Trust Fall Mafia - Day 1

[KayJayQueue]

I don’t think I’m voting anyone today but it’d probably be somi if I was forced.

[EGW]

Town [EGW > Somi > Kay > Mak > Bop > Moody > Greedy > Bessie > Deadbananas > Heury] Scum

[EGW]

Can I just say that feels like a very silly reason to put me at the bottom in a game where fading into the wallpaper like I often do just doesn't work as a scum strat because the objective is to get into a trust fall?

Yeah, Mak should revisit your slot I think.

[moody7277]

Ok so we have like a day and a half till deadline, I think everyone should post their #1 pick to trust fall with if we pretend that theres a rule that you MUST offer a trust fall to someone before EOD

Mak

But the confusion didn't happen at game start, it happened near the bottom of P2, by which point the game start post was well out of sight and anyone looking for the playerlist was more likely to see the signup sheet first.

So your conclusion is that I am unfairly scumreading deadbananas due to an honest mistake on their part starting off the game? A lot of their content since then has washed out any initial peculiarities my read on him had.

[Bop]

Current reads on “who would I pull the trigger on trusting if it came to that” In three categories not in a specific order beyond that. Not that I expect to be voting today but also I would nevvvvvver want us to leave it up to random chance. At that point what’s the game? Also Deadbanans here's your top three you wanted earlier.

• Oh boy I love rappelling! (Most likely to trust at this moment)

EGW-He’s doing a lot of real solving and puzzling things out that feel genuine to me. Not that you can’t fake that but it reads similar to the multiball puzzling he did as mentioned before. I’d be willing to trust him, but I can’t imagine he’d trust anyone this early in the game(and that’s helping my read)

Kay: Real read this time, but I feel like Kay has done great at following early logic to where it could get us late game-the talk of scum having incentive to push paranoia at this point was really apt, and she is active but more critically responsive. Willing to defend herself in ways scum may have let go (as while scum can’t fade into the background in this format, I could still see them trying not to have too many confrontations) and again she said she could be trusted and was town

Moody: Is being active and giving good reads-but not trying too hard to lead convos. In this kind of game, trying to be a “lead townie” is more sus than a “reactive townie” and this to me is a good mix of what I’m looking for. Also, feels similarly to last game we played where he was fully mod confirmed town and still able to post.

• Are you sure we can’t get a safety net? (Hasn’t given me big reasons not to trust, but I’m not as sold/waiting and seeing)

Somi: Our bessie theories lined up a lot, and he’s asking great questions overall but not pushing narratives if that makes sense. Yes I've said that abt a lot of people but it's a good sign!!

Mak: I feel this slot is similar to how he was in Tales but critically less aggressive-in this game, though, toning down the aggressiveness is a good sign, as mentioned above. But also wouldn’t put it past him to consider that and adjust accordingly.

Bessie: Probably town but wouldn't act on it today. I think scum wouldn’t be so cautious if she had a get out of game free card. If bessie is scum I’d believe EGW’s theory as most likely but that would be easy to adjust strategies to if it came to it. I think scum when given the opportunity to bounce would take it, not even taking into account “Because it would be funny to end the day in your first post” If she’s around Day 2, she’ll shoot up the list as town for me, but I don’t see any reasons to rush pushing that button.

• I’m perfectly fine on the ground, thank you! (I either don’t trust or wouldn’t trust above most other players so it’s moot)

Deadbananas: Is being incredibly active, but has been vocal about riskier playstyles I inherently disagree with. I don’t know their playstyle super well, but almost seems to be trying to guide conversations in a way that’s more suspicious to me-again, in this game, scum needs the attention. I do appreciate the conversation so I’m glad to have them around,but I can’t see myself falling here.

Heury: Literally couldn’t today anyways, and their initial move is too possible as a “well maybe I’ll get lucky” which reads as more sus to me. He communicates in a jesting but lightly adversarial way that I’m awful at reading beyond that.

Greedy: Mostly the same as above-initial post is far less risky than heury’s but still baiting for a potential early out means I’d never fall with them today. I’d struggle big time getting a read had that not been the case.

[EGW]

Pairs I would be comfortable exiting-

Somi + Kay
Mak + Moody
Bop + Greedy

Ensuring that I don't double up Mak + Kay or Bop + Mak etc, because I think having their insights spread out is more important than losing two insightful players at once.

[EGW]

This game seems difficult for mafia, because they have to town up so much that they become a first or second pick. Yet, they don't have the advantage of choosing who is killed. We have that advantage. We can even designate our own lylo, instead of mafia choosing for us. We just have to be more cautious of being wrong on town two times. So instead of miselims, we have misexits. Now notice how we don't have power roles here, this reminds me of white flag mafia, where you have no power roles, it's just vanilla, but you win after finding 2/3 scum. As you all know, I like to try to solve the game as soon as I can, but I also think it's important we try our hardest to solve in this game due to the risk and basically vanilla environment. There's also a lack of voting, so we don't actually have a paper trail. No competing wagons. Also, do remember the rule that if we don't choose anyone by deadline, there will be a random pair being forced to exit.

[EGW]

I think now is a good time for players that have played this format before to share any optimal town strategies we may be missing or haven't thought of.

[KayJayQueue]

I think now is a good time for players that have played this format before to share any optimal town strategies we may be missing or haven't thought of.

I’ve only played as scum so I never really had to think about it from this side of things. I focused on forcing my way out immediately and I feel the opposite this time. I don’t want to leave yet because I think I can be helpful.

[Deadbananas0]

Nightly post:

reads

Heury - you all know and love this reasoning

Bop - I disagree with alot of what they say, which I really like! Recent reads post was excellent, exactly what I wanted from them. Its clear they've been reading, and put thought into their work, shoots up my list.

Moody - Meteoric rise! Insane pivot! When I started writing this moody was at the bottom of my list, and I was working on a big case about how they were copying my reasoning for some of their town reads. Upon trying to write that, I realized they seemed to come to it genuinely, and the things I thought were similar, were more like I felt brains buzzing on the same frequency. Some posts that also pinged me town:
Immediately wanting to leave is not something I think scum moody would admit so readily here.
explains their strong stance on bessiegate.
last part just really pings me as town I cannot explain why.

Somi - nothing much has changed with them specifically since my last post, appreciated the reads list, lowered because I don't like EGW town reading them, but there are other people I do like more also townreading, so balancing out.

Bessie - >rand, should just be clear by day 2.

Kay - not much has changed since my last read, looking forward to them getting the responses they are looking for. minor + for liking somi.

Mak - nothing has changed since last read, still want to be in thread at the same time as them.

EGW - Besides other posts on this topic, I don't like their recent reads list. Kept promising it would take time, I assumed it was time to write for long reasoning. Their bessie positioning is insane to me, I don't think its reasonable to just want to never vote Bessie or Heury, I think scumEGW saw townHeury's gambit pay off, and is trying way to hard to make it have no value. The positioning on Moody and Greedy also feels generic to me, sumting ran's reads felt original. But I also dislike their only original read so Anyway, people will probably disagree with me on this read, and I'm trying not to tunnel, I don't think EGW plans to leave anytime soon, so not too pressed about it, more worried about their top towns hiding a scummate, but trying not to let that influence me too much.

Greedy - 0 things have changed since my last read

On fading into background vs standing out:
Accuse me of bias for how I've playing, but im going to come out against the consensus again on this one. I think its a totally valid scum strategy to chill in the background this game, there is no risk of chillers being normal voted out day 1, which often happens in most games. Instead they can let a few obv town people pair up, and let other louder town draw attention and make mistakes, as any town is likely to do, and point to that in the endgame. Just my two thoughts.


Gonna make a quick reads list aggregate as best as I can from different peoples lists, I'm just gonna do a 3 points for top 3, 2 points for middle 3, 1 point for bottom since people have different formats, if people have better suggestions lmk, This is just from Mine, Bop's, EGW's, Somi's, Heury's, Mak's and Moody's reads list, not taking account if any of the reads have changed since those, I'll try and update this when new reads lists come out

reads list aggregate

Kay - 18
Bessie - 17
Moody - 14
EGW - 14
Bop - 13
Somi - 12
Mak - 12
Heury - 9
Greedy - 9
Deadbananas - 9

[Deadbananas0]

oh also EGW, feel free to ask that question you had. I think I am post tunnel now.

[EGW]

Deadbananas: I never said I'd give reasoning, however if you want to ask about any particular read you are welcome to. I generally take a lazier approach with my reads lists earlier on and my game winning reads come at a time where I am more confident. The longer time was also due to just waiting on content from others.

[EGW]

TLDR: Vote analysis + post analysis = Heury prob town. No paranoia on the slot because only Bessie can trust fall them today.

I noted that Heury this game has a much different tone compared to his town game I mentioned earlier. Not only that, I just find his move to be scum indicative, it only would be helpful to scum. Can you elaborate on the underlined?

[EGW]

The above post is a re-post.

[EGW]

Bop - I disagree with alot of what they say, which I really like! Recent reads post was excellent, exactly what I wanted from them. Its clear they've been reading, and put thought into their work, shoots up my list.

I would be curious to see what you disagree with and why. Also curious why you haven't discussed your disagreements with them yet.

[EGW]

Somi - nothing much has changed with them specifically since my last post, appreciated the reads list, lowered because I don't like EGW town reading them, but there are other people I do like more also townreading, so balancing out.

This doesn't seem to be a valid reason for lowering your town read on Somi. Yet, I'll ask. Why does me townreading them lower them in your mind? How do you feel about my reasoning for my Somi read with that in mind?

[KayJayQueue]

I start my extreme weekend of work tomorrow so the last time I can probably have much input this day phase will be tomorrow, probably tomorrow night. I can’t make promises for Saturday and that’s our deadline. If there’s anything specific anyone wants me to address, please just bring my attention to it.

[EGW]

I start my extreme weekend of work tomorrow so the last time I can probably have much input this day phase will be tomorrow, probably tomorrow night. I can’t make promises for Saturday and that’s our deadline. If there’s anything specific anyone wants me to address, please just bring my attention to it.

Mostly curious on your reads when you have the time.

[Deadbananas0]

Re EGW:, sorry for missing the reposted original post, don't know how that happened.

On Heury

Heury's vote is locked, someone can only leave the game if they trust fall each other. Out of everyone in the game, Heury is by far the most likely to still be around tomorrow, outside of scum bessie town heury. Unless Bessie heavily indicated they were planning on voting for Heury, there is no real reason to be worried about them today. I don't have to vote them, be worried about what if they vote me, or be worried about if someone else votes for them visa versa, where as those are all considerations for everyone else in the game.

On your reads list, whats your thoughts on Kay, Mak, and Bop?

On bop

Below my reads I disagreed on their main take about background, reactive, leading play.
I also generally have disagreed on risk reward, which they and I have both talked about, and they mention in their read of me, not worth bringing up again.
I may have more questions later, busier tonight, just trying to get the readslist out and do the aggregation since I think that will be more helpful to everyone.

I feel my reason on somi is valid, mafia has incentive to push out a teammate, similar reasoning to you linking me and Heury. Your reasoning is fine, I agree on it, that's why Somi is still a town read.

Generally, we should start trying to track people who are willing to vote today btw, I know Kay and EGW have indicated as not willing.

[EGW]

On your reads list, whats your thoughts on Kay, Mak, and Bop?

[Post, Post, Post, Post]

I find Kay to be insightful, and I don't see a sign of trying to power wolf. That is half of my read, the other half is meta that I'm using from Mak and Greedy. Especially Greedy, who seems to have avoided responding to Kay and has not popped back in, which is odd. I do want to know their reads because I want to see where they stand.

[Post, Post, Post]

On Mak, I like his post describing that votes are always alpha strikable, and giving his assessment on Heury and Bessie's alignment from the vote lock in. I also like him asking Kay a question to sort her, because they have played a few times before so I would expect him to do that. I also like that he reminds us of the deadline and mentions not wanting to rand at deadline.

[Post, Post]

On Bop, I liked that he mentioned he had a town tell he kept close to his chest. I found that town-indicative, don't think Scum would think to say that. I also liked that he let the thread breathe, I feel his mafia self would be a bit more unfair with his reads earlier on and tunnel, compared to our last game. Bop also sees how your desire to flip Bessie is risky and you don't seem to see that, and I think it's because you are scum and can only see it from a scum perspective, while I and Bop see it from a town perspective.

[EGW]

I may have more questions later, busier tonight, just trying to get the readslist out and do the aggregation since I think that will be more helpful to everyone.

Ok, I will hold you to it.

I feel my reason on somi is valid, mafia has incentive to push out a teammate, similar reasoning to you linking me and Heury. Your reasoning is fine, I agree on it, that's why Somi is still a town read.

I would agree if Somi didn't seem townie individually. I scumread Heury, yet you townread Somi. I'm not sure that makes sense. Especially since you don't seem to have a problem with their reads.

[Deadbananas0]

EGW, say Heury hadn't snap voted, and we magically fall together and both reveal town, where do you look next? Who do you reconsider? I want to get a pair we can agree on, even if others disagree.