Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Sabrar]

I claim here that the mods told me about fake-claims.
heury claims here to have received a 'no comment'.

[Wam]

I got thay bit. Where did egw say it was faked?

[Wam]

Unvote
Vote: EGW

I have a mechanical solve that says scum-team is {EGW, JC, Santy} by PoE.
I welcome people to argue against it either by pointing out connections or just general reasoning.
I might explain some of my observations later but providing full explanation would probably reveal too much info for scum.

Not boom?

Can you answer this sab?

Are you saying its tvt for you and boon?

[EGW]

Can someone link me to this alleged scumslip by sabrar? I must have missed it because I have no idea what everyone is talking about when they mention that

That was Heury's reasoning for scumreading Sabrar. I think Heury was faking that. Also, I now realize you and the whole town are being snowed by Ahippo. Now I have a strong hunch that he doesn't have a motivate as a claim at all.

Here you go Wam.

[EGW]

See, if I'm wrong on Sab, then to me it would make sense that Heury + Boom are the team. Yet then why is Sabrar voting me? Why does Heury follow along opportunistically here? Note: Heury has done this before as mafia too.

[Wam]

So what do you think huery faked?

[EGW]

Boomfrog- D1 Boomfrog almost felt too eager to make pushes. This read may be based off of my poor memory of Boomfrog’s gameplay, but he seemed too quick to lead town. D2 my concern is if he’s scum that he is misleading us right to scum’s hands if it helps scum to know our flavor alignments. This may be something that we can resolve as true or fact later in the game, so I’m fine with holding on the D2 yeet, but leaning scum, but not leaning as far as I was end of D1. No one seems to fit in as a scum partner but I don’t believe Boomfrog can be an indy, so maybe that should be taken into consideration as well as a point in their favor.

Sabrar - Currently assuming full scum due to potential scum slip.

This read here, Wam.

[Sabrar]

Can you answer this sab?

Are you saying its tvt for you and boon?

Sorry, I thought it was obvious by me unvoting. Yes, I'm now thinking it was TvT, mainly driven by my ego.

[Wam]

Boomfrog- D1 Boomfrog almost felt too eager to make pushes. This read may be based off of my poor memory of Boomfrog’s gameplay, but he seemed too quick to lead town. D2 my concern is if he’s scum that he is misleading us right to scum’s hands if it helps scum to know our flavor alignments. This may be something that we can resolve as true or fact later in the game, so I’m fine with holding on the D2 yeet, but leaning scum, but not leaning as far as I was end of D1. No one seems to fit in as a scum partner but I don’t believe Boomfrog can be an indy, so maybe that should be taken into consideration as well as a point in their favor.

Sabrar - Currently assuming full scum due to potential scum slip.

This read here, Wam.

So the slip looked damming on 1st pass I don't see what's faked?

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=85787#p85787
Are you saying huery didn't ask the mods here? Or.huery didn't get the answer he's claiming.

[EGW]

What I mean to say is, he is bussing Sabrar, but his reasoning is not genuine. Using a scumslip helps relieve himself to use reasoning. However, I never took stock into the scumslip, which is why I believe it was just an excuse not to analyze Sabrar's play. The more I think about this, the more I think that Heury is scum faking a read on Town Sabrar.

[EGW]

I'm amending my solve to be: Heury, Boom, Ahippo. I'll retract the theory that Ahippo doesn't have the role he claimed.

[Wam]

vote egw

Your wriggling like a worm on a hook

[Bop]

Promise I will have more thought out takes on the above but it's moving a mile-a-minute(was still hoping to look into the connection bit Sab talked abt), so I just want to get my claim and some quick thoughts out of the way so we can move on the claim stuff.

I'm from Berseria. I'm aligned with a Lord of Calamity, and not aligned with a Shepherd. @hueristically_alone with @Madge on deck, I think you're up.

In terms of a quick read, I have said this before, it hasn't changed. I do not understand a reading of ahippo's actions that are a "scheme" by any means. Especially here:

I think he does if he is the one that plans it from the beginning. I dropped Hippo and thought he may be just lost in the sauce. However, look at his post I quoted. He said he'd have a day off, but then no reads came of that. Feels like scum that got locktown read, and took advantage of that.

If ahippo is/had been scum taking advantage of being read universally as town (which honestly has not even been the case. Those who think he's town have been steadfast but there's been competing takes) taking advantage of that to me would be tailoring his opinions to help his team. Not "not having to post reads." That's not even a bad scheme, that's just not a scheme!


and

Can someone link me to this alleged scumslip by sabrar? I must have missed it because I have no idea what everyone is talking about when they mention that

That was Heury's reasoning for scumreading Sabrar. I think Heury was faking that. Also, I now realize you and the whole town are being snowed by Ahippo. Now I have a strong hunch that he doesn't have a motivate as a claim at all.

@EGW In terms of the "scum-slip-fake-claim-gambit" you're proposing, what happens if the mods hadn't clarified in that case? What would heur have gotten out of being the most outspoken person on that issue, dropping sab to the bottom if they're teammates? How would heur have gotten out of it?

[EGW]

I wish things had been different and I was able to actually spend time reading and giving real reads. My day didn't go that way. Sabrar was my motivate target, and you'll see that they actively told me not to speak up about it. We'll see whether or not Sabrar knows or acknowledges it.

This just seems odd because of him ignoring Mak's advice. He wants Sab to confirm to clear him, yet the whole town already locktowns him. Why do this? Plus, he replaces out as soon as I question him. No reads at all.

[EGW]

vote egw Your wriggling like a worm on a hook

How so?

[EGW]

I'm also very curious how Boom thinks at this moment.

[Wam]

vote egw Your wriggling like a worm on a hook

How so?

Your solve is changing by the minute as people poke holes in your theory around huery and sabrar

[EGW]

Your solve is changing by the minute as people poke holes in your theory around huery and sabrar

Sabrar's vote on me threw me off. It felt weird, did it not? I 100% believe Heury is scum, and one of Boom / Sabrar is his scum mate. Being wrong doesn't mean I'm scum for it. However, tell me your current thoughts on my Heury case.

[EGW]

It goes back to.what I was saying day start about sabrar being likely to.shoot bessie and I have a memory of.some posts around the night results giving a tmi vibe I will.go.back and see if I can find them.

I'm also wondering about this.

[Wam]

Your solve is changing by the minute as people poke holes in your theory around huery and sabrar

Sabrar's vote on me threw me off. It felt weird, did it not? I 100% believe Heury is scum, and one of Boom / Sabrar is his scum mate. Being wrong doesn't mean I'm scum for it. However, tell me your current thoughts on my Heury case.

But your 100% comes from huery faking the scumslip? But I don't see how that is AI at all. I can see that sabrar claims scum have false claims heury checks with mod and gets a different error as both alignments.

[Bop]

I wish things had been different and I was able to actually spend time reading and giving real reads. My day didn't go that way. Sabrar was my motivate target, and you'll see that they actively told me not to speak up about it. We'll see whether or not Sabrar knows or acknowledges it.

This just seems odd because of him ignoring Mak's advice. He wants Sab to confirm to clear him, yet the whole town already locktowns him. Why do this? Plus, he replaces out as soon as I question him. No reads at all.

But you've been questioning him, and he didn't replace the other times! What would have changed? I don't think trying to read into "Why a player would decide they no longer can play this game" when we literally don't know life circumstances holds a DROP of water, and meta game long term wise I really don't like setting a precedent where ppl try to dig into replacement reasons like that. Life happens!

[Wam]

Yeah I agree replacement requests should not be used for reads

[EGW]

But your 100% comes from huery faking the scumslip? But I don't see how that is AI at all. I can see that sabrar claims scum have false claims heury checks with mod and gets a different error as both alignments.

It doesn't at all. Re-read to see why I believe Heury is scum. It was supporting evidence, but not the crux of my evidence. This shows you aren't reading.

[EGW]

If someone else flipped Indy right now, what would your read/lean be for Court?

It would be a scumlean yes, and I would re-evaluate. Do you have any idea who else would be Indy if not Court?

-0.5 for an "easy" push.

I voted Madge, and then Fred. I don't have a problem voting for whoever I feel is most likely to be scum. What matters most to me is the accuracy of the elimination. Mechanics is easy to focus on as scum instead actually focusing on scumhunting. I think his joking is intentional, especially the editing and voting no elimination twice. He wants others to think he's un-aligned with mafia, and it has been working. Now, you disagree on Fred being scum. Any better ideas? By the way, I like this post from you. It strengthens my town-lean of you a bit.

If someone else flipped Indy right now, what would your read/lean be for Court?

Also I completely disagree with your assessment of freddino. I don't blame him for wanting to understand the mechanics before starting to look for scum. I also think you're reading too much into some of his jokey mannerisms. -0.5 for an "easy" push. I do agree that getting some actually reads from him would be beneficial in getting a more guaranteed read.

@freddino can you give us at least at this point some candidates you believe would be desirable to vote?

Who do you think should go then if you could choose a name?

I don't have any leans toward an Indy at this moment, rather a small list of players I do not believe are indy (freddino, Madge). I believe hunting for scum first should be priority as the godfather is currently a greater threat to town.

Currently EGW has been pushed to my top suspect, due to seeming to appear as an opportunist. Also, your reads matchup the setup perfectly which before this game I wouldn't have thought much about, but I keep thinking about what Bessie said about being suspicious of players whose reads matched the setup and I am inclined to agree. I am not opposed to a Sabrar vote as this time either. And I would like to hear more for Madge.

@Sabrar and Madge. Top 3 candidates to vote today?

[EGW]

I'll bite.
VOTE: EGW
EGW's play style here reminds me exactly of another player that once defended me beginning of game, then brought forth a bunch of information to get me miselim'd. And that player ended up being scum.