Trust Fall Mafia - Day 1

[Makhaira]

Looking for sanity checks on moody tho esp from bessie, and kay. I think EGW already said he trusts moody

[Deadbananas0]

Anyone who wants to get some headway on pocketing me can point out the absolute worst case scenario of a rand fall btw to prove youre using your town POV thinking cap!

because two...... hmmm....two....town? could leave? is that right?

[Deadbananas0]

I think we should do a pair of either me EGW or Kay with either bessie or moody this phase

We dont pair me egw or kay unless we are desperate and at deadline IMO

what makes you feel Bessie is a good choice this phase, vs waiting till next phase?

[Deadbananas0]

Also walk me through Kay Mak?

[Makhaira]

Anyone who wants to get some headway on pocketing me can point out the absolute worst case scenario of a rand fall btw to prove youre using your town POV thinking cap!

because two...... hmmm....two....town? could leave? is that right?

I hope this is a joke lol

[Makhaira]

I think we should do a pair of either me EGW or Kay with either bessie or moody this phase

We dont pair me egw or kay unless we are desperate and at deadline IMO

what makes you feel Bessie is a good choice this phase, vs waiting till next phase?

I think bessie is stronger in early and midgame than endgame and I think she is the lowest risk slot in the game rn to flip scum

[Makhaira]

Also walk me through Kay Mak?

I think ive pretty clearly laid out what I like about kay so far so Im not sure what youre asking for here but happy to rehash/summarize again when I have more time tonight

[Deadbananas0]

For sure, doing a full reread rn, taking a break on page 9, i think reading all the posts may have made me forget your earlier Kay read, I'll get specifics to you for tonight.

[Makhaira]

Can you atleast confirm your reply to the worst case scenario post was a joke?

[Deadbananas0]

Yep just joking with yah, I understand the risk, I'm full avoid Randoms going at all cost

[EGW]

Mak I want you in end game because you get stronger as the phases continue.

[Makhaira]

But ran im over multitabbed rn I need respite ;_;

I hear you tho and wont be selfish if people want me to play endgame

[Makhaira]

Yep just joking with yah, I understand the risk, I'm full avoid Randoms going at all cost

care to try a real answer then? There is infact a single worst case outcome and it can be calculated. Atleast according to the plain language of the rules as written

[EGW]

Yeah I just want to create a town stacked lylo however possible.

[Deadbananas0]

Yep just joking with yah, I understand the risk, I'm full avoid Randoms going at all cost

care to try a real answer then? There is infact a single worst case outcome and it can be calculated. Atleast according to the plain language of the rules as written

You should be able to get that I know from my joke post, the worst case is pretty obvious. I find it kinda odd your harping on this much.

But yes, I'm in favor if we haven't had a pair before like 30 minutes before deadline, whoevers online should just vote each other.

[Makhaira]

Heard bananas tone over the internet is hard and I wasnt entirely sure what you were trying to convey but Im giving you the benefit of the doubt here and wont harp on jt further

I do be a harper tho fr fe

[Deadbananas0]

No your fine, I think it's worth reminding people about. I just found the method kinda odd and was mildly concerned you were trying to reverse pocket me. Sorry if I came out harsh.

For everyones sake:
Randing 2 elims means both mafia could leave and the game would end, just something to keep in mind if your online and its almost deadline and we don't have pairs, or one half of the pair has initiated and the other half hasn't responded

[Makhaira]

2.22% chance of instant mafia win if we rand the falls

Roughly 35% chance of exactly one mafia exiting

[Makhaira]

Please double check my math but Im pretty confidant those are accurate figures

[Deadbananas0]

Your right, and a roughly 38% chance total their will be mafia on any random 2 selection. Plus this would give us limited workable information for the next day.

[Deadbananas0]

reread notes, feel free to skip

Kay totally Ignored Heury's vote -
Bop + for reaction to Heury vote
EGW and Bop talk about previous gameplay together, EGW wants to see Bop post more, should ask if they have, I should've asked what more meant exactly back then.
Kay asks greedy if they are town, greedy says probably - on both for this interaction
Bop does seem to have a more active presence, making reads, less clarification posts +
Heury and Greedy small back and forth on Greedy's kay interaction, feel its an unlikely team, aggressive to each other from the start
Somi - mainly interested in logic/ interested in how the game went previously, +
Kay likes me reading greedy as town
Moody comes out against Heury and Greedy, likes bop
Somi - showing some paranoia early on, also unlikely scum with bessie
I also really like this post from somi - viewtopic.php?p=92719#p92719, their joking with kay gives good vibes
Greedy misses Heury response viewtopic.php?p=92733#p92733, viewtopic.php?p=92653#p92653 unlikely scum pair, missing posts is fine, is odd early on, unless Greedy just didn't like the answer? Heury also didn't quote the post, so can't fault it too much.
+ on Bop viewtopic.php?p=92740#p92740, hoping to get some meta, and know if Bop is the type of player who could adapt so quickly to what EGW wanted as scum, or is just genuinely townie
Kay and Greedy interact some more - only people Greedy has really interacted with so far are Kay and Heury, Kay and Greedy seem to have played together, and not with anyone else here, could just be that?
Bessie emphasizes they "have" to give EGW a negative point just like everyone else, odd? or just the person they are most familiar with.
I still don't like this post from Kay viewtopic.php?p=92754#p92754, gonna skip past the other posts from Kay, and my discussion with EGW. Feel like this is where everything with EGW started going wrong, its clear we kept misunderstanding each other in communication.
viewtopic.php?p=92770#p92770 - EGW goes into why they think its unlikely s/s, if i had remembered this I would have brought it up when they went bessie heury, seems like they've changed on that now
Mak pushes chill in first post, kinda funny since they were the first to bring up the elim deadline later, also likes greedy
Mak has always been pretty eager to trust fall, first posts are about falling with whoever gets their commandments, then EGW, etc
EGW reacts paranoid towards it + points
We get Heury's first read post, goes into some of their logic on the vote, and has good reactions to bessiegate from those reasons
viewtopic.php?p=92799#p92799 - really like this post from Bop
viewtopic.php?p=92810#p92810 - actually I'm now kinda curious on this, I agreed initially, but, is anyone aware if seven usually starts the scum chats before the game, or when game starts? I think my past games scum chat generally started before the game day began? Could be wrong, been a while
viewtopic.php?p=92828#p92828 - does scumkay buss scum greedy with this here? I don't think so, they are the only person who knows their meta, and while there isn't much incentive to protect your scummates in these settings, you do need them to also exit to win.
viewtopic.php?p=92831#p92831 - mak also unlikely greedy partner
viewtopic.php?p=92832#p92832 - I like this mak post, because I agree lol
viewtopic.php?p=92834#p92834 - I like this bop post, specifically the bottom, difference of opinion, i think their opinion is probably more average town than mine
viewtopic.php?p=92840#p92840 - kay has always been unsure on me, kinda funny
Somi - continues to talk mainly about logic on bessie vote, but i like this post alot viewtopic.php?p=92893#p92893
Moody consistent on Mak from early on
viewtopic.php?p=92945#p92945 - like this post from moody
viewtopic.php?p=92957#p92957 - I like this post by kay, echoes my thoughts
viewtopic.php?p=93013#p93013 - what were these certain people, should've checked.
viewtopic.php?p=93020#p93020 - ah here's that post I missed... really odd cuz i remember responding to the above and reading the mak post below w/e
viewtopic.php?p=93027#p93027 - if you want a quick 2 post summary, laserguy lays out my broad play here https://smashboards.com/threads/wams-ch ... t-24346170 and nails me here https://smashboards.com/threads/wams-ch ... t-24348282
Somi and Kay both put each other as top, but both mention being unwilling to vote, odd?
Mak puts kay out of the fall pool viewtopic.php?p=93107#p93107
Bessie has some sus developing on me, looking forward to it, and anything else they talk about

Mak, re kay progression I see is:
viewtopic.php?p=92928&hilit=kay#p92928
viewtopic.php?p=92963&hilit=kay#p92963
viewtopic.php?p=93107#p93107 - in this one!
then
viewtopic.php?p=93174#p93174
Ah I see, i read out of the fall pool in the marked one and assumed it was because you didn't trust them, should've read more carefully. After my re-read I think I'm feeling better on Kay? I still have my reservations from my conundrum, but I don't think they'd be scum with greedy based on this post and Greedy is still my most likely scum.

New question for you then, I can understand why I take longer to sort, why bop? You seemed to initially have me pretty high on your list, and bop near the bottom, what changed there?

[KayJayQueue]

I don’t know if this helps or not but the “Bessie is going to hate me” wasn’t really specific to this game, it was a generalized sentiment about how our personalities might clash as mafia players due to play style and since I’m planning to stay and keep playing here, it was more of a lament that this could affect all games we play together not just this one.

[EGW]

What other pairs do you have in mind, Kay?

[KayJayQueue]

What other pairs do you have in mind, Kay?

I forgot who all said they didn’t want to vote today but I think any pair from you/bop/somi would be good. I don’t think I want Mak to go today. I have some lingering paranoia and if he’s town it’s good to keep him here another round anyway.

[Deadbananas0]

I'm probably going to miss you tonight Mak, took some time to proofread this post. We talk tomorrow.

Thanks Kay, that does actually make me feel better on you, on Bessie.

I have some more analysis, want to make a summary of re-read. Coming tomorrow though. I really believe in Bop Somi, I'd also prefer to avoid Mak today, if this flips before I wake up tomorrow. gn. We got this. Feed them to victory!