Tales of Desolation mafia Day 2

[Freddino18]

Looks like the tag started botched due to the quote nesting limitation. Heury was not necessary there and there's an entire sub quote missing from Bessie

[Freddino18]

Nvm, it's botch jobs all around

[Freddino18]

Clean version:

If this is true, I would lean freddino towards less scummy

I don't understand the thinking here as we have heard literal zero from Fred otherwise. And they aren't even using a pfp from Zestiria

I never use a pfp from the franchise in question, and I try to stay away from being on-the-nose. For instance, if I was a flying laser ass pumpkin, I would avoid choosing Jack Skellington with the pumpkin on his head, but I might choose something like Chewbacca.

For me, it's reading my role, alignment, and flavor, and then saying "who does that remind me of?" and then selecting that as a Mood for the game. I love injecting that decision with a bit of mysticism during the games, as it gives me a starting point to engage with other players during the fluff period.

[EGW]

Don't you feel like you should provide your own reads first?

My reads are developing. You and I will talk reads soon. My concern is accuracy, rather than transparency. I have come out wrong many times while giving out full reads early. You have a problem with my handling of Hippo. This feels like a playstyle difference, rather than an alignment indicative thing. Ask me for one read and I'll give it to you in the mean time though.

[Sabrar]

Ask me for one read and I'll give it to you in the mean time though.

LaserGuy

[boomfrog]

a reads list

You said I voted Fred but I voted LaserGuy.
Why are bessie and Sabrar +1? The are both good players and they have both not actually posted anything of real substance.
Why is JC even +0.5 ? the guy has basically no content.

[heuristically_alone]

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Disclaimer: my reads make sense from my own pov, others have different experiences and/or expectations. Especially true when I am talking about what I expect from other players, I am probably equally bad or worse at anticipating what they are likely to do as they are when evaluating me.

ahippo: besides the claim there is not a lot of content. As I said before for me the way it played out feels genuine, we could debate endlessly about edge cases where it's coming from scum, but for now I feel that would be a waste of time. I would love to see some reads though, being safe from the elim should not be a reason to stop participating in the discussion.

bessie: her limited availability and chosen playstyle leads to her content being mostly reactionary and at a very consistent level, which means I don't have my hopes up of getting a good read based on her D1. I have no issues with the topics she chose to address, I see no big tells in either direction, my one concern is her keeping the vote on ahippo 'on principle' and 'nowhere to move to'. I know she is stubborn but this might be a case of scum!bessie trying too hard to emulate her townie game. Just a suspicion.

Boomfrog: he has been very eager to tell us that he is capable of producing the same content as either alignment. Probably a bit too eager. And I agree with that assessment, consequently I cannot point to any big townie pings coming from him. However I see some little pings in the other direction:
1. my little Boomfrog avatar says that he would encourage working more closely with a perceived towncore, however he's not really trying to engage Makhaira, not even to discuss the focus on TehBubblez whom BoomFrog declared to be town very early and never brought up again.
2.

@Boom Do you think Fred will post anything that will help town on day 1, and if you do... what makes you think so?

Just posting any legit content would help town at least get a read on their slot. So yes, I expect them to actually play the game D1. Is there a reason I shouldn't?

Boomfrog doesn't seem to understand the pov from which the question originates, to the point where the last question reads a bit like scum!BF trying to figure out what he did wrong (kinda similar to the whole 'why me' situation).

3. this is a weird one, but Boomfrog giving a different answer to Mak's question re bessie, and the way he phrased it could be scum!BF trying to incite rivalry.

Bop: new player to me, so no preconceived expectations. Doesn't seem to hold back, I am getting generic townie-vibes from certain phrases and posts, plus there is a well-thought out early read-list that I always appreciate.

EGW: apart from some initial comments his main content is the case on ahippo which - if EGW is town - is coming from a mindset I have struggled to combat many times in the past. It's about drawing a conclusion first and then interpreting all evidence in a way to fit that conclusion. Therefore I will need more from EGW to evaluate him, preferably opinion on other players outside ahippo.

Freddino: doesn't seem to understand the difference between post-count and content. Could be advised by an experienced scumbuddy to maintain the image, but I think the specific mentioning of the multiball theory points more to being town. Very much not a hard read.

heury: my impression is that his priorities are a bit different than the rest of the players, he seems to put having fun before actually trying to win and this is evident in many of his posts. I don't think it is necessarily AI, but in general I do get some townie vibes.

JC: very little content so far, what I saw felt right and natural.

LaserGuy: I find it a bit strange how he never reacted to me. While I did not specifically ask a question, those pings were there for people to engage with me. I also don't really like how 'accommodating' he was to Boomfrog's early vote. Finally I thought he would be more perceptive and interpret heury's content in the tone it was given. I like some of his other points but those are easy to fake.

madge: I know she has evolved over the years however the two 'big' posts of her reminded me very much of our games on the old forum where I used to defend her. However since LaserGuy picked up this role, I no longer have to. Claiming miller is in her scum-range now, but if I had to guess I'd still say she's town here.

Makhaira: healthy paranoia and progression on multiple issues. Not too familiar with Mak's scum-game and don't have time now to dive into it, so it will have to do for now.

moody: seems to be his usual self. And that's all I can say for now.

TehBubblez: I don't find the 'why me' to be a strong evidence. The explanation given is understandable, the later content is okay.

wam: I generally misread wam in the past. I think I figured out why. With that in mind and a specific in his D1 content so far, I think he is town here but I cannot be sure.

Town
ahippo
Makhaira
Bop
madge
wam
JC
moody
Freddino
heury
TehBubblez
EGW -- neutral
bessie
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Scum

Vote: Boomfrog

Feeling more comfortable with a town Sabrar. I don't think he's as good at faking his town meta as scum as he thinks he is and these are solid reads.

@sabrar what about tehbubblez's later content makes it just ok?

Doing early responses to directs, mostly.

Can you elaborate on why it's more suspicious?

It reads to me like he's already being careful to not seem to aggressive to get people voted off within the first few posts. "Seeming" being my issue.

Haha you think a day or two later is close to deadline? I'll gladly get you a calendar because you clearly don't have one.

A day or two can go fast. Without momentum early we easily end up at "oops, no votes". Also your response to my continued accusation, a read of you don't fully engage with accusations, is more of the same thing! Arguing semantics over the deadline bit but ignoring the rest.

Finding myself fully agreeing with these points

Potential scum buddy?

And tbh, the longer I think of it, heuristically_alone's early finger of suspicion is almost more suspicious to me than any of the voting-casting aspersions with less attachment than a vote but more oomph than musing.

So for now I'm gonna

Vote: heuristically_alone

Disclaimer:I am FAMOUSLY bad at D1 reads, so take this list with a grain of salt please!

It's almost hilarious the absolute stupidity of this analysis. As if anyone when rushing to make their first post of the game would care about time stamps, how soon after someone else they are posting or just copying the previous person. Could you be scum trying to hide your vote behind an OMGUS vote? If you want a more detailed explanation, I like to pick who my RVS vote will be for based off of who has posted already and for whatever reason after seeing your first post decided it to be you. However when I got caught up on reading, someone had already voted you and I'm not a fan of someone getting multiple votes in RVS phase so threw down FoS instead. I've done FoS at least 2 times as town on previous games for the same reason. Maybe it's a happy coincidence my random choice of vote/FoS ends up being scum.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

ahippo: haiku, reciprocal RV, clearing up term, explanation to Mak about the vote, response about matching language, asks me about night actions, no reads on people yet, claims power enhancement and is unconcerned about consequences. +0.5

Bessie: conf post reads have Sabrar, Madge, JC townie, wam and Mak sus, votes ahippo for rolefishing, also doesn't like him claiming, likes heury's setup spec, likes Bop making a reads list. +1

boomfrog: votes Bop due to rationalizing RV, dislikes ahippo claiming, asks about JC's analysis of "handshake", reads Bop as town, reads list with Mak and Sabrar also town, votes Fred, wants him to be helpful, asking LG about reads, discussion with heury, switches vote to him, wants early voting for info. +1

Bop: D1 hate, links Mak and Sabrar, sees Bubblez as new, votes heury in obligatory way, first half of "handshake" issue, says it was a coincidence, answers Bessie about needing to vote, doesn't like ahippo rolefishing, reads list with ahippo and Mak townie, wam and heury scummy. +0.5

EGW: Bubblez being unhelpful, asks Bop about heury being sus, analysis of the "handshake" issue, finds ahippo sus, disagrees with LG reading ahippo as town, votes ahippo, explains to Bop about ahippo, asks boomfrog about his vote. Due to his delayed entry, the "handshake" issue may be all he's had time to dive into. +0.5

Fred: comments about flavor blind, says he'll post more on the weekend, asks LG about his read of Fred, says he's posted a lot. -0.5

heury: foses Bubblez, responses about non-vote on Bubblez, boomfrog acting different, Mak focus on "handshake" townie, reads list with ahippo Fred town, BF and EGW scum, votes BF, doesn't like LG's reads, reason for reading EGW as scum blows up. -0.5, but would prefer to wait until D2

JC: wants to analyze "handshake" issue, asks BF about Fred, says info from analysis will be useful later more than now. +0.5

LG: RV EGW, wants to know why Bubblez thinks Mak's vote is justified, some town reads, asks ahippo about his rolefishing, "handshake" issue a coincidence, doesn't like that ahippo claimed Encourager, Madge town, accepting of BF's vote, asks heury about reads list, makes his own with ahippo Mak town, Fred Bessie scum, votes Fred, explains a couple other reads, asks Bop about his read of Fred. +1

Madge: likes fancy conf posts, lots of RL stuff, not taking part in last minute scramble, accepts ahippo's claim, everyone else neutral, setup spec, claims miller, Mak should not be seen as town. +1

Mak: likes Bop, RV Bubblez, likes Sabrar being excited, makes vote on Bubblez serious after their reaction, diversion into ego driven elims, diving into "handshake" issue, has ahippo as town after claim, setup spec, still wants Bubblez wagoned, in favor of early votes. +0.5

Sabrar: RV BF, approves of Mak's read, unvotes, disagrees with Mak's analysis of "handshake" issue, notes ahippo rolefishing, early town claiming exploitable, other rules more flexible. +1

TehBubblez: has played elsewhere, asks Mak about RV, thinks heury was wagoning, miffed with Mak for his vote, countervotes Mak, unvotes calling it not serious (seemed serious at the time). -0.5

wam: RV Sabrar, some responses, disagrees with Mak's analysis of "handshake" issue, votes heury off reads list, ahippo and Mak town, switches vote to Fred based on lack of content. +0.5

Votables: Fred, heury (but not today), TehBubblez, anyone else who's not +1

Liking this read lists. I find it very agreeable. Slight town lean.

Rereading EGW, and also leaning more strongly town. Won't share the read on D1 due to info I don't want scum to know at this time.

[heuristically_alone]

Updated reads list

Not scum
NA

Secret Mod
Madge

Scum (least to most)
heuristically_alone
ahippo
Freddino
Sabrar
EGW
Moody7277
Makhaira
Bessie
Wam
JC_DADDY25
Laserguy
Bop
TehBubblez
Boomfrog

[Sabrar]

@sabrar what about tehbubblez's later content makes it just ok?

He was self-aware about explaining his earlier content and then posted a bessie-style reaction that has a neutral baseline in my book. It's not spectacular, it has decent takes and nothing that I found immediately suspicious. It was okay.

[moody7277]

You said I voted Fred but I voted LaserGuy.

Apparently that was from where you were quoting LG which included his vote on Fred. My bad.

Why are bessie and Sabrar +1? The are both good players and they have both not actually posted anything of real substance.
Why is JC even +0.5 ? the guy has basically no content.

Since these are related, I'll lump them together. You remember that 0=neutral, so +0.5 and even +1 is still a slight lean town. I agree with you on Bessie's content so far, but this being the first weekend of the game that may improve before deadline. This post of JC's shows he's attempting to do some deep hunting, if he'd had more than "this will be informative in hindsight" he would have earned closer to a +1.5. As for Sabrar, I figure it will be D3 before I can have a glimmer of hope in catching him, should he survive so far.

[boomfrog]

I like this response. The fire is real. Heury is either town, or it's multiball and he sincerely thinks bubbles is on the other team.

[Potential scum buddy?

Are you referring to Bop+bubbles as the potential team?

Updated reads list

Not scum
NA

Secret Mod
Madge

Scum (least to most)
heuristically_alone
ahippo
Freddino
Sabrar
EGW
Moody7277
Makhaira
Bessie
Wam
JC_DADDY25
Laserguy
Bop
TehBubblez
Boomfrog

Why am I still on the bottom? LG and Bessie confirmed my early vote is very normal for town!boom. Your seem pretty convinced bubbles is scum, why do I rank even lower?

[boomfrog]

Rereading EGW, and also leaning more strongly town. Won't share the read on D1 due to info I don't want scum to know at this time.

Also this seems like a sincerely townie thought process.

Unvote Heury

More details later.

[boomfrog]

You said I voted Fred but I voted LaserGuy.

Apparently that was from where you were quoting LG which included his vote on Fred. My bad.

Why are bessie and Sabrar +1? The are both good players and they have both not actually posted anything of real substance.
Why is JC even +0.5 ? the guy has basically no content.

Since these are related, I'll lump them together. You remember that 0=neutral, so +0.5 and even +1 is still a slight lean town. I agree with you on Bessie's content so far, but this being the first weekend of the game that may improve before deadline. This post of JC's shows he's attempting to do some deep hunting, if he'd had more than "this will be informative in hindsight" he would have earned closer to a +1.5. As for Sabrar, I figure it will be D3 before I can have a glimmer of hope in catching him, should he survive so far.

Why does Bessie's hoped for future content make her a +1 now? If Sabrar is "I have no idea until D3' why isn't he at 0?

For JC I see what you are saying. Although that reminds me that I let that thread drop.

[heuristically_alone]

Why am I still on the bottom? LG and Bessie confirmed my early vote is very normal for town!boom. Your seem pretty convinced bubbles is scum, why do I rank even lower?
[/quote]
I may have been incorrect, but I still couldn't shake the feeling that something felt off. And Sabrar's read of you also resonated. That mixed with I don't completely trust myself that my fos just happened to hit scum at the beginning. Id happily vote either of you at this point.

[boomfrog]

For JC I see what you are saying. Although that reminds me that I let that thread drop.

Note for others: On reread I see why I dropped it, it seems sincere but shallow. I'm not impressed but I can see why he earned a +0.5

[moody7277]

Why does Bessie's hoped for future content make her a +1 now? If Sabrar is "I have no idea until D3' why isn't he at 0?

With regards to Bessie, I got a very strong data point in the Dancers game in that scum!bessie didn't post reads for a couple of game days, so her putting up her conf post reads is most of the +1 right now. Further content from her will modify that, of course. The obvious rebuttal is that since she didn't get to do one last game, that post was just pent up demand.

On Sabrar, is it that you are worried me having him at +1 now would bias my read later if/when I get surer crumbs? +2 is about the lower limit for towncore, so I'm not trusting anyone just yet.

[EGW]

LaserGuy

Slight town. Good questioning, solid observation, and caution I expect from town (non-informed). I note a lack of confidence as I expect from him, however I do note he said he hadn't found anything that he would believe strongly as a scum read, but rather that he is using process of elimination instead at that point. This is why I just have him as slight town. Post; Post; Post;

[EGW]

More details later.

When you give those details I want to know why you voted Heury in the first place.

[boomfrog]

Boomfrog: he has been very eager to tell us that he is capable of producing the same content as either alignment. Probably a bit too eager. And I agree with that assessment, consequently I cannot point to any big townie pings coming from him. However I see some little pings in the other direction:
1. my little Boomfrog avatar says that he would encourage working more closely with a perceived towncore, however he's not really trying to engage Makhaira, not even to discuss the focus on TehBubblez whom BoomFrog declared to be town very early and never brought up again.
2.

@Boom Do you think Fred will post anything that will help town on day 1, and if you do... what makes you think so?

Just posting any legit content would help town at least get a read on their slot. So yes, I expect them to actually play the game D1. Is there a reason I shouldn't?

Boomfrog doesn't seem to understand the pov from which the question originates, to the point where the last question reads a bit like scum!BF trying to figure out what he did wrong (kinda similar to the whole 'why me' situation).

3. this is a weird one, but Boomfrog giving a different answer to Mak's question re bessie, and the way he phrased it could be scum!BF trying to incite rivalry.

Good good, I was getting worried. I was getting ready to call you out on your lack of suspicion for me. For the record, I haven't been pushing Makhaira off theBubblexz because as time went on Mak's point became more and more legit as bubblez slid farther and farther down my mental reads list. #2 is a tiny bit of righteous indignation at being pushed to not push someone for content. #3 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Anything I say would only be wine.

Freddino: doesn't seem to understand the difference between post-count and content. Could be advised by an experienced scumbuddy to maintain the image, but I think the specific mentioning of the multiball theory points more to being town. Very much not a hard read.

...

Town
ahippo
Makhaira
Bop
madge
wam
JC
moody
Freddino
heury
TehBubblez
EGW -- neutral
bessie
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Scum

I mentally didn't evaluate that post since I thought it was cheating, but I guess we are including it. So on reread, I take it your position is that it's evidence he sincerely was quoting his own town PM? I agree with that. In that case, why is Fred so low on the list when they are "an easy read"? They seem like they should be higher than wam based on what you've described.

LaserGuy: I find it a bit strange how he never reacted to me. While I did not specifically ask a question, those pings were there for people to engage with me. I also don't really like how 'accommodating' he was to Boomfrog's early vote. Finally I thought he would be more perceptive and interpret heury's content in the tone it was given. I like some of his other points but those are easy to fake.

Do you not like his Madge take? That seemed sincere. I was also surprised that he misinterpreted Heury so significantly, but I take that as evidence of low effort, not evidence of alignment.

[LaserGuy]

Very light mostly phone posts from me for this (and most other) weekends. Will get to the stuffed addressed to me when I have time.

[boomfrog]

More details later.

When you give those details I want to know why you voted Heury in the first place.

Yep, I've switched to laptop and that's the next big post planned, and a new reads list then I'm going to try to maintain balance and not spend too much more time on mafia today.

[Sabrar]

In that case, why is Fred so low on the list when they are "an easy read"? They seem like they should be higher than wam based on what you've described.

Hard = strong in this case, my bad if it wasn't clear. 'Not a hard read' means I am not committed to it.

Do you not like his Madge take? That seemed sincere.

I defended madge super-hard as scum in Crossover, so that take falls into the 'easily faked' category for me.

[boomfrog]

Unvote LG; Vote Heury

Can you elaborate on this?

For the record, my "1 lie" was the vote for Heury. When I voted the logic was based on PoE and his FoS instead of vote is slightly scummy. But adjusting for the "Heury always feels scummy D1" factor I know he is well within his town range and probably town. But I voted anyway because I didn't have a better lead and I wanted to test the waters. I theorized that scum Heury would be more cautious about directly butting heads with me and it would be interesting to see who went along. Heury is often erratic and ends up coming off as scummy so he makes a good target for scum to push on, so I wanted to keep my vote there longer, making him seem like a legitimate target but I posted the "1 lie" post as a bread crumb that this was a mini-gambit. I think it's time to move on, but I will be examining theBubblez to see if I think they're scum hopping on a wagon.

@EGW: I'm going to do a full reads list next, but I'd like to know your thoughts on theBubblez.

[EGW]

@EGW: I'm going to do a full reads list next, but I'd like to know your thoughts on theBubblez.

I like your response a lot. Bubbles seems like elim bait to me. I think town are more likely to post that they are going to mostly do nothing the whole phase nonchalantly, and the omgus vote feels annoyed newb town to me, definitely not survival focused. I also like unprompted content. I agree with you on Heury, but I don't think Bubbles is scum for it due to his previous posts.

[EGW]

Clarification: I also like the unprompted content.