Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Seven]

Vote count 1.8
1. Makhaira -
2. EGW -
3. Moody7277 -
4. Wam -
5. Sabrar -
6. ahippo - Bessie, EGW
7. TehBubblez - Makhaira, Boomfrog, heuristically_alone
8. Boomfrog - Sabrar
9. Bop -
10. Bessie -
11. Freddino18 - LaserGuy, Wam, Moody7277
12. JC_DADDY25 -
13. heuristically_alone - Bop, TehBubblez
14. Madge -
15. Laserguy -

Not voting: Freddino18, JC_DADDY25, Madge, ahippo

With 15 players alive it takes 8 to eliminate

The deadline is set for Sunday January 20th at 2 am EST.

[EGW]

Sometimes a coincidence is just a coincidence and Makhaira's focus on this detail feels out of place.

I actually agree with this. My first impression of Mak was strong town, however he seems town here, that is the important aspect here. My thoughts on this detail is that this is TMI from Mak.

This post is what 180'd my stance on Mak on my initial catch up. I've been burned by a scum mak that towned it up really hard, however this line:

So ahippp, I had your role in the last game we played here.

Is what tells me it's likely Mak coached Ahippo into claiming, to help smooth over the fumble from early game.

2. Somewhat related to that, I dislike rigid rules that are taken as universal truths. I can understand the immediate reaction of 'rolefish = scum' but that is a shortsighted view that doesn't really tries to understand where the question is coming from. Similarly 'why me, fry me' is also questionable as I believe a natural reaction from a certain type of player is righteous indignation at being suspected.

The bolded is the crux of why I have Sabrar as strong town.

Good reason for a compromise elim, but otherwise I don't think it's the best chance at scum. Just unhelpful. You mention being serious feeling Bubble's flips scum here. Elaborate on why this is.

I legitimately believe in the why me = fry me tell. Its a very self prez/scum mindset to just ask "why me" when someone targets them. If anything someone taking a stance against you should help you read the slot, a town player should relish the interaction and the discussion that will follow from someone taking a stance on one's slot. Obviously it isnt foolproof but I do think there is merit to it being a good rule of thumb scumtell. Its day one and frankly its the scummiest play ive seen thus far from any slot

This is compounded by the reaction going from just "why me" to doubling down and then OMGUS voting me. Sounds like bubblez didnt actually care at all "why" I voted for them, they just dont like the fact that Im voting for them period. Thats a scumtell imo. Also the slot has done nothing since

Why me fry me can probably be argued to be nothing more than an arbitrary schelling point and though I can see the argument I think its slightly better than that and I legit think the slot is worth continuing to pressure. Plus arbitrary schelling points, if we assume this uncharitable characterization, are kind of part and parcel to how D1s are normally played

The bolded is why I believe Mak is scum in a vacuum. He's intent on forcing a miselim based on a wack scumtell.

Im not joking its a decent tell, not gonna tunnel bubblez here but I think it warrants some pressure

Slot hasnt done anything since. I think this slot flips red, Im very serious

Why did you go from 'not tunneling, just pressure' to 'seriously this is scum'?

Also just for my own understanding: what is the expected outcome of a 'pressure' vote? Are you hoping that the slot will suddenly improve their content, do you expect a claim, are you looking to see who joins the wagon?

Another solid question from Sabrar that is looking at motive.

the fact that bubblez disappeared for so long after the exchange just made me feel more confident of it being a scumslot but I was def overselling my confidence to try to sell the wagon

Im hoping to pressure the slot to produce more content that I can use to better sort, AND im trying to see who is willing to vote there and who isn't

I think Mak's initial comment about 'bubbles flipping red' doesn't sound that he is that confident in it.

Makhaira: healthy paranoia and progression on multiple issues. Not too familiar with Mak's scum-game and don't have time now to dive into it, so it will have to do for now.

This is well within Mak's scumrange. So, you should take a hard look at your read on him now. Especially with your questioning towards him through this game. I think you are off track (regarding Mak), and I am trying to set you straight here.

[EGW]

Dang it. This is sincere. Bop is town. (or maaaybe he's scum who's already confident that there's another scum team, but probably town.)Unvote

This does not seem confident.

Also this seems like a sincerely townie thought process. Unvote Heury More details later.

I don't get a tone match here. It feels like he says this for the sake of it. This does not seem like he is convinced by that post.

Good good, I was getting worried. I was getting ready to call you out on your lack of suspicion for me.

This also doesn't sound believable to me.

In general, I believe Boomfrog to be doing very little. Rather it feels like he was backseating a bit, while posturing about wanting to ensure an elim. The only post I like was his explanation to me of him voting Heury.

1. my little Boomfrog avatar says that he would encourage working more closely with a perceived towncore, however he's not really trying to engage Makhaira, not even to discuss the focus on TehBubblez whom BoomFrog declared to be town very early and never brought up again.

I think this is very solid point on Boom not needing to sort Mak, nor actually come to a solid answer for a good elim.

Finally, I've also noted that Boom never felt the need to ask me any questions this game, which has been odd. I don't really see the same questioning that Sabrar has been doing.

[EGW]

Exactly. Don't try to influence me when I'm making my list.

I don't see this bravado from Fred in this game. Nor do I see an attempt to make a list. I only see active lurking.

[EGW]

On Ahippo, I still think my point remains that his adaption of Bop's wording was weird. I think it's very wrong to dismiss Ahippo as town simply from claim, and people should talk about his behavior. However, I'm willing to move on from him. I was already aware he was not likely to be elimmed, however I felt it was most important to show that, he is still suspicious and I want discussion on that.

[EGW]

Boomfrog -

My thoughts are that I think Bop has a point, that the "It was never serious" looks bad, however that's the only point going for for the Anti-Bubble camp. To me that seems like a newbie town blunder, and you have seen me push a newbie town off a cliff for such things, and you defended them hard. Now, on you mentioning that Bubblez doesn't relish interaction, I actually think Mak was being unfair to a new player with his style. We understand what he's doing, but Bubbles has no idea and it can feel annoying and feel like you are boxed in (as a newbie) without even a reason as to why there is pressure there.

[EGW]

Lazy reads

[Town] EGW > Sabrar > Laserguy > Bop > Heury > Madge > Bessie > JC > Tehbubblez | Moody, Wam| Fred > Boomfrog > Ahippo > Mak [Scum]

Unvote; Vote: Makhaira

[EGW]

Sabrar: You mention me having a conclusion and using evidence after the fact. I'm not sure how else to show you and others what I see. My style is sort of gut based, and I always struggle to try to convey that further. Hopefully with these quotes you can see what I'm seeing.

[EGW]

My wrist hurts from typing. This is what I get for playing Diablo 3 without a controller. Will be around, mobile for now.

[Sabrar]

@EGW: the point I'm trying to convey to you is that there is a difference between a post being scummy in itself because you expected something different from that player, and a post that can be interpreted in a negative way if you already assume that the other player is scum. I feel that you tend to jump ahead, connect some dots and come up with a solution, but that solution already depends on you being correct in your assumptions.
Prime example:

however this line:
Is what tells me it's likely Mak coached Ahippo into claiming, to help smooth over the fumble from early game.

If you start from the pov that Mak and ahippo are buddies then your interpretation makes total sense. However the post itself does not point to this conclusion on its own, as town!Mak would make the same post.

Same here:

The bolded is why I believe Mak is scum in a vacuum. He's intent on forcing a miselim based on a wack scumtell.

If Mak is scum, you are correct. If he's town he'd likely make the same type of push to move the game forward. The post itself is not a justification for Mak being scum but you can easily find a scum-motive if you're specifically looking for it.

Your solution also has to explain the whole game, not just a specific interaction. Mak coaching ahippo for claims is plausible for that part, however I don't think it explains well the 'handshake' incident. Have a look at it and tell me how do you think it evolved if your assumption is correct.

@bessie:

Sabrar – I feel Sabrar is off but am willing to chalk it up to his RL issues.

You know I don't like these types of reads because there is nothing tangible behind it. Could you point to specific instances where you think I'm off?

[EGW]

I think the handshake incident was not coached, but rather Hippo making that post independently, and Mak adapting on the fly. Which is why you note Mak feeling out of place with his focus on that detail. Scum mates hyperfocus on their mates mistakes when really, the rest of the town would not really notice, it just feels much worse as that alignment. So it causes you to act to cover it up so to speak. I considered if I could have been wrong on Hippo, but again, I still believe his explanation does not make sense, and if it doesn't make sense, it warrants a re-read.

[EGW]

Straight up got ninja'd and didn't notice.

Does this explanation make sense to you?

[EGW]

Hey Moody, do you have a night action? No need to specify faction or power. Simply, yes or no.

Let's talk about this. Why do you think Hippo made this post? Note the timing, this was after the handshake pressure.

[bessie]

@bessie:

Sabrar – I feel Sabrar is off but am willing to chalk it up to his RL issues.

You know I don't like these types of reads because there is nothing tangible behind it. Could you point to specific instances where you think I'm off?

Ok. I will try to explain what I have been pondering.

Thank you all. Readlist and vote are planned for Saturday, I don't mind being pinged in the meantime if you have questions but I won't be checking in as often.

This feels different to me, something about it or the way you said it. My brain knows that you have things on your mind, with the unexpected death of your colleague, which is why I didn’t want analyze you D1 the way I usually would but even my logical brain can’t always completely control how I feel.

Disclaimer: my reads make sense from my own pov, others have different experiences and/or expectations. Especially true when I am talking about what I expect from other players, I am probably equally bad or worse at anticipating what they are likely to do as they are when evaluating me.

I don’t remember you ever putting this kind of disclaimer on your content. You are usually confident that even if your conclusions are not correct, that the reasoning that led you to those conclusions is logical and will make sense to others.

Makhaira: healthy paranoia and progression on multiple issues. Not too familiar with Mak's scum-game and don't have time now to dive into it, so it will have to do for now.

I also think this is odd because I think you’ve played with Mak when he’s been scum. Unless you forgot that Mak is FrozenFlame and I don’t think you forget stuff.

[Sabrar]

Straight up got ninja'd and didn't notice.

Does this explanation make sense to you?

Yes. He typed up his post and hit submit before previewing as I believe most players do. I really can't understand why you find it suspicious. So in my interpretation this was not a mistake and wouldn't have caused Mak to jump on it.

Hey Moody, do you have a night action? No need to specify faction or power. Simply, yes or no.

Let's talk about this. Why do you think Hippo made this post? Note the timing, this was after the handshake pressure.

He did not want to waste his power on someone without an ability. He did not think about the other consequences of his inquiry. moody welcomed him so he decided to be friendly and try to return the favor. Timing doesn't play a role.

I don’t remember you ever putting this kind of disclaimer on your content. You are usually confident that even if your conclusions are not correct, that the reasoning that led you to those conclusions is logical and will make sense to others.

You can find a similar disclaimer here. I wanted to put it out there because I felt that this aspect of the game has been forgotten/ignored by some of the more experienced players, that we are all individuals and don't necessarily interpret the same signs in the same way.

I also think this is odd because I think you’ve played with Mak when he’s been scum. Unless you forgot that Mak is FrozenFlame and I don’t think you forget stuff.

I think I've talked about this before, but the reason I got known for having a perfect memory of old games is because in the past I used to reread those games in my spare time and relive those moments (usually when I was bored at work). So those were always fresh in my mind and I could reference them at a moment's notice.
With having to change sites twice since the original xkcd, I don't do that anymore. I had to click through roughly 30 links before I found the reference linked above, I knew I've expressed the same thought before and I was just hoping that I could find it on Smashboards.
I know that Mak is FrozenFlame, now that I have opened up Smashboards I found Spirited Away where he was scum, but that game was not on my mind yesterday and I would not be able to tell you anything about his play there.

[moody7277]

- are we just voting fred because he doesn't play the way you guys like to play because if we're voting people off for that then i'll opt out because i'll be next on the list

It might be a familiarity thing. In your case, we've gotten used to your "I play for fun, which might not be optimal" style, and you do actually contribute. Fred has been extremely obstinate about giving reads, which is an important measure of his mindstate in the game.

Going to give Wam a slight townlean and Moody a slight scumlean.

Well, I am third on the wagon.

[EGW]

Yes. He typed up his post and hit submit before previewing as I believe most players do. I really can't understand why you find it suspicious. So in my interpretation this was not a mistake and wouldn't have caused Mak to jump on it.

I'm just going to highlight the two quotes and let that explain it by underlining the phrases in question within this spoiler box.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Also ahippos return vote is more returning a handshake than anything substantial.

lol, I took the vote as like a handshake or a high five! It would be rude to not reciprocate! Random voting is how old mafia forum cohorts show affection, right?

[EGW]

He did not want to waste his power on someone without an ability. He did not think about the other consequences of his inquiry. moody welcomed him so he decided to be friendly and try to return the favor. Timing doesn't play a role.

In my theory of Hippo + Mak, Hippo is posting this sudden decision to distract from the pressure Mak was giving him. Do you note that, after that line of questioning, Mak didn't vote either of Bop or Hippo here? I can't say for sure if it would have happened because, Hippo posted this before that avenue could have been explored. That's why I believe he suddenly chose to ask Moody about an action.

[EGW]

If you can't see what I'm seeing here I think there is absolutely nothing else I can say to convince you. I'm dying on this hill.

[Sabrar]

I'm just going to highlight the two quotes and let that explain it by underlining the phrases in question within this spoiler box.

This doesn't explain anything to me. They used the same words by coincidence. You should realize that sometimes people begin to type a response, get distracted, finish their post a couple minutes later and it doesn't occur to them to refresh/preview before hitting submit.
I cannot fathom what you or Mak saw in this at all. I mean I understand why this might look sus if you squint really hard, but to use it as a basis for any kind of speculation is just absurd.

In my theory of Hippo + Mak,

How many times do I have to repeat myself? You start with a theory and interpret the facts to fit that theory. But the facts could also support another theory and you just fail to consider it.

If you can't see what I'm seeing here I think there is absolutely nothing else I can say to convince you. I'm dying on this hill.

Yep, I feel you don't understand my point at all.

[EGW]

This doesn't explain anything to me. They used the same words by coincidence.

That's where I will disagree, but I'll leave it at that. I'm curious, can you go more into your Mak read on me. Like break it down. How does your Post, Post, and Post I brought up factor into that read as well? I feel your read doesn't line up with the concerns you have had with Mak. How does it explain all that? I will be going to sleep now, but hopefully others can see what I am saying here and this is an important discussion to have because again, this is well within Mak's scum range. I have seen it. It literally burned me. Yet what is also odd that Boomfrog states he isn't sure if this is well within his range, but Boomfrog was there when Mak snowed us.

Makhaira: healthy paranoia and progression on multiple issues. Not too familiar with Mak's scum-game and don't have time now to dive into it, so it will have to do for now.

[EGW]

[EGW]

Moody, what's your take on all this?

[moody7277]

Moody, what's your take on all this?

Simplest explanation is that it's a coincidence. If there's something else that comes up later that supports a Mak/ahippo team, we can deal with it then. Since I'm loosely associated with the incident (both by starting it with the RV and being the one ahippo asked the question to), my impartiality may not be the best.

[Bop]

Responding to some quick things that stood out then gonna try to get updated reads (including takes on voting from here) after these posts as I know deadline is gonna hit like a train.

In the meantime I will

Unvote: heuristically_alone

bc I'm reading both heur and bubblez as scummish and don't know how to reconcile that. Doesn't mean I won't return after a quick skimming reread but I need to get my thoughts in order.

@EGW: I'm going to do a full reads list next, but I'd like to know your thoughts on theBubblez.

I like your response a lot. Bubbles seems like elim bait to me. I think town are more likely to post that they are going to mostly do nothing the whole phase nonchalantly, and the omgus vote feels annoyed newb town to me, definitely not survival focused. I also like unprompted content. I agree with you on Heury, but I don't think Bubbles is scum for it due to his previous posts.

Fred feels like the wayyyyyy more obvious "scum is trying to push a vote they think they're likely to get away with" for me bc people are doing it without as much conviction, and it's easier as they can capitalize on an air of frustration.(You'll note some of the most direct claims of frustration and calling Fred out to actually get reads are not the people voting- but I'm sure they seem like easy people to sway!) All three of those votes have got my attention.(Moody, Wam, Lazerguy)

This is more of a general statement and not directed specifically at TehBubblez, I sympathize with your feelings, but the glut of declarations at the start of every game about Day 1 makes me suspicious. And I will explain why. The majority of us start the game with no information, D1 haters are not alone in this. Most of us will fumble with our early reads, accuse or clear someone wrongly, and perhaps even post a solve without even realizing it. We will also say something that will be seized upon on D3 as proof of scumminess or towniness. And we will be accused of not being on the correct wagons. There’s a lot of big egos in this game (mine included) and we like to be right but sometimes we’re wrong (I would like to take a friendly jab here at Mak which I can do because he knows it’s out of love and not spite). I believe D1 is the most important day for content and if I make it to late game I often find what I need in D1 to help with the solve. So I encourage everyone to post what they think or feel and don’t worry about being wrong because you won’t be the only one that is wrong. Posting any content even if it is an unorganized spew is the best thing you can do to help town. I will be suspicious of anyone not posting and using “I hate and suck at D1” as an excuse.

Big agree on this-it can only help us to do and say as much as possible early on. Day one has the benefit of absolutely nobody can solve for the night, so takes people thought were "safe" can get obliterated come the morning with actions bringing information. This is by design and I'd argue a good thing.

And yes, god, it is easy to work yourself up into a take being a slam dunk and sticking to your guns.

Oh, and it's D1 so let's give us something to talk about: I'm a miller.

Oh. Has... anyone actually talked about this? Mak confirmed the claim was real a little ways down and tries to get more conversation going but it was otherwise dropped. I guess Bessie mentions it too a little later

My read is a miller claim is something you put in the evidence pile, but I think most people who read it as town or scum aren't going to act on it right away.

Noting that you missed my comments about scum!Madge that might be relevant to your thoughts here.

I did! I'll consider that, I appreciate you linking the meta of another game to go off of. I'll try to read a bit of that game in the meantime.

You have a suspiciously low bar for Fred being engaged. You also apparently never thought to ask why I was voting Fred.

It's the fact that your vote came directly after that got me. But I'll admit on re-reading your vote I must have assumed/projected your reasoning based on other people's comments at the time re: Freddino's engagement.

However as to the second point

Don't have super strong reasons for any of the below EGW group being mafia at this point, just haven't found enough evidence to convince me that they're Town.

Vote: Fred

I shouldn't have to ask why you've voted! If there's a reason, would it not behoove you to begin with it? I certainly don't feel better that you've got no stated reason at all.

Well I did, so please elaborate

Why do you think I did? I think we've played together enough by this point that you should have at least some idea of what I usually look for when I read people.

This is your current response when being directly asked. So should I ask or wait for you to make others gleam the answer based on past behavior?

So this has actually been a very interesting. As outset, I'll say my vote was like 50% reaction test 50% I genuinely didn't have anyone else I felt strongly about.

Like I said at the outset, I didn't really have a strong read on any of my bottom players, just sort of had them PoE. Fred is a hard player to read and is usually very low effort D1 so I wanted to see what happened if I poked him a bit. I honestly wasn't super optimistic about it because in our last game he was run up to like L-2 and didn't seem to really care at all. So Fred being kinda defensive about his (lack) of content and you and heury jumping to his defense, and Wam and Moody jumping to wagon him I feel is all very valuable.

I think that Fred's content at face value is a hard null. Thinking about it more, I think heury's reaction to the multiball comment is super townie--he sees that Fred has similar text in his role to his own and assumes it's Town. Your reaction I'm more skeptical of because you don't seem to have a good reason to defend Fred and seem to be more looking for an excuse to scumread me and given that I'm in the running for elimination today, it feels very calculated and pings me hard.

Going to give Wam a slight townlean and Moody a slight scumlean. Bop to scumlean. Heury can be Town.

I'll have to dissect the more marginal responses later if I have time.

Unrelated to my response, I'll apologize that my tone at the end was a bit too far for "we are playing this game to have fun with each other" in this to start.

"No good reason to defend" To be honest, you're correct in that this wasn't even defending Fred! I found your using "I didn't ask for your reasoning" as a negative while you continued to be cagey in your own reasoning suspicious! "Looking for an excuse to scumread" is funny. The point of the game is to gleam who's suspicious. I am looking for a reason bc I need to confirm whether I'm right so I'm not just going off of my gut.

And if Fred is a hard null, with others as scumleans-why has your vote remained when it's currently tied for top elim? Why not pursue the people you suspect?

I actually agree with this. My first impression of Mak was strong town, however he seems town here, that is the important aspect here. My thoughts on this detail is that this is TMI from Mak.

This post is what 180'd my stance on Mak on my initial catch up. I've been burned by a scum mak that towned it up really hard, however this line:

So ahippp, I had your role in the last game we played here.

Is what tells me it's likely Mak coached Ahippo into claiming, to help smooth over the fumble from early game.

He did not want to waste his power on someone without an ability. He did not think about the other consequences of his inquiry. moody welcomed him so he decided to be friendly and try to return the favor. Timing doesn't play a role.

In my theory of Hippo + Mak, Hippo is posting this sudden decision to distract from the pressure Mak was giving him. Do you note that, after that line of questioning, Mak didn't vote either of Bop or Hippo here? I can't say for sure if it would have happened because, Hippo posted this before that avenue could have been explored. That's why I believe he suddenly chose to ask Moody about an action.

So in your theory, Mak was coaching Hippo on how to get the heat off him.....that was coming from Mak??
Even the players who townread Hippo see this as a misplay, I cannot find a way entertain the idea that it was staged and somehow executed perfectly! And this is your main person to pursue?