Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[JC_DADDY25]

EBWOP: Huery

[EGW]

Yes that is. If you give a blanket statement, you should state who you suspect. I did the same with Hippo this game. Nothing about a claim.

[JC_DADDY25]

Your comment, since you weren't specific, comes off as you asking Huery for his character name.

[EGW]

I did not realize that. That was not my intention. (FF14 reference)

[Bop]

Madge - I don't trust the miller claim. @Bop please take note here as well. She claimed late enough that she was confident there were no other millers who might claim, and she likes mechanics, that includes going for an early mechanical clear on herself. Only scum if it's multiball because she is sincerely trying to scum hunt.

I mean regardless of how this day ends I think I need to reevaluate the people I've cleared with how crazy this game has been.

4. Wam - I kinda beleive him, but not flipping him is a risk.

Not to heap on the "agreeing all the time" but I think I agree here. I've been wrestling with it all day while gone, but I don't know how we'd verify Wam to be clear or to be voted later down the line if the claim is false but we decide to back off today. If we vote and he is indy/town split that sucks(but clears Santy) and we have to really buckle up and make sure to get it right tomorrow, but if he's scum we let him go this is the moment everyone will look back on as when we lost.

[Santygrass]

Last Battle Music



So , I know time will prove me right. Wam will flip scum.
(If they not, you are allowed to not give my reads consideration if I die. But if I die, CONSIDER them , DO NOT forget them)


What does it tell us about the team this flip? Frankly, a lot of stuff. The most important point is how Wam didnt knew how to properly claim their flavor alignments to appear as town.

Why is this important? Because the people that *knew* the implications, are cleared from being in the same team as Wam. For this Im thinking in 3 particular names.

1. Bop . Honestly Idk if they would need *more* reasons to be townread. But this post is clearing . Giga clearing, protecc of all costs level of town.
2. BoomFrog . They were the ones that *proposed* and that later Bop agreed that everyone should claim their Shepard and Lord alignments. They knew it had a purpose behing, and it ended up catching someone
3. Mak . They said they were a fan of teh saga from the start, and have posted talking about flavor before umprompted and actively theorizing about it. Honestly I doubt a team with Mak commits that mistake, but admittedly the clear here is less strong than with Bop/Frog.


Now, I saw Madge getting some push because of this post which, yes can coincide with the pov of a scum member that is annoyed that flavor somehow fucked them over and outed one of them . But like, Sabrar also has it .

Let's default to something that has never ever been wrong before.

Vote: wam

I dislike voting people out for flavor reasons I am not familiar with.
I dislike people getting voted out because of flavor reasons they are not familiar with.

@mods:
Is Edna ever mentioned in the Berseria game? Is she alive during the Berseria timeline?
Is she considered to be a protagonist or an antagonist in the Zestiria game?
Is she specifically aligned with a Shepherd or a Lord of Calamity in the Zestiria game?

This just doesnt have the energy or spark of town getting a scum , yet they go and vote them fully embracing it. This to me def is how you have to vote a partner that got outed, because even if you arent really happy about it, you realized how damning is the evidence and that not following along and bus will look bad. But I have more in regards of Sabrar, because its the opposite of the 3 names I put at the start that seemed to knew the implications.

Okay, let's talk one final time about flavor-claiming.

Facts we know:

- there is at least 1 town player from Zestiria (bessie)
- there is at least 1 town player from Besteria (moody)
- there is at least 1 town player aligned with a Shepherd (technically not true because we don't have bessie's confirmation but this is the sample given by the mod so we can safely assume it)
- there is at least 1 town player aligned with a Lord of Calamity (moody)
- scum have fake claims

Now there are 2 main possibilities:

1. Scum has a fake claim that matches their true identity for considering the above aspects. In this case scum can safely claim the info in their role-pm, and a flavor cop will not be able to find a discrepancy.
2. Scum was purposefully given a fake claim where the above info do not match. In this case a flavor cop's result might be useful, unless scum does the necessary research to come up with a better fake claim on their own (or they are already familiar with the games and don't have to do the research). I argue that this scenario might be considered bastard, but even if we accept the premise that the fake claims are deliberately different in order to make flavor-cop useful, it can be potentially be circumvented.

Conclusions:
1. result of the flavor cop alone is not enough to distinguish town from scum as flavors are varied.
2. scum can probably safely claim their true flavor and be consistent with their actual character-claim in the future.

Summary: flavor cop is actually useless, except in the specific scenario where scum have purposefully bad fake claims and cannot come up with a better one on their own.

@Boomfrog, @Bop: please point out the parts of the analysis that you disagree with and explain why.

I cant emphasize the last line enough . The explanation Sabrar wanted of Frog and Bop, was what mafia needed to avoid to being outed by accident. This is a really bad look. And lets not forget, Frog was pushing Sabrar at this time because they werent supporting their claim idea, which was something that didnt add up with how Sabrar Mech play usually is .

But the damning evidence for Sabrar doesnt end here.

What are your town pings ?

I know you said you were struggling because you were not sure standard process applied, but I still infer you have some slots you favour more than others. (Also I would advise you to just solve normally and not weigh the multiball possibility so much to get to a mafia flip more confidently but dont want to force you to solve my way)

As for the claim stuff, I dont see much of the value yeah but if there are flavor cops at least it verifies the info a bit more so eh. At least dont see a particular issue with it 'not being as helpful/super useful' . So in a way I kinda understand why it was a bit eyebrow raising the opposition.

Your point explaining why it is probably not as good is true though for the most part imo, in a way that I dont expect for it to leads us to mafia just by that. And more likely the value just being taking away maybe fake-claim possibilities from mafia forcing them to partly claim flavor stuff early ig.

If you are town I think the best way to get back on a better track is still try to develop and explore other reads not being frog

I will go through the list and collect my town-pings today.

This was a question I did to Sabrar during the day, to try make them talk about their social reads. And thing is, they never really did, except for only one townread in particular, at a time I was pushing them. Yes, you guessed it. Sabrar only took the time to explain their townpings on Wam, on a time they were getting pressure by me, and didnt care on anyone else. This elevates their Equity through the roof

For consideration re wam:

1. I mentioned in my original readlist a specific townie-ping. It was this post and the follow-up (which was 3 hours later). It indicates that wam was actually thinking about it, because in my opinion scum would first figure out what to publish, and not leave it to 'chance' whether they can explain it later. Naturally, wam could have faked it and deliberately waited 3 hours to post, but I find that less plausible as it is such a small thing that it can easily go unnoticed.

2.
This and this. I think this is confused town. Again, the reason I did not answer at first was because it just seemed obvious to me that I have given up on the idea of scum!Boom. I think scum!wam would have had a different reaction, but of course I could be wrong.

Now , this is like damning enough, but Im not over yet. Remember the early read ofd Frog wich I kinda agreed that the bessie kill and not Sab/EGW actively points at one of them being scum by gamestate / read weight (Assuming Frog is town specially so) . Okay, it gets worse if we look at Wam progression, because EGW/Sabrar are the slots that Wam is just the messiest when making reads on them. Please, ISO Wam and verify this progression for yourselves.

D1 Readlist - Hedge on Sabrar , Townread on EGW that doesn make much sense because by his reads he shouldnt be agreeing with their process (Something me and Frog pointed out D2)
SoD2 - They say Sabar is likely to have shot bessie
Contradicting Themselves - Saying nk analysis leads to wrong paths , yet they pointed it rather quick about Sabrar D2...?
Only comment about the supposed scumslip from Sabrar - They were lurking, and didnt accuse, question or shielded Sabrar from anything. Only did a empty comment when it got clarified by Adum
Vote on Sabrar - After Frog makes a big push about it , and prompts players to pick a side. They just blankly vote Sabrar and have to be asked for an explanation by me, which is... you guessed, because bessie was a likely nk (the contradiction in their view when defending themselves)
Revisit on their EGW D1 Read - they go through the ISO, explain what they liked again, and not comment much about anything pinging them as bad from EGW
Vote on EGW - And its for like, a super shallow reason again. On a slot that they should be townreading, why do they flip this way? Its certainly super strange, and for me the biggest indicator that this weird shift from Wam indicates that EGW/Sabrar is never pure . I do think is likely that they just wanted an excuse to unvote Sabrar, and maybe be opportunistic since EGW is like, playing almost like a Jester with the level of obtuseness in their view from today, I think almost everyone can agree to that.
Option B would be that he saw their partner struggling, and wanted to disntance and it just reads really badly

[moody7277]

@moody can you claim your alignment with Shepard / calamity for me? I'm assuming you haven't done so. I need it for pattern matching.

moody claimed Calamity: https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=85455#p85455

Since Santy's claim hints that they might not be exclusive, I will say I'm associated with a Lord of Calamity, I am not associated with a Sheperd

Does your alignment get locked in as town if you are elimmed today or do you lose the game if town wins on an odd day?

I think this is part of what Sabrar was saying about "nightmare to balance"

@moody could you ping phillip with such a list before the end of the game day?

Hey, who should I pick?

somi, Madge, boomfrog, Bop

[Santygrass]

Also, lets not forget that Sabrar is motivated . And it was claimed openly in the thread, next day that action of Sabrar has to be heavily inquired about , as well that make them explain in detail about their mech solve.

And in the case Sabrar flip scum, dont go and yeet philipp because they motivated them, because it was clearly not coordinated. In the way that Hippo randed , came into D2 wondering why their target didnt say anything, and Sabrar was trying to soft it but not reveal into the thread, and it ended up being hippo themselves who revealed to the thread. That is not w-w

[Santygrass]

Also on a Sabrar scum flip, heury is giga cleared aswell from all the /Sabrar scum slipped/ situation

[Santygrass]

Town
Santygrass - Bop - Phillip - BoomFrog - Moody

Mak - Madge

Somi -heury - EGW

Scum

JC
Sabrar
Wam


There should be always one in Sabrar-Egw , so if Sabrar flips town thats where I would think to go next imo. I do think EGW is more likely town for having at least more natural? or less constructed interactions with Wam, but their whole refusal to vote them and all the obtuseness when they should be voted, and their (likely) pushes of all town today being so off isnt something that should be forgiven and townread. Hold them acoountable (But also dont yeet him just for that)

Third slot should be in the pool of JC >>> Somi/heury >>>> Mak/Madge . JC not commenting nothing about Wam because everything was already addressed doesnt feel real. Specially considering they didnt mind bringing up the fact that heury claimed therion for the sixth time and commenting about that. Somi has the only flavor claim that goes after Bop explained the implication of what it meant / relation to the games. So def something to keep in mind (One of the best cop targets imo)

[boomfrog]

@Santygrass: Why does scum wam point out that Scum sabrar is telling on himself if they are partners? I have them hard unaligned because of that. And Sabrar sincerely thought wam was soft claiming flavor cop which he used for the "mech solve" on EGW. I'm sure they aren't scumbuddies.

Sabrar really doesn't like solving a game based on flavor. (And I don't either, but I consider this to be more of a subtle mechanic than just a flavor solve since everyone had very explicit alignments in their role PMs.)

Actually thinking it through more, I believe scum do have fake claims and used them so all the scum on the actual scum team have seemingly solid claims. Only people who were kinda off but not actual mafia are falling in this trap.

Actually, aside from you're hidden proof that wam is scum scum I'm pretty confident he is indy. Heury is actually totally right. (Also, Heury is probably indy but your right he's not scum.)

Unvote Heury

[Santygrass]

Luck wasn't on your side. Sorry for the rand


Vote:Wam

_{This puts Wam again at L-1}

[boomfrog]

For the record, I believe that means that the true mafia all lied about their alignments so cops can have a chance of catching those lies and should target anyone the suspect.

[Santygrass]

@Santygrass: Why does scum wam point out that Scum sabrar is telling on himself if they are partners? I have them hard unaligned because of that. And Sabrar sincerely thought wam was soft claiming flavor cop which he used for the "mech solve" on EGW. I'm sure they aren't scumbuddies.

Sabrar really doesn't like solving a game based on flavor. (And I don't either, but I consider this to be more of a subtle mechanic than just a flavor solve since everyone had very explicit alignments in their role PMs.)

Actually thinking it through more, I believe scum do have fake claims and used them so all the scum on the actual scum team have seemingly solid claims. Only people who were kinda off but not actual mafia are falling in this trap.

Actually, aside from you're hidden proof that wam is scum scum I'm pretty confident he is indy. Heury is actually totally right. (Also, Heury is probably indy but your right he's not scum.)

Unvote Heury

Clearly TMI haha. Like its one of the biggest wolftells to comment stuff about the nk , and they really didnt push Sabrar out of it. It was only a comment they did D2 , and only brought up later after *you* hard pushed Sabrar and forced thread to pick a side.
When things calmed down, Wam used the first excuse he could use to unvote them. It reads as very partnered to me.

[boomfrog]

Luck wasn't on your side. Sorry for the rand


Vote:Wam

_{This puts Wam again at L-1}

Dramatic as fuck. I thought you'd hammered.

What's a "rand"?

[boomfrog]

@Santygrass: Why does scum wam point out that Scum sabrar is telling on himself if they are partners? I have them hard unaligned because of that. And Sabrar sincerely thought wam was soft claiming flavor cop which he used for the "mech solve" on EGW. I'm sure they aren't scumbuddies.

Sabrar really doesn't like solving a game based on flavor. (And I don't either, but I consider this to be more of a subtle mechanic than just a flavor solve since everyone had very explicit alignments in their role PMs.)

Actually thinking it through more, I believe scum do have fake claims and used them so all the scum on the actual scum team have seemingly solid claims. Only people who were kinda off but not actual mafia are falling in this trap.

Actually, aside from you're hidden proof that wam is scum scum I'm pretty confident he is indy. Heury is actually totally right. (Also, Heury is probably indy but your right he's not scum.)

Unvote Heury

Clearly TMI haha. Like its one of the biggest wolftells to comment stuff about the nk , and they really didnt push Sabrar out of it. It was only a comment they did D2 , and only brought up later after *you* hard pushed Sabrar and forced thread to pick a side.
When things calmed down, Wam used the first excuse he could use to unvote them. It reads as very partnered to me.

I agree wam siding with me vs Sabrar then letting Sabrar "call if off" is weird. Hmm.

[Santygrass]

Its basically a way of saying "Im sorry that you have randed/receive the scum alignment this game"

Also yes, Im a theater kid at heart what can I say

[EGW]

I can tell. You reminded me of a player from my home forum, Santy.

[EGW]

Santy does have a point that Wam voting me is weird.

[EGW]

Also on a Sabrar scum flip, heury is giga cleared aswell from all the /Sabrar scum slipped/ situation

No.

[JC_DADDY25]

Don't remember if I asked this before, but is your neighborhood one night only Moody or do you get to keep it?

[JC_DADDY25]

Also on a Sabrar scum flip, heury is giga cleared aswell from all the /Sabrar scum slipped/ situation

No.

I agree here.

[Santygrass]

Also on a Sabrar scum flip, heury is giga cleared aswell from all the /Sabrar scum slipped/ situation

No.

Yes, you dont accuse a partner in such a damning way, specially in a way that Adum had to clarify/talk about it being a mod error when replying to the same question apparently. So Sabrar and Heury should never be sharing a chat

[moody7277]

Don't remember if I asked this before, but is your neighborhood one night only Moody or do you get to keep it?

It's around as long as I am.

[EGW]

Sabrar voted me while waiting for a Heury case. I was hard trying to convince him on Heury. If Sabrar is scum then that leads me to believe I was correct on Heury. You even agreed with me on my heury points. Now Heury giving blanket statements doesn't help.