Trust Fall Mafia - Day 1

[Makhaira]

NO ONE SHOULD EVER TRUST MAK

I am certain kay is going to echo this sentiment. Didnt expect darkest dungeon to so thoroughly gut my baseline trustability LMAO

[EGW]

I am certain kay is going to echo this sentiment. Didnt expect darkest dungeon to so thoroughly gut my baseline trustability LMAO

Seeing as how you and Somi have burned me once before, I can see why. Talk to me about your read on Deadbananas and myself for starters.

[Makhaira]

I like EGWs eagerness here, +town IMO

Gonna be so mad if its scum!EGW again tho and hes jjst totally 180ing his strat and going for a pocket on me instead of attacking me like in tales like he did as scum there

Worst part is a 180 of strat actually is conducive to this format for scum too... damnit EGW NO SNOW

[Makhaira]

I kinda speedread bananas posts but nothing has explicity town pinged me so far

[EGW]

I genuinely believed you were mafia there (team b mafia), and here I'm neutral on you.

[Deadbananas0]

Bops interpretation here is correct. Sorry for the ambiguous language, but yeah by "with moody here" I meant "I agree with moody on this point"

all good, gotcha.

Thank you. I believe Deadbananas is the second scum. Trying to force scum reads, instead of coming to them naturally. Also makes sense for him to prop up Heury as town while being buddies with him.

I don't think of these as scum reads currently, just associations and things I've noticed, and want to remark upon, you can refer to me consistently saying I don't think Bessie is mechanically town throughout this game.

A good way to think about voting in this game is EVERY VOTE IS ALPHA STRIKABLE, not in the sense that every vote could be game ending (atleast not until one scum has escaped) but in that one errant vote can allow the scum to score and they only need to score twice to win

To that end, early votes are extra risky, which makess heury trend slightly >rand scum imo because only scum can vote "risk free" (its not that simple because of the opportunity cost of locking but for simplicity's sake this is my general mental model of the risk/reward in this format)

Bessie not immediately voting back and escaping trends >rand town for her. Scum have very little reason to hesitate taking the chance to escape if its offered unless they are sure their mate needs their support to get voted. But like if Im scum here and a townie gives me the chance to escape phase 1 you bet your ass Im taking that. 50% to a win after one phase is amazing IMO and Id expect my mate to carry their weight. You only have to pocket one person afterall

I like your thoughts here, but maybe I'm being paranoid, I'm sticking with my analysis here.

Obv heury could be voting bessie as a mate to try to get her early +town equity but I think thats less likely, seems to all in for scum!heury and I feel like thats something they would talk out before committing to it and I feel like heurys vote came too fast for that to have been hashed out in in scum daychat

I agree with this, and I expand that logic to I don't think scum heury would vote a town that early without talking to a scummate first.

I also think that if Heury is scum, that he would only gambit in this manner if he trusts that his partner (Deadbananas) can go on without him in case he does exit. Deadbananas seems to be trying hard to seem town giving constant thoughts, which is what I would expect mafia to try to do, because it's important for mafia to seem townie, since there win con is to get voted out, instead of avoiding being voted.

Fair enough, you can ask Mak, Heury, Bessie, Somi, or Kay to read my private chat in darkest dungeon, since I tried to do the same thing there I'm doing here, since I felt much more about my town that game, than my games of the past. Obviously very different formats, but its my reasoning.

[EGW]

Also to be clear, we have played before on smashboards Deadbananas. Although I don't remember much of your play there, I can see you have improved.

[Deadbananas0]

Also to be clear, we have played before on smashboards Deadbananas. Although I don't remember much of your play there, I can see you have improved.

oh shit! Nice, my bad for not remembering, did you have a different username? And thanks, I'm trying my best, I think the only thing good I can say about my town game previously is people generally thought I was town lol, trying to actually add more value.

[EGW]

No, it's not your fault. I go by Ranmaru on smashboards.

[KayJayQueue]

Heury saying I’m lost and didn’t read the rules is highly annoying when multiple people got confused re: Bessie. I’ve played this format before. I was one of the first to mention that Bessie not voting back meant she was probably town but I’m being sidelined and scum “leaned” for getting caught up in the confusion of 2 different player lists? Okay. I think that read on me comes off condescending to say it’s my meta to be confused but whatever.

[Makhaira]

Kay I do agree heurys take on you is kind of strange I don't get confused vibes from you at all. I doubt heury meant that in any condescending way, I think Ive only ever seen heury be condescending in response to someone sending snark their way, but I understand how it would come off that way from your POV

[Makhaira]

Kay any read on greedy so far?

[Makhaira]

Wait deadbannanas is from smashboards? I thought they were from XKCD

Bananas did we ever play together on smashboards before? Im FrozenFlame there

[Makhaira]

Now that's greedy


Not a great answer

What does a great answer look like?

Still waiting on a satisfactory response to this.

Gun to head and you have to make the call right now, is heury x bessie, TT, TS/ST, or SS?

Do you think there's any merit to heury saying kay seems "confused"?

[somitomi]

I understand your reasoning, but I'm not sure I agree? Atleast day 1, I'd like to try and maximize information gained on a flip, though the format kinda makes that hard, since the person in question would then have to vote.

Currently, I think flipping Bessie would give the most concrete information on other players, as we'd have heavy information on Heury, and smaller information on other slots, my eyes would be on EGW and Kay as well on a scum flip.

I'm not sure how much information we can get from flips in this game, despite the evidence to the contrary currently in the thread
Mechanically speaking the most any mafia player can do for the team is to get themselves into a trust fall, they can't meaningfully influence the success of their mate. Since one scum has to be revealed during the game before a mafia win can occur, they have to hide their connection more than usual, so even indirectly trying to influence public opinion is difficult. From this it does seem like peacing out immediately when the opportunity presents itself (to reduce information leak) would be the optimal scum move in most cases.
And of course as others have noted, discussion on who we would like to flip is a bit moot if the people so selected don't trust one another.

Think about it, scum Bessie doesn't immediately vote Heury, and proceeds to do their best to look townie in the chat, eventually someone else votes for them, and scum Bessie then initiates the trust fall with them, flipping scum.

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

To that end, early votes are extra risky, which makess heury trend slightly >rand scum imo because only scum can vote "risk free" (its not that simple because of the opportunity cost of locking but for simplicity's sake this is my general mental model of the risk/reward in this format)

Scum can vote "risk free", but there's little chance that they'd be voted back and good chance whoever they voted gets high town cred for not doing so immediately (as inded has happened), so I don't see any reason for them to vote a townie in this manner.

Gonna be so mad if its scum!EGW again tho and hes jjst totally 180ing his strat and going for a pocket on me instead of attacking me like in tales like he did as scum there

Unfortunately, pocketing one townie is largely the scum strategy in this game

[EGW]

Wait deadbannanas is from smashboards? I thought they were from XKCD

Yes, this is the last game I remember being with them in, although I was force replaced there I think: Sumting Sumting Mafia

[KayJayQueue]

Kay any read on greedy so far?

I think he purposely posted about trusting the first person to vote him and then disappearing for a day to gauge the responses to know how to approach explaining himself as to why he made that move. It seems calculated because if he’s scum and anyone bit, he’d have immediately just left the game but since no one did he had to explain himself. The issue is, he’d probably do the initial post as either alignment so I can’t really say it means he’s scum. I think the immediate back off of his bit saying he’d just not trust that person ever is a bit +scum just because as town he usually has more “idgaf” commitment to his bits and I think his response seemed just a tad self conscious which he’s not as town.

[EGW]

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

[KayJayQueue]

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

But with that in mind, it would still make bananas town in that scenario right? So while odd, unless you think it’s a bananas/bessie team, I don’t know if it helps us find a solve. So if bananas ever wants Bessie voted on let’s just say they can do it themselves if we are worried about that team being possible.

[Makhaira]

Kay any read on greedy so far?

I think he purposely posted about trusting the first person to vote him and then disappearing for a day to gauge the responses to know how to approach explaining himself as to why he made that move. It seems calculated because if he’s scum and anyone bit, he’d have immediately just left the game but since no one did he had to explain himself. The issue is, he’d probably do the initial post as either alignment so I can’t really say it means he’s scum. I think the immediate back off of his bit saying he’d just not trust that person ever is a bit +scum just because as town he usually has more “idgaf” commitment to his bits and I think his response seemed just a tad self conscious which he’s not as town.

I agree that the play he made is very "wait and see" and puts him in a position to very easily spin the rationale for it as protown even tho youre right in that facially if he is scum he could literally just be masking a blatant bait for an impulsive townie to give him an easy out

[Makhaira]

My gut tells me letting bananas and bessie pair up and bounce probably works out for town

[Deadbananas0]

No, it's not your fault. I go by Ranmaru on smashboards.

oh nice! I remember your GAME WINNING READS post with the guy on the beach I think, that was funny, and part of what I'm trying to model helpful town off of.

Wait deadbannanas is from smashboards? I thought they were from XKCD

Bananas did we ever play together on smashboards before? Im FrozenFlame there

Only somewhat from smashboards, my full mafia story is did a few games on a robotics forum, the mods there didn't like it, and banned it mid game, Osie stepped up and helped migrate it to a different site, I think mafia 451? Then said smashboards was a cool community, I played a few games there then got to busy with life and had to step away.

I don't think we ever played together, but your name sounds familiar? Might have just heard about it in passing.

Wait deadbannanas is from smashboards? I thought they were from XKCD

Yes, this is the last game I remember being with them in, although I was force replaced there I think: Sumting Sumting Mafia

I think you were also in Wam's chaos game.

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

yah for sure I think theres a discussion to be had here, and any flip requires the involved parties ofc. For my part, I'd prefer the first flip to be something a bit riskier to get us more info, then do some safe flips based on that, I don't see any merit to saving risky flips until the very end, when they could get us info to work with in the next phase.
Like at this point my strongest TR is Somi, but I think us leaving the game would not give people much info to work on for the next day, itd just be the same process again, I think if we get stuck in that loop, chances of a mistake when it counts later is higher.

[Bop]

Goddamnit, now I'm paranoid again

This is why I said even though I consider it more likely scum voting town, that I wouldn't vote there if possible due to caution of it being a scum on scum gambit, since scum can vote their buddies. However, this is why I also think it's odd that Bananas wants to flip Bessie with this in mind. Too risky.

Agree with "flipping for information only" to be too big a risk in general. We can only be wrong twice and that's game so you only should risk it if you earnest believe in the fall.

Kay any read on greedy so far?

I think he purposely posted about trusting the first person to vote him and then disappearing for a day to gauge the responses to know how to approach explaining himself as to why he made that move. It seems calculated because if he’s scum and anyone bit, he’d have immediately just left the game but since no one did he had to explain himself. The issue is, he’d probably do the initial post as either alignment so I can’t really say it means he’s scum. I think the immediate back off of his bit saying he’d just not trust that person ever is a bit +scum just because as town he usually has more “idgaf” commitment to his bits and I think his response seemed just a tad self conscious which he’s not as town.

I agree that the play he made is very "wait and see" and puts him in a position to very easily spin the rationale for it as protown even tho youre right in that facially if he is scum he could literally just be masking a blatant bait for an impulsive townie to give him an easy out

I'm here with Greedy and Heury tbh. Both early posts could be town moves but both could have been hoping to rush incredibly easy wins if scum and I'd be hard pressed to vote either of them them vs most anyone else for a while.

yah for sure I think theres a discussion to be had here, and any flip requires the involved parties ofc. For my part, I'd prefer the first flip to be something a bit riskier to get us more info, then do some safe flips based on that, I don't see any merit to saving risky flips until the very end, when they could get us info to work with in the next phase.
Like at this point my strongest TR is Somi, but I think us leaving the game would not give people much info to work on for the next day, itd just be the same process again, I think if we get stuck in that loop, chances of a mistake when it counts later is higher.

The thing is if we get it wrong every flip after is a risky flip. Whereas if we make it to late game with two mafia the odds of getting it wrong go up, but the risk of one flipping is a warning and not a game over. Personally I'd way prefer late game to have worse odds but better outcomes.

[EGW]

But with that in mind, it would still make bananas town in that scenario right? So while odd, unless you think it’s a bananas/bessie team, I don’t know if it helps us find a solve. So if bananas ever wants Bessie voted on let’s just say they can do it themselves if we are worried about that team being possible.

No, what's odd to me is the lack of caution when considering that Heury already locked their vote on that. I think Heury and Deadbananas are scum.

I like your thoughts here, but maybe I'm being paranoid, I'm sticking with my analysis here.

What exactly do you like here, and can you elaborate in what way you are being paranoid? Also, can you give me your updated read on Heury?

[EGW]

oh nice! I remember your GAME WINNING READS post with the guy on the beach I think, that was funny, and part of what I'm trying to model helpful town off of.

This made me laugh, happy that helped you model your play.