Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Makhaira]

Ive been useless today so im going to flavor claim to help yall out on this issue, Im aligned with a shepard and NOT aligned with a lord of calamity

[Bop]

I think a flavour cop shouldn't be useless because it's bad game design. Unsure which parts I therefore disagree with.

I'd agree. If they're in the game (and I believe Boom's claim that they are) why would there be not one, but two flavor cops if they ultimately don't matter?

[Sabrar]

do believe psychics EV increases with time or decreases?

If Boomfrog was restricted to target himself with the psychic power then N1 was probably the best time to use it, this doesn't mean that another power of his wouldn't have been more useful. We can talk about different scenarios when you have more time.

Did boom claim his other joat powers?

No.

[Sabrar]

I'd agree. If they're in the game (and I believe Boom's claim that they are) why would there be not one, but two flavor cops if they ultimately don't matter?

I understand your point, but in that case please try to explain where my analysis goes wrong. It is a strictly logical deduction, starting from commonly known facts.

[EGW]

Ive been useless today so im going to flavor claim to help yall out on this issue, Im aligned with a shepard and NOT aligned with a lord of calamity

Make sure to give a reads list when you can. Santy is next to claim.

[somitomi]

Whenever I play mafia I get this worry that I have somehow lost significant mental capacity since my university days because even partial rereads like this seem to exceed my abilities now.

Page 8: Boom vote on Heury.
Page 9: Wam vote on Fred.

Is it just me or are people more trigger-happy than usual with their votes? The majority elim probably explains it though.
It's not really clicking to me why these votes are interesting to you in particular, Boom's vote on Heury feels more normal to me than the preceeding LaserGuy vote and even there I'm more concerned by his initial refusal to explain than anything else. Tiny ping.

EGW response to LaserGuy.

Looks like I disagree with past-EGW here, do you still hold that opinion regarding ahippo?

Page 11: Boom response to Sabrar "Good good, I was gettin worried."

Note: BoomFrog explains why he didn't talk to Mak about Bubblez but the more general point about not engaging Mak remains unadressed. He also seems to misunderstand what Sabrar means by "not a hard read". Also, "why aren't you suspicious of me" is kind of a weird stance to take actually, but for some reason I have the vague recollection of seeing such a thing before. Unfortunately I don't have bessie's archivist mind to tell me how that correlated with alignment.

Page 12: Boom vote on Bubbles post.

Well I am obviously biased and have insider information that Boom is wrong here, but that is a fairly solid case for D1.

Page 14: Laser suggesting flavor mass claim

I don't really have anything to say, but noted.
Same applies to the reads lists, I'm not sure I have enough context to see how well any of these mesh with reality at the time, but they've been read and hopefully absorbed into some heuristic. I do like Bop's detailed writeup although with some people I see a small discrepancy between the descriptions and the position.

That's enough D1 for me I think. I'm gonna start catching up in a bit, but it's late so I definitely won't make it to the end

[Bop]

I understand your point, but in that case please try to explain where my analysis goes wrong. It is a strictly logical deduction, starting from commonly known facts.

Fair.

Okay, let's talk one final time about flavor-claiming.

Facts we know:

- there is at least 1 town player from Zestiria (bessie)
- there is at least 1 town player from Besteria (moody)
- there is at least 1 town player aligned with a Shepherd (technically not true because we don't have bessie's confirmation but this is the sample given by the mod so we can safely assume it)
- there is at least 1 town player aligned with a Lord of Calamity (moody)
- scum have fake claims

Now there are 2 main possibilities:

1. Scum has a fake claim that matches their true identity for considering the above aspects. In this case scum can safely claim the info in their role-pm, and a flavor cop will not be able to find a discrepancy.
2. Scum was purposefully given a fake claim where the above info do not match. In this case a flavor cop's result might be useful, unless scum does the necessary research to come up with a better fake claim on their own (or they are already familiar with the games and don't have to do the research). I argue that this scenario might be considered bastard, but even if we accept the premise that the fake claims are deliberately different in order to make flavor-cop useful, it can be potentially be circumvented.

Conclusions:
1. result of the flavor cop alone is not enough to distinguish town from scum as flavors are varied.
2. scum can probably safely claim their true flavor and be consistent with their actual character-claim in the future.

Summary: flavor cop is actually useless, except in the specific scenario where scum have purposefully bad fake claims and cannot come up with a better one on their own.

@Boomfrog, @Bop: please point out the parts of the analysis that you disagree with and explain why.

I don't think the analysis is bad. You came up with two possibilities and I get how you got there. In possibility 1, a flavor cop who finds out character roles can still find discrepancies if it comes to that. But I admit, sure, if scum are given fake claims that match all of the same flavor, a flavor cop who focuses on game or lord/shep could not find a discrepancy. I agree.

But in that case, I would safely assume possibility #2 is far more likely! I don't see why this scenario would be considered bastard. It could still be circumvented in that case, sure. But roles such as millers, godfathers, abductors, role blockers, and redirectors, just to name a few, already circumvent investigative roles. That doesn't make them not useful.

[heuristically_alone]

Unvote

[Bop]

That said, Sab, you did claim-which counts for a lot and I don't want the day to end while we're doing the claims so I'll

Unvote

as everything plays out.

Ninja'd: By the exact same thing

[boomfrog]

Okay, let's talk one final time about flavor-claiming.

I think we should save this discussion for after everyone has claimed. A side effect of this analysis is explaining to scum exactly what they should be doing during this claim.

[Santygrass]

Apologies for not being here all day , will get to catching up soon

[boomfrog]

@JC_DADDY25 and @wam, still waiting for you two to weigh in on me vs Sabrar. (But enjoy your weekend. this is more of a reminder not a demand)

[Santygrass]

Two quick thoughts I have been pondering.

1. I think the current meta of accepting an early, unprompted claim as Town is still applicable, however I'm pretty sure that sooner or later it will backfire if people don't adjust, as there will come a courageous scum who decides to risk and exploits it. You have to take into account context and personality as well (if known). In this case there was a natural progression from ahippo's first inquiry, which I have immediately suspected to be PR-related because it was just too wolfy to be actual wolf.

2. Somewhat related to that, I dislike rigid rules that are taken as universal truths. I can understand the immediate reaction of 'rolefish = scum' but that is a shortsighted view that doesn't really tries to understand where the question is coming from. Similarly 'why me, fry me' is also questionable as I believe a natural reaction from a certain type of player is righteous indignation at being suspected.

I did read this, I didnt comment on it because its just an .. overall correct take / play in theory, and doesnt affect much of my read formation regardless since for hippo I was seeing the overall approach to their claim / game context and is just town butchering their own play overfocusing on mech.

Im not joking its a decent tell, not gonna tunnel bubblez here but I think it warrants some pressure

Slot hasnt done anything since. I think this slot flips red, Im very serious

Why did you go from 'not tunneling, just pressure' to 'seriously this is scum'?

Also just for my own understanding: what is the expected outcome of a 'pressure' vote? Are you hoping that the slot will suddenly improve their content, do you expect a claim, are you looking to see who joins the wagon?

Also dont have much of a problem with this? Like I think is a valid question from Sabrar, but also I see how someone not reacting much or well to a pressure vote for 1+day makes you sus them more



Anb, for the third post Im just going to quote how that interaction followed up, which resolved fine to me and not much to comment other than the view I see as fair / relate to Mak

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

I never said I was for sure you were scum,
I was not hardcore going after you at all
Im hardly tunneling you

Just to be on record, I think Mak is underselling himself way too much. This is not a read, just an opportunity for introspection.

Unvote
Vote: Freddino18

sab come on I was not casing bubblez like that was not intense pressure at all

Im willing to concede I may be underselling how much I was "tunneled" on bubblez but I really think its unfair to say I was going after the slot so hard that I was being oppressive to their playing experience or whatever

Im willing to concede I may be underselling how much I was "tunneled" on bubblez but I really think its unfair to say I was going after the slot so hard that I was being oppressive to their playing experience or whatever

In that I agree.

my stated goal was to run a wagon up to see who would join and and who would balk. no one really wanted to do it so Im extremely confused about how I some how put someone permanently on their back foot, if anything I got more blowback for the push than bubblez did pressure from my efforts

[Santygrass]

This post from Heury is very concerning: Post

You may want to elaborate more on why you think this?

I dont have much of a stance on heury , I do think their D1 EoD is like , towny on surface so im gthg'ing them villa. But wont be that surprised if they flip mafia. Also I have them unpaired with jc, since I dont think JC indy reads a partner that way. Sorry if its not much of an insightful read

[Santygrass]

Also, you didn't explain why you chose self-Psychic as your action N1.

This is a good point, specially considering a Joat kindof role (dont think the I was a typo there if you know what I mean)

Help me out here. I don't know what you mean.

JOAT stands for : Jack Of All Trades .
Frog said JOIT at first. Look where the A and the I are on the keyboard , it isnt typo material.

Instead of "All" you replace it with a word that starts with I . Which leads me to believe its a Jack of Investigative Trades, or something along the lines. So between investigative actions, they chose to self target with a psychic n1 which is weird imo

[Makhaira]

In between flights, I was skimming thru quick and saw sab claimed to have targeted me and it sounds like hippo claimed they supported sab?

Just so everyone knows I did NOT receive any confirmation last night that I was targeted by anything/anyone. Doesnt mean sab is lying but I cant confirm that he targeted me

Idk when the deadline extension is until but im gonna try to read as much as I can before passing out, im exhausted from flying all day so prob wont have the mental energy to do like a real substantive post but ill try to get updated reads up tomorrow after work

[Santygrass]

And regarding votes on Fred in specific, to my perception was such a lhf that I could see anyone voting there and having low accountability. Like there's for sure scum voting Fred, but I dont think or know anyone to have a particular outing or out of place vote . Specially considering the movement away from bubblez after their self vote, and the fact that for a yeet to go through plurality is *needed* , which just makes the fred compromise just the easy solution regardless idk. I'd say Wam vote looks the worst maybe, but thats my own bias view because of how likely I perceive Wam to be mafia regardless looking at their overall stances on the game feeling detached or not much invested

[Makhaira]

Oh and Im from zestiria not berseria forgot that part of my flavour claim earlier

[Santygrass]

Did I vote or push Fred?

I dont think you understood the point I was making in that post. Its the other way around that Im signaling/boosting (the fact that two dead flipped towns were sussing you+Wam)

In regards to this... Since I misunderstood your point about Fred being yeeted when I wasn't pushing for or voting on his yeet, but you still felt it worth noting that him sussing me and now being elimmed is sus... where do you see him sussing me or anyone for that matter?

Its the post Bop brought up previously . I mean Fred doesnt have much posts so its easy to find and like, peek what he was thinking with the questions he chose to make and leave as legacy?

[Santygrass]

Sabrar is very very mechanically minded. He should immediately be seeing the value of what I am proposing for partial claiming. And, he should be flipping his read and pointing out that I am tentatively town until we have proof of the cops existence or not. If I'm scum and was really double copped and claimed honestly, I will 100% be demonstrating that I am scum by asking for this mass claim. Once the mass claim came out, I would be shown as scum by the patterns that will surely emerge (if I was scum). This evidence should be changing his read on me.

I just.... really don't like this take. I'm no Sabrar but I am really mechanically minded and I don't see the value in this claim stategy at all. Assuming you're talking about the shepherd/calamnity thing, that is. If it's not alignment indicative, it gives us no info. If it is alignment indicative, scum will just claim what the majority has.

I also don't believe that two flavour cops visiting you is that much of a red flag. There could easily be two flavour cops in the game, one town and one scum (honestly this would further my suspicion that PIZZAZZ = multiball and maybe they're both scum flavour cops lol). Flavour cop could also be a general type of role, like maybe one cops our shepherd alignment and the other cops our calamnity. Or one cops our character name and the other cops the game we come from.

That said, one thing that does give me pause is Adumb is very opposed to using the word "cop" for roles like neapolitan, traffic analyst, etc. He famously said in Dancers "would you call a watcher a visit cop?". I remember this because I was going to call the traffic analyst in my game a "chat cop" if Adumb had RNG'd it, just for lols. I mentioned this to Sabrar at the time so it's kind of weird he didn't raise it.

@Boomfrog: did it say "flavour cop" in your result, verbatim? or was it something like "flavour reporter" or whatever?

@moody who should i vote for? going to have to log off soonish but can prob squeak out a quick post in the morning. i'm unsure after that and unsure of the deadline at this point.

@madge I still want to know who would be your preference in regards to vote. Last time when you were scum you used the town stum to not have much accountability for your votes, so like while I do understand if you are short on time to try to rely on sheeping a confirmed town, I still want you to see yourself take some stances, since your voteable pool is like, very broad from your last post

Look, the reason I won that game as scum was because I acted exactly as I would have as town (except for the killing people in the night part). I don't have a good read, and I trust moody over myself, but it doesn't extend to me voting from my 'good' pool. I might edit this when I finish the thread but at the moment I'd vote boomfrog - though this is admittedly complicated by the fact I won't be on at deadline (I don't think we have an official deadline again?), and I kind of want to vote someone who is likely to be one of the consensus picks so my vote can be helpful in the Last Hour Scramble.

As to the size of my voteable pool? The way I have decided I can read is by putting players in a "provisionally town" box and being willing to go with the town consensus about the rest. I find it easier to look at a post and be like "oh that person is town" than to be like "oh that's clearly a scum move". The vibe I get is most other players will have 3 players they won't vote out, 3 players they want to vote out, and say 5 they'll compromise on. I have 6 players I won't vote out and 5 I'll compromise on. So I've got strong reads on the same number of players, just polarised differently.

Reposting reads, again in no particular order:

good:
santy, ahippo, sabrar, somi

neutral:
egw, mak, wam, bop, jc, heury

thin ice:
boomfrog

random thought: could we have a condemner (new name for the role that has a target they want to vote out)?

My holiday starts in an hour or two, so this is going to be my last substantive post for a little while.

I vibe with this reply and overall post from madge. Moreso the questioning of frog because they are townreading Sabrar feels legit

[Santygrass]

since we don't know what exactly they'd look at(and can't find out without having said cops claiming which obviously is not a good idea)

For the record I know exactly what kind of flavor cops they are.

Noted to this and the above reply of psychic being potentially the best to use n1.
If later you claim to have some sort of cop or whatever I will hold you accountable . Because in my mind a self targeting psychic just has more odds of proving stuff the less player that remain alive, so depending on the other powers you have it would be best to save for later. (emphasis on depending on the other powers. So we will wait and see if)

[Santygrass]

I'm fine with either deadline but I agree that I don't have a schedule where it'll effect me either way. Since other players want to go to Wednesday, you can consider me down for the full extension.

Back from the Animal Kingdom for the scum Boom read. (gonna have to forget abt Messie just to keep my opinions clear)
Also back from Pick Your Poison for the scum Sabrar read. God. Let nobody say I did not try to understand meta here. And like, both players make good points. Unfortunately you're both good players and your posting styles don't differ in obvious ways which is infuriating. You also regularly butt heads. When I read animal kingdom I did start to believe "hmmm. Boom does post similarly in this game" but then Boom posted the same way in PYP as town! One thing that I really thought was interesting was Sabrar calling back to Animal kingdom in PYP as scum to push a scum read on town Boom. While I think PYP's actions rings more true to this game, honestly I feel like all I learned is both of you are capable of being convincing to players who know you deeply here so meta is not going to solve the situation in front of my eyes. I should focus on what's being said here. I should have come to this conclusion earlier.

This is just so town Im in awe at this level of effort and just *want* to solve stuff . Like at then end the whole point is moot and leads nowhere, but the effort is there and doesnt seem to have agenda so I sheep

[Santygrass]

And at the end of the day, Sabrar fighting extra hard against Boom after Boom's idea, saying "I'm not against it" but not acting in a way consistent with that to me really does rub me the wrong way the longer I sit with it.

You still don't understand. I'm not against the idea, I'm against the way Boomfrog proposed it. What would 'acting in a way consistent with it' look like in your opinion?

I feel like Im missing something here? What was in specific about the way it was proposed that you are against Sabrar?

[Santygrass]

I was told that Mods could not confirm or deny that mafia have fake claims, so for now I can only conclude that Sabrar has been caught in a lie. If sabrar and boomfrog were scum partners, does anyone think boomfrog and sabrar could fake this conversation on the post previous to mine?


Ahippo – has been very transparent about lack of strong reads and confusion. Also they don’t feel defensive when being questioned or accused which I feel is more natural for town. That coupled with the early role claim and transparency of how it would be used (random number generator). I am concerned with the lack of scum hunting. UPDATE: Since Sabrar confirmed receiving motivator action then I’m assuming at this point ahippo is cleared town (much more likely) or sabrar and ahippo are scum mates (much less likely). If Sabrar flips scum, ahippo is still likely town

EGW- Scum hunting and taking care to dissect others posts and follow up with plenty of questions. They are open to discussions and willing to adapt their reads. Flipping Mak their scummiest read D1 is evidence evolving suspicions and in general his reads all seem to be uninfluenced by other players. EGW was also quite cocky about his understanding of competing wagons and how helped get competing wagons and reads based off of it. Town. If EGW is scum, could be a less active scum partner not pushing against him such as Laserguy/Somitomi

JC - Will share in near future. Town lean

Makhaira – There was something in D1 that Mak said that had me learning town, but now I can’t find nor do I remember what it was. I feel like it was something along the lines of I recall Mak having a manipulative nature and this game seems considerably less manipulative. They have been structuring their reads in a way that gives the necessary content but isn’t ordered perhaps purposefully to make it more difficult for scum to understand the reads. I am slightly concerned that Mak is so widely town read but most everybody and maybe only EGW is seeing through a charade but lean town., Potential scum partner is Boomfrog. There was an interaction where Mak seemed back and forth and could be a strategic effort to manage a scum partner’s slot without making it obvious.

Madge – If not a secret mod, then based off of lack or reads and only small bits of efforts here and there, this is typical madge behavior D1 and I do believe Madge always tries a bit harder as scum. Due to indifference to the game at this point, lean town.

Wam - Null working on read

Somitomi Null working on read

Bop – During D1 was the most active scum hunter. They were adamant on the importance of Day 1 content and showed some frustration towards players with limited D1 content which shows consist with their playstyle. Bop’s been consistently engaging and re-processing their reads. I particularly like 2 full reads lists D1 adapting to updated conclusions. Town lean. I think most likely scum partner is tehbubblez. There was a couple interactions between them that flagged for me during the time I was tunneling more on tehbubblez and Bop’s second read list dropped tehbubblez down to one of scummiest players at the point when is seem sure that tehbubblez would be the first elim.


TehBubblez - Same opinion at end of D1, except only slight scum lean now. If they are scum don't feel like they deserve to get away with that playstlye, so am rather hopefuly they are frustrated town.

Boomfrog- D1 Boomfrog almost felt too eager to make pushes. This read may be based off of my poor memory of Boomfrog’s gameplay, but he seemed too quick to lead town. D2 my concern is if he’s scum that he is misleading us right to scum’s hands if it helps scum to know our flavor alignments. This may be something that we can resolve as true or fact later in the game, so I’m fine with holding on the D2 yeet, but leaning scum, but not leaning as far as I was end of D1. No one seems to fit in as a scum partner but I don’t believe Boomfrog can be an indy, so maybe that should be taken into consideration as well as a point in their favor.

Sabrar - Currently assuming full scum due to potential scum slip.

What is your read on me?

[Santygrass]

Well at least thats cleared up, i was thinking thats a very un sabrar mistake to make!

And what is your read on the whole sabrar and frog stuff?