Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 2)

[fontisian]

That 61.5% chance is the probability of scum locating and shooting a pr tonight if we yeet vt (and not counting doc and vig interference), actually, because we gave them the day role cop. Roleblocker is just extra power on top of that.

Unvote Janitor

I think the odds of getting useful pr info went down with the rolecop pick, so flip analysis will be more necessary.

I have stronger feelings on reads than I thought I would after so long away and I would like to lock scum roles in so I can start hunting for real.

My vote is for vengeful. I'm less opposed to godfather.

[moody7277]

I agree with bf's analysis on the vengeful, and am not going to redo his math on it.

As has been said, if we vote for roleblocker now, we'll have given them the sniper to go along with the spotter.

I was okay with giving scum Godfather until I had my nose rubbed in the PM that says they're more than meets the eye with being NK-proof and able to fool the w. doc.

And of course, Janitor is the devil.

[JC_DADDY25]

Thank you @swiss for the compliment on my analytics regarding which mafia roles to vote, I spent a good chunk of a 5 minute break on it.

I agree with you about lynching scum too, and am now getting really good town vibes from you.

Just checking, this is super sarcastic right?

I wouldn't call it "super", just a response in kind to what was given.

[JC_DADDY25]

[v]Vengeful[/v]

[JC_DADDY25]

Vengeful

[EGW]

Votecount 0.8

2-shot Roleblocker: Seven
Vengeful Mafiate: Swiss, Moody, Boomfrog, JC
1-shot Janitor
Godfather: Wam

Not voting:
Mak, Fred, Madge, Fonti, Bessie, Sabrar

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
Setup has been posted here for convenience.

With 12 players, it takes 7 votes to lock in a Mafia Perk. One perk remains to be chosen.
The deadline for Day 0 is December 2nd, at 9:00AM EST, or when all mafia roles are locked in.

[boomfrog]

For those voting for the Vengeful can you explain why 1 extra mafia kill is better than the other powers? I'm just not seeing it.

If the extra kill takes us from MYLO to LYLO is cost us nothing. If the extra kill gets blocked by a doc it cost us nothing. If the vengeful is the last mafioso elimed it cost us nothing. Outside these cases it costs us a whole extra day and is pretty bad, I agree. I'll call the Doc save 1 in 4. And I'll assume hitting MYLO vs LYLO is 50/50 which is not true but a decent rough guess. So 0.5 * 0.75 * 0.66 = about 25% chance of losing a game day to the vengeful. Maybe higher since they are likely to die before their fellows more then a random chance.

Your analysis needs to take into account the probability of Vig hitting town and Weak Doc hitting scum, especially since we likely have both of those roles in this game.

The chaos of that is why I simplified to 50/50. In MYLO the extra townie is not helpful. Feel free to do the actual math.

That being said, given what roles we have, I don't think it's a big deal. If Vig gets blocked, oh well, and perhaps good fortune. So really we should be treating it as a 2/9 chance thing rather than 3/9 as the other two PRs are what we'd really like to avoid being blocked. And of those, Mason is really the only one that is fully negated, and I think it's unlikely we have one. With regard to your point about Weak Doc, the results aren't permanently cast into doubt. We will be able to reconstruct whether they were roleblocked at some point based on the actions of our Cop and Vig. For example, if Cop is blocked or Vig shot doesn't go through on a non-Doc protect, we'll know Weak Doc wasn't blocked. Alternatively, if Weak Doc isn't blocked, then we will have our results from Cop to compensate. In other words, scum are limited in just how much they can do. We have a surplus and are going to get information regardless.

Valid point about N1 blocking Vig being irrelevant.

For weak doc, it's most likely that RB will miss a PR or withhold N1. We are very unlikely to be able to account for both shots. Selecting RB makes weak doc unreliable.

If they have us weak doc and not normal doc then they gave us masoniser or cop. I bet they gave us masoniser since cop + doc is a nightmare for scum.

Our PRs are good, stop trying to throw them away.

[boomfrog]

@wam: why godfather over roleblocker?

[bessie]

Woof!

@mod why did Huery replace

Noting this for now, because I think it is odd you would ask this.

Dgames were always open about why they replaced, normally from the player I admit.
Replacing d1 with a wooly "im busy sorry guys, cant keep up", in a 'stacked' game, after committing to a full game screams "crap I rolled scum and im scared".

We usually are here too; we all know we have lives outside of mafia and I think it’s dumb to pretend we don’t.
I understand about being suspicious of someone replacing out as scum, and it has affected my past evaluations even though I try hard not to let it. I think it is against the spirit of the game. [Refer to this post in the Gojoe thread. It is safe to read because it is about a past game.]

While I have you Bessie. I feel that you're not being as crystal clear as you were in the other game we played (yes I even re-read almost all the game, golly aren't I a good boy).

I don’t understand. In what way?

You don't need to follow, or even improve on Zen's wall of info (not content, info). I called it null, not scummy. Don't be scum please - would feel like a betrayal.

Ok. It wasn’t meant to be alignment indicative, in that it was meant to be my honest opinions of every player, and I would have made exactly the same post as any alignment.

Sorry BoomFrog I missed your question yesterday because I was hurrying to get through everything and it wasn't directly directed at me. If the content level remains workable I will be able to play in my usual way of intensely contemplating every work in every post.

I think what he’s asking is why didn’t you include the third?

I'd also love reasoning behind the decisions as that's what I actually care about. But it being a rushed post makes sense. I'm hoping for a more detailed answer next big post.

I was only thinking we got two. Yes I was in a hurry but I knew you would be thrilled with the bonus weeknight bessie posts, even if they were short.

The Cop won’t even know if they are sane until there is a flip on an investigated player. I don’t feel this role will have any useful results until late game, and only then if they live that long. So even if the cop claims a scum result, we won’t be able to use the result in case they are insane.

I selected Doctor because I don’t think doctors actually make a lot of saves. This role would be more useful late game if they live that long. And because in the past as mafia and as serial killer I have been successful avoiding doctored players. I mean, seriously, it’s not that difficult to weed a couple of people out of the kill pool because they have a high chance of being doctored.

I feel those two roles are the worst for town because they are not guaranteed to give a result. The Weak Doctor gets information every night. The Vigilante and Masoniser get an outcome from their action.

My gut feeling is that either or both of those roles will claim early anyway thus my comment “if they live that long”.

For my third choice I would probably give them Vigilante since there is a good chance an early shot would take out town. Then I would priority try to eliminate/night kill them day 3 or 4.

also which game did i do a crucial vig shot? i bet you it was sheeping a townie, i love sheeping townies

I believe it was Texas Hold'em, a game lost to the abyss.

Unfortunately I only have pages 1-7, 9-14, 17, 19-20. And I also have the mafia QT chat. I really must get back to working on the archive someday...

[Freddino18]

The problem with a Vengie boi is that it has the potential to flip a 3v2 into a scum win with only a 1 in 5 chance of town pulling that one out, and scum can pick their worst player to be sacked for an easy extra kill.

This is a great point and I'm now against Venge. @Fonti what do you think of this? Also, @Fred I'm uncertain why you voted for it after making this point.

I feel like it's the easiest to directly counter. If Vengeful is the last scum the power is useless. I am reconsidering at this point though.

Ok, here on is post-hammer. RC+RB is one hell of a combo, and I don't feel comfortable voting for that. I will not be voting right now, in case I lose an opportunity to unvote due to my once-a-day posting.

[madge]

YeahI'm definitely too scared of RB + rolecop. yuck.

Boom makes a good case for vengeful. especially because vengeful doesn't rob us of info.

i think i would be willing to vote for vengeful or janitor.

[Makhaira]

Im in the middle of playing blood on the clocktower and its making me miss real mafia holy shit you cant use real deduction almost at all in this game and no flip mafia is casual garbage holy fuck

Anyway anyone who voted for janitor or role cop is suss af, hammering rolecop crazy suss and literally "accidentally" hammering last game was probably my only good scum move, giga FOS seven

Vote: Vengeful Mafiate

[Makhaira]

How does anyone town aligned think giving scum day rolecop is a good idea like hello?????

[Makhaira]

Lets get to the main course this appetizer has gone stale im with swiss

[Makhaira]

Ok, I'm done with role theory.

Vote Janitor
Vote Vengeful

Rolecop/Vengeful is fine.

Let's play some fucking mafia.

gonna need this powerwolf to explain to me how town!fonti believes janitor isnt that bad to deal or at minimum how janitor is less harmful to town prospects than rolecop

[Makhaira]

Madge can you please explain what you mean by that "1/3" comment in explicit detail

[Seven]

Our PRs are good, stop trying to throw them away.

Ha, very well. I'll hammer Venge when it gets to L-1.

For my third choice I would probably give them Vigilante since there is a good chance an early shot would take out town. Then I would priority try to eliminate/night kill them day 3 or 4.

For the record, these are the same three choices I would have given.

Im in the middle of playing blood on the clocktower and its making me miss real mafia holy shit you cant use real deduction almost at all in this game and no flip mafia is casual garbage holy fuck

Really? When I played it, it seemed like it was almost purely deduction-based. It was incredibly difficult for me as scum because of it. I was town-read, but it was so easy to be PoEd by the mechanics.

Anyway anyone who voted for janitor or role cop is suss af, hammering rolecop crazy suss and literally "accidentally" hammering last game was probably my only good scum move, giga FOS seven

Vote: Vengeful Mafiate

Ha, it wasn't actually an accident? Gorf damnit.

[fontisian]

Vote Vengeful

[Seven]

Vote: Vengeful

[EGW]

Votecount 0.9

2-shot Roleblocker:
Vengeful Mafiate: Swiss, Moody, Boomfrog, JC, Mak, Fonti, Seven
1-shot Janitor
Godfather: Wam

Not voting:
Fred, Madge, Bessie, Sabrar

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
Setup has been posted here for convenience. Vengeful Mafia has been hammered.

With 12 players, it takes 7 votes to lock in a Mafia Perk. One perk remains to be chosen.
The deadline for Day 0 is December 2nd, at 9:00AM EST, or when all mafia roles are locked in.

[EGW]

It is now Twilight, no posting. Mafia have 24 hours to decide on who will receive roles amongst themselves.

[EGW]

Mafia roles have been distributed. Day 1 begins.

Votecount 1.0

1. Boomfrog
2. Wam
3. Swiss
4. Mak
5. Fred
6. Madge
7. Seven
8. moody
9. JC
10. Fonti
11. bessie
12. Sabrar

Not voting:
Everyone

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
Day 1 Begins.

With 12 players, it takes 7 votes to eliminate.
The deadline for Day 1 is Wednesday 6th, at 11:59PM EST

[JC_DADDY25]

Vote: Seven

Hammering the vote both times, obv scum. Now we just need to find the other two.

[Sabrar]

Late answers:
- as Mafia I would have given Town Vig, weak Doc and Masoniser. Vig is probably the least disruptive to Mafia, and the combination of Cop+Doc is scary. However Cop is already scary on its own after 2 checks and they are likely to get at least that many as GF or RB is not assured for scum. I think 2 Doc-s protecting each other is not the end of the world as that leaves Mafia to kill everyone around them. However I would have been concerned about the double protection ruining the NK. That leaves Vig, Masoniser and one of the Doc-s. Finally, as Seven mentioned I die as town N1 quite often, so I would have been a good target for a weak Doc, which tilts the balance enough in my selfish view towards it.
- I was leaning towards giving Mafia RB+RC. I think the concerns about that combination are overrated, as Mafia can just simply kill the identified PR instead of blocking them. I think the dangers of Vengeful were downplayed a bit with the likely inclusion of at least 1 non-standard NK.

Now onto other matters. Let's assume that all Mafia participated in the pre-game choice of selecting town PR-s. It is unlikely that none of them read the roles in their entirety or asked the mods for clarification (e.g. Weak Doc is not common in this forum). If they are made aware that the roles can be clicked then probably they would check out scum PR-s as well. So while it is not 100% safe to assume that all Mafia have read the roles and pondered them before D0, there is merit for using that assumption as baseline.
Sidenote: making a fake town!slip requires a significant mental effort from most players in my opinion as you have to consciously disassociate yourself from knowledge that is self-evident to you. Or maybe I'm just projecting.
prepost edit: it is also possible that a scum player initially misread/misinterpreted something, got clarification during pre-game and decided to fake their misinterpretation after (or it was suggested to them). This unfortunately diminishes the validity of some of the following observations.

bessie: bessie has time during the weekend so she would have definitely been aware of the roles and rules. She was apparently unaware how Janitor worked and also thought Town gets only 2 PR-s. Both items are extreme cases of the above where you don't just appear to have forgotten something or made a small mistake in your calculations but showcase a general lack of understanding/ignorance. With all due respect to bessie I don't think this is something that would occur to her and it is also unlikely that a scumbuddy would suggest it to her.

@bessie: just one question, you seriously haven't considered the potential of Cop + Doc together? That combination would undermine your reasoning to select them as Cop is likely to get enough results to be useful.

fontisian: they wrote jailer/jailor instead of janitor here and here, after correctly using the term in a previous post and they also used it correctly after that. I think this is unlikely to be a deliberate slip from scum!fonti given how inconsistent it is, also I would assume that they would have started with the misspelling right away if it were the case. It can be a genuine slip from either alignment but in that case it is somewhat more likely to come from town as scum is more aware of their own roles.

Makhaira: apparently didn't understand at first the Vengeful role and also was in confusion about the order of pre-game choices and assignments. Clarifies later that he didn't know roles were clickable and admits that he has done similar shenanigans as scum in the past. Taking into account his irl profession it is suspicious that he would misread things to that degree.

moody: apparently didn't read roles (not knowing what Vengeful and GF did). I don't think it is in his repertoire to fake that on his own, although it might have been suggested to him by a scum-buddy.

Seven: prepared the setup, played with it before, knows the roles. But then there is this discrepancy that I can't explain:

Reading over Godfather, it's even stronger than I thought. It affects the actions of 4 of the 5 PRs.

@Seven: did you just forget what GF did? Why reread the roles at that point in time?

wam: from here:

I hadn't clocked that the mafia could choose who got which roles until after I read fonts post and went back and checked.

Included for sake of completeness as it is not the same scenario as with the rest of the players. It is possible that distributing the roles would not come up during pre-game, so could be honestly missed by scum.

Highest chance to be town: bessie
Highest chance to be scum: Makhaira

[Seven]

Seven: prepared the setup, played with it before, knows the roles. But then there is this discrepancy that I can't explain:

Reading over Godfather, it's even stronger than I thought. It affects the actions of 4 of the 5 PRs.

@Seven: did you just forget what GF did? Why reread the roles at that point in time?

I haven't played it since 2015. I just copy and pasted the setup from it: https://smashboards.com/threads/pick-yu ... ah.385548/

I actually forgot that the roles (Cop, Mason, Godfather) weren't in their typical form until we started playing. The only one I remembered clearly was Janitor as it's the role I had.