Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D8]

[madge]

Abe and Aaron hadn’t been the most popular guests at the time travellers’ party, especially once the proverbial fur started flying. It hadn’t just been because they mumbled a lot; nor was it the fact that they occasionally bled out of their ears. It was the cold and calculating way they approached everything.

“I have a failsafe,” Abe explained. “We can go back in time four days, back to when this all began, and prevent it.”

“I’ve already done this four times,” Aaron said. “The first time, you drove Doc Brown off before he could explain the method in his madness. The time after that, I helped you identify that Wowbagger was suspicious when before he had been making it to the end.”

“You can change the past,” Abe agreed. “And given the circumstances, we put our differences aside to help everyone.”

Aaron smiled. His workers were still in that warehouse in Gabon, working away on the giant machine. Nobody would know of his deception, least of all Abe. “Yes, and I have most recently provided myself with a play-by-play of the actions over the next four days. We’ve even worked out the names of everyone who we need to, uh, take care of.”

The Doctor walked up to them, smiling breezily. “Hey fam! How’s it going?”

Abe gave a tight smile. “Ah yes, you’re one of them, aren’t you?”

“One of the many regenerations of a Time Lord? Of course. One of the Hawk King’s followers? No. That’s clearly my villain of the week, and I’m well past my villain years.” She laughed. “I appreciate your help, chaps, but we can take this from here. I had a previous regeneration start coding his sonic to detect evil, and, well, it should be finished by now—” She reached into her pocket, and theatrically seemed to find nothing there. “Okay… that’s unexpected. Or is it….? No, definitely unexpected!” She frowned. “Give me a minute, maybe I left it in the TARDIS…”

She went to the corner where no fewer than fifteen police boxes were, and looked around frantically. “Oh come on girl, you can’t just wander off without me! We’re just a team!” Walking from identical box to identical box, she seemed certain that none were correct.

Somehow, in the confusion of everything, Abe and Aaron were gone, and The Doctor was certainly preoccupied. Other regenerations laughed, or scowled, or had sudden flashes of recognition as a brief flash of memory became unobscured by the Blinovitch Limitation Effect.

Jack of all Trades used their [Doctor] power on [Makhaira] last night

Seven was killed in the night. She was The Doctor, Loud Jack-of-all-trades, aligned with town.

It is now Day 5.

There are 5 players alive, 3 to vote out.


Night 6 falls at 6pm China time on the 4th of December, which is 10am in Reykjavik, 5am in Miami, and noon in Bucharest or in about 4 days, 6 hours: https://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/6216005/day-ends

[AdumbroDeus]

nobody vote yet

Given that was an alpha strike, it's pretty obvious we're in a kingmaker situation with Fred and thea as Indy lovers and one of you as the last mafia.

So let me break down the only way to salvage the game.

To town: take one RL day and then we're voting "no execution". If mafia kills one of us then whichever of us survived votes for the last mafia. If they kill Fredd or Thea, 3 person yeet or lose as standard. If mafia can't or refuses to kill them, we draw. Remember, "no execution" wins in ties.

to mafia: vote no execution with town, then you NK Fredd and Thea. If you kill town, remaining town is voting with Fredd and Thea to help them win. Your best bet is to beat us in yeet or lose.

In case you were thinking of forming a coalition with Fredd and Thea to yeet town and NKing them after like how you helped them alpha strike, the only reason they'd do that knowing they're the obvious NK is because they have some form of NK protection. If it's permanent for both, that means your and town's best case scenario is draw, but if it's one shot the only way you get another crack at it is supporting town's no execution.

Fredd and Thea: if you vote with Mafia against town you're the obvious night kill.

Any Indy that's not Fredd and Thea: if I misread and Fredd and thea are Mafia lovers, than please claim now and put forward your town compatibility case.

To Wam and Mak: I had townreads on you for different reasons going into last day phase but your play yesterDay was so boneheaded on reexamation I don't know which one of you is the last mafia. If you have constructive criticism in regards to my plan I'm open to it, but actually listen to me this day phase.

[AdumbroDeus]

nobody vote yet

Given that was an alpha strike, it's pretty obvious we're in a kingmaker situation with Fred and thea as Indy lovers and one of you as the last mafia.

So let me break down the only way to salvage the game.

To town: take one RL day and then we're voting "no execution". If mafia kills one of us then whichever of us survived votes for the last mafia. If they kill Fredd or Thea, 3 person yeet or lose as standard. If mafia can't or refuses to kill them, we draw. Remember, "no execution" wins in ties.

to mafia: vote no execution with town, then you NK Fredd and Thea. If you kill town, remaining town is voting with Fredd and Thea to help them win. Your best bet is to beat us in yeet or lose.

In case you were thinking of forming a coalition with Fredd and Thea to yeet town and NKing them after like how you helped them alpha strike, the only reason they'd do that knowing they're the obvious NK is because they have some form of NK protection. If it's permanent for both, that means your and town's best case scenario is draw, but if it's one shot the only way you get another crack at it is supporting town's no execution.

Fredd and Thea: if you vote with Mafia against town you're the obvious night kill.

Any Indy that's not Fredd and Thea: if I misread and Fredd and thea are Mafia lovers, than please claim now and put forward your town compatibility case.

To Wam and Mak: I had townreads on you for different reasons going into last day phase but your play yesterDay was so boneheaded on reexamation I don't know which one of you is the last mafia. If you have constructive criticism in regards to my plan I'm open to it, but actually listen to me this day phase.

[AdumbroDeus]

And if the other townie wants to contest my interpretation of events, just look at Gojoe (not the spoilers obviously).

Given that Santy talked about how it would obviously be terrible balance to have 7-3-2 in this game (he's right btw), Madge tagging a post as "please read Santy" seems to be obviously that.

[Freddino18]

I intend to vote against Wam

[Freddino18]

And if the other townie wants to contest my interpretation of events, just look at Gojoe (not the spoilers obviously).

Given that Santy talked about how it would obviously be terrible balance to have 7-3-2 in this game (he's right btw), Madge tagging a post as "please read Santy" seems to be obviously that.

I would like to point out that this is angle shooting

[AdumbroDeus]

And if the other townie wants to contest my interpretation of events, just look at Gojoe (not the spoilers obviously).

Given that Santy talked about how it would obviously be terrible balance to have 7-3-2 in this game (he's right btw), Madge tagging a post as "please read Santy" seems to be obviously that.

I would like to point out that this is angle shooting

I explicitly cleared Gojoe speculation with the mods D1, to explain why your argument that it was Madge convincing you to read your role PM was convincing.

It's a forum tradition.

[Freddino18]

Also Adum why are you trying to lose the game for yourself?

[AdumbroDeus]

Also Adum why are you trying to lose the game for yourself?

Lol! Thea does obtuse better.

[Freddino18]

Well just thought I'd ask because it loses for me too

[AdumbroDeus]

If you don't want town playing to salvage a kingmaker situation, do a better job of hiding you're scum next time.

In all fairness, Thea's the one who slipped. Though, your hop was pretty transparent to a degree that only makes sense if it was yeet or lose or next day was a kingmaker situation, but it was Thea's slips that out you under that threat.

[Theallieza]

I regret nothing. Town needed to check Santy and apparently one other slot; eliminating either of us would have likely thrown the game. I was like 80% sure that he'd flip scum so that much of it was my bad, but I don't think Wam (or Adum/Mak, though I think if either of them are mafia it's already GG) were a realistic elimination last phase.

In all fairness, Thea's the one who slipped. Though, your hop was pretty transparent to a degree that only makes sense if it was yeet or lose or next day was a kingmaker situation, but it was Thea's slips that out you under that threat.

I haven't slipped at all. The "slips" you've seen are NAI stuff that I do all the time and you've just been reading me wrong. We can debrief in post though, it actually doesn't matter at this moment whether your read is correct or not.

I don't hate Adum's plan. Effectively we can treat this as a 4P MYLO situation. Unless the last mafia really believes Adum and wants to claim, I guess. I think Fred is correct that eliminating Wam probably just wins, but I don't mind if playing this one cautiously. Though if we are going to no elim I would really prefer not taking the whole 5 days to make that decision.

[Wam]

I had convinced myself overnight it was seven doing some epic scum theatre.

I want to poke at adums plan more when I have time as I think there are holes in it. But that the conclusion is probably right.

And if the other townie wants to contest my interpretation of events, just look at Gojoe (not the spoilers obviously).

Given that Santy talked about how it would obviously be terrible balance to have 7-3-2 in this game (he's right btw), Madge tagging a post as "please read Santy" seems to be obviously that.

Or it's madge explaining why 7-3-2 is balanced. Or it's madge answering a completely unrelated question. I don't buy the above at all.

[Wam]

As I slowly wake up and my brian starts working question time.

@Adum:

What alignment are you stating thea and Fred are?
Why is 8/2/2 multiball not a consideration in your plan?
If thea and Fred are alive and voting as a block day 6
What was bonehead about my play last day?

@Fred
Why did you hammer yesterday?

[AdumbroDeus]

And if the other townie wants to contest my interpretation of events, just look at Gojoe (not the spoilers obviously).

Given that Santy talked about how it would obviously be terrible balance to have 7-3-2 in this game (he's right btw), Madge tagging a post as "please read Santy" seems to be obviously that.

Or it's madge explaining why 7-3-2 is balanced. Or it's madge answering a completely unrelated question. I don't buy the above at all.

I mean that's the discussion they're likely having with Santy having an issue and Madge explaining the thought process. The combination of context of play and Santy's stated views make it the most likely interpretation.

As I slowly wake up and my brian starts working question time.

@Adum:

What alignment are you stating thea and Fred are?

I'm pretty sure they're Indy and specifically lovers. I think Thea's point about how they'd play certain interactions makes sense with the ability to end the game so early.

Why is 8/2/2 multiball not a consideration in your plan?

It can't be 8/2/2 because Madge announces faction destruction. This came up in last year's game.

The flips have so far been "mafia", in multi-ball we'd expect to have factional names.

What was bonehead about my play last day?

Not paying attention to the issues with Thea's play and while putting Santy into a hammerable range when one of them were off him while those issues were being discussed.

[Wam]

One more @ adum.

What exactly do you mean by alpha strike think I know but want to confirm.

[Freddino18]

Vote: Wam

Adum, while I like your analysis, voting against the Mafia today is the correct play for me and Thea, regardless of our alignment. If we're wrong, it's a tough situation to pull out. If we wait, we are guaranteed to lose. I intend to ask Thea to put Wam in hammer range, then whoever does it is the other Mafia if we're wrong.

[AdumbroDeus]

One more @ adum.

What exactly do you mean by alpha strike think I know but want to confirm.

When a scumteam piles on somebody in yeetable range.

[Wam]

Ok one last one for Adum

Explain my town result on Thea?

[Freddino18]

Oh yes please

[AdumbroDeus]

Ok one last one for Adum

Explain my town result on Thea?

I'll let Thea explain it here: https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=80697#p80697

Godfather + bulletproof is fairly standard fare for an SK. For a high-powered setup like this one, this is basically the minimum power I'd expect an SK to have to be viable.

And I'm not even claiming they're BP, but having some form of investigation protection isn't particularly unlikely in the setup given how many players have a cop ability and one of them published their results.

And as I said last game day, ultimately setup speculation has to be rooted in player behavior in closed setups. There are degrees where it just becomes trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, but just having some form of investigative protection isn't that.

Thea's obtuseness really doesn't doesn't make sense without just being dishonesty (as Seven ultimately picked up) and Fredd's flip on Santy after maintaining he was town doesn't make sense as anything except of an alpha strike, especially since it came right after Seven becoming suspicious and the argument that made him reverse his townread wasn't explained at the time.

[Makhaira]

7-3-2 is kind of insane like Im extremely skeptical sabrar would sign off on something like this.

9-3 seems more straightforward, 8-2-2 maybe? But its been one kill all game like I think that means we should be updating to 9-3 unless its weird jungle republic stuff and JR is 13 players so I guess its not impossible

Adum from your POV if its only you and me or you and wam as the last townies hasnt town already lost? I dont see how no elim advances our wincon at all?

And if its 9v3 then we can miselim here and go to 2v1 endgame so Im really not understanding why we would no elim but ELI5 please if its a thing

[Makhaira]

Gonna be real I dont ever pay attention to gojoe and im not going to give any speculation on it any weight, Ill be iso-ing moody and somi atleast tho maybe a full reread

Glad seven atleast figure out I was town, yall know for a fact if im scum here im bringing seven to endgame with me not killing the slot, seven was wo deeply pocketed by me, and for good reason I gave seven doubling every night except the one night I gave it to wam. I feel like Im pretty much full clear at this point it yall trust town!sevens opinion at all

[Makhaira]

Adum if its 7-3-2 which team has been killing

[Makhaira]

Seven was also live updating/progressing reads so slot is def worth a reread for my other remaining townies to help you solve here I think seven was really paying attention and their reads should be given serious consideration here