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Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:35 pm**

bessie wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:15 am
Theallieza wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 6:20 am Do you think Wam is lying? Are both scum?
I think it is possible that Seven is scum, and that Wam has a false result.

Theallieza wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 6:20 am I find it very strange that "Seven is lying" was not a possibility that you seem to be entertaining.
I consider every possibility. And, um, not only am I considering the possibility that Seven is lying, I have accused him of lying. Why did you even make this remark?

I am specifically curious why you think that Wam's result was manipulated, rather than that Wam's result is correct and Seven is lying Town. This is the simplest explanation that is sufficient to explain all of the data. It's weird that your default assumption is that this is some sort of a scum power play against you rather than Seven doing Seven things. What's your working theory for why scum!Seven would behave this way?

If you have a specific role-related reason why you believe Wam's result is manipulated, I'd strongly encourage you to share it.

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:38 pm**

Wam wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:56 pm So I initially wondered if Fred's weird takes about teams we're then getting confused between chat and thread but they are so out there I just think fred isn't paying attention. Rather than being alignment indicative.

People with really outlandish takes are IMHO more likely to be Town. Scum have more of an incentive to go with the flow and not draw attention to themselves.

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:38 pm**

Wam wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:56 pmSo I initially wondered if Fred's weird takes about teams we're then getting confused between chat and thread but they are so out there I just think fred isn't paying attention. Rather than being alignment indicative.

Close, but it's actually a memory issue. I read everything, but the retention isn't there.

Answering Santy, I'm not 100%, but the hard push in favor of Bessie is weird. On a town-town level, proving Bessie to an acceptable level is usually no more than three steps. On a level where Wam is town and Bessie is not, it is to be expected that Bessie would be marginally harder to prove town. On a Wam scum and Bessie town level, it's unnecessary, and on a scum-scum level, it looks like partnering. Discounting the Wam scum Bessie town angle as ridiculous, it's a 2/3 chance of Wam being town.

So, final answer, Not Sure, but Probably No.

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:52 pm**

Santygrass wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 3:20 am Surface level not a fan of the stuborness in the view, but at least I think is nuanced enough and JC seems to have belief in it that I kinda believe / is making me doubt

Unvote
Vote: Moody

Lets see how I feel about this for a bit~

Can you give me a quick updated reads list?

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:55 pm**

Santygrass wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:41 pm
Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:36 pm Well I didn't go back and read so... you caught me
I-
Hm

Do you think bessie and wam are both scum?

This question was mostly directed at Fred btw

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:02 pm**

Me

Wam
Theallieza

Seven

Fred

Madge
JC
Bessie

Moody

Ordered most town to less town, its kinda where Im at asorn
Madge-JC-Bessie where Im more likely to hedge the most, since I feel like if there's 2 scum there, game is easy and we are in a good track.
But if not, I need to change my perspective on quite a lot of stuff

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:03 pm**

Theallieza wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:38 pm
Wam wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:56 pm So I initially wondered if Fred's weird takes about teams we're then getting confused between chat and thread but they are so out there I just think fred isn't paying attention. Rather than being alignment indicative.
People with really outlandish takes are IMHO more likely to be Town. Scum have more of an incentive to go with the flow and not draw attention to themselves.

Does this count as fred thought that was the flow?

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:03 pm**

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:38 pm
Wam wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:56 pmSo I initially wondered if Fred's weird takes about teams we're then getting confused between chat and thread but they are so out there I just think fred isn't paying attention. Rather than being alignment indicative.
Close, but it's actually a memory issue. I read everything, but the retention isn't there.

Answering Santy, I'm not 100%, but the hard push in favor of Bessie is weird. On a town-town level, proving Bessie to an acceptable level is usually no more than three steps. On a level where Wam is town and Bessie is not, it is to be expected that Bessie would be marginally harder to prove town. On a Wam scum and Bessie town level, it's unnecessary, and on a scum-scum level, it looks like partnering. Discounting the Wam scum Bessie town angle as ridiculous, it's a 2/3 chance of Wam being town.

So, final answer, Not Sure, but Probably No.

Oh you are Fred WTF sorry. Idk why but I thought this post was from Thea lolololol

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:11 pm**

Sorry, I got verbose with it

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:11 pm**

Wam wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:03 pm
Theallieza wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:38 pm
Wam wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 5:56 pm So I initially wondered if Fred's weird takes about teams we're then getting confused between chat and thread but they are so out there I just think fred isn't paying attention. Rather than being alignment indicative.
People with really outlandish takes are IMHO more likely to be Town. Scum have more of an incentive to go with the flow and not draw attention to themselves.
Does this count as fred thought that was the flow?

Im debating myself about that rn.
I think as town is quite easy to let your perspective skew how you think the consensus is (specially if you dont have good memory or are not fully aware lf some stuff).

So I thought the Fred perspective was subconciously 'ts either my sus Fred/Bessie or what the people sussing me is saying (them+Seven by bessie). So the post also asking for consolidation also makes sense.

Them not sussing Wam makes my town mindset kinda crumble and just leaves me confused to where that impression of thread came from

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:12 pm**

Freddino18 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:11 pm Sorry, I got verbose with it

Nah, no need to apologize. The skill issue was all mine sorry ;-;

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:13 pm**

Santygrass wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:02 pm Me

Wam
Theallieza

Seven

Fred

Madge
JC
Bessie

Moody

Ordered most town to less town, its kinda where Im at asorn
Madge-JC-Bessie where Im more likely to hedge the most, since I feel like if there's 2 scum there, game is easy and we are in a good track.
But if not, I need to change my perspective on quite a lot of stuff

Thanks.

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 7:16 pm**

@JC, when you are next around, what are your opinions of Fred and moody?

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 10:01 pm**

All good, santy

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:09 am**

Regarding extension: Madge and Fred won’t be available at deadline and I don’t think I will be either. I’ll also be absent tomorrow.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:09 am**

I think Occam's razor would indicate Seven is more likely lying town than any manipulation going on. And if I were to accept on faith everyone else's opinion about Fred being town (any read I have of him is likely to be contaminated by what I think of him not showing his reads), my solve would be {bessie, Santy, JC}.

Letting y'all know I will be on at EoD.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:16 am**

moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:09 am I think Occam's razor would indicate Seven is more likely lying town than any manipulation going on. And if I were to accept on faith everyone else's opinion about Fred being town (any read I have of him is likely to be contaminated by what I think of him not showing his reads), my solve would be {bessie, Santy, JC}.

Letting y'all know I will be on at EoD.

What’s your response to the slip stuff?

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:19 am**

Seven wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:16 am
moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:09 am I think Occam's razor would indicate Seven is more likely lying town than any manipulation going on. And if I were to accept on faith everyone else's opinion about Fred being town (any read I have of him is likely to be contaminated by what I think of him not showing his reads), my solve would be {bessie, Santy, JC}.

Letting y'all know I will be on at EoD.
What’s your response to the slip stuff?

me wrote:3. Again, I want to emphasize that I'm am not good at picking up on these, so my opinion of them is going to be crap. I think the one by Madge not knowing if scum have daychat is more likely to be real. Fred's general confusion about rules seems to be more newer player than AI.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:24 am**

moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:19 am
Seven wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:16 am
moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:09 am I think Occam's razor would indicate Seven is more likely lying town than any manipulation going on. And if I were to accept on faith everyone else's opinion about Fred being town (any read I have of him is likely to be contaminated by what I think of him not showing his reads), my solve would be {bessie, Santy, JC}.

Letting y'all know I will be on at EoD.
What’s your response to the slip stuff?

me wrote:3. Again, I want to emphasize that I'm am not good at picking up on these, so my opinion of them is going to be crap. I think the one by Madge not knowing if scum have daychat is more likely to be real. Fred's general confusion about rules seems to be more newer player than AI.

I mean on page 56, starting from this post: https://ramenchef.net/nxf/posting.php?m ... te&p=75311

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:27 am**

There's no slip there.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:35 am**

moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:27 am There's no slip there.

Why are you assuming night chat only?

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:38 am**

Seven wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:35 am
moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:27 am There's no slip there.
Why are you assuming night chat only?

Pretty much the same reasons Thea said here, except I started *mumble mumble* years ago.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:45 am**

Ok. For the record, I found it more likely to be a town slip than a scum slip, but I intentionally left that part out to see how Thea/others interpreted it.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:54 am**

I think scum probably has day chat. I don't believe we generally used Night Chat only on Smashboard games.

Yes, it's coming back to me. Adum would have been around in the quicktopic era, and I remember being to talk in there during the day.

If Adum had a rule that deviated from the norm (that he comes from), I believe it would be made explicit in the rules.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 1:04 am**

madge wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 4:55 am @Seven: Don't weasel unless it's to actually clarify beyond what my questions anticipate. Is this result you have on bessie a) an actual bona fide in-game investigation result of some sort, or b) is it your way of claiming your Very Accurate Read? If a), is the investigation unambiguous (e.g. 'bessie is scum' or 'bessie and heury are incompatible alignments') or is it ambiguous (e.g. 'bessie was the only one who visited EGW last night', given scum could have a ninja?)

b, I don't have a bona fide in-game investigation result. I came to the conclusion that bessie is scum during N2.

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