Re: Tales of Desolation mafia Day 3
Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:01 am
Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed
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https://ramenchef.nfshost.com/nxf/
Assuming stuff about the setup taking flavor into account is literally how we got Wam. That's why we are where we are. I know not everybody likes that aspect of themed games(whereas I love pouring over the flavor), but it's here regardless.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:29 amTo me its just playing optimal way and not assuming stuff about the setup when we have no confirmation
Gunning for the one claimed cop is not helping my feelings here.heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:01 am Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed
No, because the lord of calamity and shepard aligned or not were stuff that had a mechanical focus (cop+everyone had it on their PMs) , and even without game context we could sort it out somewhat (At least I did) . Whereas this is just setup speculation + interpreting what the flavor resolution of the night implies , which in no way is the same sense of direction/security about it.Bop wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:35 amAssuming stuff about the setup taking flavor into account is literally how we got Wam. That's why we are where we are. I know not everybody likes that aspect of themed games(whereas I love pouring over the flavor), but it's here regardless.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:29 amTo me its just playing optimal way and not assuming stuff about the setup when we have no confirmation
Imagine heury is mod confirmed town, how would you proceed Bop?Bop wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:35 amAssuming stuff about the setup taking flavor into account is literally how we got Wam. That's why we are where we are. I know not everybody likes that aspect of themed games(whereas I love pouring over the flavor), but it's here regardless.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 12:29 amTo me its just playing optimal way and not assuming stuff about the setup when we have no confirmation
Gunning for the one claimed cop is not helping my feelings here.heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:01 am Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed
Yeah, I don't think Heury is cleared either, but they seem to be truthful about thinking they'd have to claim today.
1-2? (making the total in-game at most 4. 5 would be a third of max player count from the start, that seems crazy.). To me it's either a. 1 Malevolence and a sk, b. just the sk, or c. 2 from a separate mafia faction. Either way, to me the Immonant awakening from devouring all 8 types of malevolence flavor from today points to a clear separate negative player or faction we have to deal with no matter how I slice it. Which
This is a bit out of the blue and so is JC immediately going along without any kind of comment.heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:01 am Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed
I don't think Bop is disregarding that possibility entirely. I am concerned by you doing it the other way, i.e. dismissing all the worlds in which the remaining scum isn't malevolence mafia. The possibility of another faction is important to consider now because if there's another mafia group we can't find them based on analysing connections to madge and wam. It's possible there isn't a third malevolence mafia and we can't just PoE like it's not multiball because the PoE isn't the same if it is.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:10 am Again, I think the Indy possibility and stuff is likely, but acting as if that is the case and dismissing the worlds in which we just have to find the last malevolence mafia is what I think is not good
Do you think Heury is confirmed town?Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:11 am Imagine heury is mod confirmed town, how would you proceed Bop?
I think a sentence is missing at the end here, but I agree with the setup spec so far1-2? (making the total in-game at most 4. 5 would be a third of max player count from the start, that seems crazy.). To me it's either a. 1 Malevolence and a sk, b. just the sk, or c. 2 from a separate mafia faction. Either way, to me the Immonant awakening from devouring all 8 types of malevolence flavor from today points to a clear separate negative player or faction we have to deal with no matter how I slice it. Which
Yes, I saw that. That is as it should be, but you put yourself as towniest on your lists previous to the charts, which I find gauche.
I think from a balance perspective we are in B or C. Scenario a (3 mafia vs 12 townies with a vig and decent town PRs) is not very balanced I think. So let's consider Heury's shot tonight as an extra town yeet.Sabrar wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 10:15 am The safe yeet today is heury because that will mean only 1 NK for sure (otherwise we're in some weird 10-3-2 setup which I doubt), so in worst case scenario we will still be at 5-2 tomorrow, so even another misyeet will not doom us immediately. This is excluding all other considerations from the analysis.
The second option is to hunt for scum today instead. Worst case is we misyeet and lose 2 other townies during the night. That will leave us with either
a) 5-1 (heury is truly Vig and scum had only 3 members),
b) 4-2 (heury is Vig but scum started with 4),
c) 4-1-1 (heury is SK, scum started with 3),
d) 3-1-2 (heury is SK, scum started with 4).
I doubt Adum would consider d) a good design. In case it's a) or c) we can still safely yeet heury D4 and be assured to get to a 3-1 endgame on D5. The only issue is if we have b) but fail to realize it.
If worst case does not occur (e.g. we yeet scum today, or only 1 NK happens or 2 NK but one of them hits scum), then we can still safely yeet heury tomorrow in all scenarios without risk of immediately losing.
Therefore I think we should take a little risk and let heury shoot again.
Didn't you say that you had a guaranteed contradiction with wam? This is only a probable contradiction. Did you really go all in with that assumption? If wam had flipped town you'd have been auto-yeeted by town the next Day.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 5:59 pmBecause I am bodyguard. It would be extremely OP if I had another player that passively prevented me from dying while I am protecting someone else.
Laser protected Mak n1 , N2 I think near the end I softed quite strongly who I was trying to protect haha
heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:01 am Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed
For both of you: What faction do you think EGW is on? Why do you think that faction has a flavor cop?
Just post your raw thoughts. Whatever you are thinking just think it out loud. Even if that's not anything you think is actually useful.phillip1882 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 3:56 pm i never know what to type for these things. can anyone recommend a good target for my power?
If you're looking at it this way then this is true. However I don't think you consider the scenario where the worst case doesn't happen.
Is it the vocabulary or the dismissive tone?heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:38 pm Sentences like this is why you get miselim'd as town
I feel like I am repeating myself and people still come to ask thing I've alreasy said at this point.somitomi wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 10:26 amI don't think Bop is disregarding that possibility entirely. I am concerned by you doing it the other way, i.e. dismissing all the worlds in which the remaining scum isn't malevolence mafia. The possibility of another faction is important to consider now because if there's another mafia group we can't find them based on analysing connections to madge and wam. It's possible there isn't a third malevolence mafia and we can't just PoE like it's not multiball because the PoE isn't the same if it is.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:10 am Again, I think the Indy possibility and stuff is likely, but acting as if that is the case and dismissing the worlds in which we just have to find the last malevolence mafia is what I think is not goodDo you think Heury is confirmed town?Santygrass wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 6:11 am Imagine heury is mod confirmed town, how would you proceed Bop?
Without knowing what the other scum has, this is a shot in the dark though to assume
Its just that I am 100% sure that Adum/Ceme realize that combo is just broken for town.boomfrog wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 3:50 pmDidn't you say that you had a guaranteed contradiction with wam? This is only a probable contradiction. Did you really go all in with that assumption? If wam had flipped town you'd have been auto-yeeted by town the next Day.Santygrass wrote: ↑Sat Feb 01, 2025 5:59 pmBecause I am bodyguard. It would be extremely OP if I had another player that passively prevented me from dying while I am protecting someone else.
Laser protected Mak n1 , N2 I think near the end I softed quite strongly who I was trying to protect haha
Also, side question, what do you think about the implications of wam being a traffic analyzer?
I think it would be the best, considering what my role is and that I already claimed.
if the "we could do better" is also the scenario in where we make the worst yeet mech-wise for us in other scenario, then its not optimal at all fmpovSabrar wrote: ↑Sun Feb 02, 2025 4:43 pmIf you're looking at it this way then this is true. However I don't think you consider the scenario where the worst case doesn't happen.
You argue that we can't be worse off by yeeting heury now, I'm saying we could do better.
Also, we are not 'promising' to yeet him tomorrow no matter what happens, we will look at flips and have a new discussion.