Trust Fall Mafia - Day 2

[Deadbananas0]

I want to remind everyone that Bop is also a strong player and only was caught in our last game due to a mechanical error. He was top town there. I think it's odd that Bop would put Moody in the same section as myself and Kay, Moody felt townie early in the game but not enough that he would be close to top town. Then it felt weird for him to say that Moody is playing similarly to that game, when he isn't. Why do him and I see something different here? Alignment. I almost town read him based on his play here but it's enough to just pass as a safe option. Besides that, he is playing just fine. I'm not liking that he went into a whole breakdown in response to my asking to talk about Moody.

this is actually news to me, coming from you and Bessie, from how you were treating them at the start I assumed they were a newer player like me.

[EGW]

Walk me through this. You'd have preferred I had done less looking into it?

I was expecting a paragraph or so, but a whole breakdown feels like you need to convince others that Moody is town if you are scum with him. The behavior was while being confirmed town, so that doesn't count for your analysis here. Plus you overlooked his play in Day 1. Why didn't you look at Day 1 of that game when we are in Day 1 now?

[EGW]

this is actually news to me, coming from you and Bessie, from how you were treating them at the start I assumed they were a newer player like me.

Bop is a returning player, but this is my second game playing with them. However, they did very well in our previous game. This is why Mak has reservations about Bop. You are reading the Tales game so you can see for yourself.

[Deadbananas0]

Yah I assumed wrong. Definitely seeing more talk about them being strong in Tales.

However, I think you should probably chill for an hour or so on Bop. I understand the worry, and there are some odd pinging things, but give it some time. I'm going to do some other things and think about it for a while. I don't want to blow up a good thing and scramble to something end of day on a mild disagreement.

[Bop]

this is actually news to me, coming from you and Bessie, from how you were treating them at the start I assumed they were a newer player like me.

Quick History-Tales was my first game in over a decade but I used to play on the old xkcd forums back in the early 2010s so I have a game history but only the one example of recent history

Walk me through this. You'd have preferred I had done less looking into it?

I was expecting a paragraph or so, but a whole breakdown feels like you need to convince others that Moody is town if you are scum with him. The behavior was while being confirmed town, so that doesn't count for your analysis here. Plus you overlooked his play in Day 1. Why didn't you look at Day 1 of that game when we are in Day 1 now?

"So that doesn't count" doesn't make any sense for me. How does it not count more to have a pure example of behavior from a confirmed townie to compare to? It's "what would moody be like if he only had to solve and didn't have to worry about getting miselimmed".

The question is easy. I didn't look at all: I'm going off of recent memory from Tales and since Moody was stumped night one most of what I remember is from after. I did so much extra reading in Tales for meta purposes and I'm hoping to not have to do that here.

[moody7277]

The underlined sections are also wrong here. I didn't plan to fall with EGW, I planned to vote EGW, and Bop somi was my plan before that.

Please tell me the difference between voting for someone and not wanting to trust fall with them, seeing in my mind voting for someone is in this game expressing a desire to trust fall with them.

And about Bop, yeah he mentioned in Tales that he was on the old xkcd forum under a different name a long time back, and I actually played in a rather insane game with him at one point.

[Deadbananas0]

Please tell me the difference between voting for someone and not wanting to trust fall with them, seeing in my mind voting for someone is in this game expressing a desire to trust fall with them.

I vote EGW today. With no expectation they vote me in return, this would be purely to solidify a stronger town reading on EGW, since they plan to last longer as town, and I think having them being more clear would be helpful in trusting their reads, and making for a good final day decision, in bessie EGW, two people who could have left the game earlier.

[moody7277]

So EGW having the opportunity to vote for you but not doing so would make him look townie similar to how we're treating the situation with bessie vis-a-vis heury?

[EGW]

"So that doesn't count" doesn't make any sense for me. How does it not count more to have a pure example of behavior from a confirmed townie to compare to? It's "what would moody be like if he only had to solve and didn't have to worry about getting miselimmed".

The question is easy. I didn't look at all: I'm going off of recent memory from Tales and since Moody was stumped night one most of what I remember is from after. I did so much extra reading in Tales for meta purposes and I'm hoping to not have to do that here.

He also didn't have his vote, so he likely didn't feel the need to voice his opinions at all. I'll ask you this: Why wasn't he acting like that on Day 1 before being confirmed then? I would concede if he did, you would have more of a point. But he didn't. Plus this is only one town game I'm referring to. He doesn't usually slack off like that.

[EGW]

So EGW having the opportunity to vote for you but not doing so would make him look townie similar to how we're treating the situation with bessie vis-a-vis heury?

He wanted to create a lockclear for me since he felt his vote was useless at the time. I told him that wasn't necessary, and I would rather he keep his vote open in case we need him to fall at deadline. So essentially, he didn't want to fall with me, he just wanted to risk the 50/50 and hope I didn't vote back.

[EGW]

However, I think you should probably chill for an hour or so on Bop. I understand the worry, and there are some odd pinging things, but give it some time. I'm going to do some other things and think about it for a while. I don't want to blow up a good thing and scramble to something end of day on a mild disagreement.

With this game we'll never get a flip so I have to make my concerns loud and clear. As I said, besides that, his play seems fine. Usually if he is scum with Moody, I would say that upon Moody flipping scum, Bop would be scum. However we don't have the luxury of gaining information from scumflips. However, I don't want Bop nor Moody to fall today. At the very least, I don't want Moody falling ever this game.

[somitomi]

Apologies, I decided to waste my Saturday on travelling quite far to not look at a used motorcycle. Catchup post

Yet we can control who flip, as long as people don't deviate. Usually mafia control that pace with night kills, but they don't have that leverage in this game. So I'm curious what pairs you are comfortable with.

Tough one. I think EGW/Deadbananas or Kay/Mak are pairings I'd be most comfortable with today, I want bessie to stay until tomorrow (but I'm fine with her falling then), Heury and moody are who I consider to be off limits at this time.

From the post here viewtopic.php?p=92914#p92914, I didn't think you had made that same mistake, and I'm not sure where somi said he thought bessie wasn't playing. deadbananas OTOH posted a couple of different times, so it appeared to me he was the only one who thought that which made it a lot more weird. Also with familiarity about you're play style, I'm a lot more forgiving of early game weirdness.

Ok, I think that tracks, I didn't mention bessie not playing until I realised my error on P3.
I do find it a little curious that EGW had to pester you about this

Re Deadbanana's EGW town gambit-plenty of players already have indicated trust for EGW. He wouldn't really need the extra "this would help clear me" and him turning it down honestly sells him to me more already so it halfway already worked. I do love the presentation of it.

I agree

I’m glad you feel this way at this point. I’m also not a fan of “I’m not helpful in the endgame, I guess I should just fall out *shrug*” (yes this is exaggerated, I’m being a bit sassy) after the low content/engagement.

Yeah, I had the same thought

Since both town and scum want to fall out, the intent itself is NAI. On the scum side, wanting to get out while reads are still forming would be a sound strategy and lead to wanting an early exit. On the town side, it would be better if players who are just barely seen as town to leave so the endgame can include the most town read players. Your aggregate would seem to contradict what I figured about Mak not fitting with that second category. In my readthrough of you, you also seemed concerned with scum playing a long con.

Whille I do agree with the sentiment of keeping around some strong town players for endgame, the logic that "barely town" players should flip sounds crazy to me. You don't avoid a risky situation later by doing the risky situation now, you avoid it by winning before the risky situation.

I don’t want greedy to fall today. I have a weird feeling. It’s eating at me but something feels off.

I just don't want them to fall today because they haven't done much, but if I'm not mistaken you know them better than I do.

I don’t see all the town leans on somi but I haven’t reread yet

You dare to doubt my magnificence?

I will be online at deadline and will vote for Heury if there are no other votes to ensure an elimination

I’m hugely against this. Please (everyone) we need to figure out what to do today.

I’m trusting EGW here on this read in case I’m overly paranoid but is somi/bananas viable for anyone?

Get out of my head, that line set off alarms.

I'm gonna go shower now, but will be back shortly and then have about an hour or so before I need to bed.

[EGW]

Why is this a concern for you? Moody was higher on their reads list so it makes sense they would want Moody to fall over somi?

This question was answered in my post by the way. I'll restate it though, just felt odd that Bop placed them in that section, to push them as a fall candidate, and has pushed them often. That's what stuck out to me.

[moody7277]

Okay, so here's the strategy I'm envisioning with the barely town players first paradigm:

We have scum S1 & S2
We have town T1-T8

Ordering town as T1 being scummiest looking town player through T8 being towniest town who ever lived.
3 2-town trust falls being necessary for town to win

It would seem to me that the most critical fall will be the third at which point we would (hopefully) be going from 4/2 to 2/2. At that point I would like town to have the easiest decision, namely T7 and T8 be the third fall. Concurrently, being that there will still be two town left at the end, I think those should be T1 and T2 being as they will likely be nearly indistinguishable from S1 and S2 (your skill level may vary). It therefore makes sense that the falls should proceed:

D1: T3-T4
D2: T5-T6
D3: T7-T8

The tricky bit is of course if S1 and S2 are skilled enough to make themselves look townier than T1 and T2. Hopefully, they aren't able to out-townie T3 or T4.

[Deadbananas0]

I will be online at deadline and will vote for Heury if there are no other votes to ensure an elimination

I’m hugely against this. Please (everyone) we need to figure out what to do today.

I’m trusting EGW here on this read in case I’m overly paranoid but is somi/bananas viable for anyone?

This is really funny from Kay, because I think universally most people are against me leaving. + town points, feeling good on Kay.

However, I think you should probably chill for an hour or so on Bop. I understand the worry, and there are some odd pinging things, but give it some time. I'm going to do some other things and think about it for a while. I don't want to blow up a good thing and scramble to something end of day on a mild disagreement.

With this game we'll never get a flip so I have to make my concerns loud and clear. As I said, besides that, his play seems fine. Usually if he is scum with Moody, I would say that upon Moody flipping scum, Bop would be scum. However we don't have the luxury of gaining information from scumflips. However, I don't want Bop nor Moody to fall today. At the very least, I don't want Moody falling ever this game.

Understandable, I'll trust you on that for now. Who is your top alternative that's feasible? We are rapidly running out of people lol. I really get not wanting to vote, but end of the day, we have to do it.

Somi are you still against voting at all today? Since you are only here for another hour.

This question was answered in my post by the way. I'll restate it though, just felt odd that Bop placed them in that section, to push them as a fall candidate, and has pushed them often. That's what stuck out to me.

Yah, I just wanted to see if it was about your general read of Moody, or them having a disagreement on it, I understand now it was you felt Moody being so high was odd.

[Deadbananas0]

Okay, so here's the strategy I'm envisioning with the barely town players first paradigm:

We have scum S1 & S2
We have town T1-T8

Ordering town as T1 being scummiest looking town player through T8 being towniest town who ever lived.
3 2-town trust falls being necessary for town to win

It would seem to me that the most critical fall will be the third at which point we would (hopefully) be going from 4/2 to 2/2. At that point I would like town to have the easiest decision, namely T7 and T8 be the third fall. Concurrently, being that there will still be two town left at the end, I think those should be T1 and T2 being as they will likely be nearly indistinguishable from S1 and S2 (your skill level may vary). It therefore makes sense that the falls should proceed:

D1: T3-T4
D2: T5-T6
D3: T7-T8

The tricky bit is of course if S1 and S2 are skilled enough to make themselves look townier than T1 and T2. Hopefully, they aren't able to out-townie T3 or T4.

I kinda understand this, I think I've thought somewhat similar earlier.

But I think reads change and develop, certain slots get easier to sort with time.

[Deadbananas0]

Tough one. I think EGW/Deadbananas or Kay/Mak are pairings I'd be most comfortable with today, I want bessie to stay until tomorrow (but I'm fine with her falling then), Heury and moody are who I consider to be off limits at this time.

What brought up Mak from neutral, or is that just PoE?

[EGW]

Understandable, I'll trust you on that for now. Who is your top alternative that's feasible? We are rapidly running out of people lol. I really get not wanting to vote, but end of the day, we have to do it.

Somi/Banana > Kay/Bessie > Mak/Greedy. I will be at deadline though, and as I told Kay, if I ever have to exit due to emergency, my condition is that Moody never exits. If bop ever exits and flips scum, this makes that even more so of a danger. Hopefully Kay is able to find and explain what doubts she has about Greedy by then, if so Heury would have to take Greedy's spot there. With Moody never exiting, I'm sure y'all can figure out the rest.

[Deadbananas0]

Fuck. I'm willing to vote tonight, problem is I don't think most people want me to. I also don't think Somi wants to exit.
For my part, Somi/Kay > EGW/(either of the above 2, I want to say Bop here I know you wouldn't like it, but I trust them, and if they do flip scum we have your Moody read) > Bessie/Mak (I really am sus on Mak, but I think I'm most worried about being mates with bessie).

You really think greedy is town enough here? I'm not as sold on scum as before...I just feel like I need more before I'm comfortable with them leaving.

[Deadbananas0]

I'm going to be playing online with some friends starting like 3 hours before deadline. Should be able to read and post a bit but will be distracted. If I have to flip, I want people to vote Heury at some point. I'm really fucking sure on Heury.

[EGW]

We still have time to discuss. I liked Greedy's response to me, and I liked their point about being able to have a clearer mind in terms of opinions when he isn't pressuring them himself. This is because a person that is outside of all the hullaballoo will have less ego with the reads and less confirmation bias, therefore more accuracy. This just depends on how good Greedy's reads are on Day 2. Hold him to what he said. Also of course, Kay knows Greedy more than us so we have to factor that in mind as well.

[Deadbananas0]

So EGW having the opportunity to vote for you but not doing so would make him look townie similar to how we're treating the situation with bessie vis-a-vis heury?

EGW already answered, but yah basically. You can see my full logic in the post I quoted.

[somitomi]

The tricky bit is of course if S1 and S2 are skilled enough to make themselves look townier than T1 and T2. Hopefully, they aren't able to out-townie T3 or T4.

Okay, I guess that makes sense, although I am worried that if we start with the low town, then mafia doesn't have to out-town actual town for that long, making it easier for them to slip out.

Somi are you still against voting at all today? Since you are only here for another hour.

I wasn't against it as much as I didn't consider myself to be in the town core that would be eligible.

[EGW]

Looking for sanity checks on moody tho esp from bessie, and kay. I think EGW already said he trusts moody

I'm no longer comfortable with Moody falling today. Somi/Banana > Kay/Bessie > Mak/Greedy is what I'm feeling comfortable with now. We have around 4 hours to deadline now. I'm going to eat some food now, and I will be around for deadline as well.

[Deadbananas0]

We still have time to discuss. I liked Greedy's response to me, and I liked their point about being able to have a clearer mind in terms of opinions when he isn't pressuring them himself. This is because a person that is outside of all the hullaballoo will have less ego with the reads and less confirmation bias, therefore more accuracy. This just depends on how good Greedy's reads are on Day 2. Hold him to what he said. Also of course, Kay knows Greedy more than us so we have to factor that in mind as well.

Yes, I also liked Greedy's response to my questions, but just...don't want someone to slip out by being able to give a few good answers? And the Kay sus on them. I suppose I could prefer Greedy - you over Mak Bessie, as something you'd be more willing to go for than Bop? Think Greedy has similar problems as me. Let me do a quick re-read of them.