Tales of Desolation mafia Engame

[heuristically_alone]

Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed

[JC_DADDY25]

Vote: EGW

[Bop]

To me its just playing optimal way and not assuming stuff about the setup when we have no confirmation

Assuming stuff about the setup taking flavor into account is literally how we got Wam. That's why we are where we are. I know not everybody likes that aspect of themed games(whereas I love pouring over the flavor), but it's here regardless.

Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed

Gunning for the one claimed cop is not helping my feelings here.

[Santygrass]

To me its just playing optimal way and not assuming stuff about the setup when we have no confirmation

Assuming stuff about the setup taking flavor into account is literally how we got Wam. That's why we are where we are. I know not everybody likes that aspect of themed games(whereas I love pouring over the flavor), but it's here regardless.

No, because the lord of calamity and shepard aligned or not were stuff that had a mechanical focus (cop+everyone had it on their PMs) , and even without game context we could sort it out somewhat (At least I did) . Whereas this is just setup speculation + interpreting what the flavor resolution of the night implies , which in no way is the same sense of direction/security about it.

Again, I think the Indy possibility and stuff is likely, but acting as if that is the case and dismissing the worlds in which we just have to find the last malevolence mafia is what I think is not good

[Santygrass]

To me its just playing optimal way and not assuming stuff about the setup when we have no confirmation

Assuming stuff about the setup taking flavor into account is literally how we got Wam. That's why we are where we are. I know not everybody likes that aspect of themed games(whereas I love pouring over the flavor), but it's here regardless.

Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed

Gunning for the one claimed cop is not helping my feelings here.

Imagine heury is mod confirmed town, how would you proceed Bop?

[Sabrar]

The safe yeet today is heury because that will mean only 1 NK for sure (otherwise we're in some weird 10-3-2 setup which I doubt), so in worst case scenario we will still be at 5-2 tomorrow, so even another misyeet will not doom us immediately. This is excluding all other considerations from the analysis.
The second option is to hunt for scum today instead. Worst case is we misyeet and lose 2 other townies during the night. That will leave us with either
a) 5-1 (heury is truly Vig and scum had only 3 members),
b) 4-2 (heury is Vig but scum started with 4),
c) 4-1-1 (heury is SK, scum started with 3),
d) 3-1-2 (heury is SK, scum started with 4).

I doubt Adum would consider d) a good design. In case it's a) or c) we can still safely yeet heury D4 and be assured to get to a 3-1 endgame on D5. The only issue is if we have b) but fail to realize it.
If worst case does not occur (e.g. we yeet scum today, or only 1 NK happens or 2 NK but one of them hits scum), then we can still safely yeet heury tomorrow in all scenarios without risk of immediately losing.

Therefore I think we should take a little risk and let heury shoot again.

[somitomi]

What do you think of Heury saying he didn't even notice that and claimed regardless?

Totally missed it! That removes the forced bit! I still don't think they're inherently cleared, but I don't think most of our givens are.

Yeah, I don't think Heury is cleared either, but they seem to be truthful about thinking they'd have to claim today.

@Bop, how many mafia do you think are left?

1-2? (making the total in-game at most 4. 5 would be a third of max player count from the start, that seems crazy.). To me it's either a. 1 Malevolence and a sk, b. just the sk, or c. 2 from a separate mafia faction. Either way, to me the Immonant awakening from devouring all 8 types of malevolence flavor from today points to a clear separate negative player or faction we have to deal with no matter how I slice it. Which

Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed

This is a bit out of the blue and so is JC immediately going along without any kind of comment.

Again, I think the Indy possibility and stuff is likely, but acting as if that is the case and dismissing the worlds in which we just have to find the last malevolence mafia is what I think is not good

I don't think Bop is disregarding that possibility entirely. I am concerned by you doing it the other way, i.e. dismissing all the worlds in which the remaining scum isn't malevolence mafia. The possibility of another faction is important to consider now because if there's another mafia group we can't find them based on analysing connections to madge and wam. It's possible there isn't a third malevolence mafia and we can't just PoE like it's not multiball because the PoE isn't the same if it is.

Imagine heury is mod confirmed town, how would you proceed Bop?

Do you think Heury is confirmed town?

[somitomi]

EBWOP:

1-2? (making the total in-game at most 4. 5 would be a third of max player count from the start, that seems crazy.). To me it's either a. 1 Malevolence and a sk, b. just the sk, or c. 2 from a separate mafia faction. Either way, to me the Immonant awakening from devouring all 8 types of malevolence flavor from today points to a clear separate negative player or faction we have to deal with no matter how I slice it. Which

I think a sentence is missing at the end here, but I agree with the setup spec so far

[moody7277]

I put an X on everyone for themself.

Yes, I saw that. That is as it should be, but you put yourself as towniest on your lists previous to the charts, which I find gauche.

Sabrar plotting out the scenarios makes me more comfortable that there is a bit of wiggle room if you are not interested in yeeting heury.

[Sabrar]

Literally my only issue currently regarding heury is that a Vig with unlimited shots seems too powerful (especially if we accept Santy's claim). Of course redirection might have been intended to balance things out but still.

[boomfrog]

The safe yeet today is heury because that will mean only 1 NK for sure (otherwise we're in some weird 10-3-2 setup which I doubt), so in worst case scenario we will still be at 5-2 tomorrow, so even another misyeet will not doom us immediately. This is excluding all other considerations from the analysis.
The second option is to hunt for scum today instead. Worst case is we misyeet and lose 2 other townies during the night. That will leave us with either
a) 5-1 (heury is truly Vig and scum had only 3 members),
b) 4-2 (heury is Vig but scum started with 4),
c) 4-1-1 (heury is SK, scum started with 3),
d) 3-1-2 (heury is SK, scum started with 4).

I doubt Adum would consider d) a good design. In case it's a) or c) we can still safely yeet heury D4 and be assured to get to a 3-1 endgame on D5. The only issue is if we have b) but fail to realize it.
If worst case does not occur (e.g. we yeet scum today, or only 1 NK happens or 2 NK but one of them hits scum), then we can still safely yeet heury tomorrow in all scenarios without risk of immediately losing.

Therefore I think we should take a little risk and let heury shoot again.

I think from a balance perspective we are in B or C. Scenario a (3 mafia vs 12 townies with a vig and decent town PRs) is not very balanced I think. So let's consider Heury's shot tonight as an extra town yeet.

1B (Heury is town vig, we yeet heury today, 4 mafia so we are currently 7-2)
Yeet heury go to 5-2, missyeet got to 3-2 LYLO - 2 missyeets to lose
2B (Heury is town vig, we don't yeet heury today, 4 mafia so we are currently 7-2)
missyeet, miss shoot, 4-2 yeet heury and lose - 2 missyeets to lose but we have to pick the 2nd "yeet" without info from the first
1C and 2C are exactly the same as B because we've assumed yeeting Heury in all scenarios. Mafia won't NE him if we've promised to yeet him the next Day.

So we are only worse off by delaying yeeting Heury unless we are in scenario A and I don't think we are. But I could be argued into it. But I'd rather get flips between yeet decisions and in the "1" scenario we get an extra night of actions as well.

@Heury: Have you fully claimed all details of your power? Are you confirmed town to Bessie? If not, what is her read of you?

[boomfrog]

@Santygrass: please elaborate on how you knew wam's claim was fake (besides flavor).

Because I am bodyguard. It would be extremely OP if I had another player that passively prevented me from dying while I am protecting someone else.

Laser protected Mak n1 , N2 I think near the end I softed quite strongly who I was trying to protect haha

Didn't you say that you had a guaranteed contradiction with wam? This is only a probable contradiction. Did you really go all in with that assumption? If wam had flipped town you'd have been auto-yeeted by town the next Day.

Also, side question, what do you think about the implications of wam being a traffic analyzer?

[boomfrog]

Let's just vote EGW today and then I'll likely be night killed

Vote: EGW

For both of you: What faction do you think EGW is on? Why do you think that faction has a flavor cop?

[boomfrog]

Santy, thoughts on us doing a full mass claim toDay?

[boomfrog]

i never know what to type for these things. can anyone recommend a good target for my power?

Just post your raw thoughts. Whatever you are thinking just think it out loud. Even if that's not anything you think is actually useful.

[heuristically_alone]

@Heury: Have you fully claimed all details of your power? Are you confirmed town to Bessie? If not, what is her read of you?

No.

Yes, I am confirmed town to whomever I devour.

I put an X on everyone for themself.

Yes, I saw that. That is as it should be, but you put yourself as towniest on your lists previous to the charts, which I find gauche.

Sentences like this is why you get miselim'd as town

[Sabrar]

So we are only worse off by delaying yeeting Heury unless we are in scenario A and I don't think we are. But I could be argued into it. But I'd rather get flips between yeet decisions and in the "1" scenario we get an extra night of actions as well.

If you're looking at it this way then this is true. However I don't think you consider the scenario where the worst case doesn't happen.
You argue that we can't be worse off by yeeting heury now, I'm saying we could do better.
Also, we are not 'promising' to yeet him tomorrow no matter what happens, we will look at flips and have a new discussion.

[moody7277]

Sentences like this is why you get miselim'd as town

Is it the vocabulary or the dismissive tone?

[Santygrass]

Again, I think the Indy possibility and stuff is likely, but acting as if that is the case and dismissing the worlds in which we just have to find the last malevolence mafia is what I think is not good

I don't think Bop is disregarding that possibility entirely. I am concerned by you doing it the other way, i.e. dismissing all the worlds in which the remaining scum isn't malevolence mafia. The possibility of another faction is important to consider now because if there's another mafia group we can't find them based on analysing connections to madge and wam. It's possible there isn't a third malevolence mafia and we can't just PoE like it's not multiball because the PoE isn't the same if it is.

Imagine heury is mod confirmed town, how would you proceed Bop?

Do you think Heury is confirmed town?

I feel like I am repeating myself and people still come to ask thing I've alreasy said at this point.
The moment I subbed in I clarified how I approach multiball, and this is still the case. As for Heury Ive said like 50 times like Im clearing them as non malevonce mafia, hence why I wouldnt yeet them today.

I think going today for Heury because they could be SK , only helps scum to not solve shit, and only talk about setup speculation.
I have talked why Its best/optimal to not yeet heury today and have them leashed, Sabrar and Frog have come to similar conclussion , I think its just the best for us to win.
Correct move in both multiball/and non multiball scenarios.
Heury being scum is great in multiball/indy worlds, but in worlds in which we are NOT in multiball , yeeting our town vig is like, a horrible move for us, specially if regardless if they are vig or sk they are forced to shoot who we want on the risk of being outed

[heuristically_alone]

I'm not the only who puts themselves as towniest

[Santygrass]

Literally my only issue currently regarding heury is that a Vig with unlimited shots seems too powerful (especially if we accept Santy's claim). Of course redirection might have been intended to balance things out but still.

Without knowing what the other scum has, this is a shot in the dark though to assume

[Santygrass]

@Santygrass: please elaborate on how you knew wam's claim was fake (besides flavor).

Because I am bodyguard. It would be extremely OP if I had another player that passively prevented me from dying while I am protecting someone else.

Laser protected Mak n1 , N2 I think near the end I softed quite strongly who I was trying to protect haha

Didn't you say that you had a guaranteed contradiction with wam? This is only a probable contradiction. Did you really go all in with that assumption? If wam had flipped town you'd have been auto-yeeted by town the next Day.

Also, side question, what do you think about the implications of wam being a traffic analyzer?

Its just that I am 100% sure that Adum/Ceme realize that combo is just broken for town.

Half town clearing other slot as town, that also protects them, and that cleared town being able to bodyguard risk free of dying? Its powerful af.

If wam flipped town, their claim of me being clear would've cleared me regardless so I was fine either way overselling my confidence (And I was right lol, that was never real fmpov y'all either too naive or idk what have you seen to think that claim had any sort of validity and wasnt Wam just scrambling to try to make something up that had the faintest slight of sense)

[Santygrass]

Santy, thoughts on us doing a full mass claim toDay?

I think it would be the best, considering what my role is and that I already claimed.
Also for a scum team that struggled with flavor, would also say that characters should be claimed, and make somi start personally. Then we can follow an order proposed by moody

[Santygrass]

Also claiming can help us help philipp better in who to motivate atp

[Santygrass]

So we are only worse off by delaying yeeting Heury unless we are in scenario A and I don't think we are. But I could be argued into it. But I'd rather get flips between yeet decisions and in the "1" scenario we get an extra night of actions as well.

If you're looking at it this way then this is true. However I don't think you consider the scenario where the worst case doesn't happen.
You argue that we can't be worse off by yeeting heury now, I'm saying we could do better.
Also, we are not 'promising' to yeet him tomorrow no matter what happens, we will look at flips and have a new discussion.

if the "we could do better" is also the scenario in where we make the worst yeet mech-wise for us in other scenario, then its not optimal at all fmpov