Trust Fall Mafia - Day 1

[Makhaira]

But they were all of them deceived, for another Bessie was made. In the land of Mordor, in the fires of Mount Doom, the Dark Lord Heury forged in secret, a master Bessie, to control all others. And into this Bessue he poured all his cruelty, his malice and his will to dominate all life. One Bessie to rule them all. One by one, the free peoples of XKCD fell to the power of the Bessie.

None can escape it. You will unite or you will fall. Each of you is bound to this fate, this one doom!

[Makhaira]

bessie, is the LOTR core pure?

[EGW]

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks. I think leaving the wrong people for endgame poses and even bigger problem in a way, given scum only need to convince one other non-paired player to fulfil their part of the wincon

Good point. Hello Mak.

[somitomi]

Putting deadbananas0 on the never vote list.

Dang, in this game even this means the opposite of what it normally means.
Also, why do you think this mistake is indicative of alignment?

Asking for a friend of course

I thought I saw Bessie in the playerlist but did the same as DB when double checking. The mistake is understandable since this game is merged with the sign up thread.

Masterful swindle on Seven's part, I also fell into that trap

I guess this wouldn’t be a typical xkcd game if I wasn’t scum reading somitomi by page 3. -1

This isn't really a typical game though, so maybe we could play it differently?

On a serious note, same question as to moody: why do you think this is indicative of alignment?

whatupppppppp bromigos

anyone who knows what my new (and technically old) avatar is from gets to pocket me for free

you can prove it by filling in the other 9 commandments (#1 is free for anyone who remembers my last ava)

commandment #1 is 100% the move here btw, we just gotta beat the rand elim timer, so lets kick back and experience the magic

I wasn't even sure your avatar changed

[Makhaira]

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks. I think leaving the wrong people for endgame poses and even bigger problem in a way, given scum only need to convince one other non-paired player to fulfil their part of the wincon

Good point. Hello Mak.

but nah I actually do wanna play for a bit

unless?

[Makhaira]

marshy would be super proud of the HBC insta peace out tho if we were both town

like thats the definition of swag

[EGW]

That would be very funny. I'm here to stay. The longer I'm in the higher the chances town wins. However I was hoping you'd post that picture for nostalgia reasons. This game is buddying extreme mode. I would prefer to be around to discuss reads with you if you are town, and get them right.

[heuristically_alone]

VOTE: Bessie

Thank you Heury for your trust! I would like to vote you right away but I don’t want to deny the other players a full game Day of my exceptional scumhunting abilities, so I will put this on hold until closer to deadline.

Don't feel like you have to vote back at all today. Now that we know you're town, need your expertise and reads.

Kind of a bummer that there was some confusion about whether bessie was actually in the game which somewhat gets on the way of reading reactions. But here's my reads based on reactions

Moody - just accepted it for what it was, lean town

Deadbananas - what would/wouldn't do as scum post, lean scum

Somitomi - healthy suspicion, lean town

EGW - healthy and genuinely suspicious, very lean town

Kayjayqueue - also didn't seem to read rules or playerlist and seems as lost as they were during darkest dungeon, want to lean scum for not giving own thoughts, but they were town in darkest dungeon so could be their town meta. So very very slight scum lean

Bop - immediately understood bessie would be lock town, lean town

Mak - just want to say this is a terrible game for Mak to be in as NO ONE SHOULD EVER TRUST MAK. Also Mak never gave a direct reaction to Bessie vote which I find suspicious so lean scum.

Greedy - made no comment or reaction whatsoever. Neutral. Slight scum lean.

Bessie - lock town assuming she doesn't flip scum today

Now that's greedy


Not a great answer

What does a great answer look like?

Still waiting on a satisfactory response to this.

Agreed. Let me know when you have one.

My questioning stems from the fact I believe Heury to be scum gambitting. Looking at the mechanic of this game, Mafia need to be voted off to win. Therefore, I expected scum to possibly try to convince town they are town, and in some way, try to get someone to vote them so they can in return vote back. However, it's possible that if scum don't feel like going that far, they could instantly lock their vote at the start *as a joke*, in hopes that vote target would return a vote. Which is why I asked Bessie why she felt that way, to see how she may be reading Heury, and go from there. Voting instantly shows Heury doesn't have a sense of caution, because if he voted wrong and was town, he could possibly be throwing. Not only that, but if you read the setup post, Mafia cannot vote their buddy back, so at the same time, Heury as scum would be inviting spew towards Bessie. I don't see voting instantly pro-town either.

Therefore I think this is scum voting town, but I would never risk voting either if we have the space. I think it would be very sub-optimal to choose their own partner. Heury should therefore be in the never vote pile absolutely. His lack of follow up also is concerning.

And anyone that knows bessie know that town bessie would never vote back early d1 or d1 at all. Not to be presumptious to assume I know what bessie or any player would do. But a solid start of rolling the dice and getting a lock town I think is a great start to the game.

Side note. It was my birthday! Got the Mistborn deck building game which is overall a very well done game.

[somitomi]

And anyone that knows bessie know that town bessie would never vote back early d1 or d1 at all. Not to be presumptious to assume I know what bessie or any player would do. But a solid start of rolling the dice and getting a lock town I think is a great start to the game.

Side note. It was my birthday! Got the Mistborn deck building game which is overall a very well done game.

Dammit, I realised this morning mafia wouldn't do this to town, because they'd just be giving someone a free "certified town" card. The only edge case is if Heury and bessie are mafia together.

Also, happ birf

[moody7277]

I took Bop's post Moody responded to here as a joke, but I don't get the same sense from Moody, maybe I don't get their humor, could you explain your thoughts Moody? I get you wanting to wait until after Bessie enters if you have a genuine reason.

I don't think it was a joke, but I'd let Bop explain what he thinks is going on there. Although bessie not having yet been paying attention to the game may invalidate what I thought he meant.


Liking EGW's chain of thought re heury insta-voting. Putting him in the votables.

Also, why do you think this mistake is indicative of alignment?

Well, in this game my opinion doesn't stop anyone else who does trust deadbananas enough to fall with him from doing so. And if you're using my opinion to help your read on him, why start now?

[somitomi]

Well, in this game my opinion doesn't stop anyone else who does trust deadbananas enough to fall with him from doing so. And if you're using my opinion to help your read on him, why start now?

Nice deflection, but I wanted to hear your thought process in order to read you

[EGW]

bessie, is the LOTR core pure?

I am curious of your reads so far.

[Seven]

There’s a Mistborn deck building game?????? Happy borthday heury

[Bop]

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks. I think leaving the wrong people for endgame poses and even bigger problem in a way, given scum only need to convince one other non-paired player to fulfil their part of the wincon

That's true,(making this also a very roundabout deckbuilding game) but I'm not sure how actionable it is? As it would be easy for mafia to play "risky townie" in this format if they know that's a valid way out when the pressure heats up(and suspicious behavior could look so similar). Also think people's opinions on this will differ far more wildly than their town/scum reads. But I don't disagree with the concern!

Bop - immediately understood bessie would be lock town, lean town

I took Bop's post Moody responded to here as a joke, but I don't get the same sense from Moody, maybe I don't get their humor, could you explain your thoughts Moody? I get you wanting to wait until after Bessie enters if you have a genuine reason.

I don't think it was a joke, but I'd let Bop explain

Not to argue against people thinking I had a good insight but

Bessie is locktrusted. That's mechanically undeniable.

Was 1000% a joke! Bessie hadn't had a chance to post yet(so I had nothing to read her from), but the locked in voting meant there was a "Trust" locked in for Bessie. I thought it was funny to say bc I didn't want to leave her off the list.

I do agree with somi now that Bessie's posted and not taken the option to leave that Bessie is almost certainly town or would have to be mafia on a team with heury specifically-otherwise you think she'd just take the win (unless she's just taking some bragging rights victory laps as she'd have until the end of day to take advantage, but there's not much mechanically we could do to prevent it in that case beyond rushing a different vote for a really specific unlikely possibility)

[Deadbananas0]

My questioning stems from the fact I believe Heury to be scum gambitting. Looking at the mechanic of this game, Mafia need to be voted off to win. Therefore, I expected scum to possibly try to convince town they are town, and in some way, try to get someone to vote them so they can in return vote back. However, it's possible that if scum don't feel like going that far, they could instantly lock their vote at the start *as a joke*, in hopes that vote target would return a vote. Which is why I asked Bessie why she felt that way, to see how she may be reading Heury, and go from there. Voting instantly shows Heury doesn't have a sense of caution, because if he voted wrong and was town, he could possibly be throwing. Not only that, but if you read the setup post, Mafia cannot vote their buddy back, so at the same time, Heury as scum would be inviting spew towards Bessie. I don't see voting instantly pro-town either.

Therefore I think this is scum voting town, but I would never risk voting either if we have the space. I think it would be very sub-optimal to choose their own partner. Heury should therefore be in the never vote pile absolutely. His lack of follow up also is concerning.

Gotcha, thank you for explaining.
For the record, while I do think Heury's action likely comes from town, I agree in that I personally would never do it as either alignment, and I don't think Heury is a good vote candidate for today. I'll get to thoughts about vote candidates later.

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks.

Could you explain this to someone who has never played with Moody before? I currently have a negative opinion of their alignment this game, but want to avoid that trap.

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks.

Good point. Hello Mak.

Same for you.

Don't feel like you have to vote back at all today. Now that we know you're town, need your expertise and reads.

I don't like this from Heury, I can see how Huery could "know" Bessie is town, even if I disagree, but I don't think anyone else knows.

Deadbananas - what would/wouldn't do as scum post, lean scum

Could you explain this to me? Not generally confused/ think this is indicative of alignment because Somi also mentioned this kinda. But IMO, maybe its because I don't have that many games under my belt, but I think analyzing what scum/town benefits/detriments to certain actions is important to getting a read on the game, and in this game since theres no night actions, the vote is the only thing we can analyze in that regard. I use I, because I don't know everyone here well enough to understand their metas, and don't like putting words in peoples mouths, plus I was thinking back to my earlier thoughts on the matter.

I like most of Heury's other reads, cept on Bop, and this dichotomy:

....
Moody - just accepted it for what it was, lean town
....
Greedy - made no comment or reaction whatsoever. Neutral. Slight scum lean.

What makes Moody different from Greedy here in your mind? Only post from Moody on it, is saying its overeager, and I saw Greedy posting their little gambit as a similar reaction.

Also Happy birthday! That sounds cool! I think slay the spire has ruined all other deckbuilders for me, but always down for some brando.

Well, in this game my opinion doesn't stop anyone else who does trust deadbananas enough to fall with him from doing so. And if you're using my opinion to help your read on him, why start now?

Nice deflection, but I wanted to hear your thought process in order to read you

Agree with Somi, but on the quoted Moody post in general.

Side note, I keep on typing Moody as Meudy, thanks Heury.

I think leaving the wrong people for endgame poses and even bigger problem in a way, given scum only need to convince one other non-paired player to fulfil their part of the wincon

I understand your reasoning, but I'm not sure I agree? Atleast day 1, I'd like to try and maximize information gained on a flip, though the format kinda makes that hard, since the person in question would then have to vote.

Currently, I think flipping Bessie would give the most concrete information on other players, as we'd have heavy information on Heury, and smaller information on other slots, my eyes would be on EGW and Kay as well on a scum flip.

However, I don't want to waste Heury's potential town gamble, and do see the value into keeping someone long term, it just seems like a somewhat fool hardy game to play? You and EGW have indicated you don't want to leave early, I think you risk lowering your pool of people who should leave to places where wolfes could easily hide, while keeping people with stronger deepwolf potential in for the long haul.

[Deadbananas0]

I do agree with somi now that Bessie's posted and not taken the option to leave that Bessie is almost certainly town or would have to be mafia on a team with heury specifically-otherwise you think she'd just take the win (unless she's just taking some bragging rights victory laps as she'd have until the end of day to take advantage, but there's not much mechanically we could do to prevent it in that case beyond rushing a different vote for a really specific unlikely possibility)

Risking Heury scumreading me further, as mafia, if given the gift of being voted be a random townie, I don't think its that unlikely for a smart player, who wants to play the game more, to not immediately snap vote the townie in response.
Think about it, scum Bessie doesn't immediately vote Heury, and proceeds to do their best to look townie in the chat, eventually someone else votes for them, and scum Bessie then initiates the trust fall with them, flipping scum.
Next day, no one will ever vote Heury now, which means town needs 3 consecutive perfect pairings, with a final day pairing of 1 town out of the vote, that gives the remaining mafia really good odds of getting someone to trust them in the endgame.

[EGW]

Currently, I think flipping Bessie would give the most concrete information on other players, as we'd have heavy information on Heury, and smaller information on other slots, my eyes would be on EGW and Kay as well on a scum flip.

Can you elaborate on this? Why is this. Also, I simply agreed with Mak that it makes sense to leave stronger players for endgame.

[Bop]

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks.

Could you explain this to someone who has never played with Moody before? I currently have a negative opinion of their alignment this game, but want to avoid that trap.

I'm thinking this was more of an "I am agreeing with moody here, in this way"

Currently, I think flipping Bessie would give the most concrete information on other players, as we'd have heavy information on Heury, and smaller information on other slots, my eyes would be on EGW and Kay as well on a scum flip.

However, I don't want to waste Heury's potential town gamble, and do see the value into keeping someone long term, it just seems like a somewhat fool hardy game to play? You and EGW have indicated you don't want to leave early, I think you risk lowering your pool of people who should leave to places where wolfes could easily hide, while keeping people with stronger deepwolf potential in for the long haul.

This is a weird thing with this format where "I think this would be a good person to flip" can't happen without that person's explicitly consent.

But also in the "who would I probably want around late game", Bessie is certainly high on that list for me.

[Deadbananas0]

Currently, I think flipping Bessie would give the most concrete information on other players, as we'd have heavy information on Heury, and smaller information on other slots, my eyes would be on EGW and Kay as well on a scum flip.

Can you elaborate on this? Why is this. Also, I simply agreed with Mak that it makes sense to leave stronger players for endgame.

Gotcha wasn't sure if you were talking about moody or the later thing.

As for my reasoning I thought, see this post for my general argument. In this case, I see your reading of a few posts about Bessie not being in the game, in the case Bessie flips mafia, as mildly indicative you had too much info in the form of a mafia chat with Bessie, then using my read that you've been around the block a lot, would be a caliber of player who would take the opportunity of my mistake to then switch to Bessie isn't in the game as a form of distance, mild association, born from my stupidity, but its something I'm keeping an eye on. Similar reason for Kay, Kay wasn't as slow to catch on, but soon after the whole kerfluffle were the first to put forward In this post that Bessie is town due to Heury's vote, and generally Kay and Bessie's interactions have felt slightly forced to me, the whole lowest score from Bessie and then Kay saying Bessie won't like me at all.

[Makhaira]

with moody here, this game setup has an unusual reversal of the natural comeback mechanics of mafia in that town's risk of scoring for the other team increase as the game goes on and the playerlist shrinks.

Could you explain this to someone who has never played with Moody before? I currently have a negative opinion of their alignment this game, but want to avoid that trap.

I'm thinking this was more of an "I am agreeing with moody here, in this way"

Bops interpretation here is correct. Sorry for the ambiguous language, but yeah by "with moody here" I meant "I agree with moody on this point"

[EGW]

Thank you. I believe Deadbananas is the second scum. Trying to force scum reads, instead of coming to them naturally. Also makes sense for him to prop up Heury as town while being buddies with him.

[EGW]

Why did you not read my entire post?

This post pings me.

[Makhaira]

A good way to think about voting in this game is EVERY VOTE IS ALPHA STRIKABLE, not in the sense that every vote could be game ending (atleast not until one scum has escaped) but in that one errant vote can allow the scum to score and they only need to score twice to win

To that end, early votes are extra risky, which makess heury trend slightly >rand scum imo because only scum can vote "risk free" (its not that simple because of the opportunity cost of locking but for simplicity's sake this is my general mental model of the risk/reward in this format)

Bessie not immediately voting back and escaping trends >rand town for her. Scum have very little reason to hesitate taking the chance to escape if its offered unless they are sure their mate needs their support to get voted. But like if Im scum here and a townie gives me the chance to escape phase 1 you bet your ass Im taking that. 50% to a win after one phase is amazing IMO and Id expect my mate to carry their weight. You only have to pocket one person afterall

[Makhaira]

Obv heury could be voting bessie as a mate to try to get her early +town equity but I think thats less likely, seems to all in for scum!heury and I feel like thats something they would talk out before committing to it and I feel like heurys vote came too fast for that to have been hashed out in in scum daychat

[EGW]

I also think that if Heury is scum, that he would only gambit in this manner if he trusts that his partner (Deadbananas) can go on without him in case he does exit. Deadbananas seems to be trying hard to seem town giving constant thoughts, which is what I would expect mafia to try to do, because it's important for mafia to seem townie, since there win con is to get voted out, instead of avoiding being voted.