Okay reads lists time. I'll fold in the promised Snide Sniper analysis as I go.
LaserGuy:
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Post 1: Welcomes TSS & patzer, asking for more mafia experience. Asks me why factions in the order I listed.
Post 2: heuristically_alone's response to TSS re. why me town feels out of place, giving too much info vibes. Asks why not waiting for BF to reply first. Town leans on BF and moody.
Post 3: responds to heury re. disagreement with interpretation - not about agreement, is about how and why asnswered, and repeats why not wait for BF.
Post 4: thinks question is NAI, and has me at null. Unsure about what BF is basing analysis off of, but not surprised seeing things differently this early.
Post 5: continues conversation with HA, thinks BF would be offended thought read based off something superficial.
Post 6: Quizzes HA re. TSS post feeling townie. Prods somitomi asking who he likes as town. Coaches TSS re. importance of giving reads. Asks patzer re. what he thinks of me, and for other impressions.
Post 7: Continues argument with HA re. read/non-read of me. Wants his explanation of TSS as Town. Comments on BF re. HA discussion. Likes my feistiness.
Post 8: Responds to patzer's question re. why LG asked about me specifically - wanted to get an understanding of thought process. Asks why BF ended up on town side, unlike himself and somitomi.
Post 9: Reads list: me + BF town; Suzaku + somitomi, town lean'; bessie moody null town; wam null scum (PoE scum read - nothing much stood out); TSS scum lean (no newbie Town vibe, not interested in answers, not engaged); patzer scum lean (keeping under the radar, non-committal, would be more engaged if town); heuristically_alone probably scum.
Post 10: Doesn't think TSS we comment should be higher than null; not interested in answer; never follows up on BF, and doesn't give read of me. Thinks very weak tell to assume newbie Town. Finds it suspicious that SS is not more paranoid about being scum read.
Post 11: @heury - so everyone is Town?
Post 12: @patzer - what is suspicious in LG's play?
Post 13: deadline planning: not around.
On his Snide Sniper interactions: I'm not sure I agree with his conclusions, and an argument could be made that he's putting pressure on TSS because it looked like he'd get easy support from people like me. I actually got an initial possible feeling of a TSS buddy before he started posting concerns about them, due to a hint of coaching, but that could easily have come from anybody, so it's really null, and I don't think scum!LG would have pressured buddy!TSS the way he did.
Away from his Snide Sniper interactions, I don't have any real objections. I think his reads match much of my gut feelings, although I haven't read patzer yet, so don't know if his suspicions are justified. Nothing feels particularly out of place and his arguments against heuristically_alone all make sense to me and sometimes even match exactly what I was thinking, but hadn't got around to posting yet.
LaserGuy is always one of the players I find hard to read. I'm putting a mild town lean on him at this point, but may revise once I have a relative order, especially given the fact that scum can do valid scum-hunting this game, since, assuming my setup spec is right, Cult will be hunting Mafia and vice versa, not even accounting for the Survivor.
End of post edit: revising LaserGuy down to slightly scummy, but not by much - see my comments further down.
moody7277:
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Post 1: RVS boomfrog, promising to unvote if entertaining D1 gambit. Thinks should treat survivor like SK without kill.
Post 2: Accepts BF's point about setup meaning no need for gambit; LG's question on my ordering looks townie. Unvotes.
Post 4: early reads (LG town; bessie, BF, me, somitomi, town lean; heury, slightly scummy; neutral/insufificent info for wam/patzer/TSS). TSS seems befuddled, nonplussed by my vote on him.
Post 5: comments on his slight negative wam read, essentially meta.
Post 6: more explanation of above.
Post 7: joke bessie obviously scum. Thinks patzer's lack of effort in her read of him is suspicious. Prods patzer for more info on their read of LG.
Post 8: Reevaluates patzer a bit, making them as voteable as heury. Reanalyses TSS, finds mostly getting up to speed, with only latest post having meaningful content, and when prompted; gives him a -0.5 rating.
Post 9: Apologises about pronouns.
Post 10: patzer's content = townieness model is broken, nervous lower levels are based on this, has as voteable but thinks heury more likely their vote, due to earlier reads and him going dark. Suzaku +2 due to townslip comments bucking the groupthink.
Post 11: switches vote to patzer.
On The Snide Sniper: seems to be largely not paying much attention to them, even after I started putting pressure on them, although there isn't a huge amount to be stuck into, so I don't find this too negative. Cynical view here is that he's given him a slight negative rating so as to be able to sneakily persuade others to have a negative view of TSS without actively pushing them himself.
Beyond that, moody is another of those players I struggle to read. Nothing is objectionable here. He's not prodded people all that much directly, but I think that's fairly normal for moody, if I'm not mistaken. Mild town for now.
Preview EDIT given that moody has posted another reads list. Nothing much to change my opinion here except I don't agree with his comment re. Suzaku's reads list being "extremely fluffy", especially given it was made fairly early. Maybe slight decrease in my read here.
patzer:
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Post 1: Rusty, RVS Suzaku for not posting yet.
Post 2: reads list: me lean town; moody neutral (can't latch on); heury: vibes point towards lean scum; LG pushing people sensible, neutral, but funny feeling; TSS not enough activity neutral; somitomi hard to tell, neutral; wam no obvious clues, neutral; bessie honest analysis, pressured heury, leans town; BF went along with focus on heury, not sure neutral versus lean town; Suzaku no info. Asks LG why asked about me specifically.
Post 3: moody's list looks reasonable. Explains thoughts on LG, thought possible LG/Heury team due to possible public distancing by LG and slightly odd response from Heury; also possibly LG scum, heury not and LG is attempting to direct away attention. Explains reason for low activity. Thanks suzaku for rough summary. somi didn't jump out at her. Posts tentative list with TSS, heury as bottom two, me, BF top two; low reads based on activity. Nothing particular against TSS, but lack of activity could be a sign.
Post 4: List was tentative. Scum could be less active trying to fly under radar. Heury and LG have pinged as scum signs, but LG is mixed.
Post 5: spotted BF's question re. setup, and explains her thoughts on division.
On The Snide Sniper: patzer's only comments around The Snide Sniper are about their lack of content, yet despite that (or rather because of it according to her), she's put them second from bottom on the list. I don't think patzer is a buddy with The Snide Sniper - I think she'd have made more of an effort to interact, or at least wouldn't have put her that low. I also find it suspicious that the low position of Snide Sniper on their list appears after I've prodded for comments, and there's some evidence of negative views of The Snide Sniper from others too.
Beyond that: I do agree with others' concerns that patzer's reads have been weak at best. I also find some of their comments a bit of a cop out, e.g. somitomi I had reasonably strong town vibes from fairly early on, but patzer says "hard to tell" and places a neutral label on it. Moderately scummy, but not likely a buddy with heuristically_alone.
somitomi:
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Post 1: RVS moody, for not being hyped enough.
Post 2: Responds to BF's question about why focused on moody. Comments on "attempting to appear as having a town mindset" being scummy, and doesn't understand why heury would assign town points for it. Also questions heury why he gave a town-reading reason for me, if no actual read.
Post 3: Continues to question heury. Thinks his reads are superficial. Assumes my Snide Sniper opinion is serious, and asks me to explain why.
Post 4: prods heury for an answer again re. post 2.
Post 5: votes heury for not answering questions. Thinks me, BF and LG are town due to mindmelding on heury. Asks me why TSS is in a separate category for my list. Comments on heury's "wary of somi's town tone" post.
Post 6: Responds to bessie's accusation that somi ignored her question. Suggests patzer should order people from townie to scummy. Questions TSS on BF/risky move. Interesting both heury and TSS think BF is doing something sneaky. Might switch votes to TSS but heury vote not achieved desired result. Asked for clarity on my Snide Sniper position re. heury co-alignment.
Post 7: Like's Suzaku's entry. Happy with my response. Activity is unreliable scumtell. Asks patzer re. evidence for town!LG. Accepts Suzaku's point that newbie scum wouldn't stick necks out. Not a fan of TSS reads, but willing to give time to adjust. heury remarks might be coming from mafia, but ignoring questions could go either way. Silence is concerning.
Post 8: Concurs with LG's question re. why heury has everyone town. Reiterates questions. Scumreading buddy is within heury's range. Thinks town reads are trying to avoid hinting at his mate. Agrees with bessie setup making bussing unlikely. Thinks cheekiness from heury more brazen than expected. Agrees with suzaku re. "we" in TSS comments. Posts ordered list with me, BF top; heury, TSS bottom.
On The Snide Sniper: somi's comments around TSS are initially all in response to my scum read and vote and related points. He does expand a bit more. I was a little surprised by somi's apparent willingness to switch to TSS when I asked him to, given this fairly limited comments. He also appears lower than patzer on the list, whom others, including myself, are finding negative, despite the acceptance of Suzaku's comments.
@somitomi - why is The Snide Sniper lower than patzer in your recent ordered list?
General feeling here is that somitomi could possibly be a scum player using apparent other's negative views to help with an easy elimination target.
Aside from TSS: if there was a reason to breadcrumb being the cult leader, I think somitomi's opening post ("moody isn't hyped enough") would be one for it! I doubt that though. Beyond that, I said earlier that I found somitomi's comments townie, and I don't think that's really changed. As noted above, his read of TSS seems weirdly low given some of his other comments, so that is maybe a minor point against somi. I think his pressure on heury makes sense, and I broadly agree with it, so overall this would be a fairly strong town read except a) see my comments re. scum being able to scum hunt and b) the TSS point above. Demoting for now down to approximately neutral.
Suzaku:
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Post 1: apologises for delayed start.
Post 2: recaps game state. Doesn't follow BF's town-read on me. Finds my early comments neutral. Thinks Town!BF picked me to push town, to see if he could draw out scummy reactions. Provides possible mafia gambit. Doesn't think BF would do this D1 in multi-faction game, but not impossible. Agrees weak town read on LG for order question being genuine scum hunting, including follow-up. Doesn't think heury's initial post re. TSS question was particularly scummy, but also not townie, but follow-up reactions and arguments do suggest it is. Noted no non-town reads by heury. Also notes heury's BF is likely town but still voting, which is weird. No strong reads, but posts overall reads with heuristically_alone as scummiest, followed by patzer, with LG and BF towniest. Votes Heury.
Post 3: Responds to wam re. weak scum read on patzer - due to low content level/weak reads. Most posts with same level of reads would be scummier. Finds bessie difficult to read due to posting style and also difficult distinguishing her town from scum. She seems on meta, but not a strong town tell. Finds her mod vote interesting, but not sure what kind of tell it might be.
Post 4: Accepts BF apology.
Post 5: No strong scum reads other than heury.
Post 6: Accepting TSS as newbie, doesn't think newbie scum (who would know, or at least strongly suspect that I am town), would make a comment like that early in the game. He expands his comment and gives reads. Feels TSS's reads are coming from a "trying to process" place rather than "I know who's who". Sticking to town read for now.
Post 7: Seeing a strong case for newbie scum TSS would make him reassess.
Post 8: discussion with bessie re. meta read + somi is similar. Accepts bessie's reasoning for mod vote.
Post 9: Continues discussion with bessie. Doesn't agree with other's comments re. the "we" statement. Asks patzer why her vote is still on Suzaku.
On The Snide Sniper: for his first few posts, Suzaku only mentions The Snide Sniper in passing, and certainly not in any way indicating any alignment or view of him. His first comment that gives any alignment indication eventually comes in response to my question. I like the fact that this opinion didn't go with the flow of just scum reading TSS for low content, and instead sticking his neck out for him. This is particularly the case should TSS ever flip town. On the other hand, a scum!Suzaku or TSS flip could suggest the other is a scum buddy.
Beyond that, I find Suzaku's early reads list mostly matching my own feelings. On the other hand, it has a lack of scum when there's likely to be 4 scum, in my opinion (this isn't isolated to Suzaku mind you). On that note:
@Suzaku - what is your setup spec for this game? Also, please post an updated reads list.
Overall, moderate town read.
I'm skipping The Snide Sniper for a general read, because I already did that read yesterday morning, and his one post since then doesn't strike me as changing my opinion much. I like that at least he isn't trying to hide his opinions on other players, and I'm willing to accept what he's posted so far as newbie. Not going to be my vote today.
I'm running out of time now, so am going to defer my wam analysis and actual reads of bessie and BoomFrog until later, quite possibly start of D2, so that I can spend time on heuristically_alone and decide between patzer or him.
heuristically_alone:
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Post 1: my mod question is coming from a town mindset (responding to TSS).
Post 2: "Will the flavour of two separate parties take form in the setup of the game". Votes BF for no gambit.
Post 3: mod question.
Post 4: asks LG whether he believes with his interpretation re. question.
Post 5: answers question because he knew the answer.
Post 6: Town lean on LG for pressure on him.
Post 7: Has BF ever done gambit as mafia? Only seen as town. Joke vote always becomes end day D1 vote.
Post 8: Asks bessie to answer his previous question.
Post 9: Not made a read on me; my post has "we we we" in it referring to town. Thinks I'm at least attempting to appear as a town mindset.
Post 10: Undecided on if BF is scum taking advantage of his scummy appearance, or if BF thinks laid a trap and caught scum. Latter seems more likely. Asks somi what his opinion of him is.
Post 11: Answers me re. Halloween game. Reads TSS as town, based on response to BF.
Post 12: Sure will devolve to normal self as game goes on. Thinks answer to wam's "why Somi?" question would be apparent - waiting until somi answers to respond.
Post 13: Sarcastic? "Maybe" in response to wam and playing to town meta too hard.
Post 14: TSS not going to be his vote today.
Post 15: Only votes for people he thinks is scum. somi's last game was mafia and was read as town from get go, so wary of his town tone. Also saw seen TSS's post as townie, was stating why. Interesting BF jumped to the conclusion that he was attempting to explain.
Post 16: despondent that he's being scum read when sharing honest opinion.
Post 17: Crazy couple of days, so long gap. Posts town to scum list with reasoning: LG pressure = most towniest, me - first post was phrased like a townie would interpret the OP and town role; somi scum likes to ask lots of questions; wam = more active than previous game, and is trying harder, wonders whether wam tries harder as scum, reading as town due to scum hunting; TSS - interprets his asking why I am townie trying to understand things, explains Town of Salem meta; bessie = normal town bessie; Suzaku & patzer true neutral - not paid much attention; BF - no gambit must be scum. Asks for questions to be reasked.
Post 18: sniped by Madge
I've not seen anything from heury's most recent post that changes my thoughts re The Snide Sniper and him. More generally, I can definitely see the argument for heury being scum, and agreed with the way the initial argument went, although interestingly when I just read his posts in isolation, I could definitely see a case for town!heury posting the first few posts in that sequence. In particular, The Snide Sniper's post with the infamous "we" actually could be taken to address the players in general, not BoomFrog specifically, since it didn't address BoomFrog specifically. In some ways, this is a slight negative point against LaserGuy, who didn't view it this way. That being said, his follow-up responses didn't say this at all, so my earlier scum view of heury, stands. I also don't like the content drop, although he's claiming RL, so that has to be taken into some consideration. Finally, there have been a couple of occasions where heuristically_alone has joked about not being town, which just doesn't sit right with me. I stand by my earlier scummy feeling overall.
More ninjas by bessie and BoomFrog. I'll be online at deadline, but may be a bit busy, so don't know if I'll be able to monitor it closely.
Town
Suzaku
somitomi
The Snide Sniper
moody
BoomFrog*
wam*
bessie*
LaserGuy
patzer
heuristically_alone
Scum
*position is provisional
Wild guess as to the faction assignments:
heuristically_alone: Antisocial survivor - due to despondency levels
patzer & bessie??: Mafia - PoE (bessie listed as partner but really got no clue here)
LaserGuy: Cult leader - not a likely buddy with patzer or heury, so PoE puts him here.
I'm not liking the fact that basically everybody has patzer and heury as scummy, but it's not impossible given the setup. I wouldn't be surprised if one of these is town though because of this, but it doesn't change the fact that I have them as my two scummiest reads.
I'm leaning towards a heury vote, but will hold off placing it for now. Will make sure to vote by day end, if it isn't going to cause a hammer, or if everybody is in agreement.
