clear since you seem in intent on obfuscating what I have and haven't already done

whats with this weird mischaracterization anyway? that "I'm soooooooo committed" to creating and sharing content? I said I wanted to end the phase quick, I never said I was intent on generating heaps of discussion today. what I DID say is that if you all dont want to end the day fast thats fine and Ill chat about whatever you all want, but that I was more than happy to expedite. dont put words in my mouth

ok so anyway full reads list:

TOWN
______

Makhaira
Eido
Phillip
Wam
somitomi
messie

_____
SCUM

wam is only townier than somitomi purely on my read of boom's "huh" post in response to Wams vote with I think was genuine. if they were mates they would have coordinate and boom would not have any ability to be surprised. oscar level scum theatre here if he is the mate but I really doubt it

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 11:04 am

Wam wrote: ↑Fri Mar 18, 2022 11:00 am @makhira why phillip lock town I agree with you and eido.

Makhira I dont think i saw an answer to the above?

voting patterns. phillip just blind sheeping me and bussing his mate is like insane playing against wincon unless he was specifically coached by boom to play up the noobie card just hope everyone forgets about him or some similar insane gamble

Eido wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 2:42 pm You able to talk more about what you think the wincon strat is? Like what you think scum are/aren't doing this game?

I think its literally as simple as this is a low volume game, sabrar was dead and town doc was dead, scum felt in a good position early D2 with a top town PR gone as well as a strong content generator in sabrar. game continued to be low volume, scum we're unsure how to best try to coax a low plurality ML without getting consensus to swing to boom because of sabrar tagging him. it didn't work, boom became a frontrunner, and near EoD boom tried to effortpost his way to survival. it didn't work out and here we are. scum are now trying to spread FUD and convince us that one of the people who elim'd boom is is mate because the game is essentially over if the obv town players who eliminated boom on a pivotal day all form a coalition. thats what I think messie is trying to do, make us as paranoid of a bus as possible so you me and phillip dont get towncred for the boom elim. they already got rid of one of us by NKing mark. see what I mean?

Woof I went to the farmer’s market today and I had an organic dog cookie made with yummy fresh ingredients and not like the squirrels and mice in the back yard. My people get soooo mad when I bring them a dead mouse!


You might say I’ve been single-minded lately, and let’s not go into detail about that, but I wanted to try and do something a bit more objective and factful.

I was intrigued when people were discussing in the recent secret santa that there’s much to be learned from interactions, so I want to share with you my process as I look through boomfrog’s post history to work out how he’s interacting with people.

I’m going to just purely count boomfrog’s interactions with each player (living, dead), and see if there’s any outliers.

Interaction will be mentioning them by name and will be categorised as positive / neutral / scummy / fight, where positive = “Moody makes good points, townlean for now”, neutral = “Conman is putting some pressure on Carlington!”, negative is “Osie’s tunnelling is different from his normal tunnelling and could only come from scum”, and fight is “USN WHY ARE YOU SO TERRIBLE CAN’T YOU UNDERSTAND ME” type of bickering that happens. The line between fight and negative is fuzzy but I think they’re different interactions. Lukewarm stuff (“Seven is making a lot of posts, but it’s the sort of thing I see them doing as scum a lot, that said it could just be them being town trying to save their own skin”) I will mostly put in neutral unless I think it’s really really suspect.

One interaction per post for the most part, unless it’s a long’un. Reads lists will be assigned appropriately.

THOUGHTS:
Boomfrog was initially going into Makhaira for rolefishing but in his reads list Boom said he approved of it.
His D1 read on Eido is weird: “very townie vibe, but clearly an experienced player. I expected them to lead town but their lack of commentary on my "conflict" with Sabrar feels very deliberate.” - despite his obvious voting for Eido, I classed that comment as “neutral” due to it being quite mixed, to give you an idea of how my rating system might work in practice.

As someone said upthread, boomfrog is the sort of person to relish the opportunity for an all-out bus attack, so his fight with Sabrar didn’t necessarily mean Sabrar is town.

Boomfrog seems to only mention somi to say he thinks somi’s scummy, and then only twice on D1. Strange.

His sudden flip to finding me towniest is weird. I wonder if he knew the writing was on the wall and wanted to get me voted off afterwards because of the link and the fact I defended him D1? I feel like that’s the sort of galaxy brain thing Boom would do, but I also know that nobody will take the thought seriously coming from me, so ack.

RESULTS:
Boomfrog all but ignored Mark who flipped town and heavily interacted with both Sabrar, who flipped town, and me, who everyone else thinks is scum.

I am very, very annoyed that I didn’t get something prettier as I spent a long time on this. Boomfrog mostly has fought with Makhaira, which leads the objective and factful half of my brain to believe that they are not a scumbuddy team. The fact that town has been at both high and low extremes seems like BF manages to balance his attention well as scum OR that maybe I should have looked for some other metric like questions asked or something IDK.

I guess Wam, Somi, Eido could all be possible buddies as they’re all in the middle zone. In particular Wam’s vote that refused to take a side on the boomfrog wagon and boom’s sudden scumread of Wam D2 make me suspect wam, personally. Somi had a similar change in opinion, especially when he didn’t actually give REASONS for finding somi scummy on D1. Perhaps it’s a way to have an accurate read on a scumbuddy!Somi without hastening Somi’s yeet by offering unassailable logic? IDK.

His Eido opinion changed, too, in the opposite way (BF stated that the gambit D1 was mostly a gambit and that he’s now confident of Eido’s towniness, so I’m unsure of whether this is important information or not).

HEY, I WAS GOING TO SAY THAT!!!!!

[sorry guys, I won't fix the account snafu for obvious reasons]

ninja'd by messie

I re-read some stuff again with the intention of looking for Boombuddy, but I don't feel like I produced anything. There's not a lot of interaction between Wam and BoomFrog and the only thing sticking out here is Wam suddenly switching to Makhaira, but I can't really point fingers at Wam for finding Boomfrog's case convincing. The whole thing doesn't seem like some kind of coordinated move on their part, especially with BoomFrog's "huh" reaction and I think if Wam was actually starting the day bussing, he would've stayed put. Messie on the other hand has been distinctly protective of BoomFrog for most of D2, but I don't feel like I could add anything to my earlier musings on the topic. Based on my experience with one side of Messie's brain I don't think she'd do this as mafia, but I'm not sure how well that applies.

On a related note, Makhaira's reaction to my theory feels overly defensive, this post especially.

Eido
Wam/Philip
Messie
Makhaira

Eido wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 2:50 pm Yo Wam I keep coming back to this post.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:41 pm So it's been a long day and I had to read booms case a couple of times. I find the team analysis a bit winey but I say that about most team analysis. No self analysis as well I could argue for quite a few teams with boom in.

On the Makhira analysis that does stack up and I have found them sitting back a bit. Hence the earlier push on mak and others., I'm concerned the boom lynch is too easy and so far this game scum have been sitting back laughing.

However, despite having said all that , Im nervous about moving off boom and coming to regret it. Basically head says mak gut says boom. As this is my last post before deadline I'm happy with either boom or mak. So I'm going to vote mak as that leaves options for those around at deadline.

vote Makhira

It looks pretty cursed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCKQgJ0Eqlg

You said earlier you wanted to carry Sabrar's torch and go for Boom, right? This post drops everything Sabrar set up. Also looks like your scum Messie read disappears. Suddenly you trust Boom, who is also thinking you are scum.

Basically I don't get the post.

Why didn't you question Boom's intentions here if he was thinking you were scum?

Because he was thinking I was scum. I had self doubt that my boom push/tunnel/focus was right and if boom flipped town, we were in a real pickle day 3. I read the case it seemed reasonable and I voted. I was also interested if boom really bought into mak being scum and it was a good way to test it.

Messie wise I have found my opinion going up a bit as the game has gone on.

Wam wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 am

Eido wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 2:50 pm Yo Wam I keep coming back to this post.

It looks pretty cursed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCKQgJ0Eqlg

You said earlier you wanted to carry Sabrar's torch and go for Boom, right? This post drops everything Sabrar set up. Also looks like your scum Messie read disappears. Suddenly you trust Boom, who is also thinking you are scum.

Basically I don't get the post.

Why didn't you question Boom's intentions here if he was thinking you were scum?

Because he was thinking I was scum.

??????????????????????????????????

also apologizing ahead of time but I am going to be very busy pretty much all today and most of tomorrow. I should be able to be on atleast for a few hours before deadline though. still think messie is the best play as the most straightforward mate but I could be convinced on somi or wam so if my fellow townies really feel like thats a better move I will play ball, mostly only willing to follow eido if he thinks im wrong on messie

Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:46 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 am

Eido wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 2:50 pm Yo Wam I keep coming back to this post.

It looks pretty cursed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCKQgJ0Eqlg

You said earlier you wanted to carry Sabrar's torch and go for Boom, right? This post drops everything Sabrar set up. Also looks like your scum Messie read disappears. Suddenly you trust Boom, who is also thinking you are scum.

Basically I don't get the post.

Why didn't you question Boom's intentions here if he was thinking you were scum?

Because he was thinking I was scum.

??????????????????????????????????

That is badly phrased sorry. I was generally town read, scum boom when desperate would go somewhere easier than a me and you team. I would have been more suspicious if he had tried to buddy up to me after everything.

I'm voting somitomi?