Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D8]

[AdumbroDeus]

long and the short of it I dont think thea is scum based on this claim, like there is no reason to not let the miselim go through. and if theyre weird survivor lover indies this setup is just kind wack ngl and I think town has already functionally lost baring some weird game theoretic sophistry to convince the scum to NK in a way that kingmakers the town or something, idk. It feels like nonsense headspace to be in and I feel like theres no real way to play to wincon in that space as town so Im not going to consider it.

If you're not gonna consider the actual problem at hand, your reread is a waste of time. They are lover indies, and I'm trying to pull this game out of the fire.

My plan is explicitly to convince scum that their best bet is killing from Thea/Fredd and winning in 3 man eliminate or lose, which conveniently also makes it possible for town to win.

Seven at least suspected it, right before Fredd voted their townread to end the day.

You meanwhile said that you thought we didn't need my optimizations, you were sure the game would end with Santy's death. You were also sure that Bessie was scum which Santy pointed out.

You can say it's the setup all you want, and yes the setup is bonkers. But the setup last year was also bonkers (literally 7-3-2-1), and other people figured it out here so don't give me that lazy "if I lose to the setup, then fuck it" bullshit. Take ownership.

(And this applies just as much if you're the last scum and think you'll just win by NKing them after yeeting town)

[AdumbroDeus]

And to be clear, if they are just masons, even if mafia chooses to eliminate one of us three, my solution for then is we give Fredd and Thea the win by the other two voting for each other since it's obvious who the last mafia is at that point.

It's the threat to make mafia do what we want, but it also covers mafia just refusing to confirm them.

But frankly given their play I don't know how you can possibly think Fredd and Thea are town at this point. Would you at least look at my case against them and try to see if you can find a town POV. Especially Fredd switching on a townread to end the day right after Seven started questioning their thought process.

[AdumbroDeus]

And like, dude, Fredd is talking about how he thought the opening flavor implies town is allied with the Chrono gardeners. It could, sure, but if he had a town role PM he'd know there's no mention of that there and we're just party goers.

[Theallieza]

So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

Okay. Why are you entertaining all of this? You have a town result on me.

Because someone in the game is a godfather and I need to work out who.

Your perspective doesn't make any sense to me here. From the point of view of Town!Wam, you have Townclears on Adum, Mak, and me (and, by extension, Fred). You know that one of these results must be wrong. But I don't understand how you could ever entertain any of this indy speculation about me/Fred from your point of view: If your result is wrong and I am non-Town, then the only possible way I can be such is if I am either scum with somi/moody (which you didn't consider) or the somi/moody faction is dead and we are an otherscum mafia separate from them, and in either case it is imperative that we are yeeted today or Town loses.

The only case where this indy business could possibly work from your point of view is if there are two godfathers, both of whom happened to have been targeted by one of our three cop results... which you've also never suggested you were considering, and I think is such a bizarre edge case that I don't know why you would. Here you seemed to think indy lovers couldn't even be a godfather, and seemed to think it would be Fred for some reason? Which again seems to me to imply that you believe your result is true.

So what doesn't make sense to me is from your perspective, no elimination is never the correct play. Because either Fred and I are confirmed Town and lovers and if we are killed overnight, Town gains nothing, or if we aren't lovers or someone else is killed, then we are just throwing away an elim for no good reason. Or we are full scum and no elimination is always losing. So it is incredibly strange to me that you went into the day thinking no elim was even an option or would think this at any point. I feel like you are trying to mimic Adum's perspective here, but Adum can at least consistently believe that you are scum and I am godfather (or you just lied about your result), but that doesn't work from the point of view of Town!you because you should be accounting for the added knowledge that you are Town. The fact that this does not enter your calculations seems to pretty strongly point to you being scum.

[Wam]

My simplistic read going into is that you and Fred are town lovers. So that would effectively be 3/1 mylo and the play is no elim surely?

[Wam]

I will be around before deadline tomorrow.

[AdumbroDeus]

I will be around before deadline tomorrow.

Deadline is in less than 12 hours.

[Wam]

Yes and its 8pm here and deadline is 8am I.e tomorrow!

[Wam]

Ps will vote before I go to sleep

[Wam]

So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

Okay. Why are you entertaining all of this? You have a town result on me.

Because someone in the game is a godfather and I need to work out who.

Your perspective doesn't make any sense to me here. From the point of view of Town!Wam, you have Townclears on Adum, Mak, and me (and, by extension, Fred). You know that one of these results must be wrong. But I don't understand how you could ever entertain any of this indy speculation about me/Fred from your point of view: If your result is wrong and I am non-Town, then the only possible way I can be such is if I am either scum with somi/moody (which you didn't consider) or the somi/moody faction is dead and we are an otherscum mafia separate from them, and in either case it is imperative that we are yeeted today or Town loses.

The only case where this indy business could possibly work from your point of view is if there are two godfathers, both of whom happened to have been targeted by one of our three cop results... which you've also never suggested you were considering, and I think is such a bizarre edge case that I don't know why you would. Here you seemed to think indy lovers couldn't even be a godfather, and seemed to think it would be Fred for some reason? Which again seems to me to imply that you believe your result is true.

So what doesn't make sense to me is from your perspective, no elimination is never the correct play. Because either Fred and I are confirmed Town and lovers and if we are killed overnight, Town gains nothing, or if we aren't lovers or someone else is killed, then we are just throwing away an elim for no good reason. Or we are full scum and no elimination is always losing. So it is incredibly strange to me that you went into the day thinking no elim was even an option or would think this at any point. I feel like you are trying to mimic Adum's perspective here, but Adum can at least consistently believe that you are scum and I am godfather (or you just lied about your result), but that doesn't work from the point of view of Town!you because you should be accounting for the added knowledge that you are Town. The fact that this does not enter your calculations seems to pretty strongly point to you being scum.

Also if your not lovers claim that now and we can do 2 elims and have a much better chance of winning this.

[Makhaira]

Ok adum so youre saying you want to flip one of thea/fred here and the assumption is that scum will NK the other one between thea and fred out of obligation regardless because if one flips indy then they kill the other partner to prevent a weird kingmaker/parity rule endgame, and if one flips town mason they have to Nk the surviving mason anyway because that surviving partner would be cleared by the other mason's flip and the scum would prefer an endgame with 2 viable miselim targets instead of a 50/50 endgame of convince the surviving mason to go for the last remaining town?

[Makhaira]

Quoting for pings. If you two are life linked (if one of you dies you both die) you need to claim this now. If you are town and dont claim this you are throwing

[Makhaira]

Ill be around at deadline and continuing to reread but yeah whether or not thea/fred are life linked has huge consequences

[AdumbroDeus]

Ok adum so youre saying you want to flip one of thea/fred here and the assumption is that scum will NK the other one between thea and fred out of obligation regardless because if one flips indy then they kill the other partner to prevent a weird kingmaker/parity rule endgame, and if one flips town mason they have to Nk the surviving mason anyway because that surviving partner would be cleared by the other mason's flip and the scum would prefer an endgame with 2 viable miselim targets instead of a 50/50 endgame of convince the surviving mason to go for the last remaining town?

No. I'm saying we have to no elim and use the threat system I gave in my first post to convince Mafia to kill one of them.

If they're Indy lovers, as I believe, we then elim mafia in 2-1 yeet or lose.

If they're actually town masons, the survivor is confirmed.

If mafia night kills town last mafia is obvious and fredd and Thea win regardless of faction.

[AdumbroDeus]

So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies



Because someone in the game is a godfather and I need to work out who.

Your perspective doesn't make any sense to me here. From the point of view of Town!Wam, you have Townclears on Adum, Mak, and me (and, by extension, Fred). You know that one of these results must be wrong. But I don't understand how you could ever entertain any of this indy speculation about me/Fred from your point of view: If your result is wrong and I am non-Town, then the only possible way I can be such is if I am either scum with somi/moody (which you didn't consider) or the somi/moody faction is dead and we are an otherscum mafia separate from them, and in either case it is imperative that we are yeeted today or Town loses.

The only case where this indy business could possibly work from your point of view is if there are two godfathers, both of whom happened to have been targeted by one of our three cop results... which you've also never suggested you were considering, and I think is such a bizarre edge case that I don't know why you would. Here you seemed to think indy lovers couldn't even be a godfather, and seemed to think it would be Fred for some reason? Which again seems to me to imply that you believe your result is true.

So what doesn't make sense to me is from your perspective, no elimination is never the correct play. Because either Fred and I are confirmed Town and lovers and if we are killed overnight, Town gains nothing, or if we aren't lovers or someone else is killed, then we are just throwing away an elim for no good reason. Or we are full scum and no elimination is always losing. So it is incredibly strange to me that you went into the day thinking no elim was even an option or would think this at any point. I feel like you are trying to mimic Adum's perspective here, but Adum can at least consistently believe that you are scum and I am godfather (or you just lied about your result), but that doesn't work from the point of view of Town!you because you should be accounting for the added knowledge that you are Town. The fact that this does not enter your calculations seems to pretty strongly point to you being scum.

Also if your not lovers claim that now and we can do 2 elims and have a much better chance of winning this.

They claimed they've already full claimed.

The issue is their play doesn't match it

[Wam]

vote no elim

[Theallieza]

Quoting for pings. If you two are life linked (if one of you dies you both die) you need to claim this now. If you are town and dont claim this you are throwing

Yes we are.

[Theallieza]

To be clear: We are Siblings (functionally the same as Lovers).

[AdumbroDeus]

Quoting for pings. If you two are life linked (if one of you dies you both die) you need to claim this now. If you are town and dont claim this you are throwing

Yes we are.

Finally. So what's your wincon?

[AdumbroDeus]

And yes, I know the point of claiming siblings is suggesting you're town, but that's BS.

The lifelink takes away the entire reasoning claiming to save Fredd is townie and it makes no sense to hide it this long because that means town has a nasty surprise in terms of available yeets whenever you're killed, as green check marks with no protection. Strong arming your partner into ending the day by killing a townread ESPECIALLY makes no sense when you could've claimed it instead and let town redo their calculus.

Plus, you're claiming masoned siblings with one shot abilities, makes the complaint about my role being convoluted seem hypocritical.

[Theallieza]

Quoting for pings. If you two are life linked (if one of you dies you both die) you need to claim this now. If you are town and dont claim this you are throwing

Yes we are.

Finally. So what's your wincon?

Standard Town wincon.

[Theallieza]

And yes, I know the point of claiming siblings is suggesting you're town, but that's BS.

The lifelink takes away the entire reasoning claiming to save Fredd is townie and it makes no sense to hide it this long because that means town has a nasty surprise in terms of available yeets whenever you're killed, as green check marks with no protection. Strong arming your partner into ending the day by killing a townread ESPECIALLY makes no sense when you could've claimed it instead and let town redo their calculus.

I've already explained my reasoning for yeeting Santy and I stand by it. We were the alternative yeet and it would have resulted in basically a guaranteed loss unless scum was exactly Santy.

Plus, you're claiming masoned siblings with one shot abilities, makes the complaint about my role being convoluted seem hypocritical.

I have a completely standard role with standard modifiers. You travel back through time to activate your power and have some weird mechanics about getting gifts that doesn't seem to track with any other role. No other role we have seen is even remotely similar to yours.

I have a completely standard role with Standard modifiers.

[Freddino18]

Because someone in the game is a godfather and I need to work out who.

That's a slip. You're the Godfather.

[Theallieza]

The lifelink takes away the entire reasoning claiming to save Fredd is townie and it makes no sense to hide it this long because that means town has a nasty surprise in terms of available yeets whenever you're killed, as green check marks with no protection. Strong arming your partner into ending the day by killing a townread ESPECIALLY makes no sense when you could've claimed it instead and let town redo their calculus

Oops, posted before I finished my thought. IMHO claiming Siblings/Lovers is actively detrimental to Town except in this specific situation.

[Freddino18]

My simplistic read going into is that you and Fred are town lovers. So that would effectively be 3/1 mylo and the play is no elim surely?

Holy shit he read our town claim that's so groundbreaking