Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[moody7277]

Odd how? Like how specifically for Wam?

Well, toward the latter part of the back and forth, it seemed like wam was starting to take it more personally. There was also the radical change in posting style (red for comments & postwalls) that in the normal course of events would seem to be NAI, but I'm not entirely sure.

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have our wagon and counterwagon for toDay. I'm assuming LG is going to abstain again except in case of tied vote. I also don't know if Snide is going to feel interested enough to cast a vote, or get replaced in time for someone else to. That being said, it looks like bessie and Suzaku will be the deciders.

[Seven]

@Wam, 'change my mind' wasn't correct phrasing. It was a response to Laser's point on you above that post, and so should have been something like 'I see your point on wam.' I clarified this a few posts below it:

To be clear, it's not that I was ever disagreeing with the possibility of you being scum, but rather that you being stagnant is a scum tell. I still don't think stagnant play from you is a scum tell or that you necessarily are being stagnant relative to the game pace.

My theory was just for contemplation, I never really had any inclination to actually vote you or TSS that day. This is my read list before that post

Revised List

Keep:
Jim
bessie
Boom
Sniper
Wam

Need to mull on
Laser - look at heavily upon Patzer mafia, seems townie overall though
Suzaku - no tells either way, but not mafia considering the kill
Moody - hard to get past the boom unvote on page 1, but I liked his mega read list near the end of day
somi - inconsistent

Elim:
Patzer

And this a post I made after the 'I change my mind' post :

I vastly prefer to elim somi over Patzer, mainly because I think he's the best cult candidate, but I don't think I can make a convincing case.

Vote: Patzer

Will switch to somi if others are willing to go there though.

Ninja edit @wam: I think it's too on the nose, especially because someone had mentioned that as a possibility before, yet she continued doing it.

Somi and Pat were in my bottom, you and TSS were not. Also clarified this in a response later on to Boom:

(Also for the record, I'm not that invested in Wam being scum, I'm only clarifying this theory since Boom thinks it's bizarro logic.)

[bessie]

Daily catch up post.

No, I believe that it's more likely jimbob (town, or at least non-Mafia) was the victim of the Mafia NK, and that scum_but_not_Mafia!Seven shot boom as claimed.
Despite her protests, I still believe (pending a detailed reread later today) that it's likely Seven is the Anti-social Survivor.
Unless you can show me why Mafia!jimbob is more likely.

My thoughts were that having a vig shot doesn’t fit with survivor; I mean I guess I could see it but still doubt it. And I don’t believe the cult leader would have a vig shot.

My thoughts upon seeing the flip would have been that BoomFrog was a PGO and shot town!jimbob who was visiting him for whatever reason, since it seems unlikely that a town vig would shoot either BoomFrog or jimbob. But by the time I read the thread Seven had already posted and claimed. My mafia!jimbob theory is partly because Seven was so quick to claim the kill.

Odd how? Like how specifically for Wam?

Well, toward the latter part of the back and forth, it seemed like wam was starting to take it more personally. There was also the radical change in posting style (red for comments & postwalls) that in the normal course of events would seem to be NAI, but I'm not entirely sure.

I don’t think that was too odd for Wam; I’m pretty sure I’ve wound him up enough to get similar reactions in the past (although in the game I’m thinking about, he was scum ).

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe we have our wagon and counterwagon for toDay. I'm assuming LG is going to abstain again except in case of tied vote. I also don't know if Snide is going to feel interested enough to cast a vote, or get replaced in time for someone else to. That being said, it looks like bessie and Suzaku will be the deciders.

My tunneling self is convinced that I am correct about Seven and jimbob being the mafia team and would be fine with eliminating Seven, but my preference would be to eliminate the cult because cults suck and I was considering not signing up for this game for that reason.


@Seven I haven’t reread BoomFrog or moody yet. I have some important paperwork I need to do tonight but will try to do a complete reread.

[Seven]

@Seven I haven’t reread BoomFrog or moody yet. I have some important paperwork I need to do tonight but will try to do a complete reread.

No worries, it's more for toMorrow anyway. It's pretty obvious to me that Wam and Moody are the mafia team. You were keen to pick up on Moody's post here. He only saw the situation that way because he has TMI that Wam is mafia and knew what I was saying was accurate.

But by the time I read the thread Seven had already posted and claimed. My mafia!jimbob theory is partly because Seven was so quick to claim the kill.

I claimed so town wouldn't have to waste time speculating as to why he was killed and being misled by it.

My tunneling self is convinced that I am correct about Seven and jimbob being the mafia team and would be fine with eliminating Seven, but my preference would be to eliminate the cult because cults suck and I was considering not signing up for this game for that reason.

Attempting to eliminate cult at this point wouldn't be a good idea unless they have the mpolo-arsonist mechanic I was speculating about before which could cause us to lose suddenly. But we need my flip to 1) resolve jim, so somi can revive him, 2) lead town to the correct mafia team, and 3) verify that investigative results aren't necessarily accurate (e.g. Sniper's mafia result on me).

From there, if you can come to the conclusion that Sniper is telling the truth (it's improbable that he is lying because why would scum!him claim cop when there was already a claimed cop, and why would he claim mafia on me when it would lead to him being killed the next day), then scum likely has the ability to manipulate investigative results (perhaps even in a generalized way last night, hence why your jim result is what it is). If so, regardless of whether they have a general disruption ability or a specific framer ability, it is unlikely that TSS was specifically targeted Night 1, being the newbie with several power players in the game (perhaps he was rolecoped though and that is why he was targeted night 2), and it's unlikely a general disruption ability can be used consecutively or even more than once. So you can infer that the result on Somi is correct. And finally, if it clicks together that Wam/Moody are the mafia team, it will leave Laser as the only possible cult leader.

Just keep in mind that with so many scum in the game, you guys: bessie, jim, somi, suzaku, and snider will need to be fully united in who you vote against.

[Seven]

btw you will need to keep at least one mafia member alive until you verify the survivor is dead. The fact that Pat wouldn't join the moody wagon to save herself is very not survivor-like. Hopefully, there is a gravedigger type role or something, or perhaps once somi is killed all the dead people will flip? Otherwise, you'll have to flip Suzaku/Pat before endgame.

[LaserGuy]

There's nothing to defend against. You're making a claim that Jim killed boom. I know that's not the case so would like to try and sort what is going on. I've been resigned to being eliminated ever since I truthfully claimed my role.

Interesting. You are role fishing so that jimbob could have his explanation ready if he is resurrected.

How confident are you in scum!jimbob in the event Zen flips Town?

My understanding is that PGO is a passive ability. JoaT utilizes active abilities. Sniper is either insane or he and somi are simply Mafia. I think moody is the most reliable hit, however based on Booms play. And I don't think I trust laser.

I’m think I’ve played a game where the player had to decide to activate the ability because it couldn’t be used on consecutive nights.

I believe you are thinking of FrozenFlame's role in Crossover.

My ability reports the faction (i.e. town, mafia, cult, or survivor) of the targeted player, I'm guessing with some exceptions like a godfather or a framer.

Did it actually say specifically 'Seven is mafia' or did it say something like 'Your target is mafia'?

This is my final read list and legacy unless some new information comes up.

Hmm.

I think both The Snide Sniper and Patzer's roles are true. Mafia has some sort of manipulation role to combat this, like the fabricator variant that was in the Wolf on Wall Street. I think this is the most reasonable explanation for Sniper's result on me. Hopefully, it means his result on Somi is probably true. We need him to confirm that the format of his results is how he put it though. That is, that he specifically got a Town result on Somi.

I think if you are Town, it may mean there is a bus driver or something similar in the game. It may be something like this: Suppose bessie is a tracker, TSS is a cop, and you are a vig as claimed. You and a mafia player are bus driven. Bessie tracks you, and gets a result of "Your target visited player X". She infers that you are lying about killing BoomFrog and did something else. TSS targets you, and gets a result of "Your target is mafia", for the same reason.

For why I think Wam is scum, I implore you to look over his evaluation of me on page 24 and my responses outlining how he was misrepresenting me. He was pushing an agenda here, my elimination, not trying to solve me.

I don't know that this is necessarily scum indicative for Wam. See Wam vs fonti in ND3 and in Apex, for example. But PoE is fairly limited so you may be right.

Laserguy is my pick for Cult leader.

I wish.

He just smells indie to me and I think he is pandering to bessie with his latest mafia picks.

No, I just understand how bessie operates. But I see you get it in a later post.

[Seven]

I think if you are Town, it may mean there is a bus driver or something similar in the game. It may be something like this: Suppose bessie is a tracker, TSS is a cop, and you are a vig as claimed. You and a mafia player are bus driven. Bessie tracks you, and gets a result of "Your target visited player X". She infers that you are lying about killing BoomFrog and did something else. TSS targets you, and gets a result of "Your target is mafia", for the same reason.

The only thing about this is that Jimbob was killed, so he can't be mafia unless I am mafia covering for him.

[LaserGuy]

Yes, in that scenario jimbob would have been the mafia NK.

[LaserGuy]

I didn't say that it necessarily had to be you and jimbob who were bus driven though.

[Seven]

I didn't say that it necessarily had to be you and jimbob who were bus driven though.

If bessie tracked jim and sniper targeted me, what would be the other possible bus drive?

[LaserGuy]

I think you misread what I wrote.

[Seven]

[Suzaku]

But by the time I read the thread Seven had already posted and claimed. My mafia!jimbob theory is partly because Seven was so quick to claim the kill.

I claimed so town wouldn't have to waste time speculating as to why he was killed and being misled by it.

I was already coming around to thinking in this way. While I maintain the shooting boom was not the act of a good townie, claiming it to avoid pointless speculation certainly is (assuming it's true that Seven shot him in the first lpace, which I do believe at this point.)

It's actually possible that jim was visiting Boom for some benign reason and got taken out by the PGO, if there was one, and then Seven shot him after the PGO was expended. I still feel it's most likely that jimbob was the Mafia NK though.

Attempting to eliminate cult at this point wouldn't be a good idea unless they have the mpolo-arsonist mechanic I was speculating about before which could cause us to lose suddenly.

It's very unlikely that there is such a mechanic, as madge has previously stated that she doesn't like cult mechanics where you can suddenly find yourself on the losing side. To that point (fromthe sign up thread):

(if there is a cult, we will tell the players, and we will have some method of tracking the number of cult members so you don't think you're doing great killing scum and then all of a sudden you were one of three non-culters)

(perhaps even in a generalized way last night, hence why your jim result is what it is) - [emphasis mine]

Did I miss something, or are you speculating again?

My thoughts were that having a vig shot doesn’t fit with survivor; I mean I guess I could see it but still doubt it. And I don’t believe the cult leader would have a vig shot.

I can definitely see madge giving the survivor (especially an antisocial one) a kill. I agree with you on the cult leader, but I'm also sure that Seven cannot be the cult leader, modulo a day recruit which I don't believe exists (as we've seen no evidence for any day powers to this point).

Ninja's not read, as I thought I'd already submitted this post.

[LaserGuy]

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

This is my final read list and legacy unless some new information comes up.

Town
Seven: Phoenix
BoomFrog: Ellen Ripley, town Jack of All Trades
jimbob

bessie
the snide sniper

Lean Good

somitomi - Possible cult leader (resurrectionist)

suzaku - Town or Survivor

---

Lean Bad
laserguy - Possible cult leader (instinct)

Survivor or Town: patzer

Mafia
moody7277
wam


Details

I think the case for town Jim and for scum moody are both strong, and that upon my flip the jim case is irrefutable.

Jim Case:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Jim - Is not survivor because he is playing with too much gust and not afraid to be night killed. Is not cult for the same reason. So Jim as scum is mafia only. However, Jim was resistant to eliminating Pat at the EoD rather than taking the opportunity to eliminate a mafia cop; therefore, Jim is not mafia either.

Moody Case:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Been monitoring the thread. Wam's reactions in the wam-7en dustup have been a bit odd, worth taking him down to about a -1 rating. I'm still perfectly happy voting for the ersatz SK though.

If I am scum, at this point, it is likely that I am mafia considering Snipers results, but he is still treating me as if I'm SURVIVOR (what he's been referring to as am ersatz SK).

Keep in mind that this was Boom's legacy read as well. Bessie, you've mentioned before about how people never listen to dead town. This is a prime example of when you should.

For why I think Wam is scum, I implore you to look over his evaluation of me on page 24 and my responses outlining how he was misrepresenting me. He was pushing an agenda here, my elimination, not trying to solve me.

My read on bessie is as it was going into N2.

Bessie - Has been very open with her speculations even when they are a long shot (such as testing to see if there was a militant atheist (I don't know what that is btw)). Bessie as scum keeps this sort of speculation close to the vest/in scum chats.

Sorry I can't be more helpful here, she's just kind of obv town.

I think both The Snide Sniper and Patzer's roles are true. Mafia has some sort of manipulation role to combat this, like the fabricator variant that was in the Wolf on Wall Street. I think this is the most reasonable explanation for Sniper's result on me. Hopefully, it means his result on Somi is probably true. We need him to confirm that the format of his results is how he put it though. That is, that he specifically got a Town result on Somi.

For that reason I think Somi is town. The only concern here is that his role, resurrectionist, is an attractive cult leader candidate. However, we can rule this out in two ways: 1) the cult still only has 1 or fewer members at the start of Day 4 (assuming somi and suzaku are both alive then). This would confirm that Somi did not recruit Suzaku. Note, however, that the reverse is not true: the cult number increasing by 1 does not prove that Somi is indeed a cult. 2) We get verification that Snide's result does indeed come in the "Town" format.

The middle three players—Suzaku, Laser, and Pat—I am unsure on. Suzaku is as null as it gets. And while I think Patzer's and Sniper's abilities are both true, I don't think they exist as the same faction. We know Patzer isn't the cult leader, so she is probably Survivor. Laserguy is my pick for Cult leader. He just smells indie to me and I think he is pandering to bessie with his latest mafia picks. Actually, thinking about it, if Somi is verified as Town, then logically only LaserGuy can be the cult leader because we know Suzaku and Patzer are not.

Vote: Moody

I feel like every game I play with you, I spent half of my energy just trying to solve you and I still usually get it wrong. I really wish you had shot somitomi instead of BoomFrog though.

Anyway, I'm about 90% sure this is Town!Seven. I think the logic here basically checks out and I don't even really hate the conclusion that I'm cult leader because the alternative from his point of view (and my conclusion too, actually, assuming that Seven is Town which I think probably implies jimbob is as well) is that the result on somitomi is manipulated. Seven's tone has pretty consistently been that of a helpful townie who knows he's on thin ice.

I think we probably have scum in exactly {patzer, wam, moody, somitomi}. And I guess possibly Suzaku is recruited cult.

2x Vote moody

I think that should be E-1 if my count is correct.

[Suzaku]

@LaserGuy

If you think I'm recruited, how do you think it happened and who do you think is responsible?

[LaserGuy]

Presumably it would have happened when you were resurrected.

[Sabrar]

Votals:
Moody (4) - Seven, wam, LaserGuy
Seven (2) - Moody, somitomi

Not voting: bessie, Suzaku, The Snide Sniper

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Dusk starts in under 2 days.

Mod-note: Madge is afk for a short time, please pm me if you need urgent mod-action.

[LaserGuy]

Actually, there's an alt universe where TSS is Survivor and Patzer is Town. Survivor having a full faction cop and self-res seems plausible to me in a way that straight Town does not.

[LaserGuy]

Ah, it's Patzer/Moody + Wam + TSS. somitomi wouldn't claim to have done the rez if he were cult.

[LaserGuy]

2x Vote: Wam

[Wam]

Right so this is where I am.

I got quite wound up as others have stated as in my mind I had been fair to seven and then she was throwing an enormous pile of OMGUS back at me. I went away as I realised i needed some separation. I have been back and looked at my case and there was definitly an element of confirmation bias in what I wrote. Do I think Seven is anti town still, probably yes more below.

I think there is also another factor, and this comes back to my play on smashboards in things I like game. Which is I made endgame despite being the 2nd choice elim every day. That made it easy for scum font to push my elim in LYLO, so this may sound harsh but if seven is town I don't think we can afford for town Seven to make LYLO.

Can I see town seven shooting boom, claiming it in thread, yes. Can I see scum seven shooting boom, claiming it in thread yes again.

So if it's town seven we elim, I eat my hat and come back to the reads. If it's scum seven where would seven's mind be today. Seven would know they are likely to be eliminated so would be looking to distance from their buddy. So that brings me on to the below.

So when I was doing my re read I was suspicious of Seven and Buddy somi as seven's somi read has been weird all game. Seven I know you are now town reading Somi but can you explain this comment more?

Somi - many scum tells

Also I did ask some questions here you didn't answer. viewtopic.php?p=9005#p9005

So then I saw how much Seven was obsessed with the idea of scum boom bussing moody and it made me wonder if she was projecting. That in that scenario Seven would bus hard so obv boom was likely to be doing the same. Which made me wonder about whether Seven was bussing moody. Hence my vote, was there to try and work out if Seven was distancing and bussing or genuinely wanted Moody eliminated. The complete lack of reaction to me voting for the player who according to seven is my mafia buddy viewtopic.php?p=9072#p9072 strikes me as weird odd but I can see scum seven being uncertain on how to respond or town seven giving me enough rope to hand myself with.

I'm also suspicious that once I pointed this out

viewtopic.php?p=8925#p8925
Suddenly now snide has a mafia result.on seven they have gone from obvs town to definitely scum. I asked the question as town seven who genuinely believed in their snide=obv town earlier in the day would have been looking at other options. Instead seven ignores it.

Seven has swung back to Snide is town and there is something manipulating the results. I don't think there is a redirect in this game with the rez/recruits/extra kills I think it would be too much. If seven flips town I think snide is actually mafia who overnight got given a plan from a more experienced team mate who is banking on seven being a different anti town faction and dropped the ball by saying mafia not anti town and backed themselves into a corner.

There is an edge case in the above where this also works for cult but only in the case where Jimbob is the other cult member. d

I have been thinking about could seven be mafia. I would be very surprised if mafia didn't have a limited ability to permantly kill players. Could I see them having a 1 shot perma kill in addition to the normal kill in the same night. Not sure, gut reaction was no way not balanced but given the rez powers available in this game I could see a one shot additional kill being balance able.

On Moody do I think moody is scum yes, Do I think they should be today's elim no.

My theory is as below. Strikethroughs to indicate players in limbo

Mafia
Seven
Moody

Town
Snide
Somi
Jimbob
Suzaku

Dead town
Boom

Cult leader and survivor
Laserguy*
Bessie
Patzer**

* I wrote this out then saw laser's double vote which I don't think the cult leader would have so the only anti town role laser could have is survivor.

Which sends me off on a tangent that I want to look into. cult leader bessie....

Unvote

For now

[Suzaku]

I have been hit with a work disaster, so am not likely to be able to post much tonight.

[Wam]

Also note deadline is approximately 6 hours earlier in the day so I won't be around at deadline.

[Wam]

I feel slightly like I'm talking to myself but that maybe a time zone issue!

[moody7277]

Well, I'm at the point where the only thing that might change my mind would be hard data from flips. No amount of rereading without further context is going to alter what my current state of the game is, namely:

Voteables:
Seven
Snide
somi

Non-Voteables:
LaserGuy
Suzaku

Debatable:
wam
bessie