Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Santygrass]

Like how is that your only comment about it after all frog had posted / sabrar replies there

[Santygrass]

Heury's reads -

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Ahippo – has been very transparent about lack of strong reads and confusion. Also they don’t feel defensive when being questioned or accused which I feel is more natural for town. That coupled with the early role claim and transparency of how it would be used (random number generator). I am concerned with the lack of scum hunting. UPDATE: Since Sabrar confirmed receiving motivator action then I’m assuming at this point ahippo is cleared town (much more likely) or sabrar and ahippo are scum mates (much less likely). If Sabrar flips scum, ahippo is still likely town

EGW- Scum hunting and taking care to dissect others posts and follow up with plenty of questions. They are open to discussions and willing to adapt their reads. Flipping Mak their scummiest read D1 is evidence evolving suspicions and in general his reads all seem to be uninfluenced by other players. EGW was also quite cocky about his understanding of competing wagons and how helped get competing wagons and reads based off of it. Town. If EGW is scum, could be a less active scum partner not pushing against him such as Laserguy/Somitomi

JC - Will share in near future. Town lean

Makhaira – There was something in D1 that Mak said that had me learning town, but now I can’t find nor do I remember what it was. I feel like it was something along the lines of I recall Mak having a manipulative nature and this game seems considerably less manipulative. They have been structuring their reads in a way that gives the necessary content but isn’t ordered perhaps purposefully to make it more difficult for scum to understand the reads. I am slightly concerned that Mak is so widely town read but most everybody and maybe only EGW is seeing through a charade but lean town., Potential scum partner is Boomfrog. There was an interaction where Mak seemed back and forth and could be a strategic effort to manage a scum partner’s slot without making it obvious.

Madge – If not a secret mod, then based off of lack or reads and only small bits of efforts here and there, this is typical madge behavior D1 and I do believe Madge always tries a bit harder as scum. Due to indifference to the game at this point, lean town.

Wam - Null working on read

Somitomi Null working on read

Bop – During D1 was the most active scum hunter. They were adamant on the importance of Day 1 content and showed some frustration towards players with limited D1 content which shows consist with their playstyle. Bop’s been consistently engaging and re-processing their reads. I particularly like 2 full reads lists D1 adapting to updated conclusions. Town lean. I think most likely scum partner is tehbubblez. There was a couple interactions between them that flagged for me during the time I was tunneling more on tehbubblez and Bop’s second read list dropped tehbubblez down to one of scummiest players at the point when is seem sure that tehbubblez would be the first elim.


TehBubblez - Same opinion at end of D1, except only slight scum lean now. If they are scum don't feel like they deserve to get away with that playstlye, so am rather hopefuly they are frustrated town.

Boomfrog- D1 Boomfrog almost felt too eager to make pushes. This read may be based off of my poor memory of Boomfrog’s gameplay, but he seemed too quick to lead town. D2 my concern is if he’s scum that he is misleading us right to scum’s hands if it helps scum to know our flavor alignments. This may be something that we can resolve as true or fact later in the game, so I’m fine with holding on the D2 yeet, but leaning scum, but not leaning as far as I was end of D1. No one seems to fit in as a scum partner but I don’t believe Boomfrog can be an indy, so maybe that should be taken into consideration as well as a point in their favor.

Sabrar - Currently assuming full scum due to potential scum slip.

This is a really good reads list. Like, A) it's shows a very townie perspective sincerely trying to solve, especially the Makhaira read. But B) this skill in reading shown here is a huge improvement over the Heury I know from years ago. You've really grown man, I'm impressed.

With the Fake Claim conflict dismissed what's your updated read on Sabrar (and are there any other secondary updates to others?)

Why do you not find my point to Santy about theBubblez persuasive?

I like to push people D1 to see where others are wiling to follow, and I like to move around so I can get a feel for any connections or resistance on as many players as I can, with the balance of trying to make my pushes significant enough to be taken seriously. I do this every game that I'm not pulling some bizarre D1 stunt. (I do miss pulling D1 stunts though). Why do you find this pattern scummy? (Your D2 concern is valid, I respect the paranoia)

Hmmm I like this. Im not fully there on liking the list that much ( a bit peeved of it having somi-bubblez separated and like no mention of Laser-me) but overall agree with feeling natural and it not having nothing that looks bad. It gets a passing grade in my book, but seeing you like it this way kinda makes me like it more if it makes sense lol

[Santygrass]

I am aligned with a Lord of Calamity, and with a Shepherd . I am from Tales of Berseria . I am aware that not all players know of characters that are from the past .

I could maybe say more or some details but might just be too obvious and out my flavor lol

[Santygrass]

Why do you not find my point to Santy about theBubblez persuasive?

What's persuasive about it?

I pointed out the Santy why I think theBubblez is lock-town. I assume anyone else reading every post would also consider the evidence. Did you not find my point persuasive?

Also that reminds me:
@Santy Your response to my point was very noncommittal. Were you persuaded? Also, please claim your associations. (And I guess answer whatever EGW's question was too please.)

Persuaded as in
Do I think they are lock town? no. Do I sus them or have them in PoE ? No as well so it did help me to move them up. Im willing to have somi slot as town until my PoE stops making sense

[Santygrass]

@JC_DADDY25 and @wam, still waiting for you two to weigh in on me vs Sabrar. (But enjoy your weekend. this is more of a reminder not a demand)

I do think on this whole ordeal you kinda just obvtowned just based on belief and motivation to get to Sabrar alone tbh .
Wam is probably the wolfiest input inbetween , like they aknowledged and said nothing relevant. JC usually lurks and is not much of a talker so leaning more NAI

Im not as convinced as you are that Sabrar is scum. I was thinking they were likely flavor cop, but seeing that they targeted Mak apparently they are not. Its somewhat positive mech of them to not be seen visiting Bessie or Moody though

[Santygrass]

@Sabrar are you still sure Boomfrog is scum ? Even if answers is yes , could you let me know what is your view/reads assuming frog flips v?

And if you are sure frog is wolf would need a little bit of help / elaboration on your read in light of recents post. Like the scumhunting motivation from frog its just really there yknow . Even if you ignore the whole ordeal withh you, how they question people based on their hippo read, or their point abount bubblez being clearing for it. Its just them like *caring* about their townreads as well and I read it as really pure

[Santygrass]

Town
Moody
ahippo
Boomfrog
Bop


Lean Town

Madge
Somitomi
Mak

PoE

heury
Sabrar

EGW

JC
Wam


I think something like this if I had to sort the playerlist rn, the townreads being the most confident ones, and Sabrar/EGW/Heury the ones I feel the iffiest about. Mak aswell I initially put them as town banking on laser read + my gut, but like if im wrong on Sabrar/EGW them not feeling as good as Mak is something that worries me a bit? And honestly me not remembering something strikingly towny compared to my other townreads made me put them down a tier

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 2.4
1. Makhaira(0) -
2. EGW(0) -
3. Wam(1) - Santygrass
4. Sabrar(1) - Boomfrog
5. ahippo(0) -
6. TehBubblez Somitomi(0) -
7. Boomfrog(2) - EGW, Sabrar
8. Bop(0) -
9. JC_DADDY25(0) -
10. heuristically_alone(0) -
11. Madge(0) -
12. Laserguy Santygrass(0) -

Not voting: Makhaira, Wam, ahippo, Somitomi, Bop, JC_Daddy25, heuristically_alone, Madge

With 12 players alive it takes 7 to eliminate


A new deadline has been decided and it turns out that 2 am EST seems to make the most sense given people's timezones, combined with low response rate means + extensive V/LAs made me go with Monday/early morning Tuesday deadline + first extension. New deadline is that:
Day 2 ends Thursday January 30th at 2 am.

Counting error fixed, votes should be all correct though.

[Sabrar]

I think we should save this discussion for after everyone has claimed. A side effect of this analysis is explaining to scum exactly what they should be doing during this claim.

I legitimately hate this response.

I feel like Im missing something here? What was in specific about the way it was proposed that you are against Sabrar?

Boomfrog proposed it like it was a 'very useful strategy'. I explain here why I don't think it can be the case, and therefore Boomfrog focusing on it to that degree is not helpful.

@Sabrar are you still sure Boomfrog is scum ?

Am I sure? Of course not. Do I think he is? Yes, though to a lesser degree than at the start of the day. What Boomfrog said about PoE is also true for me, I do not have strong suspicions on others, because there are a multitude of individual townie-pings.

[Santygrass]

What are your town pings ?

I know you said you were struggling because you were not sure standard process applied, but I still infer you have some slots you favour more than others. (Also I would advise you to just solve normally and not weigh the multiball possibility so much to get to a mafia flip more confidently but dont want to force you to solve my way)

As for the claim stuff, I dont see much of the value yeah but if there are flavor cops at least it verifies the info a bit more so eh. At least dont see a particular issue with it 'not being as helpful/super useful' . So in a way I kinda understand why it was a bit eyebrow raising the opposition.

Your point explaining why it is probably not as good is true though for the most part imo, in a way that I dont expect for it to leads us to mafia just by that. And more likely the value just being taking away maybe fake-claim possibilities from mafia forcing them to partly claim flavor stuff early ig.

If you are town I think the best way to get back on a better track is still try to develop and explore other reads not being frog

[Santygrass]

For example, what do you think about the slots I have in my PoE (those that are not you obv)

[Sabrar]

I will go through the list and collect my town-pings today.

[heuristically_alone]

Heury's reads -

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Ahippo – has been very transparent about lack of strong reads and confusion. Also they don’t feel defensive when being questioned or accused which I feel is more natural for town. That coupled with the early role claim and transparency of how it would be used (random number generator). I am concerned with the lack of scum hunting. UPDATE: Since Sabrar confirmed receiving motivator action then I’m assuming at this point ahippo is cleared town (much more likely) or sabrar and ahippo are scum mates (much less likely). If Sabrar flips scum, ahippo is still likely town

EGW- Scum hunting and taking care to dissect others posts and follow up with plenty of questions. They are open to discussions and willing to adapt their reads. Flipping Mak their scummiest read D1 is evidence evolving suspicions and in general his reads all seem to be uninfluenced by other players. EGW was also quite cocky about his understanding of competing wagons and how helped get competing wagons and reads based off of it. Town. If EGW is scum, could be a less active scum partner not pushing against him such as Laserguy/Somitomi

JC - Will share in near future. Town lean

Makhaira – There was something in D1 that Mak said that had me learning town, but now I can’t find nor do I remember what it was. I feel like it was something along the lines of I recall Mak having a manipulative nature and this game seems considerably less manipulative. They have been structuring their reads in a way that gives the necessary content but isn’t ordered perhaps purposefully to make it more difficult for scum to understand the reads. I am slightly concerned that Mak is so widely town read but most everybody and maybe only EGW is seeing through a charade but lean town., Potential scum partner is Boomfrog. There was an interaction where Mak seemed back and forth and could be a strategic effort to manage a scum partner’s slot without making it obvious.

Madge – If not a secret mod, then based off of lack or reads and only small bits of efforts here and there, this is typical madge behavior D1 and I do believe Madge always tries a bit harder as scum. Due to indifference to the game at this point, lean town.

Wam - Null working on read

Somitomi Null working on read

Bop – During D1 was the most active scum hunter. They were adamant on the importance of Day 1 content and showed some frustration towards players with limited D1 content which shows consist with their playstyle. Bop’s been consistently engaging and re-processing their reads. I particularly like 2 full reads lists D1 adapting to updated conclusions. Town lean. I think most likely scum partner is tehbubblez. There was a couple interactions between them that flagged for me during the time I was tunneling more on tehbubblez and Bop’s second read list dropped tehbubblez down to one of scummiest players at the point when is seem sure that tehbubblez would be the first elim.


TehBubblez - Same opinion at end of D1, except only slight scum lean now. If they are scum don't feel like they deserve to get away with that playstlye, so am rather hopefuly they are frustrated town.

Boomfrog- D1 Boomfrog almost felt too eager to make pushes. This read may be based off of my poor memory of Boomfrog’s gameplay, but he seemed too quick to lead town. D2 my concern is if he’s scum that he is misleading us right to scum’s hands if it helps scum to know our flavor alignments. This may be something that we can resolve as true or fact later in the game, so I’m fine with holding on the D2 yeet, but leaning scum, but not leaning as far as I was end of D1. No one seems to fit in as a scum partner but I don’t believe Boomfrog can be an indy, so maybe that should be taken into consideration as well as a point in their favor.

Sabrar - Currently assuming full scum due to potential scum slip.

This is a really good reads list. Like, A) it's shows a very townie perspective sincerely trying to solve, especially the Makhaira read. But B) this skill in reading shown here is a huge improvement over the Heury I know from years ago. You've really grown man, I'm impressed.

With the Fake Claim conflict dismissed what's your updated read on Sabrar (and are there any other secondary updates to others?)

Why do you not find my point to Santy about theBubblez persuasive?

I like to push people D1 to see where others are wiling to follow, and I like to move around so I can get a feel for any connections or resistance on as many players as I can, with the balance of trying to make my pushes significant enough to be taken seriously. I do this every game that I'm not pulling some bizarre D1 stunt. (I do miss pulling D1 stunts though). Why do you find this pattern scummy? (Your D2 concern is valid, I respect the paranoia)

Thanks. That means a lot coming from you. I however will not let you pocket me if you're scum

Sabrar is back to a stronger town lean. I do like how with the whole scrambling vote on sabrar how he didn't get overly defensive or worried. If it was a true scum slip I think he would have felt a little more frantic and coming up with logical excuses (not that I believe sabrar would ever make up logic as town or scum).

Honestly BoomFrog, I should get Bessie to send me some of those old archive links and reread an old game of yours. I know you like to push people D1, but I just remember you feeling more patient about it and it feels less patient this game. You know the old saying, a scum BoomFrog is a dead town.

[JC_DADDY25]

Have to say what worries me the most, is that the scum team is made up of players I'm viewing as town. The Moody and Bessie elims are not typical, which is strange when you consider the players in this game. It's one thing to have one or two usual N1 elim options that may be protected, but there are multiple in this game and as the numbers dwindle it is going to be harder to get rid of them. So, I'm really starting to think that the most obvious town reads may be wolves in disguise, and that's scary because they're really good at paying too their town meta even when they're not.

I don't think Sabrar and Boom are connected, but I'm not secure in picking a side at this moment.

[EGW]

I am aligned with a shepherd, not aligned with calamity, Zesteria.

[EGW]

You may want to elaborate more on why you think this?

Note this post: EGW vote on Boom. I've felt this was odd, but at the time, Heury has been a strong hater for Boomfrog. However, he didn't join me when I voted him. Yet, then he posts this:

I love you. I hope we get to chat and hang out outside the game. Anyone want to pounce on BoomFrog with me?

Seeing that felt so weird to me, but it didn't click to me until you asked Heury about JC being his scumread. Did you note why he didn't respond to you?

When are you going to start talking about who you're fine with dying today rather than repeating other players' thoughts?

You handsome man you, join me. Also, how do you feel about Boom voting Bubbles?

My memory is not the best but I think it was Boomfrog that once said he doesn't vote scum partners on D1. If Bubbles flips scum, Boom wouldn't be by top consideration for D2

This was his reasoning to stay off Boom and to push Bubbles/Somi.

[EGW]

I love you. I hope we get to chat and hang out outside the game. Anyone want to pounce on BoomFrog with me?

This post was made when there wouldn't have been time to garner enough support for a Boom elim.

[EGW]

Does heury usually do these types of charts btw?

He has, as scum. Not technically a chart, but he tried a point system as scum and try harded. Sabrar, what do you think of this?

[EGW]

I still feel Heury may be our indy, if not he's scum. He's doing really well at trying to appear town, I'll give him that.

This is a very good observation.

I thought only Moody was stumped. I am fully aware that I am mis-yeeted D1 or D2 more often than not, so I have been putting in a purposeful effort to sound town, so that's likely what your noticing. I can't say you're that bad at the game for noticing that detail I do agree with your reads list for the most part, but disagree with your scum read of Sabrar and I think you should take a closer look at Wam.

This is Heury's response. Props to him admitting it, however history shows he's done this as mafia.

[Sabrar]

Sabrar, what do you think of this?

I don't put much weight into it. On the old xkcd forums I've once produced (as town) the exact same chart as heury did here. I've tried to use it to look for connections between players, I was unable to draw good conclusions. I've never done it since in this form again.
Everything has to be done for the first time, otherwise we become stale.

[EGW]

I pointed out the Santy why I think theBubblez is lock-town. I assume anyone else reading every post would also consider the evidence. Did you not find my point persuasive?

I saw it, never felt that was convincing, even though I already am there due to frustration and ragequit. Looking at it again, I don't see it lining up with his reads list, but I feel it's just more of him being genuinely frustrated, which I read as town. I just wanted to see you explain why you felt it was convincing.

[EGW]

Sabrar, does my posts help change your read on Heury? What's your reads list looking like.

[Sabrar]

Sabrar, does my posts help change your read on Heury?

Probably not, but I have only skimmed them. I reread heury yesterday as you asked and came to a strong conclusion. I'm sorry to say that I don't usually see your convictions as groundbreaking new evidence for which I would need to reevaluate.

[EGW]

You always say that. I'm trying to work with you and you are making it hard.

[EGW]

Unvote; Vote: Heury