Trust Fall Mafia - Day 1

[KayJayQueue]

But with that in mind, it would still make bananas town in that scenario right? So while odd, unless you think it’s a bananas/bessie team, I don’t know if it helps us find a solve. So if bananas ever wants Bessie voted on let’s just say they can do it themselves if we are worried about that team being possible.

No, what's odd to me is the lack of caution when considering that Heury already locked their vote on that. I think Heury and Deadbananas are scum.

I like your thoughts here, but maybe I'm being paranoid, I'm sticking with my analysis here.

What exactly do you like here, and can you elaborate in what way you are being paranoid? Also, can you give me your updated read on Heury?

I went back to reread once I realized your scum team is heury/bananas and not heury/bessie but you just used that as reasoning for bananas’ logic being bad/scum motivated. I was speed reading so I responded too hastily.

[EGW]

All good. What's your current read on Deadbananas and Heury?

[KayJayQueue]

All good. What's your current read on Deadbananas and Heury?

I find Heury more sus than bananas right now but bananas is efforting a lot more so it’s hard to gauge if I think bananas is towny or if I’m purposely being overwhelmed with content in order to muddy the waters. I don’t know if I believe in a heury/bananas team though. I’ll have to reread bananas’ posts.

[EGW]

How do you feel about Deadbananas saying your interactions with bessie seem forced?

[Deadbananas0]

I like your thoughts here, but maybe I'm being paranoid, I'm sticking with my analysis here.

What exactly do you like here, and can you elaborate in what way you are being paranoid? Also, can you give me your updated read on Heury?

A good way to think about voting in this game is EVERY VOTE IS ALPHA STRIKABLE, not in the sense that every vote could be game ending (atleast not until one scum has escaped) but in that one errant vote can allow the scum to score and they only need to score twice to win

To that end, early votes are extra risky, which makess heury trend slightly >rand scum imo because only scum can vote "risk free" (its not that simple because of the opportunity cost of locking but for simplicity's sake this is my general mental model of the risk/reward in this format)

Bessie not immediately voting back and escaping trends >rand town for her. Scum have very little reason to hesitate taking the chance to escape if its offered unless they are sure their mate needs their support to get voted. But like if Im scum here and a townie gives me the chance to escape phase 1 you bet your ass Im taking that. 50% to a win after one phase is amazing IMO and Id expect my mate to carry their weight. You only have to pocket one person afterall

I liked the emphasis on votes being risky, and that both sides are incentivized to note vote early. Particularly, I liked that Mak gave their own thoughts on the subject, in a clearly well thought out post, engaging with the subject at hand, and I think discouraging people from voting frivolously is admirable.

I think I am more paranoid then Mak, in that they think scum has very little reason to hesistate, which while I think is true, I'm paranoid a smarter scum could be playing a more complicated game here.

My read on Heury is the same as before, I'll update it when he responds to this post


As for you, you seem to be focusing heavily on scum hunting, and getting others opinions on your proposed scum pair. Yet here:

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks. I think leaving the wrong people for endgame poses and even bigger problem in a way, given scum only need to convince one other non-paired player to fulfil their part of the wincon

Good point. Hello Mak.

You say you want strong town to go into the endgame, and I haven't seen any indication of you looking for people/providing reasoning on candidates you think would be a good match for this yet.

Your play seems like how you would typically play a normal game as town, but I haven't seen your adaption to the settings we are playing that you have said should be made.

Countering, Mak has actually seemed to adapt to the game we are in:
viewtopic.php?p=92814#p92814
viewtopic.php?p=92832#p92832

I would like to see some people you think are town in the future.

For the mean time, I'm picking up from Kay that I've been posting a lot and drowning the thread, so I'm going to take a step back from interacting with you on this front, because its not like I can push a wagon for you or you can do me visa versa, if it comes down to one of us being likely to leave today I can revisit.

[KayJayQueue]

How do you feel about Deadbananas saying your interactions with bessie seem forced?

I think that’s also an odd read but it could be paranoia. I don’t see anything looking forced and if it does it’s probably on my end not Bessie’s because I kept posting about it, not her. If bananas is trying to say Bessie is town, it makes no sense to give that read on me/bessie unless there’s lingering paranoia because of lack of info. Another reason I don’t really scumread bananas currently.

[somitomi]

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

I think you were also in Wam's chaos game.

Oh man, I knew your username was familiar but somehow it didn't click until now.

[KayJayQueue]

because its not like I can push a wagon for you or you can do me visa versa, if it comes down to one of us being likely to leave today I can revisit.

If this were a normal game, is this the route you’d be taking right now?

You say wagon pushing which would normally mean trying to vote scum but then you say one of you leaving which in this game means thinking they’re town. So which is it?

[EGW]

You say you want strong town to go into the endgame, and I haven't seen any indication of you looking for people/providing reasoning on candidates you think would be a good match for this yet. Your play seems like how you would typically play a normal game as town, but I haven't seen your adaption to the settings we are playing that you have said should be made.

My reads are still developing. I am focusing on scumhunting in the mean time, and then when I have a full reads list is when I'd consider that. For example, I still have Mak as neutral. I'm adapting to this game by not voting at all and going one step at a time. This is what I mean it feels like you are trying to force a scumread.

[EGW]

My other way of adapting is to talk reads with other players, because I feel convincing everyone of your read is important in this game.

[Deadbananas0]

because its not like I can push a wagon for you or you can do me visa versa, if it comes down to one of us being likely to leave today I can revisit.

If this were a normal game, is this the route you’d be taking right now?

You say wagon pushing which would normally mean trying to vote scum but then you say one of you leaving which in this game means thinking they’re town. So which is it?

No, I'm mixed on EGW. I like their their interaction after I brought up questions about joke posts, that felt genuine to me and alleviated that suspicion in my mind, doubly so now that I know they are Ran, since that seems in their meta. I don't like what i mentioned in the above, but Its something I want to see progress on.

In a normal game, I'd be asking peoples thoughts on this with EGW, and maybe voting them for pressure, but unvoting if it came close to a hammer.

For the last part, I'm saying I don't think being very aggressive on who you think is scum is going to be my strategy this game UNLESS it looks like someone else is planning to initiate a trust fall with them. I'm imagining most of our trust falls should be initiated like this for instance:

Me: I think somi is town for these reasons, I am willing to trust fall with them, somi what do you think about this idea? Additionally, what are everyones elses thoughts?

Then EGW could say: See my earlier posts about Deadbananas, I don't like these things, I don't think you should do it

---
So im saying I don't want to clog more things unless it gets to the point someone declares they want to trust fall with EGW. They are free to do whatever they want, I just want to be clear to them that If i don't respond to all the their future posts directed towards me, I'm not ignoring them, I'm just trying to not drown out the thread unless it matters.

[somitomi]

Ooops, please ignore accidental incomplete post.
Also, ninja'd by some folks

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

Man, it's annoying how flips with more useful information are not great news for town in this game.

I think you were also in Wam's chaos game.

Oh man, I knew your username was familiar but somehow it didn't click until now.

yah for sure I think theres a discussion to be had here, and any flip requires the involved parties ofc. For my part, I'd prefer the first flip to be something a bit riskier to get us more info, then do some safe flips based on that, I don't see any merit to saving risky flips until the very end, when they could get us info to work with in the next phase.
Like at this point my strongest TR is Somi, but I think us leaving the game would not give people much info to work on for the next day, itd just be the same process again, I think if we get stuck in that loop, chances of a mistake when it counts later is higher.

My brother in christ the goal here is not getting to the risky flips at all, the best game scenario is to flip the four townest towns to ever town and win. We don't gain anything by doing a risky flip now and putting ourselves halfway to a mafia victory.

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

Yes

[somitomi]

Goddamnit and somehow my responses got messed up too.
Don't have the same thread open on three different tabs, kids

The thing is if we get it wrong every flip after is a risky flip. Whereas if we make it to late game with two mafia the odds of getting it wrong go up, but the risk of one flipping is a warning and not a game over. Personally I'd way prefer late game to have worse odds but better outcomes.

Yes, this.

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

Makes sense

[EGW]

My general plan was to put the first person who voted me into the never vote pile btw. I plan on being here for a while.

Easy to say now to be fair but it is what it is

That would never work in this forum culture. I'm curious about your reads on Heury and Kay at the moment.

[EGW]

Goddamnit and somehow my responses got messed up too. Don't have the same thread open on three different tabs, kids

You say as I have six tabs up. Preview is your friend.

[Deadbananas0]

Re somi
Risky probably wasn't the correct word choice, I think I was using what others referred.

Bessie is likely to be town.
Bessie will give us the most useful information on a scum flip, and still good useful information on a town flip.

I dont think Bessie is mechanically clear, but the risk is worth the information, and they have a greater than most chance of being town in this scenario.

[EGW]

For the mean time, I'm picking up from Kay that I've been posting a lot and drowning the thread, so I'm going to take a step back from interacting with you on this front, because its not like I can push a wagon for you or you can do me visa versa, if it comes down to one of us being likely to leave today I can revisit.

That's fine. Give me your updated read on Kay before you go.

[KayJayQueue]

Re somi
Risky probably wasn't the correct word choice, I think I was using what others referred.

Bessie is likely to be town.
Bessie will give us the most useful information on a scum flip, and still good useful information on a town flip.

I dont think Bessie is mechanically clear, but the risk is worth the information, and they have a greater than most chance of being town in this scenario.

If Bessie ever flips scum, isn’t it just heury? Why would scum not just take that out? That seems crazy that someone would have so much hubris to not take the sure out to instead stick around and try to puppet the game thread without ever getting caught before finding another time to get voted. Thats why this makes no sense as a s/s play. Bessie is town and if Bessie ever flips scum we just win imo and I don’t think that’s a real possibility. There’s a t/t possibility and a Heury scum, Bessie town possibly but I see almost zero chance that Heury is town while Bessie is scum.

[heuristically_alone]

Ebwop

Re somi
Risky probably wasn't the correct word choice, I think I was using what others referred.

Bessie is likely to be town.
Bessie will give us the most useful information on a scum flip, and still good useful information on a town flip.

I dont think Bessie is mechanically clear, but the risk is worth the information, and they have a greater than most chance of being town in this scenario.

If Bessie ever flips scum, isn’t it just heury? Why would scum not just take that out? That seems crazy that someone would have so much hubris to not take the sure out to instead stick around and try to puppet the game thread without ever getting caught before finding another time to get voted. Thats why this makes no sense as a s/s play. Bessie is town and if Bessie ever flips scum we just win imo and I don’t think that’s a real possibility. There’s a t/t possibility and a Heury scum, Bessie town possibly but I see almost zero chance that Heury is town while Bessie is scum.

Big fan of this analysis. Town points

I don't think Heury is a good vote candidate for today. I'll get to thoughts about vote candidates later.

I'm literally not even an option today

What makes Moody different from Greedy here in your mind? Only post from Moody on it, is saying its overeager, and I saw Greedy posting their little gambit as a similar reaction.

Those reads are based on just reactions to me because I'm a narcissist. Greedy did not react to me at all and Moody did which is the difference.

There’s a Mistborn deck building game?????? Happy borthday heury

It's really satisfying. Different action cards have different metals to burn to play them and you can only burn so many metals each turn and each metal once.


I think we should incorporate some sort of "voting" mechanic to "vote" on top town reads and two players with top "votes" will then lock official votes on each other.

[GreedyBanger]

Would never vote for heuristically_alone and think its almost certain Kay is town. Other reads still pretty underdeveloped without metas on people I guess. I wont be voting today or tomorrow regardless so i'm slow cooking.

[somitomi]

You say as I have six tabs up. Preview is your friend.

And accidentally clicking the button to the right of "Preview" is my downfall

Re somi
Risky probably wasn't the correct word choice, I think I was using what others referred.

Bessie is likely to be town.
Bessie will give us the most useful information on a scum flip, and still good useful information on a town flip.

I dont think Bessie is mechanically clear, but the risk is worth the information, and they have a greater than most chance of being town in this scenario.

Part of me wants to keep nitpicking the wording here a bit, but I guess I generally agree that bessie is high probability town and fairly good contingency if we're wrong.

If Bessie ever flips scum, isn’t it just heury? Why would scum not just take that out? That seems crazy that someone would have so much hubris to not take the sure out to instead stick around and try to puppet the game thread without ever getting caught before finding another time to get voted. Thats why this makes no sense as a s/s play. Bessie is town and if Bessie ever flips scum we just win imo and I don’t think that’s a real possibility. There’s a t/t possibility and a Heury scum, Bessie town possibly but I see almost zero chance that Heury is town while Bessie is scum.

I'm inclined to agree and given that I don't think bessie is the kind of player to pull a high risk ploy like this as misdirection, this puts me rather firmly in a bessie is town universe.

[Deadbananas0]

I'll do kay read with my general list later tonight.

If Bessie ever flips scum, isn’t it just heury? Why would scum not just take that out? That seems crazy that someone would have so much hubris to not take the sure out to instead stick around and try to puppet the game thread without ever getting caught before finding another time to get voted. Thats why this makes no sense as a s/s play. Bessie is town and if Bessie ever flips scum we just win imo and I don’t think that’s a real possibility. There’s a t/t possibility and a Heury scum, Bessie town possibly but I see almost zero chance that Heury is town while Bessie is scum.

I don't want to harp on this too much either, I've got a few posts on it, see for my main logic. I think another factor people are overlooking, is Heury's vote is locked. Scum Bessie wouldn't need to act immediately, because as long as she acts before another pair vote each other she is fine. If you logged into the game as scum, saw you had an easy out on the table, you could go for the riskier play, and if it seems like two other people are going to pair up, you can then just take the easy out then.
Again, this is just something I want people to consider if the scenario of scum bessie flips without town heury, not my scumreading of bessie.


Thank you for responding Heury, regarding good vote candidate, yah thats my bad, I should have clarified that I am against Bessie voting for you in return, but it is Bessie's choice.

Also on the vote idea, mildly against it, I think its a good principle, but there are certain people I wouldn't want to be elimmed together, and other considerations I think could get lost? I'm down to use it as a way of tracking peoples thoughts though.

Since I told EGW I would give my heury read after Heury responded, I'll post my current thoughts and update it in my end of day list.

To steal Mak's format

I still lean Heury >rand town regarding the early vote, I think its something that would need to be coordinated with a scum partner as scum, and wouldn't have happened as fast as it did + my pregame analysis. I don't want to see Heury flip today, I think most people disagree with me on the read, and I don't think it would give as much information as Heury's vote target.

I see his messages and interactions very different than the game I just played with him where he was scum. Particularly, Heury being bummed about the Bessie in the game confusion fits really well with his townie reasoning for voting bessie in the first place. I think his reads are... a mix of some stuff I agree with, and a good amount of stuff I disagree with. His justification for my question about Greedy and Moody I liked, it just accepted the double standard and didn't try to double down.

Ultimately, even if Heury hadn't voted Bessie, I would not be willing to vote today, this is a slot I would like to see how it progresses over time.

Fuck it, quick reads list, not really ordered

Somi - my current favorite slot in the game, generally seems to be reading all posts, I get a good sense of paranoia, while they have committed to some reads, and I like that they pushed back on me, rather than pocketing. I think here:

I'm inclined to agree and given that I don't think bessie is the kind of player to pull a high risk ploy like this as misdirection, this puts me rather firmly in a bessie is town universe.

Is my favorite counter argument, because its clear Somi has read and understood thoughts on both sides of the aisle, and instead of just hiding in logic, makes a judgement call on how they think Bessie in specific would play.

Kay - I didn't like a lot of Kay's middle posts, specifically i felt their interaction post Bessie felt off, and I didn't like how they handled EGW and I discussing jokes, felt like they were kind of subtley egging on some confrontation with these posts.. I liked when Kay started interacting with Mak and EGW, specifically on Greedy, and [url=viewtopic.php?p=92845#p92845] this post felt very helpful in clarifying the situation,[/url ]opposite energy of Kay's earlier posts, in it seems they have stepped up to being more helpful. Ultimately, not a slot I'm willing to vote today, Kay strikes me as a very good player on both sides, but for now im feeling mild town lean.

Heury - see Heury read above

Bessie - Likely town due to Heury's actions, my other thoughts should be clear.

Bop - Neutral feeling to me. Think I liked them more earlier, but most posts I've seen from them recently have been clarifications on things, and engaging me on flip priorities, I don't think their arguments are scummy, just want to see some more reads. Strongest stance seems to be disliking Heury and Greedy, but seemed to parot other peoples takes and then hedge slightly. Like me too, lol, but I want to see some more still very early ofc.

Mak - Neutral to slight town. I like their view of the game, and that they've acted on it. What pinged me as scum for them in the last game was unwillingness to share info, and that they were very against vig shooting early, which I think favored maf by restricting info and keeping them alive. Still early on, and Mak is scary and no one should trust them.

EGW- talked a lot with this slot, so gonna try and keep this brief. I want to see more town reads and pushing who they think is town, but I can see their POV on me/heury slightly, even if I think we have been misinterpreting each others words slightly, their arguments against me have mainly been directed at parts of my thoughts that I have been torn on/struggled in coming to my views. Will def need to do a full read of after the first flips, I would like to keep this slot around.

Greedy - initially pinged belligerent town, I agree with Kay and Mak on their backtracking of their plan somewhat. I don't like that their only post since then was saying they town read Kay without providing reasoning.

Moody - only post since my last read of them was incredibly evasive, currently my lowest read.

[Deadbananas0]

For the record for Heury's system, with my caveat, I would vote Bessie and vote somi today. If only one vote is allowed I would in Heury's system (please Seven I do not intend to actually vote in this post) I would do Bessie, but ya know I want more posts before anything else.

[KayJayQueue]

Kay - I didn't like a lot of Kay's middle posts, specifically i felt their interaction post Bessie felt off, and I didn't like how they handled EGW and I discussing jokes, felt like they were kind of subtley egging on some confrontation with these posts..

What about those posts, especially the second one make you think I was egging something on rather than trying to diffuse a misunderstanding? The first post was a genuine thought I had about what felt like an unnecessary overanalysis of “jokes” but the second one after seeing the responses was just to say that maybe it was a misunderstanding. The exact opposite of pushing a confrontation.

I also don’t understand why you think my interactions with Bessie are off. I’m new here, I’m trying to explain how I work and how I play and I’m probably a bit defensive and self conscious because of being the new person but I don’t see why or how it’s being interpreted by you as forced besides maybe just not knowing me, which is exactly what I’m trying to amend.

Especially with an ending of a townlean, I’m a bit confused why you put so much energy into your read on me (giving specific examples of what you don’t like, and what you do) when no one else warranted that kind of analysis from you.

I’m happy to see your full thought process on reading me but I am a bit wary that I’m the only one that got that treatment at this point, aside from your previous Heury analysis. Unless it’s just an activity thing where you feel I have the most to analyze but I have a feeling others would disagree about that.

[somitomi]

I don't want to harp on this too much either, I've got a few posts on it, see for my main logic. I think another factor people are overlooking, is Heury's vote is locked. Scum Bessie wouldn't need to act immediately, because as long as she acts before another pair vote each other she is fine. If you logged into the game as scum, saw you had an easy out on the table, you could go for the riskier play, and if it seems like two other people are going to pair up, you can then just take the easy out then.
Again, this is just something I want people to consider if the scenario of scum bessie flips without town heury, not my scumreading of bessie.

Scum!bessie doesn't have to "alpha strike", sure, but if she was planning to take the fall with Heury there's little reason for her to delay doing so. But I talked about this already. She can hang around and watch us convince ourselves she's town, it makes little difference either way, so bessie's town equity doesn't really kick in until the next phase.
The "risky play" isn't that though, it's what you outlined in the very post you link back to: bessie passes up this opportunity and waits for someone else to trust fall with, at which point town!heury would be implicated (see also this Kay post). This is a high-risk move since town-cred notwithstanding it's not guaranteed that she'd get a second chance. You know what they say about two in the bush
This kind of confusion on your part is rather strange though, which makes me wonder what possible reason you could have to "rewrite" the scenario like this.