Trust Fall Mafia - Day 1

[EGW]

listen this is all fair but someone has to be last im not saying my reads are gospel here just kind of where Im at

Fair. I think you have Greedy to high with their current investment in the game, and Bop too low. I know you said you'll re-think it though.

[Makhaira]

I think if its town!bessie and town!moody finding one of them early is a great boon for town

[Makhaira]

listen this is all fair but someone has to be last im not saying my reads are gospel here just kind of where Im at

Fair. I think you have Greedy to high with their current investment in the game, and Bop too low. I know you said you'll re-think it though.

greedy's style naturally pockets me and bops does the opposite if that helps you understand better, its not much deeper than that

both are fucking sharks and I dont think either are good fall candidates rn

[Deadbananas0]

If you flipped town I'd say Greedy + Kay is my likely scum team, Greedy for same reasons as you, Kay because I'd say Mak otherwise, but I don't believe scum have been largely absent from major posts in the thread so far.

Mainly focused on seeing who people are willing to pair with, since that is going to be the more important factor, and the people who i'd like to ask for pairings, Mak, Greedy, Bessie, I have other questions asked of already. I figure you don't want to go anywhere soon, and I'm also likely sticking around for a while based on my aggregate score lol.

Also damn good explanation on your reads, thank you. They are why I asked the above question, if you really self resolve later, I'd rather work with you now and see if we can find some common ground to establish trust, or more concrete reasoning for analysis on each other.

Pair thought, avoiding Greedy, Moody, Kay, and Bessie as well I suppose, Somi Bop? Not asking you to commit for this as your top pair you want to see, just trying to find one we agree upon, under the assumption we are both town.

Heading to bed now, gn all.

[Makhaira]

theres so much focus on finding the town in this game incrementally by design but its also like easy to forget you can just solve the game and find the mates and then dance around them taunting the whole way

that shits harder with no votes and no nights though ugh this game is so well balance but in the most frustrating way to my hunting instincts

[Deadbananas0]

fuck mak just got online, I do have to go to bed. We need to catch each other online sometime Mak, I may be able to be up later tomorrow if that is your natural time for playing, I will probably be a little bit drunk, so I can't make promises.

[Makhaira]

I start my extreme weekend of work tomorrow so the last time I can probably have much input this day phase will be tomorrow, probably tomorrow night. I can’t make promises for Saturday and that’s our deadline. If there’s anything specific anyone wants me to address, please just bring my attention to it.

I wouldnt stress it I think you are out of the fall pool rn anyway and tbh I agree with you that I think saving you for endgame on balance is the move, really kind of counting on you not being scum here with this analysis but basically even with those odds considered I think its worth the gamble so yeah take I think just voice your big objections to anyone you dont want to see falling with anyone and we can consider that

[Makhaira]

fuck mak just got online, I do have to go to bed. We need to catch each other online sometime Mak, I may be able to be up later tomorrow if that is your natural time for playing, I will probably be a little bit drunk, so I can't make promises.

I am busy af during the week and only have time to play in the late evenings, something in short spurts over my lunch break

weekends I check in during a wider timespan

[EGW]

Also damn good explanation on your reads, thank you. They are why I asked the above question, if you really self resolve later, I'd rather work with you now and see if we can find some common ground to establish trust, or more concrete reasoning for analysis on each other.

If you are town, I think this is very good. I'm good with Somi + Bop. I can't deny that this is a town tell. You have a good night.

[Makhaira]

I think EGWs take on removal order economy trends town, hopefully yall get what I mean but I dont want to get too specific

if he's scum he is realllllly digesting the town POV and emulating it extremely quickly for never having played the setup so if its him I guess skill diff tbh for me and I just get btfod

wheres adum to tell me if this is "classic town ran energy" manifesting in one of its many forms. like I feel like adum has some connection to the platonic form of pure town ran energy lmao

[EGW]

that shits harder with no votes and no nights though ugh this game is so well balance but in the most frustrating way to my hunting instincts

I agree. The setup is very interesting though to try to puzzle through, but difficult because I feel we really do have to rely on our dayplay.

[Makhaira]

yeah its all dayplay and all kinda like pro LAMIST because mafia can't punish you going turbo mode townie with an NK, they just have to hope you just gtfo the game or that you're pocketable

[Makhaira]

this is pocket mafia

pokemaf

[Makhaira]

EGW why do you trust moody here to go with me, what do you think about him picking me specifically in response to my prompt?

[EGW]

My pairings are based on my trust levels. I think him listing you makes sense as you are his top town read, and I did the same with my Somi read in response to your prompt. I'd rather Moody go before Greedy a day phase before him because I don't want to risk them both leaving at the same time.

[EGW]

Deadbananas's recent most makes me worry about Greedy though. It's possible DB is just very paranoid of my slot. I don't like their townread of Heury. But I feel like Greedy does have scum equity here.

[Makhaira]

Does scum!moody actually try to pocket me this fast, I feel like thats a particularly bold move for scum!moody to go for so early in the game

[EGW]

I'm not familiar with his scum game, so I'm not sure as I haven't seen his scum play in a long time. I struggle with reading him so you might have a better idea if you have seen it.

[bessie]

Daily bark, picking up where I left off on page 5. I’m going to hurry through it to try and catch up, then do a more careful reading this weekend.

And anyone that knows bessie know that town bessie would never vote back early d1 or d1 at all. Not to be presumptious to assume I know what bessie or any player would do. But a solid start of rolling the dice and getting a lock town I think is a great start to the game.

Side note. It was my birthday! Got the Mistborn deck building game which is overall a very well done game.

Dammit, I realised this morning mafia wouldn't do this to town, because they'd just be giving someone a free "certified town" card. The only edge case is if Heury and bessie are mafia together.

Also, happ birf

I think I disagree with this. The part about mafia not doing this to town. I want to note this for now and try to get back to it later.

Gotcha, thank you for explaining.
For the record, while I do think Heury's action likely comes from town, I agree in that I personally would never do it as either alignment, and I don't think Heury is a good vote candidate for today. I'll get to thoughts about vote candidates later.

This struck me as an odd remark because for everyone but me Heury is totally off the table as a serious vote today.

Don't feel like you have to vote back at all today. Now that we know you're town, need your expertise and reads.

I don't like this from Heury, I can see how Huery could "know" Bessie is town, even if I disagree, but I don't think anyone else knows.

I want to note this for later because I feel there may be something for me to analyze here but I can’t quite articulate it yet.

Heury saying I’m lost and didn’t read the rules is highly annoying

Did I miss this? I need to look for it later.

If Bessie ever flips scum, isn’t it just heury? Why would scum not just take that out? That seems crazy that someone would have so much hubris to not take the sure out to instead stick around and try to puppet the game thread without ever getting caught before finding another time to get voted. Thats why this makes no sense as a s/s play. Bessie is town and if Bessie ever flips scum we just win imo and I don’t think that’s a real possibility. There’s a t/t possibility and a Heury scum, Bessie town possibly but I see almost zero chance that Heury is town while Bessie is scum.

I'm inclined to agree and given that I don't think bessie is the kind of player to pull a high risk ploy like this as misdirection, this puts me rather firmly in a bessie is town universe.

What makes you think I wouldn’t??? Like, am I not capable?????
Note: somi explained his thoughts a little more here: viewtopic.php?p=92893#p92893


Just starting page 8 and I’ve been reading for almost an hour I need to pick up the pace.

but yes its so all in and like motivated by wanting to flex at a fundamental level it basically requires a certain ego to go for that I wouldnt expect from heury nor bessie

Why?

I'm going to be an asshole and state it. Wam was scum in the previous game, got elimmed. It's possible he replaced out after realizing during sign ups that he got scum and noped out. I'm not going to bank it on this, which is why I think it's important to read Bessie by her content. But I'm impatient. Regardless, highly don't think either should be voted ever.

You’re totally wrong on Wam. Wam prefers playing as scum, and he’s a better scum player than town. Exact same for Madge, she prefers scum and is a better scum player. BoomFrog slightly prefers scum and is awesome as either.

BoomFrog if your’re reading this <3.

I just don’t know why s/s would do this and I don’t think Bessie would’ve agreed with it so it’d have to have just been Heury deciding to go rogue.

I do agree that it's more likely Heury didn't consult Bessie on this, knowing she is very busy, and is a replacement. I would think he'd decide solo in consideration of her already low time commitment. Plus it could possibly result in people clearing Bessie, which I think is a major mistake. Instead, keep an eye on her.

I do agree with this, I would be suspicious of someone that was clearing someone based on someone else’s actions alone. So George what have I myself done that is scummy?

Fortunately I'm happy to report I am town.

-1

holy shit I did not expect bessie to be the one to get this

have you actually seen the show??? or was this through detective work hahaha

true to my word I will trustfall with you at any point you wish

Unfortunately just good detective work. I looked for this episode online so I could watch it, but the only way seems to be to buy a subscription to Adult Swim. I found one episode I could buy on AppleTV and I think 5 episodes I could watch is I signed up in a different app but none of them were Surfer God.

Why would motivation be low?

Due to Wam replacing out during sign ups. Also, can you give some reads today?

Ok, you know that I dislike playing as scum, but what makes you think Heury does, especially after he just got a scum win in the last game? And I knida don’t like that you think either Heury or I wouldn’t put our all into any game regardless of alignment. You should know by now I how I feel about not only the integrity of the game but also about how highly I value my fellow players.


Page 12 almost there.

Bessie I know your busy, I feel bad asking questions since I know you'll catch up, but, outside of out of game reasons, what would be your chosen time to leave the game? Since I think if you are around tomorrow, almost everyone would think you are like 99% town not worth risking, would you think leaving then would be best, or later?

Ask me all the questions you want! I am a very reactive player so it’s easier for me to generate content if I have something to which to react! In general I have a townie meta and if people think I’m town, I should stick around for at least another day because I think it would be most beneficial to town to get someone with a scummier meta out of the game early. [Reference: an earlier post by moody that I don’t have time to go back and look for now.] However, I don’t think I should go to endgame because I have a notoriously bad record of choosing wrong when I’m in the three-way gunfight at the end.


Pages 13, 14 quick skim.


Hi George sorry I can’t talk tonight maybe tomorrow. I need to get some sleep.

[EGW]

Ok, you know that I dislike playing as scum, but what makes you think Heury does, especially after he just got a scum win in the last game? And I knida don’t like that you think either Heury or I wouldn’t put our all into any game regardless of alignment. You should know by now I how I feel about not only the integrity of the game but also about how highly I value my fellow players.

Fair enough, I think I just got ahead of myself there. Good point on Wam liking scum more than town as well. I think I'll wait for your reads. I'll retract the Wam point, which leaves me with a neutral read on you at the moment.

[EGW]

Hi George sorry I can’t talk tonight maybe tomorrow. I need to get some sleep.

No worries you sleep well.

[GreedyBanger]

Would never vote for heuristically_alone and think its almost certain Kay is town. Other reads still pretty underdeveloped without metas on people I guess. I wont be voting today or tomorrow regardless so i'm slow cooking.

What's the reasoning for Kay town, what do you expect her to do as town? (So I can improve my read on Kay, would help if Mak could give his 2 cents here as well) What's your explanation in regards to this post from Kay: post

I've played dozens of these games with Kay and she does NOT enjoy being scum. The rationale of "Hey i'd fall with you but i dont wanna stop playing so soon" is almost certainly coming from town sided Kay. It seems enough people in the game trust her that she will fall out at some point so i am not worried about the slot.

[EGW]

I've played dozens of these games with Kay and she does NOT enjoy being scum. The rationale of "Hey i'd fall with you but i dont wanna stop playing so soon" is almost certainly coming from town sided Kay. It seems enough people in the game trust her that she will fall out at some point so i am not worried about the slot.

Thank you. What's your response to this post in terms of Kay's assessment on you: post

[GreedyBanger]

If people can be aware we need a falling pair by tomorrow. I have no interest in being in it but arbitrary falls do not favour town.

[GreedyBanger]

I'm out of practice on remembering my forum games exist, as well as not feeling pressed to be townread when I am not voting today. It's not deeper than that. I'll do a deep dive slot by slot at the start of day 2 and people can get more informed opinions on me.