Re: HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:39 pm
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https://ramenchef.nfshost.com/nxf/
Case in point, noted, thank you.
That's exactly my question though, in this LaserGuy+Moody universe why does Zeniba, who's on the other team go straight for moody's neck?EGW wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 9:19 am No, I was meaning exactly that Zeniba would be too hyper aware of what her scumbuddy would be doing in thread. However, in my re-read, I've dropped this in favor of Laser. So I no longer think Zeniba was with Moody, I just think Moody is scum individually (with Laser Associatively) and just going from there.
Can somebody tell me where this Gluelock information is coming from? I feel like my files are corrupted
Zeniba wasn't really on the elim radar when the Seven wagon was riding high though, so whatever the people voting him were doing, it wasn't directed at saving her. A last-minute bus seems more likely, but it's also entirely possible her mate just didn't have time to react. And f we're assuming a 9-2-2 setup, the other two mafiosi are presumably trying to get their rivals eliminated, but they're only marginally more likely to be correct about that than town players. Wagonomics is gonna be weaker than usual here
@somi in the post I'm quoting here.
I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:14 pmRan I understand because he was confirmation biasing. Bessie doesn't really make those kinds of reads though. Bessie reads are x action is scummy, person does x, person is scummy. That is, they’re based purely on actions, not underlying motive speculation such as by players like Ran and me.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:27 pm System.out.println("
Why do you think the traitor theory is scummy? Why would scum Bessie that's not on a team with scum heury have an incentive to falsely townread heury so strongly?Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 12:34 pm Bessie seems like shes straight up open wolfing to me. That post where she was encouraging George’s traitor theory. Heury being top town read.
Only thing is, i dont think she would ever kill Glue night 1. Unless on a team with someone who is insistent and objective (detached) enough to make the kill.
Theory: bessie and Adum (dissenters) vs heury and Zeniba (humans)
I took the wording of Boom being protected as he was shielded, not that he was saved. The difference being that the latter implies that he was shielded + targeted. @mods if we are supposed to know, can you tell us which you mean here?
Why is are you assuming it was Bessie's theoretical team that targeted gluelock instead of Zeniba's? What's your analysis on why I'd want to kill Gluelock and that I'd be able to convince Bessie to follow my lead?
Bluntly I don't think these points work well together and I think you've convinced yourself of Bessie scum and are working backwards to justify it, but I'm interested in your responses.
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I suppose it is possible that bessie thinks I’m rambunctious enough to out my whole team in my opening post. But I find it puzzling that she thinks even I would do something so absurd. It seemed like she was goading Ran on.
My issue is with your thought process, unless they're on a team together they're only a bit better inherently equipped (via POE) to figure out who otherscum is. It's just as possible for town and scum have a role that allows this.With regard to bessie town reading heury strongly, let me ask you this: why is town!bessie reading him so strongly? There was not enough town indicative content by heury for bessie to have such a strong read so early, so that leads me to believe she has outside info about heury. The most straightforward way she has this is if they are masons, but if heury is maf that’s not so.
So in the heury scum theory, bessie either has another connection with heury in some manner that is less straightforward or her read isn’t authentic.
I've never heard of setups where different Mafia teams don't both have kills every day or some other form of removing town (like a cult or idk, a marker *britches and hoes flashbacks*, Indy that game but a theoretical possibility for a Mafia "NK"). It's possible this is a memory failure though.As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.
Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.As for why you would kill gluelock, the same reason anyone would. He’s largely town read.
As for why you in particular would be able to convince bessie, its based on personality traits. Different people have different degrees of deference with different people. You and Mak are the only players I think bessie would let take the reigns on the night kill choice.
Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:14 pm As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.
Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.Gluelock wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 2:17 pm
-the discussion of a 9-2-2 set up is interesting, I think it makes sense for there to be 3 factions: AI, Dissenting AI, and Human. But have we considered the possibility that Zeniba was a lone human? Flavor wise it makes sense that she was working alone and it’s actually 9-3-1.
Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum
During the night phase? You can ignore my question about what changed your mind. Though I'd appreciate you walking me through the thought process you had last day phase towards Heury.
Seems to be now! Thanks!
Being a setup god isn't pertinent to thinking that a traitor would contact their team by listing all of them as the team publically in thread. All that would do is a) cause the scum team to kill them, and b) cause the scum team to be outed if the traitor dies. That's what I'm suspicious of her for. She deflected this as a "I wouldn't do this as scum" comment, but it's not -- it's a "why would ANY decent scum do this ever".AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:28 pm I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.
Yes, the setup god line.I agree on EGW and confirmation bias, I wanna make sure I understand your thought process, is this the post you mean by her goading him on? viewtopic.php?p=51970#p51970
I have no idea where you're getting the idea that the scum team knows who the other scum team from. I working under the presumption that scum!bessie thought heury was town. There was not enough reason to deep Heury so strongly town, so town!bessie only read him that way because she had outside info that he was town (e.g. masons). scum!bessie read him that way because she has TMI. If Heury isn't town then, as you're alluding to, it can only be the latter case: she's on the opposing team and thought he was town.My issue is with your thought process, unless they're on a team together they're only a bit better inherently equipped (via POE) to figure out who otherscum is. It's just as possible for town and scum have a role that allows this.
But also, what's the incentive for Bessie on one scum team to cover for the other scum team?
I think the Bessie read is weird, and I'm interested in her explaining it, but the setup speculation you have here makes sense, you're tunneling the slot and justifying your thoughts after the fact like EGW did.
I still town read heury. I'm basically just going off the implications that you're a flavor cop that knows heury is human based off results from last night.On that note you had a weird hyper town read on heury as a strong town PR last game day, it's the reason I suggested Zeniba instead of Heury actually. What changed your mind?
Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.
Because he's new to the forum, she wouldn't want to kill him N1. You wouldn't override bessie but she would defer to you if you believed in the kill.Why do you think me of all people could override Bessie? Also why you so sure she wouldn't want to kill gluelock?
I think she's tunneling you just as hard as you're tunneling her. I do 100% agree it's silly though.Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 11:58 pmBeing a setup god isn't pertinent to thinking that a traitor would contact their team by listing all of them as the team publically in thread. All that would do is a) cause the scum team to kill them, and b) cause the scum team to be outed if the traitor dies. That's what I'm suspicious of her for. She deflected this as a "I wouldn't do this as scum" comment, but it's not -- it's a "why would ANY decent scum do this ever".AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:28 pm I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.
Yep, I don't think she's goading it, I think she thoughr EGW had a brilliant idea because she's tunneling you too and working backwards.Yes, the setup god line.I agree on EGW and confirmation bias, I wanna make sure I understand your thought process, is this the post you mean by her goading him on? viewtopic.php?p=51970#p51970
Ok, this makes more sense as a theory.I have no idea where you're getting the idea that the scum team knows who the other scum team from. I working under the presumption that scum!bessie thought heury was town. There was not enough reason to deep Heury so strongly town, so town!bessie only read him that way because she had outside info that he was town (e.g. masons). scum!bessie read him that way because she has TMI. If Heury isn't town then, as you're alluding to, it can only be the latter case: she's on the opposing team and thought he was town.My issue is with your thought process, unless they're on a team together they're only a bit better inherently equipped (via POE) to figure out who otherscum is. It's just as possible for town and scum have a role that allows this.
But also, what's the incentive for Bessie on one scum team to cover for the other scum team?
I think the Bessie read is weird, and I'm interested in her explaining it, but the setup speculation you have here makes sense, you're tunneling the slot and justifying your thoughts after the fact like EGW did.
? I can confirm that whatever message you received isn't mine. If you think you're reading a BC of me flavor copping Heury, you're wrong. I think they're Zeniba's scummate because of their play around the slot.I still town read heury. I'm basically just going off the implications that you're a flavor cop that knows heury is human based off results from last night.On that note you had a weird hyper town read on heury as a strong town PR last game day, it's the reason I suggested Zeniba instead of Heury actually. What changed your mind?
That doesn't require somebody to override Bessie, that requires either scum Bessie or their partner to figure out the BC. Or you know any other scum possibility.Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.
I think it's a bad assumption to assume that any player in this game would defer to me lolBecause he's new to the forum, she wouldn't want to kill him N1. You wouldn't override bessie but she would defer to you if you believed in the kill.Why do you think me of all people could override Bessie? Also why you so sure she wouldn't want to kill gluelock?
Which is fair, your thought process isn't quite as ridiculous as it initially seemed, but it's still very clearly working backwards to justify itself.And to be clear, this is just one theory (hypothesis) and not necessarily the one I am most inclined toward. It's just the one I'm entertaining in thread at the moment.
AdumbroDeus wrote: Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.
Seven wrote: Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.
This discussion looks like the theory is scum were trying for a combo shot if they recognized the BC to get to BF if they targeted Gluelock.AdumbroDeus wrote:That doesn't require somebody to override Bessie, that requires either scum Bessie or their partner to figure out the BC. Or you know any other scum possibility.
Maybe I'm nitpicking here, but just looking at this linguistically, your first two statements,heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:28 pmYeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:14 pm As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.
Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.Gluelock wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 2:17 pm
-the discussion of a 9-2-2 set up is interesting, I think it makes sense for there to be 3 factions: AI, Dissenting AI, and Human. But have we considered the possibility that Zeniba was a lone human? Flavor wise it makes sense that she was working alone and it’s actually 9-3-1.
Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum
Too funny lol
Yep, that's what I'm thinking. I'm not sure what other good reason there is to target Gluelock.moody7277 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:01 am I think Seven's interpretation of what happened is plausible, it is within BF's ouvre. I'm wondering if there's such a thing as a loud doctor whose targets are announced. Two scum teams is quite a bit of pizzaz for a 13 player game, not ruling it out, it's just a more complicated theory.
AdumbroDeus wrote: Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.Seven wrote: Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.This discussion looks like the theory is scum were trying for a combo shot if they recognized the BC to get to BF if they targeted Gluelock.AdumbroDeus wrote:That doesn't require somebody to override Bessie, that requires either scum Bessie or their partner to figure out the BC. Or you know any other scum possibility.
I think you're just not reading context.Gluelock wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:14 amMaybe I'm nitpicking here, but just looking at this linguistically, your first two statements,heuristically_alone wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:28 pmYeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:14 pm As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.
Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.Gluelock wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 2:17 pm
-the discussion of a 9-2-2 set up is interesting, I think it makes sense for there to be 3 factions: AI, Dissenting AI, and Human. But have we considered the possibility that Zeniba was a lone human? Flavor wise it makes sense that she was working alone and it’s actually 9-3-1.
Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum
1. Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?
2. Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.
These both have very confident language being repeated. You're definitely sure there were 2 kill actions, and you're definitely sure theres more than 1 human.
Compare that to:
3. Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum
This is lacking that confidence exuding jargon from your first two statements. Why not "My role pm says I'm definitely town, and not human or scum."? Ironically, you should be the most confident about this; the other two are reliant on conjecture but you ought to know your assigned role. Normally, I wouldn't even think about something like this, but it's a pattern that is really standing out to me. Does anyone else think I'm just grasping at straws here or is there some unconscious linguistic tell at play here?
You may have been guarded by BoomFrog. He recognized that you were a leader, and if town, a good one.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:16 am Actually a little surprised I wasn't "visited" last night, wasn't expecting to survive the night phase tbh lol
When my vote isn’t needed to secure an elim, I prefer to use it to signal my current intent for the following day.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:16 am Bessie encouraged it as well as a viable alternative but still preferred Seven. Probably more likely scummate with Zeniba than laserguy but looks less likely from lynch behavior.
If you are town, this repetitive speculation of my role is not advantageous to town. But I think you are not town, and you are rolefishing, and you are trying to cause confusion as to my role in the thread by implying that either I claimed this, or that you somehow otherwise know it.
I can’t comment on flavor/alignments because I don’t know any of it so far.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:17 am I think this is a game where flavor is taken into account for alignment and roles and I'm basing this on the Zeniba flip, and that likely includes safeclains. I can't speak for boomfrog because I don't know their character so if I'm being stupid and it makes no sense as a bodyguard please feel free to let me know.
But I think we should table this discussion for now. Don't want to shake our more role information that could help scum.
It is D2 so I have no personal restrictions on eliminations.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 6:04 am @Bessie congrats on finally being able to vote somi without feeling guilty about it?
This is an excellent description of both our mods.
Hari Seldon bussed Peaceful Whale in Newbie New Year.
I will try to get to this later.EGW wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 7:06 amCan you elaborate more on this?bessie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 07, 2023 4:46 pmI was ok with the Mak and BoomFrog observations, I was pinged by the LaserGuy observation. And what pinged me was not because I was suspicious of LaserGuy which I already covered, but if moody was reading carefully, he too should have realized what was wrong with LaserGuy’s post. So it was a ping for what I though may have been just looking for a reason to post.
Point to where I did this.
Seven has been deliberately misinterpreting and misrepresenting my content throughout this game. Townies make mistakes, scum make intentional misreads. FoS Gluelock.
Can you not think of another reason for Seven’s behavior?AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:27 pm Bluntly I don't think these points work well together and I think you've convinced yourself of Bessie scum and are working backwards to justify it,
I like this. I might use it in future to help explain my meta.Seven wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:14 pm Ran I understand because he was confirmation biasing. Bessie doesn't really make those kinds of reads though. Bessie reads are x action is scummy, person does x, person is scummy. That is, they’re based purely on actions, not underlying motive speculation such as by players like Ran and me.
Not true. This is a leading statement disguised as, but not based on, fact. Oh, and a “would I do this as scum” statement. -1
+1, QFT, etc.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:28 pm I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.
I hope all is well.AdumbroDeus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:30 pm Apologies for being a bit scatterbrained, pet medical emergency