Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[Seven]

Oh true, didn't put much thought into it. Just knew that if it was 3-2-1, then 3-1-1 going into night, then 1-1-2 or 2-1-1 the next day

[Seven]

^@ laserguy

[LaserGuy]

Oh true, didn't put much thought into it. Just knew that if it was 3-2-1, then 3-1-1 going into night, then 1-1-2 or 2-1-1 the next day

You didn't put much thought into counting?

[moody7277]

Can I change my underline vote?

Seriously, me and somi went over this a little bit early D2, that's how long it's been discussed. That is also what virtually guarantees LG is town, double vote would help town avoid this kingmaker folderal you are proposing in your breakdowns.

[Seven]

Oh true, didn't put much thought into it. Just knew that if it was 3-2-1, then 3-1-1 going into night, then 1-1-2 or 2-1-1 the next day

You didn't put much thought into counting?

That's correct, you can see people getting on me for the same type of behavior in WWZ. Most of the time im just going by instinct, throwing things out there.

[Seven]

Can I change my underline vote?

Seriously, me and somi went over this a little bit early D2, that's how long it's been discussed. That is also what virtually guarantees LG is town, double vote would help town avoid this kingmaker folderal you are proposing in your breakdowns.

And if he were killed or recruited?

[LaserGuy]

I did some interaction analysis as far as EoD2 following jimbob's lead.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

1
viewtopic.php?p=6887#p6887
Somitomi picks on moody +0.5 somi/moody

2
viewtopic.php?p=6948#p6948
TMI-wrong?

viewtopic.php?p=7047#p7047
Probably not Seven/Zenni -1 Seven/Zenni

3
viewtopic.php?p=7062#p7062
viewtopic.php?p=7084#p7084
Giving wam a -0.5 here for being neutral is weird. Unclear of why this reading should be negative at all based on what he says. Buddy vibes. +1 Wam/Moody

viewtopic.php?p=7131#p7131
Uncertain of this interaction between Wam/heury.

viewtopic.php?p=7151#p7151
Somi/heury did something similar in WWZ. +1 somi/heury

viewtopic.php?p=7165#p7165
Unclear why Wam getting townread here. +1 TSS/Wam. -1 TSS/moody, -1 TSS/somitomi since these players were not mentioned. -2 TSS/Suzaku since TSS didn't complain about Suzaku not posting yet.

viewtopic.php?p=7200#p7200
I feel like Wam should more suspicious of moody here +0.5 Wam/moody.

4
viewtopic.php?p=7202#p7202
-1 Wam/TSS

viewtopic.php?p=7224#p7224
-1 Suzaku/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=7227#p7227
+0.5 Wam/Seven


5
viewtopic.php?p=7362#p7362
-1 moody/ Suzaku

(grumble, I still like D1 moody)


6
viewtopic.php?p=7518#p7518
Not sure somi would lampshade hang bussing heury so much here. -1 somi/Seven.

viewtopic.php?p=7522#p7522
-1 somi/Wam due to the EBWOP
+0.5 moody/Wam
-0.5 TSS/Wam
-1 Wam/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=7528#p7528
+1 moody/somi
+1 moody/wam
-1 moody/Suzaku

(TSS still does not read as newbie town to me)


7
viewtopic.php?p=7586#p7586
-2 suzaku/Seven
-1 wam/Seven (discounted since wam does bus)
+0.5 TSS/Seven

End of Day 1

8
viewtopic.php?p=7763#p7763
viewtopic.php?p=7769#p7769
Weird vibe on these post re: TSS.

viewtopic.php?p=7820#p7820
+1 Wam/TSS. Persistent townread on Wam is strange.

9
viewtopic.php?p=7933#p7933
+1 Wam/TSS

viewtopic.php?p=7954#p7954
-2 Wam/Seven I doubt Wam would double-tap his buddy like this


viewtopic.php?p=7968#p7968
-2 TSS/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=7982#p7982
-1 moody/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=8001#p8001
-1 Wam/Somi


10
viewtopic.php?p=8106#p8106
-1 moody/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=8148#p8148
-2 Wam/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=8213#p8213
+1 moody/Wam -feels generous


11
viewtopic.php?p=8230#p8230
+1 Seven/Wam
+1 TSS/Seven
-1 Seven/moody

viewtopic.php?p=8233#p8233
-1 Seven/Wam (seven just ignores this)

viewtopic.php?p=8240#p8240
+2 Seven/Wam (seven defends Wam; I generally disagree with this assessment and I feel like Seven see the differences...)

viewtopic.php?p=8270#p8270
-1 Seven/moody

12
viewtopic.php?p=8272#p8272
-1 somi/Seven

13
viewtopic.php?p=8370#p8370
viewtopic.php?p=8374#p8374
-1 Wam/Seven

viewtopic.php?p=8401#p8401
-1 Wam/TSS
+1 Wam/somi

14
-1 Seven/somi

15
viewtopic.php?p=8448#p8448
viewtopic.php?p=8452#p8452
-1 moody/TSS (doesn't feel like a bus to me)

16
viewtopic.php?p=8480#p8480
+1 moody/TSS

viewtopic.php?p=8485#p8485
+1 moody/Wam

18
viewtopic.php?p=8572#p8572
+2 moody/Wam

I was thinking about this today and wondering if I maybe did something really dumb so there's also Seven/jimbob to consider:
Heury/jimbob

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

viewtopic.php?p=6902#p6902
+0.5 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=6956#p6956
+1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=7079#p7079
-1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=7431#p7431
-1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=7744#p7744
-1 Seven/jimbob

+1 Seven/jimbob (jimbob not voting D1)


viewtopic.php?p=7946#p7946
+1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=8055#p8055
+1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=8108#p8108
-1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=8237#p8237
+1 Seven/jimbob

viewtopic.php?p=8500#p8500
+1 Seven/jimbob

Totals:
Wam/moody: +6
Seven/jimbob: +4.5
Seven/Zenni: +0.5
Zenni/Wam: +0.5
Somi/Seven: 0
All other interactions were -1 or much lower

Interactions basically leave us with two possible mafia pairings: Seven/jimbob and Wam/moody. I think most other pairings are very unlikely.

This is a bit of hard metagaming, but as I mentioned previously, I find it very interesting that Seven claimed his role is just "Phoenix", whereas all of the town roles are descriptive of their mechanics (and bessie's is not).

This is what I'm confident with...

Town
4. laserguy: The Fab five, town Double-voting one shot resurrector
6. BoomFrog: Ellen Ripley, town Jack of All Trades
9. patzer: Dr Daniel Jackson, town Mafia Cop.
10. suzaku: Town or cult recruit only
11. Zenni: Very unlikely claim comes from mafia or cult
8. somitomi: Almost certainly Town if Suzaku is.

Survivor
3. bessie: Cryonicist, independent Antisocial Survivor

Contains 3 scum and 1 town
1. Seven
2. moody7277
5. jimbob
7. wam

We have four living town, probably two living mafia and one living cultist.

A couple scenarios to consider.
Case 1: All of Zenni's results are true and accurate.
---Scum team is exactly Seven/jimbob. Somi is cleared as Town, implying Suzaku is fully cleared as well. Cult leader is one of wam/moody, probably wam. This scenario implies that jimbob's death was due to some undisclosed non-mafia ability (e.g. BoomFrog PGO as speculated by bessie).

Case 2: Somitomi is cult/godfather, all other Zenni results are true and accurate.
---This scenario is actually impossible as there must be at least one cultist and the only one that fits is Suzaku, but we have a Town result on Suzaku.

Case 3: At least one of Zenni's results was manipulated:
---If only somi result was manipulated, we get the same as case 2. If only the Suzaku result was manipulated, then it was manipulated in a way that does nothing, and we are left with Town!somi and Town!Suzaku. If only the Seven result was manipulated, then Seven/jimbob are presumably Town and probably we have cult!somi. Or Seven is recruit and jimbob is cult leader.

Case 4: Zenni is scum and/or insane in some way:
---None of Zenni's results can be trusted. Zenni is not super likely to be scum. Cult!TSS probably would not have claimed. They weren't in any danger particularly, and fabricating a bunch of results doesn't seem like a good strategy for cult leader specifically, or newbie scum in general. I'm not really sure who would have put mafia!TSS up to the idea of claiming in this manner as it seems a very dubious strategy. Simplest explanation is TSS is Town. I guess we can't rule out that Zenni is cult leader and also a cop with accurate results, though I still don't really see the value in doing so. Possible that all of TSS results are wrong in some very specific way where everything works out as well.


These are the possible scenarios, in order of probability.
-jimbob/Seven are mafia and one of wam/moody are cult
-Both wam/moody are mafia AND both Seven/jimbob are cult AND Zenni's result on Seven is wrong.
-Both wam/moody are mafia AND somitomi/Suzaku are cult AND ALL of Zenni's results are wrong.

Also, I suck and I probably resurrected scum and I'm sorry about that FWIW, I think moody is Town and it's jim/Seven + Wam.

[moody7277]

IIRC, tradition is that town power roles lose their power if recruited. Obviously if he were killed, we'd more likely be screwed.

[Seven]

Laser you really think I would try to endgame town by trying to trick everyone into not seeing that a cult elim would lead to mafia victory?

And if you think that is what I was trying to do, why would Jim be my partner if he wasn't included in the count?

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be.

[Seven]

IIRC, tradition is that town power roles lose their power if recruited. Obviously if he were killed, we'd more likely be screwed.

Either way there wouldn't be a double voter in lylo so what you said is irrelevant.

[LaserGuy]

Laser you really think I would try to endgame town by trying to trick everyone into not seeing that a cult elim would lead to mafia victory?

And if you think that is what I was trying to do, why would Jim be my partner if he wasn't included in the count?

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be.

No, I think you scumslipped in a different way. You knew there was only one mafia, so the scenario of town being endgamed by mafia at that point never crossed your mind.

[Seven]

Laser you really think I would try to endgame town by trying to trick everyone into not seeing that a cult elim would lead to mafia victory?

And if you think that is what I was trying to do, why would Jim be my partner if he wasn't included in the count?

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be.

No, I think you scumslipped in a different way. You knew there was only one mafia, so the scenario of town being endgamed by mafia at that point never crossed your mind.

Ah. Reasonable.

[Seven]

Well I think wam is Mafia and you think he is cult so it should be optimal to try to flip there since it solves the rest? (I haven't had caffeine yet today so don't have the drive to look at the numbers, I'll leave that to you).

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I'm going to need to think about LaserGuy's case for town Zenii.

@LaserGuy, of the four cases you outlined, which do you think is most likely the case? I personally don't see it being any but case 4 or some variant of it for town!Zenii. Also, why are you confident we don't have cult leader somi, with recruit Suzaku? Finally, I object to being given buddy points for not voting heury, when I said I would be online at deadline, and that I supported a heury elimination...

Going to bed now.

[Seven]

Laser you really think I would try to endgame town by trying to trick everyone into not seeing that a cult elim would lead to mafia victory?

And if you think that is what I was trying to do, why would Jim be my partner if he wasn't included in the count?

You're making this more complicated than it needs to be.

No, I think you scumslipped in a different way. You knew there was only one mafia, so the scenario of town being endgamed by mafia at that point never crossed your mind.

Ah. Reasonable.

Actually, you're saying you think my perspective was this right?
4-1-1 today
3-1 tomorrow (eliminate cult leader then night kill town)

so no it actually isn't reasonable. if i was under the impression that only one mafia was alive then scumslip!me would have been primed to slip in the opposite direction, that of us having the numbers to be flexible.

[LaserGuy]

I'm going to need to think about LaserGuy's case for town Zenii.

@LaserGuy, of the four cases you outlined, which do you think is most likely the case?

Occam's Razor suggests Case 1 is most probable. Case 2 is actually impossible. Reading it over, my logic for case 3 is not actually completely correct. We can have either 1) both Suzaku and somi results were manipulated (and therefore both are scum); 2) only one of Suzaku/somi results are manipulated (both are still Town as per case 2); 3) Result on Seven only is manipulated, implies that somi/Suzaku are Town. If Seven is actually Town, then scum is exactly {jimbob, wam, moody}, and you are not cult leader. If Seven is actually cult recruit and not mafia, then we have scum is cult jimbob/Seven and scum moody/Wam.

I personally don't see it being any but case 4 or some variant of it for town!Zenii. Also, why are you confident we don't have cult leader somi, with recruit Suzaku?

We have a N1 town result on somitomi, and a post-rez N4 town result on Suzaku. We know that somi rezzed Suzaku. Logically, the only reason cult!somi would do so is if he were intending/able to recruit. Given that the Town result on Suzaku is true, somi is Town independent of Zenni's result. Likewise, given that the town result on somi is true, Suzaku is Town independent of the N3 result. This scenario is possible if we either have both results manipulated or mafia!Zenni.

Finally, I object to being given buddy points for not voting heury, when I said I would be online at deadline, and that I supported a heury elimination...

Even if I retract the +1 from that, you/heury are still a high probability pairing. But there is still a material difference between saying you support the yeet and actually voting. If a player only has 4 votes of 7, people may be more in the mood to consider swinging the vote than if it's 5/7 or 6/7, where, beyond a certain point due to timezones, etc. people may feel the yeet is inevitable.

[LaserGuy]

No, I think you scumslipped in a different way. You knew there was only one mafia, so the scenario of town being endgamed by mafia at that point never crossed your mind.

Ah. Reasonable.

Actually, you're saying you think my perspective was this right?
4-1-1 today
3-1 tomorrow (eliminate cult leader then night kill town)

so no it actually isn't reasonable. if i was under the impression that only one mafia was alive then scumslip!me would have been primed to slip in the opposite direction, that of us having the numbers to be flexible.

Here's the logic:

Scum!Seven sees it as 4-1-1. He calculates as follows:
-If I am yeeted, game is over for me and I don't care who wins.
-If Town is yeeted we go to 3-1-1. If cult recruits overnight and I hit town, we go to 1-1-2 and I lose. If I kill cult, we go to 3-1 MYLO and I have winning chances. If we misyeet, I kill Town, cult fails to recruit, we go to 2-1-1 MYLO and I still have winning chances.
-If cult is yeeted, we go to 4-1, I kill overnight and it's 3-1 MYLO and I have winning chances.

Therefore, the best play is to yeet cult. If we hit Town, hopefully I can PoE the cult leader and kill them overnight.


Town!Seven sees it as 3-2-1. He calculates as follows:
-If Town is yeeted, it goes 2-2-1. Town loses as it will be either 2-2-0 after NK or 1-2-1 or 0-2-2. Unclear if mafia or cult wins in the third scenario.
-If mafia is yeeted, it goes 3-1-1, following the same logic as above, either cult wins or it is MYLO and Town has winning chances.
-If cult is yeeted, it goes to 3-2. Town loses instantly after the NK.

Therefore, the best play is to yeet mafia since it's the only realistic path we have to win.

[LaserGuy]

Random aside: I would be really amused if Wam did turn out to be cult leader, since he had exactly the same problem in TIL mafia where he was a neighborizer and was never able to get anyone to join him because he recruited the NK every single night for the entire game.

[Seven]

Ah. Reasonable.

Actually, you're saying you think my perspective was this right?
4-1-1 today
3-1 tomorrow (eliminate cult leader then night kill town)

so no it actually isn't reasonable. if i was under the impression that only one mafia was alive then scumslip!me would have been primed to slip in the opposite direction, that of us having the numbers to be flexible.

Here's the logic:

Scum!Seven sees it as 4-1-1. He calculates as follows:
-If I am yeeted, game is over for me and I don't care who wins.
-If Town is yeeted we go to 3-1-1. If cult recruits overnight and I hit town, we go to 1-1-2 and I lose. If I kill cult, we go to 3-1 MYLO and I have winning chances. If we misyeet, I kill Town, cult fails to recruit, we go to 2-1-1 MYLO and I still have winning chances.
-If cult is yeeted, we go to 4-1, I kill overnight and it's 3-1 MYLO and I have winning chances.

Therefore, the best play is to yeet cult. If we hit Town, hopefully I can PoE the cult leader and kill them overnight.


Town!Seven sees it as 3-2-1. He calculates as follows:
-If Town is yeeted, it goes 2-2-1. Town loses as it will be either 2-2-0 after NK or 1-2-1 or 0-2-2. Unclear if mafia or cult wins in the third scenario.
-If mafia is yeeted, it goes 3-1-1, following the same logic as above, either cult wins or it is MYLO and Town has winning chances.
-If cult is yeeted, it goes to 3-2. Town loses instantly after the NK.

Therefore, the best play is to yeet mafia since it's the only realistic path we have to win.

Ok

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Unvote

Something occurred to me this morning, possibly triggered by LaserGuy's comments.

@Zenii, could you claim your role name again. Going off of memory, TSS seemed confused what their role name was, and I have a theory that's occurred to me about your role, so I want to double check it before explaining. by role name, I mean something like BoomFrog's Jack of All Trades. Also, to confirm, you definitely got Mafia/Town results so far and not some variation that you interpreted as such? Does your role PM explicitly say you get faction results?

If my theory is correct, Zenii could well be town, hence the unvote. I've lost track of votals though, so not voting, for risk of accidental hammer etc.

Other general thoughts: I can't shake my former life feeling of moody being scum and wam town. This is only plausible for a moody!cult leader situation, if my earlier analysis is right (it might not be).

I'm uncertain whether Cult is really a threat due to apparent lack of successful recruits. This could indicate that something is stopping the Cult. On the other hand, the Cult Leader could just be unlucky. We're probably in either 4-2-1 or 5-1-1. In either case, there's a chance it's just a lonely recruit remaining of the Cult (i.e. Suzaku, from my point of view). If the former, and Cult does recruit successfully, we end up at 2-2-2 if we misleet and the night kill hits town. Not game over, but not ideal (we'd need to leet mafia and hope mafia NKed the Cult Leader). I'm inclined to vote moody, based on this.

[Suzaku]

No time right now (will have time later in the evening).

Quick update:

[Suzaku]

Unofficial Votals:

Seven (3) - Zenni, LaserGuy
Zenni (1) - Seven

Not voting: moody7277, Suzaku, Wam, jimbob

With seven players alive, four votes required to elim.

Seven is at yeet-1

Posted since the last vote on Seven (LaerGuy, in this post:
LaserGuy
moody (underline vote)
Seven
jimbob
Suzaku

Not posted:
Wam
Zenni

Not sure if the lack of a quickhammer speaks to alignments, caution, confusion over votals, or timezones.

LG/Zenni would you consider unvoting to avoid quickhammer?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I don't think we're going to see a quickhammer today, unless a Mafia player knows their goose is cooked already. Setup spec suggests that no team is in a position where a quickhammer is useful.

Vote moody

[Suzaku]

I'll take you word on that one - haven't had time to digest LG's numbers yet.

[Zeniba]

You think Mafia would have an extra super NK and self rez? If I'd been Seven's claimed role, I'd likely have tried to hold back the super kill until using it (in addition to the regular NK) would cause Town to lose.

Is the super NK confirmed or just claimed?

I think my cop check result and Seven's unaccounted-for resurrection is more likely to point to mafia!Seven than the infinitely more complicated and absurd result of town!Seven having a super kill which he hasn't used, a mysterious likely self rez as town when eliminated, something that is generally scummy, AND somehow Seven led to a fake result on my cop check.