Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[moody7277]

@Sabrar: So a little birdie told me that you said hi to Mak N1, and since it seems you'll be visiting two people N2 the birdie is a bit worried about what you'll say. Any comment?

[Sabrar]

Sabrar, Santy, read on Heury at the moment?

Current read is leaning heavily towards town. His content feels natural, he's self-aware, plus there is an additional issue that I do not want to go into but which can be deduced.

@Sabrar: So a little birdie told me that you said hi to Mak N1, and since it seems you'll be visiting two people N2 the birdie is a bit worried about what you'll say. Any comment?

I confirm I targeted Mak N1. I don't want to claim more at the moment but I'm willing to do so if it becomes necessary. Unfortunately you revealing this info might already give scum hints.

[Wam]

Well at least thats cleared up, i was thinking thats a very un sabrar mistake to make!

[boomfrog]

So I believe I can explain why that mistake happened, but in order to keep the game integrity intact as much as possible I think we should move on and not focus on mod-interactions.

I agree with this.

[boomfrog]

Great, so you aren't opposed. So let's do it. Since it's totally irrelevant, why don't you claim next?

I am from the Zestiria game, aligned with a Shepherd, not aligned with a Lord of Calamity.

Wonderful! @EGW: You've been awfully quiet about this mini-claim. You claim next.

And I was right about this too:

Some slight suspicion that his first jab at me was "Oh no, I'm scum again and have to hide from town!boomfrog AGAIN!" because I know he was sweating bullets in our last game together.

I could claim the same, not that any of this is relevant:

Ah, Boomfrog pretending not to hold a grudge so I won't go after him like in Animal Kingdom, very sus.

I tried so hard to stay objective. I think I succeeded, honestly maybe I overcompensated by giving you too much of a pass D1. I guess we will see in the end if I was right. If you are town, why did you never reevaluate when you pointed out you were reading me biasedly?

[boomfrog]

Heury's reads -

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Ahippo – has been very transparent about lack of strong reads and confusion. Also they don’t feel defensive when being questioned or accused which I feel is more natural for town. That coupled with the early role claim and transparency of how it would be used (random number generator). I am concerned with the lack of scum hunting. UPDATE: Since Sabrar confirmed receiving motivator action then I’m assuming at this point ahippo is cleared town (much more likely) or sabrar and ahippo are scum mates (much less likely). If Sabrar flips scum, ahippo is still likely town

EGW- Scum hunting and taking care to dissect others posts and follow up with plenty of questions. They are open to discussions and willing to adapt their reads. Flipping Mak their scummiest read D1 is evidence evolving suspicions and in general his reads all seem to be uninfluenced by other players. EGW was also quite cocky about his understanding of competing wagons and how helped get competing wagons and reads based off of it. Town. If EGW is scum, could be a less active scum partner not pushing against him such as Laserguy/Somitomi

JC - Will share in near future. Town lean

Makhaira – There was something in D1 that Mak said that had me learning town, but now I can’t find nor do I remember what it was. I feel like it was something along the lines of I recall Mak having a manipulative nature and this game seems considerably less manipulative. They have been structuring their reads in a way that gives the necessary content but isn’t ordered perhaps purposefully to make it more difficult for scum to understand the reads. I am slightly concerned that Mak is so widely town read but most everybody and maybe only EGW is seeing through a charade but lean town., Potential scum partner is Boomfrog. There was an interaction where Mak seemed back and forth and could be a strategic effort to manage a scum partner’s slot without making it obvious.

Madge – If not a secret mod, then based off of lack or reads and only small bits of efforts here and there, this is typical madge behavior D1 and I do believe Madge always tries a bit harder as scum. Due to indifference to the game at this point, lean town.

Wam - Null working on read

Somitomi Null working on read

Bop – During D1 was the most active scum hunter. They were adamant on the importance of Day 1 content and showed some frustration towards players with limited D1 content which shows consist with their playstyle. Bop’s been consistently engaging and re-processing their reads. I particularly like 2 full reads lists D1 adapting to updated conclusions. Town lean. I think most likely scum partner is tehbubblez. There was a couple interactions between them that flagged for me during the time I was tunneling more on tehbubblez and Bop’s second read list dropped tehbubblez down to one of scummiest players at the point when is seem sure that tehbubblez would be the first elim.


TehBubblez - Same opinion at end of D1, except only slight scum lean now. If they are scum don't feel like they deserve to get away with that playstlye, so am rather hopefuly they are frustrated town.

Boomfrog- D1 Boomfrog almost felt too eager to make pushes. This read may be based off of my poor memory of Boomfrog’s gameplay, but he seemed too quick to lead town. D2 my concern is if he’s scum that he is misleading us right to scum’s hands if it helps scum to know our flavor alignments. This may be something that we can resolve as true or fact later in the game, so I’m fine with holding on the D2 yeet, but leaning scum, but not leaning as far as I was end of D1. No one seems to fit in as a scum partner but I don’t believe Boomfrog can be an indy, so maybe that should be taken into consideration as well as a point in their favor.

Sabrar - Currently assuming full scum due to potential scum slip.

This is a really good reads list. Like, A) it's shows a very townie perspective sincerely trying to solve, especially the Makhaira read. But B) this skill in reading shown here is a huge improvement over the Heury I know from years ago. You've really grown man, I'm impressed.

With the Fake Claim conflict dismissed what's your updated read on Sabrar (and are there any other secondary updates to others?)

Why do you not find my point to Santy about theBubblez persuasive?

I like to push people D1 to see where others are wiling to follow, and I like to move around so I can get a feel for any connections or resistance on as many players as I can, with the balance of trying to make my pushes significant enough to be taken seriously. I do this every game that I'm not pulling some bizarre D1 stunt. (I do miss pulling D1 stunts though). Why do you find this pattern scummy? (Your D2 concern is valid, I respect the paranoia)

[EGW]

I am waiting on a response from Santy. I will not claim next.

[Sabrar]

If you are town, why did you never reevaluate when you pointed out you were reading me biasedly?

It's one thing to be self-aware of an issue, it's another to actually correct it. I seriously think that the way you reacted to my D1 sus is too jovial to come from a townie pov as there is no sign of even the slightest irritation.
D2 your claim simply seems to be too convenient. I think self-psychic has less potential value than you think (especially if you expected to be full copped), but we cannot really discuss it.

[boomfrog]

I am waiting on a response from Santy. I will not claim next.

@moody: Claim order plz.

[boomfrog]

If you are town, why did you never reevaluate when you pointed out you were reading me biasedly?

It's one thing to be self-aware of an issue, it's another to actually correct it. I seriously think that the way you reacted to my D1 sus is too jovial to come from a townie pov as there is no sign of even the slightest irritation.
D2 your claim simply seems to be too convenient. I think self-psychic has less potential value than you think (especially if you expected to be full copped), but we cannot really discuss it.

I literally was about to call you out for non susing me. And my other powers need pretty specific targeting to be useful.

[EGW]

Boomfrog, why didn't you question me Day one?

[boomfrog]

Why would I be irritated? I was literally delighted.

[boomfrog]

Boomfrog, why didn't you question me Day one?

Because I wanted to see you work without interference so I could evaluate you. And I was releaved to have someone else driving content generation so I could take a break.

[EGW]

Why do you not find my point to Santy about theBubblez persuasive?

What's persuasive about it?

[Sabrar]

Why would I be irritated? I was literally delighted.

I can only speak for myself, but I am always irritated when someone actually thinks I'm scum.

[Sabrar]

Haven't seen may responses on whether you want a full extension or the Monday I offered.

So if I don't see responses by tomorrow afternoon (EST) I'll assume you're using the full extension and set the deadline for Weds/early morning Thursday EST

I would like to have full extension.

[EGW]

Full extension please.

[moody7277]

I am waiting on a response from Santy. I will not claim next.

@moody: Claim order plz.

NB: probably contains people who have claimed informally. I think BF wants it in a consistent format for comparison purposes

Santy
EGW
Sabrar
Boomfrog
wam
ahippo
Bop
heury
Madge
Mak
JC
somi

[EGW]

Sure. I will claim after Santy responds to me.

[somitomi]

Doin my EGW homework, gonna post this in random bits and then catch up with the latest shenanigans:

Page 4: Hippo v Bop interaction

I don't really see anything here, but then I also greeted Sabrar with a warm vote. More likely to be some ancient xkcd culture than anything suspicious, based on this I'd say bop and ahippo are unlikely to be aligned. At least when I'm mafia I tread very carefully to not look like I'm answering questions for my buddy.

Hippo question to Moody

With all my future knowledge, asking moody that question is just another manifestation of ahippo focusing almost exclusively on the use of their power. I did wonder why moody was singled out in particular but then this was answered with "vibes".

Hippo claim

This all feels rather newbie to me and I'm inclined to think ahippo is being genuine when he says he's used to games with less 5D chess. I also don't think scum ahippo would in thread if claiming early was suspicious, so I'm gonna put ahippo in the probtown pile

Page 5: Sabrar question to Boom.

Not at all sure what I should see here yet.

Page 6: Laser Response to Boom vote on Laser.

I find this reactiona quite strange but I have no idea what this means. Maybe some context is lost on me, BoomFrog has said little about why he voted LaserGuy so asking about that would feel like a more natural response here. Noted

Page 7: Madge miller claim.

How very madge to claim miller in a single sentence at the very end of rambling about IRL stuff and D1 being a suck. Never change, madge.

Gonna take a little break here so all the Boom stuff is in the other post

[boomfrog]

Why would I be irritated? I was literally delighted.

I can only speak for myself, but I am always irritated when someone actually thinks I'm scum.

I hope you can imagine that I am different. You've had plenty of evidence in past games that I do not mind and often seek out a certain level of scumminess.

[boomfrog]

Why do you not find my point to Santy about theBubblez persuasive?

What's persuasive about it?

I pointed out the Santy why I think theBubblez is lock-town. I assume anyone else reading every post would also consider the evidence. Did you not find my point persuasive?

Also that reminds me:
@Santy Your response to my point was very noncommittal. Were you persuaded? Also, please claim your associations. (And I guess answer whatever EGW's question was too please.)

[Sabrar]

Okay, let's talk one final time about flavor-claiming.

Facts we know:

- there is at least 1 town player from Zestiria (bessie)
- there is at least 1 town player from Besteria (moody)
- there is at least 1 town player aligned with a Shepherd (technically not true because we don't have bessie's confirmation but this is the sample given by the mod so we can safely assume it)
- there is at least 1 town player aligned with a Lord of Calamity (moody)
- scum have fake claims

Now there are 2 main possibilities:

1. Scum has a fake claim that matches their true identity for considering the above aspects. In this case scum can safely claim the info in their role-pm, and a flavor cop will not be able to find a discrepancy.
2. Scum was purposefully given a fake claim where the above info do not match. In this case a flavor cop's result might be useful, unless scum does the necessary research to come up with a better fake claim on their own (or they are already familiar with the games and don't have to do the research). I argue that this scenario might be considered bastard, but even if we accept the premise that the fake claims are deliberately different in order to make flavor-cop useful, it can be potentially be circumvented.

Conclusions:
1. result of the flavor cop alone is not enough to distinguish town from scum as flavors are varied.
2. scum can probably safely claim their true flavor and be consistent with their actual character-claim in the future.

Summary: flavor cop is actually useless, except in the specific scenario where scum have purposefully bad fake claims and cannot come up with a better one on their own.

@Boomfrog, @Bop: please point out the parts of the analysis that you disagree with and explain why.

[madge]

I think a flavour cop shouldn't be useless because it's bad game design. Unsure which parts I therefore disagree with.

[Makhaira]

Taking off to fly back home now, will get caught up tonight, glad we got an extension I legit forgot we could even request one

This caught my eye hoping sab can answer before I land or around that time

I chose Psychic from among my options, but otherwise yes, your summery is correct.

I assumed this at first, but then reconsidered seeing how unlikely it was. You're telling us that from all the abilities at your disposal you thought that finding out what powers targeted you was the most beneficial use of your power?

do believe psychics EV increases with time or decreases?

Did boom claim his other joat powers? If so if someone can quote that for me that would be handy, thanks, def want to weigh his other choices