Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[LaserGuy]

Well, I'm at the point where the only thing that might change my mind would be hard data from flips. No amount of rereading without further context is going to alter what my current state of the game is, namely:

Voteables:
Seven
Snide
somi

Non-Voteables:
LaserGuy
Suzaku

Debatable:
wam
bessie

Can you take a stab at putting together a theory of who you think is cult/mafia/survivor based on this?

Seven has swung back to Snide is town and there is something manipulating the results. I don't think there is a redirect in this game with the rez/recruits/extra kills I think it would be too much. If seven flips town I think snide is actually mafia who overnight got given a plan from a more experienced team mate who is banking on seven being a different anti town faction and dropped the ball by saying mafia not anti town and backed themselves into a corner.

What would be the point of this move by mafia!Snide? We probably have at least 2-3 more day phases before this game is over, one way or the other. Even if he had done nothing Seven had a good chance of getting yeeted regardless.

[Wam]

Cause chaos? Take heat away from a partner? Make somi look more town? Give snide something so they are not lurker eliminated? Part if some grand master plan I am not seeing?

Tbh I think it's unlikely as it is only if seven doesn't flip mafia.

[Seven]

Vote: Wam

[Seven]

On Moody do I think moody is scum yes, Do I think they should be today's elim no.

This doesn't surprise me in the slightest.

[moody7277]

Can you take a stab at putting together a theory of who you think is cult/mafia/survivor based on this?

Well, remembering my faction fu is shotty at best, here's my WAG:

Seven--SK (technically survivor, but I already said why I think the parts add up to the whole)
somi--luckless cult master
Snide/bessie or Snide/wam--mafia

I'd stake 20 dollars and my self respect on 7en's affiliation.

[LaserGuy]

Can you take a stab at putting together a theory of who you think is cult/mafia/survivor based on this?

Well, remembering my faction fu is shotty at best, here's my WAG:

Seven--SK (technically survivor, but I already said why I think the parts add up to the whole)
somi--luckless cult master
Snide/bessie or Snide/wam--mafia

I'd stake 20 dollars and my self respect on 7en's affiliation.

So... Why are you voting for Survivor instead of mafia or cult?

Also, what about patzer?

[moody7277]

Nobody else wants to vote somi, and the survivor's win condition trumps everybody's so I figure we need to get rid of them to get to a clean game.

As for patzer, there would seem to be an exclusive or as to whether she or Snide are scum, especially given their competing cop claims.

[bessie]

What the hell, the forum just ate my post!

I feel so at home, like this is the old xkcd!

[bessie]

Daily catch up. Third attempt.

I claimed so town wouldn't have to waste time speculating as to why he was killed and being misled by it.

Hmm, still not buying it but whatever.

From there, if you can come to the conclusion that Sniper is telling the truth (it's improbable that he is lying because why would scum!him claim cop when there was already a claimed cop, and why would he claim mafia on me when it would lead to him being killed the next day),

Interesting that you just assume Snide Sniper wouldn’t lie about this, it could be a newbie mistake.

hence why your jim result is what it is

I haven’t claimed any night results, you are fishing for my role.

How confident are you in scum!jimbob in the event Zen flips Town?

Not very. My reread didn’t get very far last night, only through about 10 pages, and I kept seeing jimbob/heury because that is what is now in my mind. I just don’t have the time on weeknights to completely clear my head.

I believe you are thinking of FrozenFlame's role in Crossover.

I don’t think so but I want to put my precious limited weeknight game time into this game rather than the Wayback Machine and the bessie Archive since neither are searchable. Maybe this weekend.

(perhaps even in a generalized way last night, hence why your jim result is what it is) - [emphasis mine]

Did I miss something, or are you speculating again?

Interesting (and suspicious) that Suzaku chose to comment on this of all the content that has been posted since his last post. Noted. Noted twice.

Which sends me off on a tangent that I want to look into. cult leader bessie....

I look forward to reading your case.

I feel slightly like I'm talking to myself but that maybe a time zone issue!

Yes, somitomi is in a convenient time zone for you but he seems to be laying low he must be busy.


23 hours to deadline, I just don't have a lot of time on weeknights. Very briefly I'll put down some thoughts. I don't see how town!Seven shoots BoomFrog, but it is Zen. If Zen is town, I would be very suspicious of soomitomi (I might not even need Zen to be town for that to happen). More stuff I lost from my eaten post maybe it will come back to me, my own fault really for not writing up everything in Word first like I usually do but I'm in a hurry.

Briefly because this is my third attempt, I can't see town!Seven shooting BoomFrog, but it is Zen. If Seven is town, I would be suspicious of somitomi (or I might be even if Seven is mafia). Liking LaserGuy.

I just don't have a lot of time on weekdays so I won't have much more by way of analysis or reads today. I'll be back in an hour or so if LaserGuy or Seven want to talk. But not too long I can't stay up too late.

[Seven]

If Seven is town, I would be suspicious of somitomi (or I might be even if Seven is mafia).

Why?

[bessie]

Without a reread, my unreliable gut.

I just sorted by author and did a very quick skim, and aside from the masterpiece he wrote about why town you wouldn't kill BoomFrog, he's offered very little today on where he stands on everyone.

EBWOP: I messed up of course, Boomfrog is confirmed town now
town: Wam, (Jimbob, Suzaku)
possibly town: LaserGuy
to reread: bessie, patzer, Moody, Snide Sniper
survivor?: Seven

@somitomi, why is Wam town? How's the "to reread" list coming along? Any scum reads besides Seven?

[Seven]

@bessie please keep these three posts in mind post-flip.

Enchiridion 1
Enchiridion 2
Enchiridion 3

And if you end up in a lylo with Laser, you know he knows how to pull your strings better than anyone. Don't forget NewD3! That's not to say he's scum, but he knows that posting how you think will bias you to town read him.

[Seven]

What would be the point of this move by mafia!Snide? We probably have at least 2-3 more day phases before this game is over, one way or the other. Even if he had done nothing Seven had a good chance of getting yeeted regardless.

Why would survivor or cult leader claim either? Even if he wasn't aware that his result was manipulated, why gain mafias attention when he could just stay under the radar?

[bessie]

Ah, it's Patzer/Moody + Wam + TSS. somitomi wouldn't claim to have done the rez if he were cult.

Why not?

[bessie]

And if you end up in a lylo with Laser, you know he knows how to pull your strings better than anyone.

Almost anyone.

[LaserGuy]

Ah, it's Patzer/Moody + Wam + TSS. somitomi wouldn't claim to have done the rez if he were cult.

Why not?

If his rez includes recruitment, then the trail leads directly back to him. If it doesn't, I'm not sure why he would rez at all. I mean, I guess I can't rule out a big-brain play where somi claimed the rez and is banking on Suzaku not dying right away again. I guess it is within the realm of possibility, assuming TSS' result is a fabrication (unlikely), manipulated (possible) or cult!somi is a godfather (possible). It's a shame that we don't have something like a permanent vig shot that we could have used to resolve him.

What would be the point of this move by mafia!Snide? We probably have at least 2-3 more day phases before this game is over, one way or the other. Even if he had done nothing Seven had a good chance of getting yeeted regardless.

Why would survivor or cult leader claim either? Even if he wasn't aware that his result was manipulated, why gain mafias attention when he could just stay under the radar?

I don't think he's cult leader. I think it's probably Wam (or maybe bessie is right and it is somi after all). I'm thinking Survivor!TSS felt it was better to claim and avoid being yeeted under the assumption mafia wouldn't be keen on using two kills on him. OTOH, for any other non-mafia alignment, given that TSS is a newbie and I don't get the sense is really playing to win at this point, I think it's possible he didn't consider the strategic benefits (or lackthereof) of claiming all that strongly. Mafia!TSS I do not believe would have claimed unless his partner was already dead as presumably he would have been told it was a bad idea.

[Seven]

It's a shame that we don't have something like a permanent vig shot that we could have used to resolve him.

I don't think he's cult leader. I think it's probably Wam (or maybe bessie is right and it is somi after all). I'm thinking Survivor!TSS felt it was better to claim and avoid being yeeted under the assumption mafia wouldn't be keen on using two kills on him. OTOH, for any other non-mafia alignment, given that TSS is a newbie and I don't get the sense is really playing to win at this point, I think it's possible he didn't consider the strategic benefits (or lackthereof) of claiming all that strongly. Mafia!TSS I do not believe would have claimed unless his partner was already dead as presumably he would have been told it was a bad idea.

I guess that's sensible.

[LaserGuy]

It's a shame that we don't have something like a permanent vig shot that we could have used to resolve him.

I don't think he's cult leader. I think it's probably Wam (or maybe bessie is right and it is somi after all). I'm thinking Survivor!TSS felt it was better to claim and avoid being yeeted under the assumption mafia wouldn't be keen on using two kills on him. OTOH, for any other non-mafia alignment, given that TSS is a newbie and I don't get the sense is really playing to win at this point, I think it's possible he didn't consider the strategic benefits (or lackthereof) of claiming all that strongly. Mafia!TSS I do not believe would have claimed unless his partner was already dead as presumably he would have been told it was a bad idea.

I guess that's sensible.

I don't know, you could be right. His claim still looks super townie to me. OTOH, there's very little I can point to in somi's content that I feel is townie at all. He was much more transparent in Spirited Away.

I don't think the cult count confirms you since you were dead at day start. A recruit by way of resurrection would make the life of cult very hard though, so I don't think you're likely to be cult.

And then there's this... Hmm.

[Wam]

ping

Snide are you planning to vote? Today and other days?

@bessie no vote yet?

[Wam]

.

Which sends me off on a tangent that I want to look into. cult leader bessie....

I look forward to reading your case.

To be clear this is a project for the next game day I don't have time before deadline and then as stated I'm away.

[Wam]

Also @ bessie please tell me you think I'm the anti social survivor as then I have the lot!
People who think I'm:
Mafia - seven, moody (poss)
Cult leader - laser
Town - somi, moody (poss)
Anti social survivor - no one

[Wam]

Or suzaku could complete the set!

[Wam]

On a more serious note

vote seven

I think I have explained my views in my long post yesterday.

[Seven]

I've gotten all but cult leader, drasted day count is running my collection

[Wam]

I've gotten all but cult leader, drasted day count is running my collection

I think you have been mooted as a cult recruit in edge cases so that gets you close.