Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[EGW]

Im kinda crazy busy today and tomorrow but should have more time this weekend to put all my thoughts together after I do this research

I especially want your full reads list today, Mak. When you get the time.

[EGW]

Wam/Sabrar/Bubblez/Bop, these 4 I do want to look at closer today. Sabrar I don't want to consider for elim. Bubblez is still higher on my list for elim.

I really do not think Bubbles is scum. That is absolute town frustration. He rage quit the game. Also I just remembered about giving Somi a summary, I'll do that soon because I do want him to read some of Day 1.

[EGW]

I will, but I wanted to get some pointers on what seems significant to people, so I can be a little more focused than just randomly skipping through D1. I generally find that trying to re-read everything doesn't give me a lot of insight compared to the time I spend on it.

Please look at these from Day 1, draw your own conclusions, read Day 2, and please make a reads list.

Page 4: Hippo v Bop interaction; Hippo question to Moody.
Page 5: Sabrar question to Boom. Hippo claim.
Page 6: Laser Response to Boom vote on Laser.
Page 7: Madge miller claim.
Page 8: Boom vote on Heury.
Page 9: Wam vote on Fred. EGW response to LaserGuy.
Page 10: Sabrar reads list.
Page 11: Boom response to Sabrar "Good good, I was gettin worried."
Page 12: Boom vote on Bubbles post. Mak reads post.
Page 14: Laser suggestiong flavor mass claim. Bop reads list.

[EGW]

I'm tired, it's about to be 5AM, and I'm going to be busy getting Real ID. I'll be mobile. Good night for now.

[somitomi]

Unless you absolutely need to prove yourself because you are about to be voted out, it is unnecessary to get a confirmation as that will potentially help scum to decide who to block/kill tonight and doesn't provide us further information for the solve.

Also, that would just prove ahippo has a motivator power, but that doesn't necessarily confirm alignment, so this concern seems very misplaced

Lol and next page Mak is also saying hippo is locktown because of the claim. Glad to be vibing with the stumped town :hmmyes:

Moody is the stump, why do you think it's Mak?

As you can see I like to talk and yap a lot. wowee

That amused me a lot actually, when you subbed in for me

@moody: can we have more of your wisdom in the thread, o treestump?

do we think there's an indy who has something to do with the calamity/shepherd thing? like, visit all sheperds / kill all calamities / other?

just boomfrog asking everyone to claim theres (if they're not flavour indicative) struck me as odd

I guess that is a possibility. BoomFrog's stated motivation for the claim is rather strange too

I will, but I wanted to get some pointers on what seems significant to people, so I can be a little more focused than just randomly skipping through D1. I generally find that trying to re-read everything doesn't give me a lot of insight compared to the time I spend on it.

Please look at these from Day 1, draw your own conclusions, read Day 2, and please make a reads list.

Page 4: Hippo v Bop interaction; Hippo question to Moody.
Page 5: Sabrar question to Boom. Hippo claim.
Page 6: Laser Response to Boom vote on Laser.
Page 7: Madge miller claim.
Page 8: Boom vote on Heury.
Page 9: Wam vote on Fred. EGW response to LaserGuy.
Page 10: Sabrar reads list.
Page 11: Boom response to Sabrar "Good good, I was gettin worried."
Page 12: Boom vote on Bubbles post. Mak reads post.
Page 14: Laser suggestiong flavor mass claim. Bop reads list.

Thanks, will do

[Wam]

I'm struggling for time currently as.mentiioned up front. Will try and get a goodnpost in tonight.

[Sabrar]

Im kinda crazy busy today and tomorrow but should have more time this weekend to put all my thoughts together after I do this research

(BTW I'm actually going to be busy tonight with a school thing so no big catch up until at least tomorrow.

apologies i haven't had enough time for this game, things are easing up at work, but still pretty hectic so don't expect much for at least a wek sorz

I'm struggling for time currently as.mentiioned up front. Will try and get a goodnpost in tonight.

Several people are (or have been) busy IRL plus we have two replacements who need to catch up. It is possible that we will have enough discussion going on during the weekend, but with deadline being a bit earlier I would like you all to at least consider the need for extension.

Vote: deadline extension

[EGW]

Vote: deadline extension

[Wam]

Starting catch up

vote deadline extension

[Wam]

Why sabrar not others, I have a memory that Bessie has been good at reading sabrar before.

Wine at its finest but she failed to read me correctly in both PYP and Millerizer.

It is wine, but point taken.

I ignored somi as a possibility as a replacement it didn't feel like you would come in and go swinging for bessie. As for others I know I didn't kill bessie, boom I think would.keep.her around. Laser not sure about.

So who would I come in and go swinging for?

Having been scum.woth you recently I don't think you would.come in as scum replacement and start swinging at anyone

You would.go.for more.of a consensus building.

JC
Low content but that's normal and I like what is there.

What do you like about JC's content?

I liked the question her to you https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84470#p84470

The tone of this one felt townie for a reason I'm struggling to articulate. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84504#p84504

Throwing out gut reads here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=84904#p84904

That was pre my reads. Post then I like

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=85111#p85111 this is someone trying to solve

And poking here https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=85301#p85301

I don't like this https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=85361#p85361 has two aspects that are hinting at tmi

That's all the responses I believe I owe.

[Santygrass]

Lol and next page Mak is also saying hippo is locktown because of the claim. Glad to be vibing with the stumped town :hmmyes:

Moody is the stump, why do you think it's Mak?

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.

.

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LMAO . I had a huge Skill Issue moment, I apologize and will adjust accordingly. I think probably my brain saw stump , remembered Mak being one couple of games ago and just winged it or something.
I still think Mak is town, but I may be influenced by the flipped town perception I had when reading their post lol. Actually knowing this I think some things make more sense but we'll see

[EGW]

Santy, Bop already cleared up that Moody was the stump for you.

[Santygrass]

Vote: EGW

[Santygrass]

Santy, Bop already cleared up that Moody was the stump for you.

I didnt noticed , saw the ping from somi and sabrar and went to recheck just now

[EGW]

You responded to Bop but your reaction to Somi seems calculated. It would have been natural if you reacted that way to Bop.

[Santygrass]

You responded to Bop but your reaction to Somi seems calculated. It would have been natural if you reacted that way to Bop.

Dont you think I would've addressed it to Bop in the post I replied if I did notice it?
And regardless , its just dumb. Im not telling you should townread me for it, but trying to paint it as calculated with no evidence is just you trying to put me as scum on a super weak motive so /shrug

[Santygrass]

Like, Im on page 13 and reading how you think that Mak seriously coached hippo into claiming?? Like, you are a experienced mafia player right? You have played as mafia more than one time?

How often does it happen that early into D1 to scum to try to coach someone into claiming? Specially a motivator role? Like its sooo reachy I cant comprehend it. Like, is it common from Mak to do something of that style? I dont think Mak is a player that focuses much on mech from the couple games I read from him but maybe Im wrong here but idk .

I read someone say your style is more like, reaching a conclusion and then trying to explain everything from before and make it fit, which is what maybe is throwing me off because to me that is always more scum aligned / agenda pushing, rather than trying to solve a slot and trying to look at all angles

[Santygrass]

Hey Moody, do you have a night action? No need to specify faction or power. Simply, yes or no.

Let's talk about this. Why do you think Hippo made this post? Note the timing, this was after the handshake pressure.

Like, You have a motivator claim form hippo at this point.

ITS OBVIOUS why they made this question. They had their mech and night action usage in mind. Hippo themselves said it.
I do not vibe at all with the agenda you were pushing here

[EGW]

You misreading the Moody stump doesn't make sense and it seems like you are trying to get a town slip and you kept pushing it. I already have you as scum for Lasers actions and your reads lining up with his, showing you have no other options.

[Santygrass]

In my theory of Hippo + Mak,

How many times do I have to repeat myself? You start with a theory and interpret the facts to fit that theory. But the facts could also support another theory and you just fail to consider it.

If you can't see what I'm seeing here I think there is absolutely nothing else I can say to convince you. I'm dying on this hill.

Yep, I feel you don't understand my point at all.

What Sabrar said here pretty much. But still I think your theory of Mak coaching into mech that early into D1 into a claim is like , not nuanced at all. And in practice just almost never happens. So its very off putting to me

[Santygrass]

You misreading the Moody stump doesn't make sense and it seems like you are trying to get a town slip and you kept pushing it. I already have you as scum for Lasers actions and your reads lining up with his, showing you have no other options.

"doesnt make sense"

Its me misreading something .

Mak and Moody are players 1 and 3, start withy the same letter , and Mak was a stump before.
Im in this previous post I am saying its fair to not take it as a townslip, take it as NAI . But you are tripping very ahrd in trying to push it as something legit scummy lol. If Im scum I do not need to try to fake a townslip to be read as town .

[Santygrass]

He did not want to waste his power on someone without an ability. He did not think about the other consequences of his inquiry. moody welcomed him so he decided to be friendly and try to return the favor. Timing doesn't play a role.

In my theory of Hippo + Mak, Hippo is posting this sudden decision to distract from the pressure Mak was giving him. Do you note that, after that line of questioning, Mak didn't vote either of Bop or Hippo here? I can't say for sure if it would have happened because, Hippo posted this before that avenue could have been explored. That's why I believe he suddenly chose to ask Moody about an action.

So in your theory, Mak was coaching Hippo on how to get the heat off him.....that was coming from Mak??
Even the players who townread Hippo see this as a misplay, I cannot find a way entertain the idea that it was staged and somehow executed perfectly! And this is your main person to pursue?

I like this from Bop. So far from a skim I see EGW later started replying to Laser but dindt adress this :curtain: . Like this is just piling more on the whole theory EGW made just having 0 nuance behind it

[Santygrass]

Gut feelings right now...

Mak
Bessie
EGW
Wam
Moody
Madge
Bop
ahippo
Laserguy
TehBubblez
Boomfrog
Freddino
Sabrar



heuristically_alone - indy? Not sure why, but if we have an indy in this game I feel it's Heury.

This list *feels* from my catch up to be rather an unique/independent view or solve of the thread, specially Sabrar at the bottom . I would say is more likely town

[EGW]

I have already explained that I found Hippos actions to be his own and that was Mak adapting, and then later his actions had coaching involved in my theory.

[Santygrass]

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

God everybody’s reads are so different this close to deadline.

Tried to get rid of my neutral category but couldn't do it. Shortened it, at least.


Leaning Townie (Most to least)

Ahippo- God I want opinions and actual reads so bad.I can understand the instinct to not have him “locked in” as town long game, it’s honestly critical to be able to change your mind and not lock yourself in a “but I was right the first time” hole, but I could not disagree more on the people discussing eliminating him off the worry that he could be gambity scum instead of stressed townie. He’s very clearly reading town to me more than anyone, even if he's wasting the opportunity by having a single take so far in the game. I agree on Wam’s take that I can’t imagine scum faking this tone esp for D1.

Mak- As said before, they seem more consistent to prior town meta than not. I think mak drove content early, and even on the takes I disagreed with, I think they have led to a lot of good. I don’t want to get blinded with this take, but Mak seems clear town for me as well. I should read that Spirited Away game that was linked one of the later days but I’m not in any way worried abt it today.

Boomfrog: Engaged, direct often enough, asks specific questions and has given us opinions on most situations and two full reads this early? Absolutely. Not seeing the sus readings others are.

Sabrar-also engaged and direct in a way that reads town to me, and most people reading scum in this slot are using gut based off of preconceived notions of meta I don’t have.

Madge: I’m gonna lean miller claim as more town here. Madge could have easily gotten away with sliding by today I think, and instead she chose to get that out there. There wasn’t any pressure or anything prompting the claim, beyond Ahippo’s claim already being out there.



Neutral, could go either way:

Fred- I do want that reads list out, and I agree that there’s more promises than not. Fred has been defensive but more about his general playstyle which reads at worst neutral to me. I still think Fred is town coming off as sus to people, and scum are taking advantage of it. This could drop for me in the next in game day depending on his takes which would uproot my list badly.

JC: Has now posted a gut read list before the day is up, which I appreciate. Without reasons its going to be easy to slide out of if questioned, though. A slot that’s super up in the air either way for me.



Leaning Scummier (Least to Most)

Bessie-I love the daily bark and she’s very plugged in. People seem to think Bessie plays similarly as either alignment, active either way. Regardless of meta, I stand by what I said w the ahippo claim vote. Difference of opinion, I can respect hippo reading as sus but not being anyone’s D1 vote choice as we hear it running towards us. Not a bandwagon that’s likely to take off, though, so she's not going for an easy elim-which is what puts her slightly higher on this part of the list. Might be similar to mak where I’m just disagreeing in a way that is hard to read. Lazer has also said this is characteristic for Bessie, leaving a believed vote until switching if necessary for elim. Guess we’ll see.

EGW- Really similar read to Bessie-is engaged and direct(but wayyy fewer reads)As brought up above w the ahippo vote the“I've let scum pass by in situations like this,” is a reason to keep your guard up. It’s not a reason to yeet someone out D1 to avoid having been wrong. The “Mak and Hippo have been scheming to get themselves read highly” theory makes no sense to me and in my mind seeks to create doubt in some of the higher read players, which reads scummy. Pushing hippo and mak harder which is why they’re lower than Bessie, but neither seem easy bandwagons so not going for easy elims.

LazerGuy- You got the big full re-read bc I fucked up reading one of your posts twice in a row before. Regarding the “not making an honest attempt”, I earned that with my earlier literal misreads directed at you. Active, direct, willing to be confrontational. I do appreciate the context you’ve given on other people’s meta. Still disagree on the read that I was defending and buddying up w Fred-we’ve barely directly interacted. I'll admit a lot of my scumreads are based on whether they're pushing Fred, but it's not out of loyalty to him. I play by a "I don’t have to be involved in an exchange to butt in" regardless of if that reads as defending. Difference of opinion maybe.
Willingness to vote Moody helps you get higher up, but I still think having both Fred and JC as compromise votes are easy “at least I can push through something people would go for” in a way that reads scummy to me.

heuristically_alone: I haven’t changed much on this! I’m glad he’s more engaged and having more of a defense to pressure, but when that’s been explicitly called out after what still reads to me dodging confrontation beforehand it’s not as strong. (I still think that early FOS does read as an early scum move when anything feels safe.) If he’s not scum, then we’ve just got drastic play style differences I have to reconcile. On the other bandwagon that is likely, it just happens to be one of the ones I more agree with.

TehBubblez- I don’t think his initial defense was inherently suspicious, and I stand by that. I really do think the explanation during his unvote of mak was. Yes, being away makes your early vote seem like it has too much weight, but it reads like he’d have kept it at “this wasn’t a serious vote obviously” if he’d not been pressed on it. My opinion on him and heur changes based on if either flips anything, but I’m just gonna have to accept I read two completely incompatible people as varying levels of scum for now. That’s possible if this game ends up being multiball.

Wam: Has a lot more explicit info in recent reads which I like, but their offense for Fred reads to me as scum pushing someone who has come off as a target. As explained in my last posts, there's a lot of frustration from both sides on Fred and I think that's being seen as easy to capitalize on for today. Leading the charge, which is why they're so low.

Moody: Has given a reads list, but jumped on Fred wagon without reasoning in the post. Going for easy people for elim, but not leading the charge. Scumreads on other's aren't strong, and only had two in full read. Seems like seizing an opportunity, and avoiding scumreading most players to stay safe. The low level of scum reads are what puts moody lower than Wam for me.


I think personally I'd be happy voting any of my bottom four, knowing that in terms of "other people would join the vote" bubblez seems more likely than moody, moody seems more likely than heur, and heur is more likely than wam. I will be back more tonight if I have to change my vote, but I'm gonna go with a

Vote: Moody


Can't deny the Fred votes feel more "safe, easy elim" than honest opinion, and that colors a lot of this list for me.

Okay I like a lot the placements / elaborations and the overall view here. Going close to EoD and putting like some juicy people as scum and calling out the easy elim and stuff. This is such a good post Im flipping and putting Bop as town