HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[AdumbroDeus]

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Actually, what did you and Seven talk about last night Laser?

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Not much. Looks something like this:

Seven - Surprised that Glue flipped Town.
Laser - They were pretty townie for most of the game, but yeah, it was a terrible mistake.
Seven - What night action are you going to do tonight?
Laser - Not planning on claiming it.
Seven - You can tell me, I'm confirmed Town from Glue's N1
Laser - That only says you aren't a killer, doesn't mean you have to be Town.

Appreciated.

On that note, did you use an ability last night laser?

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[AdumbroDeus]

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Wagons so far:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

D1

Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Zeniba - 6 - Boomfrog, Seven, Adum, Moody, LaserGuy, Gluelock
Not voting: JC



Seven - 5 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi, Moody
EGW - 3 - Gluelock, LaserGuy, Adum
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
JC_Daddy - 2 - Seven, Boomfrog
Not voting: JC



Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi (E-2)
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
EGW - 3 - Gluelock, LaserGuy, Adum
Heury - 1 - moody.
JC_Daddy - 1 - Seven
Not voting: JC, BoomFrog


Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi (E-2)
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
EGW - 2 - Gluelock, LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody.
JC_Daddy - 1 - Seven
Adum - 1 - Adum
Not voting: JC, Seven


Seven - 5 - Bessie, EGW, Boomfrog, Heury, Somi (L-2)
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody
EGW- 1 - Gluelock
Not voting: JC, Seven


D2
heury - 6 - Adum, LaserGuy, Makhaira, moody, Seven, somitomi
Adum - 1 - heury
LaserGuy - 1 - EGW
Seven - 1 - Bessie
Not voting: JC, Gluelock


D3
Seven - 3 - Mak, JC, Bessie
Bessie - 2 - LaserGuy, Gluelock
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Somi - 1 - Moody
Moody - 1 - Somi
Gluelock - 1 - Seven


Seven - 2 - Mak, JC,
Bessie - 2 - LaserGuy, Gluelock
Moody - 1 - Somi
Gluelock - 4 - Seven, Adum, Bessie, Moody

Hmm... moody's voting behaviour is interesting. Outside of an early vanity wagon on heury, he's pretty much parked himself on the lead wagon for every vote of significance. D1 elimination wagon very unlikely to be pure, pointing to scum in [Adum, moody]. Last human likely is on the Seven wagon, pointing to [bessie, somi].

Btw, @Adum, I think you are supposed to give bessie an apology dance.

Nope, I was right on Seven. But if Bessie wants they can do an apology dance for me and boom :p

That's essentially a similar critique of Moody's play that I made last day phase.

I don't put much stock in wagonomics without understanding intent behind behavior, but if you're gonna present them you should include Mak's pseudo vote for zeniba and yourself for transparency. Also, you earlier asserted in a three man scumteam, one was probably off the other was probably on the wagon, what changed your thought process?

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When did Mak pseudo vote for me?

Not you, Zeniba, the D1 elim wagon.

I think if humans do not have a kill, then bussing is much less likely for them as it is exponentially worse for them to lose a member, especially on D1, and I think on balance they will be more adverse to bussing than baseline. If humans are informed of the other scum, they should presumably also have some legit scumreads that they could be pursuing over their teammates.

That thought process makes sense to explain your shift in perspective. Thanks.

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[LaserGuy]

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Nope, I was right on Seven. But if Bessie wants they can do an apology dance for me and boom :p

That's essentially a similar critique of Moody's play that I made last day phase.

I don't put much stock in wagonomics without understanding intent behind behavior, but if you're gonna present them you should include Mak's pseudo vote for zeniba and yourself for transparency. Also, you earlier asserted in a three man scumteam, one was probably off the other was probably on the wagon, what changed your thought process?

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When did Mak pseudo vote for me?

Not you, Zeniba, the D1 elim wagon.

What do you mean by the "and yourself" part of that statement?

On that note, did you use an ability last night laser?
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No.

[AdumbroDeus]

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When did Mak pseudo vote for me?

Not you, Zeniba, the D1 elim wagon.

What do you mean by the "and yourself" part of that statement?

That for transparency's sake you should include that you were also on the Zeniba wagon.

I'm finding it a bit of an odd omission in this context since you're providing the raw data and analysis of that data in an easily digestible format rather than simply providing your thoughts on the wagons. Former proports to help town in their own thoughts while the latter is more an explanation for your own thoughts.

Obviously if you're town, you know you are so for the latter case it makes sense to leave yourself off but for the former (providing accessible useful info for town to think about), leaving yourself off is at cross purposes.

On that note, did you use an ability last night laser?
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No.

Thank you.


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[AdumbroDeus]

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I'd suggest double checking with the mod, but it's possible the simultaneous resolution meant that it wouldn't count til this night phase. That would be a useful detail.

Yep, once, and only if I forgo my other abilities. It's very low on my priorities list for obvious reasons

I checked with our human overlords and yes, neighbouriser doesn't work immediately the night it targets a player so if Seven and I target the same person on the same night I see no chat.

Thanks.

Either we're dealing with a situation that scum thought all the powers that were stronger were scum of the same faction or protected in some form (as I said I'm of the opinion that 3 of the remaining players are scum of different factions), or the killer was concerned about seven specifically. If that were, that probably would be Mak or Bessie, possibly laser, seven did withdraw from them, but it's possible they expected Seven to return to them next game day.

So you're thinking we started with 3 humans and 3 different falvours of indie?

3 humans. Less than 3 is impossible now.

I think there's 2 killing scum, especially given how EGW acted around me and seven.

I didnt get any results last night btw so seems I was not targeted at all

Thank you.

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[moody7277]

@LG

Let's see, for D1 BF was looking for a counterwagon to Seven that would be more universally acceptable, and I think he keyed off my Zeniba hate to start that. D2 I had heury in the votables list, and the wagon just happened to fall that way, discussion being cut short by Mak means we can't know if an 11th hour counterwagon might have developed, and D3's wagon was data finding that bessie was instructing me to support simultaneously with me deciding to support it. I would still prefer elims on Mak, somi, and JC.

[AdumbroDeus]

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From a setup perspective, starting to warm up to I think that Mak/moody makes the most setup sense for the killing scumteam given their relatively weak versions of powers in a PR madness setup with a relatively low number of townies.

What irks me is, why would they kill EGW? Laserguy still is the only one with the obvious motive and while they were relatively late in the claim order anyone decently observant would've realized I was holding some potential cc material back and Bessie still hasn't claimed.

I need to reread their early d2 play with EGW to see if "townie that thinks they caught the killer" actually makes sense.

last human, Somi makes sense, that's a strong scumhunting power still, possibly laser or Bessie as hinges on the EGW interaction reread again and her play reflects "town Bessie who couldn't keep up" more than scum Bessie from the games I read.

Either way, this game definitely deserves a reread.

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[moody7277]

Adum implicitly saying that we should treat each Day from now on as Elo is not a terrible idea, it's a bit more paranoid about the setup than I am, but that level of cautiousness looks very townie.

[AdumbroDeus]

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Ebwop:

possibly laser or Bessie as hinges on the EGW interaction reread again and her play reflects "town Bessie who couldn't keep up" more than scum Bessie from the games I read.

Was supposed to have \"respectively\" at the end to clarify that it was separate quibbles for either of the two being Humans.

Also would've been clearer if I used \"which\" instead of the \"as\" at the very beginning of this paragraph.

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[bessie]

Woof woof.

Mind expanding on that?

Ok. If Mak, LaserGuy, and JC are the final three on the last night, scum wins.

can you post your other tested pool again please for ease of visibility. If your abilitybis is to be trusted we can probably do some simple probability assessments based on your pools and any overlap they share

A night that starts with only Gluelock, somitomi, and moody alive will result in a scum win.
A night that starts with only Mak, LaserGuy, and JC alive will result in a scum win.

I didnt get any results last night btw so seems I was not targeted at all

I targeted you. FoS Makhaira.

You should be. Seven ate Nine.

hahahahapft.PNG (77.29 KiB) Viewed 9377 times

[AdumbroDeus]

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Finally a counterclaim!

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[AdumbroDeus]

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It really isn't sitting right with me that this is Moody's only real analysis of anyone this day phase and it's providing a different rationale for why a generally townread player (I think) who both has been influential this game is very suspicious of them is town.

Just fits into a very passive defensive playstyle that doesn't seem that concerned with scumhunting. The only real counterpoint to that is how quickly they claimed yesterDay.

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[JC_DADDY25]

So, with Gluelock flipping town that leaves 1 of somi and Moody as scum

And

We have 1 scum between LG and Mak

When did you get the read on Somi and Moody @bessie?

[AdumbroDeus]

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I didnt get any results last night btw so seems I was not targeted at all

I targeted you. FoS Makhaira.

Huh, so this was a product of targeting people.

I'm also interested in which night you got the results on somi, glue, and moody.

I'm also extremely interested in who you targeted the night you're not mentioning, and if you didn't, why you didn't.

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[bessie]

Night 1: No action
Night 2: Gluelock, somitomi, and moody
Night 3: Mak, LaserGuy, and JC

Since my result was “scum wins” I think that neither grouping has exactly one member of each team (unless there is a team with no kill) or I should have received an inconclusive result.

[JC_DADDY25]

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I didnt get any results last night btw so seems I was not targeted at all

I targeted you. FoS Makhaira.

Huh, so this was a product of targeting people.

I'm also interested in which night you got the results on somi, glue, and moody.

I'm also extremely interested in who you targeted the night you're not mentioning, and if you didn't, why you didn't.

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Kind of where I was going with that.

[JC_DADDY25]

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I didnt get any results last night btw so seems I was not targeted at all

I targeted you. FoS Makhaira.

Huh, so this was a product of targeting people.

I'm also interested in which night you got the results on somi, glue, and moody.

I'm also extremely interested in who you targeted the night you're not mentioning, and if you didn't, why you didn't.

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Kind of where I was going with that.

[JC_DADDY25]

Why didn't you do anything night 1?

[bessie]

My ability couldn't be used on N1.

[JC_DADDY25]

Was there an explanation as to why?

[JC_DADDY25]

And you're targeting 3 people at the same time?

[moody7277]

POE based decision on my part:

Vote: somi

[bessie]

Was there an explanation as to why?

Because it wasn't usable on night one. It's part of the ability, not a roleblock.

[AdumbroDeus]

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I targeted you. FoS Makhaira.

Huh, so this was a product of targeting people.

I'm also interested in which night you got the results on somi, glue, and moody.

I'm also extremely interested in who you targeted the night you're not mentioning, and if you didn't, why you didn't.

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Kind of where I was going with that.

My apologies for cutting you in line then, it was a good thought process.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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Starting to think that maybe seven was on to something.

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