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Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:31 am**

just did that yeah forgot they updated that rule

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:43 am**

Madge is merciful! She has granted you an extension.

Votals:
Wam - 1 - Fred
Adum - 1 - Thea

Not voting: wam, Adumb, mak

There are 5 players alive, 3 to vote out.

Night 6 falls at a mysterious time, because my Thursday schedule is not set in stone yet (I just realised I might not be able to work from home like normal). It will fall sometime between midday and 6pm China time on Thursday. A countdown timer will happen when I know.

No further extensions will be granted for any reason.

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:02 am**

madge wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:43 am Madge is merciful! She has granted you an extension.

And perfect! Don't forget that!

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:32 am**

Deadline will be at 4pm China time, which is about 2 days and half an hour from now: https://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/6 ... ed-day-end

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:32 pm**

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:59 am Because it was funny and I was under pressure from multiple people

Which people?

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 5:04 pm**

Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:58 am thea and fred, do you think we are in 9v3?

It's looking that way. I can't rule it out but I think it's more practical to find mafia and if the game doesn't end then we can look for Indies.

what are the best reasons not to flip one of your slots to confirm you arent indies and then win in 2v1 endgame if you are both town?[/quote]

Town would lose by force. If you want to try to sort us, it'd be best to try Adum's plan and hope scum goes along with it.

who is the play in me/adum/wam endgame from yalls POV?
[/quote]

Hmm...

I don't really have any reason to scumread you and you have a mechanical clear. If you are godfather mafia, I think you played great and town just has to eat the loss.

Wam I think is the correct play from a mechanical point of view. Every slot is cleared but him, I think he setup balances better with scum having his powers, and the 3 JoaTs having one scum is more thematic. On play, though, there's a lot I like. He feels kinda townie to me, and his usage of powers feels reasonable, and he was pushed by scum on multiple occasions. Scum has been bussing a lot of he's scum. I feel like if he were going into this situation he'd had more of a plan to make progress and Wam seems very listless right now, though on the other hand as a presumptive elim I don't get a sense of urgency to solve either. Watching Adum is odd from scum. Maybe he wanted a plausible reason to be there and see what kinds of roles would target him, I guess.

Adum is like the opposite for me. Mechanically he's cleared in two different ways and any explanation for why he isn't is complicated (GF + something to the explain N1). On play he's been kind of all over the place and feels kinda open wolfy to me at times. I never had the sense he was interested in either the somi or moody elims and was pushing in other directions (though I guess if Wam is scum then he's accuracy looks a little better).

In spite of my present vote, I think I've come around to agree with Fred that the smart play is to trust our results and yeet Wam.

Unvote

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 5:05 pm**

EBWOP fixed quotes

Makhaira wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:58 am thea and fred, do you think we are in 9v3?

It's looking that way. I can't rule it out but I think it's more practical to find mafia and if the game doesn't end then we can look for Indies.

what are the best reasons not to flip one of your slots to confirm you arent indies and then win in 2v1 endgame if you are both town?

Town would lose by force. If you want to try to sort us, it'd be best to try Adum's plan and hope scum goes along with it.

who is the play in me/adum/wam endgame from yalls POV?

Hmm...

I don't really have any reason to scumread you and you have a mechanical clear. If you are godfather mafia, I think you played great and town just has to eat the loss.

Wam I think is the correct play from a mechanical point of view. Every slot is cleared but him, I think he setup balances better with scum having his powers, and the 3 JoaTs having one scum is more thematic. On play, though, there's a lot I like. He feels kinda townie to me, and his usage of powers feels reasonable, and he was pushed by scum on multiple occasions. Scum has been bussing a lot of he's scum. I feel like if he were going into this situation he'd had more of a plan to make progress and Wam seems very listless right now, though on the other hand as a presumptive elim I don't get a sense of urgency to solve either. Watching Adum is odd from scum. Maybe he wanted a plausible reason to be there and see what kinds of roles would target him, I guess.

Adum is like the opposite for me. Mechanically he's cleared in two different ways and any explanation for why he isn't is complicated (GF + something to the explain N1). On play he's been kind of all over the place and feels kinda open wolfy to me at times. I never had the sense he was interested in either the somi or moody elims and was pushing in other directions (though I guess if Wam is scum then he's accuracy looks a little better).

In spite of my present vote, I think I've come around to agree with Fred that the smart play is to trust our results and yeet Wam.

Unvote

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm**

So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

1) Assume adum is correct, thea and Fred are indy and potentially lovers. So it's 2/2/1
Sub assumptions
A) assume they can win with either faction or alone
i) we no elim scum shoot town next day is 1/2/1, it's pot luck whether thea and Fred chose town or mafia. Or scum shoot thea and Fred ends up 2/1/1 or 2/1 depending on lovers. Town can control.
ii) we elim, incentive is for thea and fred to vote with Town as removing mafia removes risk to them (depending on win condition). We must hit in this scenario as either the results are 1/1/1 (not lovers) or 1/1. In 1/1/1 were back to pot luck.

B) They only win with Town or alone
i) we no elim, we either end up in 2/1 or 1/2/1 or 3/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. But in endgame thea and Fred are effectively town so it's effectively standard lylo.
ii) we elim and miss, if scum shoot town it ends up being 2/1 Fred and thea elim scum, and they win town loses (remember town must be alive), mafia loses. Scum shoot Fred or thea (not lovers)ends up effectively 2/1 town wins. Or scum shoot Fred or thea both die ends 1/1 mafia wins.

C) they only win with scum or alone
i) we no elim either end up 2/1, 2/1/1 or 1/2/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. Unless scum shoot thea or Fred we lose.
ii) we elim successfully it ends un in a 2/2 tie. We elim unsuccessfully it ends up 1/1 or 2/1 or 1/1/1 and scum win.

2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim
B) they are not lovers, we should elim as we get two bites at it.

3) Adum is incorrect we are in multiball and it is 3/2

We must elim Fred and thea

It's not a clear cut as I thought going in.

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:38 pm**

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

1) Assume adum is correct, thea and Fred are indy and potentially lovers. So it's 2/2/1
Sub assumptions
A) assume they can win with either faction or alone
i) we no elim scum shoot town next day is 1/2/1, it's pot luck whether thea and Fred chose town or mafia. Or scum shoot thea and Fred ends up 2/1/1 or 2/1 depending on lovers. Town can control.
ii) we elim, incentive is for thea and fred to vote with Town as removing mafia removes risk to them (depending on win condition). We must hit in this scenario as either the results are 1/1/1 (not lovers) or 1/1. In 1/1/1 were back to pot luck.

B) They only win with Town or alone
i) we no elim, we either end up in 2/1 or 1/2/1 or 3/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. But in endgame thea and Fred are effectively town so it's effectively standard lylo.
ii) we elim and miss, if scum shoot town it ends up being 2/1 Fred and thea elim scum, and they win town loses (remember town must be alive), mafia loses. Scum shoot Fred or thea (not lovers)ends up effectively 2/1 town wins. Or scum shoot Fred or thea both die ends 1/1 mafia wins.

C) they only win with scum or alone
i) we no elim either end up 2/1, 2/1/1 or 1/2/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. Unless scum shoot thea or Fred we lose.
ii) we elim successfully it ends un in a 2/2 tie. We elim unsuccessfully it ends up 1/1 or 2/1 or 1/1/1 and scum win.

2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim
B) they are not lovers, we should elim as we get two bites at it.

3) Adum is incorrect we are in multiball and it is 3/2

We must elim Fred and thea

It's not a clear cut as I thought going in.

So I'll give a little more insight into my thought process on this and why I think Fredd and Thea Indy lovers instead of anything else.

I don't think it's masons because of Thea's play, I've gone into depth on these issues, but also Fredd proposed a deal to let themselves be yeeted toDay if Santy was town. I think if they were town they'd be much more likely to just follow through with that and clear the other person so town could figure out the last scum.

I don't think they're another Mafia faction because scumflips were specifically "mafia", I think it's extremely unlikely that Madge and Sabrar wouldn't give a faction name in multi-ball. Also, since the flavor says that the hawk king servants (who the flavor says Somi and moody were) were doing at least the bessie NK and I find it extremely unlikely that a smaller team would have a nascant kill after how frustrated human mafia was with it last year as a larger team, Sabrar and Madge would give that handicap to a smaller team.

That leaves third party and basically the only setup for that which makes sense given their claim is lovers.

As for their wincon, it's obviously not survivors for balance reasons, they couldve full claimed and supported with mafia if at no other time, now.

Plus the obvious third party faction, the Chrono gardeners from the opening flavor, is presented as hostile to the Hawk King. I don't think they're compatible with mafia at all. I think Thea's play makes town compatibility unlikely as well. And there's also Santy's discussion with Madge in Gojoe which reads like a balance complaint that I don't think Santy would be making if they're town compatible.

I do have an out there theory though, I think Fredd has been playing pretty townie (as per Fredd's townie meta) with the exception of the switch to Santy. I guess it's possible they're town compatible but not mafia compatible, but there's a strategic difference of opinion between Thea and Fredd about how to play where Fredd's view is to try to help town win and win via town compatibility and Thea's is that it's too risky and sees sacrificing town as an easier way. In that case, Fredd moving to Santy also makes sense because presumably even if they're town compatible, they lose if they die.

So overall, that's why I think they're most likely town incompatible third party lovers, with an outside possibility they're town compatible. In this case I think convincing mafia that their best option is NKing one of the two is the best choice. And of they are town compatible, I'm genuinely sorry to both of them.

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 11:10 pm**

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

1) Assume adum is correct, thea and Fred are indy and potentially lovers. So it's 2/2/1
Sub assumptions
A) assume they can win with either faction or alone
i) we no elim scum shoot town next day is 1/2/1, it's pot luck whether thea and Fred chose town or mafia. Or scum shoot thea and Fred ends up 2/1/1 or 2/1 depending on lovers. Town can control.
ii) we elim, incentive is for thea and fred to vote with Town as removing mafia removes risk to them (depending on win condition). We must hit in this scenario as either the results are 1/1/1 (not lovers) or 1/1. In 1/1/1 were back to pot luck.

B) They only win with Town or alone
i) we no elim, we either end up in 2/1 or 1/2/1 or 3/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. But in endgame thea and Fred are effectively town so it's effectively standard lylo.
ii) we elim and miss, if scum shoot town it ends up being 2/1 Fred and thea elim scum, and they win town loses (remember town must be alive), mafia loses. Scum shoot Fred or thea (not lovers)ends up effectively 2/1 town wins. Or scum shoot Fred or thea both die ends 1/1 mafia wins.

C) they only win with scum or alone
i) we no elim either end up 2/1, 2/1/1 or 1/2/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. Unless scum shoot thea or Fred we lose.
ii) we elim successfully it ends un in a 2/2 tie. We elim unsuccessfully it ends up 1/1 or 2/1 or 1/1/1 and scum win.

2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim
B) they are not lovers, we should elim as we get two bites at it.

3) Adum is incorrect we are in multiball and it is 3/2

We must elim Fred and thea

It's not a clear cut as I thought going in.

Okay. Why are you entertaining all of this? You have a town result on me.

Posted: **Tue Dec 03, 2024 11:59 pm**

Theallieza wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 5:05 pm I never had the sense he was interested in either the somi or moody elims and was pushing in other directions (though I guess if Wam is scum then he's accuracy looks a little better).

Because I saw them as process of elimination yeets. I haven't been able to wrap my head around either of their thought processes and saw everyone except specific scumreads as more likely town.

If I was scum with them I just had better options, for Somi I could have just never suggested them letting the JC wagon continue or stubbornly stuck to the Wam yeet as an option but instead I chose to unvote to avoid a tie possibility. For moody, I could've easily given a reason to go back to Wam, especially when Seven was pushing the other way and is great at convincing people to follow him.

I never suggested I was leading the charge, but the way I played it was consistent with a town POV towards what they think is a good POE yeet but not their priority yeet. That's why I was specific about the actual actions that I thought didn't make sense as their scum partners.

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 12:19 am**

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim

in this situation, that puts you at LYLO with no additional information. There is no mechanical advantage to doing so

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 12:21 am**

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:38 pm
Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

1) Assume adum is correct, thea and Fred are indy and potentially lovers. So it's 2/2/1
Sub assumptions
A) assume they can win with either faction or alone
i) we no elim scum shoot town next day is 1/2/1, it's pot luck whether thea and Fred chose town or mafia. Or scum shoot thea and Fred ends up 2/1/1 or 2/1 depending on lovers. Town can control.
ii) we elim, incentive is for thea and fred to vote with Town as removing mafia removes risk to them (depending on win condition). We must hit in this scenario as either the results are 1/1/1 (not lovers) or 1/1. In 1/1/1 were back to pot luck.

B) They only win with Town or alone
i) we no elim, we either end up in 2/1 or 1/2/1 or 3/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. But in endgame thea and Fred are effectively town so it's effectively standard lylo.
ii) we elim and miss, if scum shoot town it ends up being 2/1 Fred and thea elim scum, and they win town loses (remember town must be alive), mafia loses. Scum shoot Fred or thea (not lovers)ends up effectively 2/1 town wins. Or scum shoot Fred or thea both die ends 1/1 mafia wins.

C) they only win with scum or alone
i) we no elim either end up 2/1, 2/1/1 or 1/2/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. Unless scum shoot thea or Fred we lose.
ii) we elim successfully it ends un in a 2/2 tie. We elim unsuccessfully it ends up 1/1 or 2/1 or 1/1/1 and scum win.

2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim
B) they are not lovers, we should elim as we get two bites at it.

3) Adum is incorrect we are in multiball and it is 3/2

We must elim Fred and thea

It's not a clear cut as I thought going in.
So I'll give a little more insight into my thought process on this and why I think Fredd and Thea Indy lovers instead of anything else.

I don't think it's masons because of Thea's play, I've gone into depth on these issues, but also Fredd proposed a deal to let themselves be yeeted toDay if Santy was town. I think if they were town they'd be much more likely to just follow through with that and clear the other person so town could figure out the last scum.

I don't think they're another Mafia faction because scumflips were specifically "mafia", I think it's extremely unlikely that Madge and Sabrar wouldn't give a faction name in multi-ball. Also, since the flavor says that the hawk king servants (who the flavor says Somi and moody were) were doing at least the bessie NK and I find it extremely unlikely that a smaller team would have a nascant kill after how frustrated human mafia was with it last year as a larger team, Sabrar and Madge would give that handicap to a smaller team.

That leaves third party and basically the only setup for that which makes sense given their claim is lovers.

As for their wincon, it's obviously not survivors for balance reasons, they couldve full claimed and supported with mafia if at no other time, now.

Plus the obvious third party faction, the Chrono gardeners from the opening flavor, is presented as hostile to the Hawk King. I don't think they're compatible with mafia at all. I think Thea's play makes town compatibility unlikely as well. And there's also Santy's discussion with Madge in Gojoe which reads like a balance complaint that I don't think Santy would be making if they're town compatible.

I do have an out there theory though, I think Fredd has been playing pretty townie (as per Fredd's townie meta) with the exception of the switch to Santy. I guess it's possible they're town compatible but not mafia compatible, but there's a strategic difference of opinion between Thea and Fredd about how to play where Fredd's view is to try to help town win and win via town compatibility and Thea's is that it's too risky and sees sacrificing town as an easier way. In that case, Fredd moving to Santy also makes sense because presumably even if they're town compatible, they lose if they die.

So overall, that's why I think they're most likely town incompatible third party lovers, with an outside possibility they're town compatible. In this case I think convincing mafia that their best option is NKing one of the two is the best choice. And of they are town compatible, I'm genuinely sorry to both of them.

I'm sorry, but virtually everyone else claimed lovers on us. We never claimed that

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 12:22 am**

We did full claim, nobody believed us

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 1:21 am**

Madge is both perfect and merciful!

Votals:
Wam - 1 - Fred

Not voting: wam, Adumb, mak, Thea

There are 5 players alive, 3 to vote out.

Night 6 falls at 4pm China time tomorrow, which is about 1 day and seven hours from now: https://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/6 ... ed-day-end

No further extensions will be granted for any reason.

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 1:29 am**

I didn't say you did. I said the only third party role that makes sense for the claim you made is lovers. Well, same for Mafia but I doubt it for reasons I expressed before.

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 2:10 am**

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:38 pmThat leaves third party and basically the only setup for that which makes sense given their claim is lovers.

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 2:16 am**

Also, at this point I gotta ask: doesn't the opening flavor imply that Town are the Gardeners?

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:08 am**

Theallieza wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:05 pm It was an interesting sort of Rorschach test to see how people interpreted my quotes. By and large I was trying to answer things as straightforwardly as possible within the confines of movie quotes, so it was interesting to see how much ambiguity people elected to see. I was honestly hoping for a little bit more people engaging in my content and trying to understand what I was saying instead of just claiming it was all a mystery. Maybe I was overestimating how easy it was to interpret them because I knew what I was trying to say.

Here's my rough thoughts on where everyone stands so far. If there's anything else specific anyone has been dying to ask of me, I'm happy to answer in detail.

Santy most obviously seemed to go out of his way to interpret my posting in the least chartiable light possible, consistently misinterpreting or misrepresenting what I said. I had them picked as likely scum fairly early in the game as a result... this approach is not townie and although Santy is relatively new to the forum, I expect a player of their calibre to do a better job of parsing my posts than the obnoxiously bad faith approach they chose. I'm noting the Vig claim and don't really care about it as far as alignment is concerned.

I have similar feelings about Seven who I felt of all people in this game should have had a reasonable idea of what I was attempting to do and why. I gave him a bit of pass D1 because he was sick but he was pinging me quite a bit for most of D1 because I don't reasonably think he should have found my play much worse than null. Generally, low-key passive play is a bad look for Seven though. OTOH, I didn't catch this earlier, but this strongly implies Seven doesn't have any chat partners (chat is on Discord not through forum messages), so at worst he is unaligned.

Wam's posting looks very tight and well put together which probably means he is scum this game.

A lot of people were asking me about JC, which, IDK, he has seemed more coherent and solid than any game I have ever seen him in, so I felt that was worth a Town lean. It's possible that he is similar to Wam in that the quality of his posting improves as scum, but it was enough for a start.

I'm waiting on more information related to the night results to parse out what I think of Adum. I have liked the slot for most of the game but Adum is a strong player and I can see them faking it. FWIW, their reaction to the night result still feels townie.

I'm kind of ambivalent on bessie at the moment. I think her reaction to how I've been playing so far is fine, bordering on too generous if anything. I don't really understand her push on Fred, and I think it's interesting that she apparently ignored what was by far the scummiest posts of Fred's (those related to him not reading his role) and focused on more flightly concerns. I think it's possible her SoD post was prewritten which I feel is slightly scum indicative. Putting her on scum lean at the moment.

Mak is super obvTown and I won't hear otherwise at this point.

Somi and moody are kind of on the periphery of the game and I would like to see more from them. I've generally liked somi's play so far and I feel his engagement with me has been authentic. moody is one of those players who is almost always on the edge of my scum radar.

I feel like the bolded is CRAZY if thea is aligned with somi and moody lmao, also why would scum!thea advocate for me like this so early? I feel like it was too early to try to pocket me at this point. Thea elaborate on this point you made here re: scum!wam's posts being tight and well put together

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:10 am**

omg I thought I lost a mega notes post by accidentally closing a tab thank god it recovered

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:10 am**

Seven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:20 am The vibe of this game is quite multibally, or at least neighborhoody. The last Halloween game was multiball, but Madge & Sabrar initially started designing this setup when we were at about 10 players. I'd figure 12 is the minimum for a balanced multiball, and I don't suspect they would have drastically changed the setup when two additional players were added.

I'm just now getting to actually reading btw. I've only skimmed the game up until this point.

this really makes me lean in 9v3. way easier to scale an 8v2 up and 10 player multiball is a little insane

Theallieza wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:46 am I have zero time and no fun quote, but I hardclaim mason. Fred is my partner.

this is an insane claim for thea to make if thea is scum with somi and moody. of course this world requires fred to me fundamentally misunderstanding his role and letting thea get away with calling a neighborhood a masonry, or we are getting some lite bastardish stuff where they are "masons" but actually one is scum or a traitor that doesnt know their mates or something to justify the tainted masonry. I think if thea is scum there is no way they stick their neck out for fred here. she could have just "forgotten" to show up at deadline to let the miselim of fred go through and then hardclaim his mason partner later and give grief to all the slots that pushed him through without giving him a chance to claim, like it would create perfect miselim bait. other than fred, the only other competing wagon was wurst who we now know was a green flip. somi was on wurst a long time btw and adum did make a late push for wurst post the claim with his late vote

long and the short of it I dont think thea is scum based on this claim, like there is no reason to not let the miselim go through. and if theyre weird survivor lover indies this setup is just kind wack ngl and I think town has already functionally lost baring some weird game theoretic sophistry to convince the scum to NK in a way that kingmakers the town or something, idk. It feels like nonsense headspace to be in and I feel like theres no real way to play to wincon in that space as town so Im not going to consider it. I just kinda have to believe we are in a 9v3 and theres no way scum!thea or scum!thea & scum!fred fit into that equation unless the setup is just kind of bonkers tbh and if Im just gonna lose to the setup, fuck it. Im going to play in the design space where I can still actually win. mostly just thinking out loud here as I reread

thea also confirming daychat when town!bessie was suggesting there was no daychat based on mod meta was extremely towny imo, because scum would not want to contradict town speculation on something scum knows is wrong, assuming thea is scum here. scum with daychat would not want town to think they had daychat and would welcome erroneous pushes from town slots suggesting no day chat

Seven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:52 am
AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:51 am Question for people who play with Thea, how likely do you think they'd be to claim their scum partner as a mason?
Thea is smart, it would be very silly to save Fred by claiming Mason here since it would take them both down eventually.

also kind of this is my point said a different way. I would be different if thea was leading and claimed mason and pulled fred in to defend her. But instead its thea sticking her neck out for fred who is about to be quick hammered. I think that changes the dynamic of the claim a lot, Id be much more willing to see a fake mason claim coming from thea when SHE is under pressure, not a mate

so I think if we flip adum and wam we win. I just am unsure of the right order

D1 looks bad for adum ngl. crazy open buddying with somi and moody, tho some of it was really fluffy chit chat about literature. but moody has adum up very towny for basically no reason D1, could see adum coaching mates to open buddy him D1 and look to play off that with a later bus and claim he was a victim of attempted pocketing. not much adum somi interaction D1 tho tbh. Adums shift on to JC late D1 also looks a bit grimy, looking for an excuse to not be on the miselim and claim he tried to right the course of the boat while still letting the miselim go through because its so close to deadline

I generally get the sense that adum is more TMIish, pushing pieces into the places it wants them on the board, whereas wam is kind of picking up random pieces and examining them

also these very late EOD posts regarding the somi slot feel very diff:

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:57 am
bessie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:54 am Some meta for those that don’t know me well. I HATE EARLY CLAIMS!

I’m having a hard time convincing myself to move my vote off someone who’s not actually contributing and doesn’t care enough about the game to vote.

My next scummiest reads are somi and Seven and I don’t think either is happening.
We have 3 minutes sell.me.on somi?

wam feels like they have a hunch here and are looking to another slot they townread for a good reason to validate it, a bid for a read connection and attempt to solve

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:59 am I wouldn't have minded Somi tbh but too late.

this feel opportunistic and an attempt to get distance credit in if there is a somi pivot or this interest from wam and bessie is interpreted by scum!adum to signal the potential for a D2 wagon where he may need to bus. almost literally saying "Id totally vote for somi" but then literally not doing it or trying in any way to make it happen

madge wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:00 am
Final Votals:
the worst - 6 (somi, thea, wam, JC, seven, adum)
Fred - 3 (moody, santy, Bessie)
Thea - 1 (the worst)
Bessie - 1 (mak)

Not voting: Fred

The worst has been voted out. They were Dr Louise Banks, Traffic Analyst, aligned with Town.

EOD1 here. somi on worst, moody on fred. both adum and wam are on the miselim

I think traffic analyst skews toward supporting the mason claim btw. mason would be a "false positive" and makes sense in a 9v3 with actual masons. also scum backup getting analyst would have pro scum utility to help them find and eliminate the masons in a game where masons arent put in a pressure situation forcing an early claim. it would be weird to have a town aligned traffic analyst in a game where they can only hit anti-town factions, which would be the world in which we are in 2 teams of 2 scum multiball or 2 scum and 2 non-killing indy lovers with daychat or w/e. I think analyst makes more sense in the world with actual masons

SOD2:

madge wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:09 am
Nobody was killed in the night.

Jack of all Trades used their [cop] power last night

Jack of all Trades targeted [adum] last night

[Traffic Analyst] has been inherited by the Backup

[Adum] is [non-Town]

Interesting mirroring of claims here between wam and somi:

Wam wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:43 am I have nothing I want to claim right now.

Wam wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:26 am I do not have access to any private chats.

somitomi wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:14 am Quick morning post, I have nothing I want to claim and no private chats.

Im not sure scum!wam wants to help town narrow worlds by offering this unprovoked:

Wam wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:35 am So the fact there is a traffic analyser is a point in favour in my head of the mason claim.

Wild that this post contains discuss of only players present in current endgame, oddly prescient:

Santygrass wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:16 pm Mak, Wam, Fred and Thea all should be clear if Adum flips scum.

Still think is *possible* that Fred and Thea are aligned and from other non town faction. But is paranoia not worth visiting in the current moment at all. First we blast scum away

This post cuts in favor of adum but could absolutely be a bus, adum hasn't even publicly reacted to bessie's result at this point:

somitomi wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 1:28 pm
bessie wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:15 am FOS everyone that voted for the worst.

FOS Fred for all the reasons I have previously stated.

FOS Thea for popping in to save Fred, but not returning to confirm that you have mod verified information that he is town.

That is a lot of fingers for a puppy, aren't you a little paranoid?

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:33 am Well then, my point you refuted earlier still stands

What point are you talking about?
Seven wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:33 pm I see. That was the last piece needed I believe. Wam, Moody, Santy are the scum team I believe.

Curious that your scumtean does not include the one confirmed non-town player

this feels townie-ish, but within scumrange:

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 2:47 pm I don't think Mak would expose himself to being directly blamed like that on my town flip.

Also I'm 99.9% sure scum thought I would wake up dead today, unless the messenger is a different scum faction.

wam, what assumptions did you make here that you no longer believe and why:

Wam wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:24 pm unvote

Sorry realised I hadn't done this.

So out of this cluster we may actually be able to swing it to our advantage.

As stated above there is no way scum seven clears adum. So adum and Seven con town.

More somi bussing?

AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:04 pm Hey Somi, I think you should say something.

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:12 am**

well rip I kinda botched some bolding there, sorry tired af but I think all that is still understandable

im doing a full re-read still pretty much thru D2, gonna try to finish by midday tomorrow to make final call but I just hit a wall tonight. Im going to set some dedicated time aside in about 12 hours to be in thread for about and hour to discuss last minute pitches

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 1:50 pm**

I would like to direct your attention to the fact that Adum is clear via Bessie

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 2:12 pm**

Theallieza wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 11:10 pm
Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies

1) Assume adum is correct, thea and Fred are indy and potentially lovers. So it's 2/2/1
Sub assumptions
A) assume they can win with either faction or alone
i) we no elim scum shoot town next day is 1/2/1, it's pot luck whether thea and Fred chose town or mafia. Or scum shoot thea and Fred ends up 2/1/1 or 2/1 depending on lovers. Town can control.
ii) we elim, incentive is for thea and fred to vote with Town as removing mafia removes risk to them (depending on win condition). We must hit in this scenario as either the results are 1/1/1 (not lovers) or 1/1. In 1/1/1 were back to pot luck.

B) They only win with Town or alone
i) we no elim, we either end up in 2/1 or 1/2/1 or 3/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. But in endgame thea and Fred are effectively town so it's effectively standard lylo.
ii) we elim and miss, if scum shoot town it ends up being 2/1 Fred and thea elim scum, and they win town loses (remember town must be alive), mafia loses. Scum shoot Fred or thea (not lovers)ends up effectively 2/1 town wins. Or scum shoot Fred or thea both die ends 1/1 mafia wins.

C) they only win with scum or alone
i) we no elim either end up 2/1, 2/1/1 or 1/2/1 depending on lovers and who scum shoot. Unless scum shoot thea or Fred we lose.
ii) we elim successfully it ends un in a 2/2 tie. We elim unsuccessfully it ends up 1/1 or 2/1 or 1/1/1 and scum win.

2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim
B) they are not lovers, we should elim as we get two bites at it.

3) Adum is incorrect we are in multiball and it is 3/2

We must elim Fred and thea

It's not a clear cut as I thought going in.
Okay. Why are you entertaining all of this? You have a town result on me.

Because someone in the game is a godfather and I need to work out who.

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 12:19 am
Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 7:04 pm2) adum is incorrect and Fred and thea are town

A) they are lovers, we should no elim
in this situation, that puts you at LYLO with no additional information. There is no mechanical advantage to doing so

Standard play at mylo is to no elim and let scum cut the choice down. We can have a debate post game about when this should apply and not apply bit it makes life simpler for everyone else.

Assume you are town lovers. Assume We no elim you get shot, that means adum (if town) is choosing between me and mak. Mak (if town) is choosing between me and adum and I'm chosing between mak and adum. Which is a much simpler choice.

Makhaira wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 7:10 am wam, what assumptions did you make here that you no longer believe and why:
Wam wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:24 pm unvote

Sorry realised I hadn't done this.

So out of this cluster we may actually be able to swing it to our advantage.

As stated above there is no way scum seven clears adum. So adum and Seven con town.

Assumptions that haven't changed:
scum seven doesn't do that.
Seven an adum aren't paired.

Assumptions that have changed
Godfather is very unlikely role to be in game - I know there's at least 1!
Adum reacts like that if town but not as scumr - I think seven flagged this ages ago as a potnetial godfather reaction. I'm rereading tonight and will link to this post.

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 1:50 pm I would like to direct your attention to the fact that Adum is clear via Bessie

And Seven.

Wam wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:32 pm
Freddino18 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 4:59 am Because it was funny and I was under pressure from multiple people
Which people?

PING

Posted: **Wed Dec 04, 2024 5:09 pm**

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 2:10 am
AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 10:38 pmThat leaves third party and basically the only setup for that which makes sense given their claim is lovers.

I didn't say you claimed lovers here either. There's no functional difference.

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 04, 2024 2:16 am Also, at this point I gotta ask: doesn't the opening flavor imply that Town are the Gardeners?

Omg, I did all that work and you just, tweeted it out.

The opening flavor implies the gardeners are against the hawk king, but the town are just party goers, and if you had a town role PM you'd know that.

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