Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[boomfrog]

I have been prodded. It's been a busy day and I've been reading along but I'm only up to bottom of page 42. I'll try to finish the catchup in the morning. But I should sleep on time.

I'm starting to lean town on Sabrar but still have follow ups when we are done claiming. The EGW vote is deliciously spicy.

@Sabrar: Say as little as possible, but did you get the final piece needed for your solve midday? What is your % confidence that your solve is correct?

@JC: your lack of real takes and reads is a huge liability to town. You are the next compromise elem if we can't figure this out. Please participate more and actually post reads.

[Sabrar]

I've realized the final piece in the morning though I should have understood its meaning earlier (but the second to last piece came also in the morning). Midday was when I had time to sit down to put it all together and realized that I have enough pieces for a PoE. The solve uses a lot of independent inferences, I would be surprised if all of them were correct. In that sense you could call this a substantiated gambit.

[somitomi]

I feel like that isn't the only logical explanation and my gut is 100% on Huery being scum here. Especially with his actions around Boom. I'm sticking to that. I'm willing for the day to be EGW v Huery if it comes to it. That's how much I believe in it.

If you're that convinved, can you show me the flaw in my thinking or how an alternative theory explains those events?

So what's your probability that they're both wolves and Emperor Sabrartine is sacrificing EGW to clear himself?

If this was scum theater I'll self-vote right now, they deserve the win

Also I don't think there's anything wrong with changing your mind, just flip flopping implies to me that you weren't actually as confident as you seemed to be

There's a difference between "I think x is scum... Oh wait no it's y" and "guys I've solved the game. It's x, 100%......wait no it's 100% y for real this time". Maybe I just skimmed but I got more of the impression that egw (and sabrar I think) were coming across as type 2

Sabrar too? He seemed a lot more consistent to me than EGW

[Wam]

I've realized the final piece in the morning though I should have understood its meaning earlier (but the second to last piece came also in the morning). Midday was when I had time to sit down to put it all together and realized that I have enough pieces for a PoE. The solve uses a lot of independent inferences, I would be surprised if all of them were correct. In that sense you could call this a substantiated gambit.

What % of your infereneces do you think are correct?

Also just under 22 hours to go.we need to.start consolidating. I maybe around at deadline but it will be about 10.minutes before if that so don't bank on it!

[Sabrar]

What % of your infereneces do you think are correct?

85-95%
I have some that I am more than 98% sure, some that are around 90% and a few that are 70-80%.

[Sabrar]

Day 2 ends Thursday January 30th at 2 am.

Also just under 22 hours to go.we need to.start consolidating.

Countdown timer says 20 hours but link description says Thursday. Can we get a clarification please?

[moody7277]

If this was scum theater I'll self-vote right now, they deserve the win

The fact that it's Sabrar and EGW is what makes the probability >0% at all.

[boomfrog]

Alright, I've caught up. Couldn't sleep, this was too interesting.

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

@Santi: You've played a lot with EGW right? What's your read of him here?

[Santygrass]

Can we just vote Wam? That EGW vote just reeks of scum energy , Im on mobile so didnt properly catch up replyng to stuff añ.

But like the shallow reasoning on the sabrar vote, to then sheep sabrar to vote EGW with again a shallow reasoning, the slot Wam was townreading D1 and recently spent time rereading and like restating why they TRed there is just.... Not town at all. That vote its just agenda imo

[boomfrog]

I had this saved in another tab:

This is a good point, specially considering a Joat kindof role (dont think the I was a typo there if you know what I mean)

Help me out here. I don't know what you mean.

JOAT stands for : Jack Of All Trades .
Frog said JOIT at first. Look where the A and the I are on the keyboard , it isnt typo material.

Instead of "All" you replace it with a word that starts with I . Which leads me to believe its a Jack of Investigative Trades, or something along the lines. So between investigative actions, they chose to self target with a psychic n1 which is weird imo

Lol, this is the kind of thing I would do. But it was just a mental mistake. I typed 4 letters that sounded right and didn't think about it.

[Santygrass]

Alright, I've caught up. Couldn't sleep, this was too interesting.

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

@Santi: You've played a lot with EGW right? What's your read of him here?

This is my first game playing with EGW haha. The first game I played here I subbed in as mafia during the night and instakilled him cuz he had a clearing claim

[Santygrass]

And like, I think other than JC (?), Wam is the slot that could be teamed with most of the game here and just fit a lot of teams . Its crazy despite how sus they are how they are being allowed to be this UTR , despite me pushing there aswell idk

[boomfrog]

I'm so getting an earful from Boomfrog.

Lol, why? I love this part!

[boomfrog]

Alright, I've caught up. Couldn't sleep, this was too interesting.

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

@Santi: You've played a lot with EGW right? What's your read of him here?

This is my first game playing with EGW haha. The first game I played here I subbed in as mafia during the night and instakilled him cuz he had a clearing claim

Oh dang, who here has played with you much?

Regardless, are you town reading EGW still?

[Santygrass]

@Bop I think mainly the difference in your issue regarding the Fred vltes situation, is that you are taking Fred being voted and who Fred sussed as kinda being in the same string of logic, when to me not having the full context and not feeling the votes on Fred were much AI , its exactly one of the reasons I decided to hold the opinions of the flipped towns more close to heart. Like when in dount you just copy the homework of the people who was here reading and stuff .
I dont know if Im making myself clear here since in my head this point was very clear but I just woke up (and am late for work) so I def feel like im skill issueing my phrasing lol

[Santygrass]

Alright, I've caught up. Couldn't sleep, this was too interesting.

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

@Santi: You've played a lot with EGW right? What's your read of him here?

This is my first game playing with EGW haha. The first game I played here I subbed in as mafia during the night and instakilled him cuz he had a clearing claim

Oh dang, who here has played with you much?

Regardless, are you town reading EGW still?

I do agree with you that it seems town, like the wagon formed on them I dont like it one bit. And they just have that towny stubborness/entitlement idk what adjective to use that just seems good.

I still think they are like, super off with hippo and would maybe worry a bit if their solve is 0/3. But yeah I think they are more likely tow than not

[Santygrass]

This is my third game here, so you dont have much luck in regards to meta tbh

[Santygrass]

Probs the one with more meta on me is Seven since we played together in MU and they brought me here to play, but dont think a mod can help you :wowee:

[Sabrar]

I'm so getting an earful from Boomfrog.

Lol, why? I love this part!

Let's discuss this after the game.

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

My interpretation is that he panicked when I switched to him and he desperately tried to put together any kind of alternative that he could sell. He was not interested in my solve, he immediately OMGUS-d me and gave up on his read on you. A complete 180 just because I voted him.

[boomfrog]

I solved the game. Believe me or not, that's the team. You're welcome town.

EGW's ego:

[Wam]

I'm so getting an earful from Boomfrog.

Lol, why? I love this part!

Let's discuss this after the game.

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

My interpretation is that he panicked when I switched to him and he desperately tried to put together any kind of alternative that he could sell. He was not interested in my solve, he immediately OMGUS-d me and gave up on his read on you. A complete 180 just because I voted him.

Egw also omgus me the moment I voted him and put me in the solve.

[boomfrog]

I've gotten a lot of strong town pings from EGW over the two game days, I'm going to have to think about this whole thing a bit.

My interpretation is that he panicked when I switched to him and he desperately tried to put together any kind of alternative that he could sell. He was not interested in my solve, he immediately OMGUS-d me and gave up on his read on you. A complete 180 just because I voted him.

Yeah I oversold my townread just there to encourage potential scum!santy to not bus. I was just handing him some rope to see what he'd do with it.

I think I see what you are talking about and don't currently see any flaws in it.

[boomfrog]

@EGW Do you think it's possible santy is snowing us?

What's your read of JC?

[Santygrass]

I would like my read on Wam to not be ignored btw

[boomfrog]

I would like my read on Wam to not be ignored btw

Sorry, I got too focused on only one possible reality.

Can we just vote Wam? That EGW vote just reeks of scum energy , Im on mobile so didnt properly catch up replyng to stuff añ.

But like the shallow reasoning on the sabrar vote, to then sheep sabrar to vote EGW with again a shallow reasoning, the slot Wam was townreading D1 and recently spent time rereading and like restating why they TRed there is just.... Not town at all. That vote its just agenda imo

I actually feel like wam's vote shows a lack of agenda. He voted Sabrar in the Sabrar vs me showdown but then accepted Sabrar declaring it TvT and followed Sabrar to vote on EGW.

It could be scummy opportunism but what do you mean by "agenda"?