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Wam wrote: ↑Sat Dec 07, 2024 7:47 pm

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Sat Dec 07, 2024 6:15 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 4:22 pm

Hey Wam, where's your head at right now?

Thinking we should have posted less early game as I re read.

Lol! I agree, I wonder whose fault that is...

*Shifts uncomfortably*

Ok wedding is over I fly back today and should have re read done for final day monday

I also realized that I should have targetted you last night anyway adum just so you could have confirmation of my doubling ability even the the game you be over before you would get the benefit because youd have atleast received the notification that I targetted you, though I guess theres some risk of it potentially unlocking some new power for you if you are in fact the hawk king that could have been immediately available and game throwing for me. Would've helped to check if Wam actually RBd me too. My bad on the misplay

Ill check in tonight after my flights. Whoever is town, now is the time to show me that WIM

Question to both of you: do you know for sure that town is the chrono gardeners and why or why not

@ Adum and @ Mak

About half way through my re read. One quesiton for both of you:

Hypothetically would a 8/2/1 game with alternate kills be balanced?

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 3:21 pm Question to both of you: do you know for sure that town is the chrono gardeners and why or why not

I think that all chrono gardeners are town but I don’t think all town are necessarily chrono gardeners. I don’t think Madge and Sabrar would make it that simple.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 3:19 pm Ok wedding is over I fly back today and should have re read done for final day monday

I also realized that I should have targetted you last night anyway adum just so you could have confirmation of my doubling ability even the the game you be over before you would get the benefit because youd have atleast received the notification that I targetted you, though I guess theres some risk of it potentially unlocking some new power for you if you are in fact the hawk king that could have been immediately available and game throwing for me. Would've helped to check if Wam actually RBd me too. My bad on the misplay

Ill check in tonight after my flights. Whoever is town, now is the time to show me that WIM

Ya, you got my idea.

There's no hawk king in the game, Madge made it clear in the day end flavor when I hammerrd moody:

madge wrote: ↑Sat Nov 23, 2024 4:55 am The Hawk King is not here. He has already slipped between seconds, vanishing into the labyrinth of time he so meticulously mapped. His party is still in motion, though, a waltz of paradoxes and suspicion. The air hums with tension as accusations pass like flint against steel.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 3:21 pm Question to both of you: do you know for sure that town is the chrono gardeners and why or why not

Town is not the Chrono gardeners because my flavor doesn't mention them at all. I'm just a party goer. I made that point when explaining why I thought Fredd was Indy and he mentioned them as well as previously mentioning them for Indy candidates.

It's possible that some town are Chrono gardeners, now that they're flipped, Fredd's post seems to imply that.

And I'm gonna be annoyed if either of you two's flavor DOES mention being affiliated with them cause you really should've given that information yesterDay when I pointed it out.

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 9:28 pm @ Adum and @ Mak

About half way through my re read. One quesiton for both of you:

Hypothetically would a 8/2/1 game with alternate kills be balanced?

Possibly, but it's not what's happening here. The only way we have an Indy is if it's 8-3-1, in which case, hope they're town compatible.

Every mafia flip has them as the hawk king's servants and the Bessie kill flip makes it clear the Hawk King's servants killed her.

madge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 3:41 am
The Hawk King’s servants had sent a message: they’re still here. They’re still angry. And they’re coming for you.

I've been rereading and trying to go back to mech, but the thing that's tripping me up now is Thea's theory about how the mafia could have shared one shot factional powers not tied to any individual, now that I know it wasn't self serving.

Cause at this point from my POV, Wam had to NK me N1 or it was a ninja. Wam has to have delivered the kill on Fredd/Thea or Mak had access to a strongman with a proven role.

Or maybe it's all too convenient to theorize that mafia picked the perfect powers to not be caught N1 and stopped last night, but mafia reading the room that I'd be a popular target and taking precautions makes sense. Mafia strongmanning a potential Indy if they have it makes sense.

Let me ask you this, do either of your role flavor suggest Chrono gardeners?

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 1:05 am Let me ask you this, do either of your role flavor suggest Chrono gardeners?

No, but I think the 3 JOAT Doctor Who's are a different grouping under the town banner.

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 10:42 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 9:28 pm @ Adum and @ Mak

About half way through my re read. One quesiton for both of you:

Hypothetically would a 8/2/1 game with alternate kills be balanced?

Possibly, but it's not what's happening here. The only way we have an Indy is if it's 8-3-1, in which case, hope they're town compatible.

Every mafia flip has them as the hawk king's servants and the Bessie kill flip makes it clear the Hawk King's servants killed her.

madge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 3:41 am
The Hawk King’s servants had sent a message: they’re still here. They’re still angry. And they’re coming for you.

I'm worried that you are putting too much stock into flavour but also worrying I'm not using the flavour enough!

Wam wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 9:50 am

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 10:42 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 9:28 pm @ Adum and @ Mak

About half way through my re read. One quesiton for both of you:

Hypothetically would a 8/2/1 game with alternate kills be balanced?

Possibly, but it's not what's happening here. The only way we have an Indy is if it's 8-3-1, in which case, hope they're town compatible.

Every mafia flip has them as the hawk king's servants and the Bessie kill flip makes it clear the Hawk King's servants killed her.

madge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 3:41 am
The Hawk King’s servants had sent a message: they’re still here. They’re still angry. And they’re coming for you.

I'm worried that you are putting too much stock into flavour but also worrying I'm not using the flavour enough!

Seven Shared this earlier in the game which I think backs up what I'm saying.

Seven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:45 am I disagree. Madge has the same philosophy as me as not being able to solve the game through flavor claims. In Stranger Things Halloween for example, town was mixed with villains and good guys. For example, I was Vecna, Somi was Max and we were both town doctors.

You two have more experience with each other than I have playing with you. To that end,

@ Adum, as scum how much does MAk bus?

@ Mak, as scum how much does Adum bus?

21 hours ish left

I have 10 pages left but I want answers on my questions above before I post

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 9:28 pm @ Adum and @ Mak

About half way through my re read. One quesiton for both of you:

Hypothetically would a 8/2/1 game with alternate kills be balanced?

eh, it would be playable but I think unbalanced for anti town, they would be too week IMO

Weak*

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 9:28 pm

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 3:21 pm Question to both of you: do you know for sure that town is the chrono gardeners and why or why not

I think that all chrono gardeners are town but I don’t think all town are necessarily chrono gardeners. I don’t think Madge and Sabrar would make it that simple.

do you have something you can ground this claim in or is this pure speculation based on your expectations of the mods?

Deadline is in 15 hours and 45 minutes from this post. I will be available and online for live communication in about 6 hours when I get out of work and will be staying up for about 6-8 more hours from that point. 2 AM mountain time is my hard limit. Wont be able to post much until im out of work though. Hopefully see you both around then!

Makhaira wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 6:13 pm

Wam wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 9:28 pm

Makhaira wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 3:21 pm Question to both of you: do you know for sure that town is the chrono gardeners and why or why not

I think that all chrono gardeners are town but I don’t think all town are necessarily chrono gardeners. I don’t think Madge and Sabrar would make it that simple.

do you have something you can ground this claim in or is this pure speculation based on your expectations of the mods?

Combination of claims, my flavour if I squint at it and mod expectations.

I should be around for the next 3 hours or so. Then back online in 12 hours or so.

So this is the first post done on the laptop rather than phone! I make no promises that the grammar and spelling will be any better though!

As a starter, whichever of you is scum has done an amazing job!

Game State Thoughts

So I was wondering if there was any possibility of 8/2/1 being the original setup with the last minute player making it 9/2/1. Lots of mentions early game from multiple town players it could be multi ball. I.e. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78382#p78382
Initial gut feel was 9/3 but the bit that makes me hesitate is that 8/3 would have been a bit scum sided although, that could explain why town feels OP. I think that 8/2/1 as the original setup swapping to 9/2/1 is possible.

I have tried to look at Adum and Mak through both lenses.

I have tried to split my notes into play reads and mechanical reads. 1st section is play reads.

Adum Notes

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Chill reaction to Mak’s vote, but Adum is good enough to fake this.

Moody’s day 1 read list, https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78604#p78604 would Moody be bold enough to stick a buddy top of the list.

I’m trying to be neutral about the amount of focus on me Day 1 from Adum.

Adum has both flipped scum as neutral here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78764#p78764 almost aggressively neutral which could be trying to keep options open on teammates.

THis is a weird post under pressure day 1 https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78995#p78995

This looks like distancing end of day 1 https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79064#p79064

And here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79089#p79089



Day 2
This to me is the key for solving Adum.

Looking back this could be bulletproof SK

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 2:31 pm I'm genuinely depressed about this, I'm sure I played my role absolutely fucking perfectly and that's why there wasn't a kill last night. Only to find out I'm in a bastard game.

Other scum option is that Adum was a godfather as per https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79491#p79491

This is intesresting given Somi’s flip

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:04 pm Hey Somi, I think you should say something.

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 12:57 pm
(I'll add that BP is pretty common for indies in my experience)

Could be TMI about an Indy Role.

This push here on Somi is unlikely to come from buddy Adum, unless it is rbus. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80082#p80082

This could be keeping options to flop off Somi https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80200#p80200

This votals is interesting, still on me https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80238#p80238

THis is my paranoid read

Theallieza wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:33 pm
I am leaning toward a situation where we only have two mafia, somi and moody, and one serial killer, probably Adum.

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=81139#p81139 This running me up to level with moody looks bad in hindsight but maybe some OMGUS in that.

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=81246#p81246 Here Adum hammers Moody, could have tied it up at that point but couldn’t have swung to someone else. I can’t decide if this is the most towny play ever or the most bussy bus play ever. Or in the case of indy adum this is a great way for town credit, irrespective of Moody’s flip.

I think that the alpha strike comment here was telling. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=81688#p81688 I think it was Adum with a 4 step plan to winning, shoot seven, no elim, shoot thea + Fred, elim me.

Adum;s obsession with thea and fred being indy really comes across as slightly odd from a town perspective think it’s scum adum worrying about how town biased the game is.

Mak Notes

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Entry into the game is bold if scum, not having read, just throwing the vote out there.
Moody’s day 1 read list, https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78604#p78604 this is where I would expect Moody to put a buddy in the middle and vague. But TBH Mak had posted 1 post at this point so maybe null.

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78708#p78708 Mak is vauge on Somi and completely misses Moody. Ironically I think Scum MAk would ensure their buddy was in the post so leans town on Mak.

Mak getting wound up EOD 1 with the worst is more on the town side.

Day 2 the hard push to quick hammer adum is probably too bold for scum Mak.

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79357#p79357 Here has both the flipped scum in the middle

Moody rating Mak as -1 feels null https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79506#p79506

Interesting, pushing Bessie hard over me, Somi Moody here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79672#p79672

Push here on Somi https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80104#p80104 again unlikely to be a buddyg, or big bus?

This looks good for Mak, could easily swap to me here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80238#p80238 and secure my elim and save somi with little pressure for it.

Interesting defence of Moody https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80251#p80251

Good point from Santy

Santygrass wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:14 am In this moment I think there should be one scum between bessied and Wam, so waiting to see the info they bring.

Mak should be cleared in most scenarios? (Somi copped them)

But paranoia says that Mak and Somi are buddies and Somi actually copped someone else?

Hedging on Moody here? https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80743#p80743

THis is a good push on Moody and I don’t think comes from Moody’s buddy. (lost the link but I can find it if needed)

This push to Moody looks good as well https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=81142#p81142

Moody was pushing Mak all day 3.

Tmi? https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=81400#p81400

Don’t think Scum Mak has the attention of pushing me to speed hammer santy here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=81442#p81442

Mak’s day 4 play is good,

Mechanical Analysis

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Actions I complied starting from Thea’s post here Https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80714#p80714

Thea - Mason (N1 - none, N2 Track Santy)
Fred - Mason (N1- none, N2 Watch Wam)
Seven - JoaT 1 (N1 cop on Adum, N2 parrot on bessie N2 RB on Moody, N3 watched Fred)
Wam - JoaT 2 (N1 watch on Adum, N2 cop on Thea, N3 Doc Thea N3 Parrot Seven N4 no action, N5 RB Mak)
JC - JoaT 3 (N1 target Adum???, N2 target moody???)
Moody - Backup (N1 inherit Traffic cop + ???, N2 roleblocked)
Adum - Bulletproof Double voter (No Targets)
Santy - Even Doctor + Odd Bodyguard (N1 ??? - N2 target Adum, N3 Seve)
Mak - Motivator (N1 target Seven, N2 target Wam, N3 Seven, N4 Seven)
bessie - Publishing Cop (N1 target Adum, N2 target Adum, N3 Makhira)

N1 either Mak was the NK target with a ninja or there was no kill.
N2 Kill didn’t come from Moody so either buddy or factions.
N1 Adum must have been either town or a godfather (2 separate results)
N3 Makhira town or godfather. If scum have one shots as guessed could have been well were shooting bessie so lets use it. But seems odd I was expecting to be copped. So would likely have to be inherent and don’t think Motivator + Godfather is likely.
N5 Kill required either strongman or must have come from Adum

Answers on Night actions for MAk

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

N1 watch on Adum, I wanted to get information whilst saving more powerful actions for later.
N2 cop on Thea was concerned about being wrong and wanted to confirm my towncore
N3 Doc Thea - wanted to protect town core
N3 Parrot Seven - I knew Seven would use watcher or doc and this would either save seven or help identify their killer
N4 no action - didn’t feel RB would help and wanted to save it for the endgame
N5 RB Mak - was trying to split between Mak and Adum

Other comments

I feel like I was left in the game to get to this situation, where the godfather can easy push my elim and have felt that way since seven got NKd.

The phrasing aligned with Mafia. Versus just “Mafia” has my paranoia meter pinging about something weird being in game.

Adum seems determined that Mafia is Hawk King supporters and only Mafia. This feels a bit odd to me I think it's v easy to read to much into the flavour. You could also easily have mulitple hawk king supporting factions.

Conclusions

From Play

• Adum is more likely than Mak to be partners with Somi
• Mak could easily have saved Somi and didn’t
• Mak could have easily saved Moody day 3 and didn’t.
• Adum could have saved moody but would have been out on a limb a lot more given timing and impact of double vote.
• I think Adum had a 4 step plan to winning, shoot seven, no elim, shoot thea + Fred, elim me.
• I think that Adums conviction with Thea and Fred being indy was coming from a scum, oh god town can’t be that strong perspective.

From Mech

• So N1 either, adum was targeted by the NK with a Ninja or there was no NK.
• N1 Adum must have been either town or a godfather (2 separate results)
• N2 Kill didn’t come from Moody so either buddy or factions.
• N3 Makhira town or godfather.
• N5 Kill required either strongman or must have come from Adum. I think the kill coming from Adum is much more likely.

I think there are two scenarios likely.

1) Adum was on a team with Moody and Somi. In this scenario they got a double vote and possibly other benefits (godfather?) for not shooting N1. As a team they then put a lot into setting adum up at the end to sweep it. Keeping me around as the final mis elim.

2) The game was set as 8/2/1 with the last player being added very late. With alternating mafia (odd), SK (Even) kill. Mafia shot adum N1 with a ninja. In this the SK is a godfather and 1 shot bulletproof. Mafia had a ninja kill. So that balances all the investigative powers. With Moody RB’d N2 means a Somi Moody team works. I would also balance this by having the kill swap to every night for either faction for balance. The flavour could easily be explained by both being different factions supporting the Hawk King at different time points.

End result

Mak doesn't work as a SK so: I think it’s 10% odds Mak is playing an aggressive bussing scum game, 50% odds it’s godfather Adum as mafia on a team with moody and somi and 40% chance of SK Adum. So I’m going for Adum as my choice, will vote in about 9 hours.

Questions from Me

@ Adum why are you not just 100% it’s me today given you have been pushing me all game?

Offtopic

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Seven wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:47 pm

Seven wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:39 pm

Seven wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:33 pm I see. That was the last piece needed I believe. Wam, Moody, Santy are the scum team I believe.

Are you sure on moody? I don’t think he fits.

Not really, I was just kind of spewing madness as I’m liable to do.

I had not realised at the time this was seven talking to seven.

Wam wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 10:05 am

Wam wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 9:50 am

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2024 10:42 pm

Possibly, but it's not what's happening here. The only way we have an Indy is if it's 8-3-1, in which case, hope they're town compatible.

Every mafia flip has them as the hawk king's servants and the Bessie kill flip makes it clear the Hawk King's servants killed her.

I'm worried that you are putting too much stock into flavour but also worrying I'm not using the flavour enough!

Seven Shared this earlier in the game which I think backs up what I'm saying.

Seven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 12, 2024 1:45 am I disagree. Madge has the same philosophy as me as not being able to solve the game through flavor claims. In Stranger Things Halloween for example, town was mixed with villains and good guys. For example, I was Vecna, Somi was Max and we were both town doctors.

That was my discussion with Seven and I pointed out that the stranger things mafia was a doctor and SK mafia so not really comparable, but that was about claims (which she did agree to take into account and even made clear to ask me about mine).

As far as setup info, madge said in AI and I believe in this game that she does take game events into account when writing flavor, the fact that she used the writing style of the short story my character came from for moodie's yeet shows that.

Wam wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 9:45 pm @ Adum why are you not just 100% it’s me today given you have been pushing me all game?

Frankly, I would likely be if Thea flipped third party.

I'm having some difficulty trusting my behavioral reads because I never imagined a town-thea would do that quick-yeet play and they clearly did.

So I'm trying to go back to square one, because yes you are the clearly easy choice from mech and play, but I don't want the easy choice. I want the right choice.

Adum is more likely than Mak to be partners with Somi
Mak could easily have saved Somi and didn’t

I suggested the somi yeet though, they weren't getting attention and it would've likely otherwise been JC.

Adum could have saved moody but would have been out on a limb a lot more given timing and impact of double vote.

I could've easily found an excuse to move back to you and try to convince people, especially after Seven moved back, which is consistent with my read of thea making me doubt you were scum.

I think Adum had a 4 step plan to winning, shoot seven, no elim, shoot thea + Fred, elim me.

Seven had me as town by this point. She also was suspicious of Thea and you so it wouldn't make sense for scum me to specifically murder her.

However, the actual logical reason she died wasn't because of her views, it was simply because she had a doc remaining. This especially makes sense if scum already failed a shot.

I think that Adums conviction with Thea and Fred being indy was coming from a scum, oh god town can’t be that strong perspective.

Thea gave a strong behavioral argument about their play surrounding somi and moody which made them being Mafia very unlikely. Even given life-linking a 4 person team in a 12 person game is incredibly strong and they simply didn't play like that. Worth noting that Seven also was suspicious of the possibility that thea was on a different team than moody and somi though she clearly didn't agree with my view that the flips being mafia rather than a specific team means it's not multiball.

So what are your thoughts Mak?