Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@Jimbob, no town cop is a big gamble for scum patzer to pull.

Somewhat: she might have thought she had no other option (I doubt it though). It could also be mafia!patzer claiming hoping to draw out the real town!cop (assuming there is one), which whislt it wouldn't save her, would at least give mafia a chance to deal with said cop.

[Wam]

@Jimbob, no town cop is a big gamble for scum patzer to pull.

Somewhat: she might have thought she had no other option (I doubt it though). It could also be mafia!patzer claiming hoping to draw out the real town!cop (assuming there is one), which whislt it wouldn't save her, would at least give mafia a chance to deal with said cop.

I can see the 2nd part being a plan. It does in my mind rest on patzer not being buddies with huery. With patzer's rustiness I think it would be suggested and agreed night 1 with a buddy in the case of mafia patzer.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@Jimbob, no town cop is a big gamble for scum patzer to pull.

Somewhat: she might have thought she had no other option (I doubt it though). It could also be mafia!patzer claiming hoping to draw out the real town!cop (assuming there is one), which whislt it wouldn't save her, would at least give mafia a chance to deal with said cop.

I can see the 2nd part being a plan. It does in my mind rest on patzer not being buddies with huery. With patzer's rustiness I think it would be suggested and agreed night 1 with a buddy in the case of mafia patzer.

Agreed.

To be clear, I still think any true town!cop should counter-claim if they think patzer is lying (I say that, because there's always an outside possibility of two cops), as I think it's better to have a likely confirmed town (albeit likely soon to die) cop, with useful results, than a lying one making up results.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

EBWOP: Plus in that case, we'd have a confirmed scum (from one of two players, likely patzer).

[moody7277]

*grumbles about 2 pages overnight*

--patzer claiming cop is interesting, especially as has been pointed out she's claiming it in a way that is safe for mafia. Lack of counterclaim is in her favor.

--not sure how some of you are distinguishing cult or survivor slots when neither of them (currently) have any teammates they're working off of

--I'm a bit desperate for flips, but Zen's putting out good content so if she did sub in for scum!huery I feel confident we'll get back to her later

unvote

Vote: Snide Sniper

[jimbobmacdoodle]

--patzer claiming cop is interesting, especially as has been pointed out she's claiming it in a way that is safe for mafia. Lack of counterclaim is in her favor.

There's still time for a counter-claim, given that half the players haven't seen patzer's claim yet, at a guess.

--not sure how some of you are distinguishing cult or survivor slots when neither of them (currently) have any teammates they're working off of

There's more than just buddy analysis to go off-of. For example, assume we think that Seven isn't mafia for a moment, if we think they're scum, then they must be Survivor, or possibly rezzed cult member. Also, their resurrection ability fits a Survivor flavour, and could be included to prevent an unlucky Survivor getting hit by a random Mafia kill.

Vote: Snide Sniper

Care to provide an updated read here?

[moody7277]

--not sure how some of you are distinguishing cult or survivor slots when neither of them (currently) have any teammates they're working off of

There's more than just buddy analysis to go off-of. For example, assume we think that Seven isn't mafia for a moment, if we think they're scum, then they must be Survivor, or possibly rezzed cult member. Also, their resurrection ability fits a Survivor flavour, and could be included to prevent an unlucky Survivor getting hit by a random Mafia kill.

Okay on the cult possibility as we only get number updates on them at dawn. Your point about the survivor getting another chance makes sense given how kooky this game was advertised.

Vote: Snide Sniper

Care to provide an updated read here?

Post by post incoming.

[moody7277]

Snide Sniper

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

post 1: resume
post 2: asking about jimbob
post 3: question about cult
post 4: asking jimbob about his vote for SS

This was the start of jimbob's gambit

post 5: culture difference in the mafia SS is used to
post 6: partial reads list with LG bessie town, bf patzer scum. doesn't like patzer's read of heury

First meaningful content

post 7: fluff
post 8: reveal of jimbob's gambit, town to scum list LG wam town, heury patzer scum, others with "boring" reads

This is where my first reads post had him at -0.5, mostly due to the lack of content

post 9: vote for heury, asks LG about his huery read

D2
post 10: rez a night action, mafia unrecruitable
post 11: response about his cult spec
post 12: response about his night rez spec
post 13: reply to boomfrog about his "scum gambit" spec from post 6, reiterates patzer's weak heury read while juxtaposing his read getting stronger with time. TS list with LG jimbob town, patzer heury scum

Basically he says he had no idea about what "scum gambit" meant to begin with. Cynical view is that it was originally a smear to act as a place to start making boomfrog votable

post 14: reply to LG and bessie about heury read, last read before vote was what made heury look scummy enough to vote, no further info on somi
post 15: post hoc reasoning for huery vote.
post 16: response about comment re flipping heury. rather fuzzy
post 17: fluff
post 18: asking Zen about her role, focus on claimed phoenix part
post 19: answering patzer about cult
post 20: fluff

Only in depth look was on a post hoc look at the D1 elim. Other content is really superficial with no attempt at trying to expand his neutral reads. Nothing overtly scummy, but he's not being all that helpful either. Somewhere between 0 and -1.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Somewhere between 0 and -1.

So you're saying that aside from possibly Seven, the scummiest read you now have is barely below the neutral line?

[LaserGuy]

Suzaku would have flipped then still. The rules say a person flips when they can no longer be resurrected.

Interesting, thanks for that info. It helps.

Can you acknowledge that there are 11 players?

...yes? Well, ten now

Also, are you going to claim?

Guess I'll have to.

I'm a cop. LaserGuy is not mafia. That's all the information I have- I don't get info on cult/survivor status.

Hopefully this info can help later on in the game if nothing else.

Can you tell us (paraphrase) a bit of the flavor of your role? What character are you?

I'm inclined to give mafia first refusal to shoot patzer in this case.

My vote is on The Snide Sniper.

More later. I should be around at deadline.

[moody7277]

Somewhere between 0 and -1.

So you're saying that aside from possibly Seven, the scummiest read you now have is barely below the neutral line?

Cynical view isn't any happier with me than you are about it, although I am not 100% convinced about patzer either.

[patzer]

Suzaku would have flipped then still. The rules say a person flips when they can no longer be resurrected.

Interesting, thanks for that info. It helps.

Can you acknowledge that there are 11 players?

...yes? Well, ten now

Also, are you going to claim?

Guess I'll have to.

I'm a cop. LaserGuy is not mafia. That's all the information I have- I don't get info on cult/survivor status.

Hopefully this info can help later on in the game if nothing else.

Can you tell us (paraphrase) a bit of the flavor of your role? What character are you?

I'm inclined to give mafia first refusal to shoot patzer in this case.

My vote is on The Snide Sniper.

More later. I should be around at deadline.

I’d honestly rather not give flavor info unless I have to- every bit of info I give just increases the chance of me being killed tonight.

Why don’t you want to yeet Seven?

[patzer]

Really struggling to see the argument for a Snide Sniper yeet when he’s barely got any strong signs against him, whilst Seven does have quite a few suspicious signs and would give us an actual flip.

[Wam]

@patzer why would flavour make you more likely to be night killed than being a mafia/not mafia cop?

[patzer]

Ultimately my main chance for survival tonight is if the mafia think town will yeet me tomorrow if they don’t kill me tonight. The more evidence there is for my claim, the less likely the town will yeet me tomorrow, and thus the more chance the mafia will kill me tonight.

[Wam]

Ultimately my main chance for survival tonight is if the mafia think town will yeet me tomorrow if they don’t kill me tonight. The more evidence there is for my claim, the less likely the town will yeet me tomorrow, and thus the more chance the mafia will kill me tonight.

This is going to sound harsh but assuming your telling the truth with your claim, forcing the mafia to kill you is probably a net gain for town.

[boomfrog]

Errg. Fuck me for being so indecisive I guess. patzer is either a very experienced player pulling a ruse from D1 or is genuinely bad at stringing together deductive reasoning. (Sorry patzer). Even when she is trying to be logical, in a single post she can't keep things straight. Her having inconsistent logic is not a scum tell.

She's been struggling from D1, and says so in her 3rd post:

IRL stuff to an extent, though be honest, this game is way harder than I'd remembered it to be, so I've tried to read through everything in detail before commenting in case I miss stuff. That's why I haven't been more active yet.

Thank you for providing that rough game summary though; it does help.

Yes, getting details wrong long term is a sign of messing up the double-think of being scum. But she's messing up details mid post as well, that's not scum-indicative. She's either faking it or genuinely confused, and I don't think she is faking it.

Also, her OMGUS on JimBob is townie righteousness. If she's advanced enough to be faking confusion she would be advanced enough to not OMGUS as scum.

FOS everyone who's only point against her was inconsistent logic, which I think is JimBob, LaserGuy, moody? Actually, I just searched and very few people actually voted for patzer despite the seeming forgone conclusion that that is where we were moving the elim toDay... I can only find JimBob and Seven voting. (Bessie had a different and good reason to vote patzer).

Actually, moody's entire reason for disliking patzer's slot is regurgitation of other people's grumblings. None of this is actually scummy, just "patzer is playing poorly".

patzer: superficial guess at heury rez, placefiller TS list, responses to jimbob re her cases, partial reads distracted by technical issues, "confused" by jimbob's pressure, slightly into OMGUS territory.

Also, moody has given me way too much benefit of the doubt this game. His opening RVS vote was disengaged with ASAP with no actual reason, which gives me the feeling that he wanted to limit the interaction. He's just bouncing from easy target to easy target without taking any hard looks at the more experienced players.

Vote: moody

[boomfrog]

Why do you think somi in particular is cult?

Mainly because I think if Wam is scum, Sniper is his partner based on these:

viewtopic.php?p=7200#p7200 (rule of 3)
viewtopic.php?p=7202#p7202 (something about this doesn't fit together right to me)

This is bizarro logic. That second post you linked:

I'm getting vibes of a newbie scum [TSS] trying to make a reads list without showing TMI.

This never comes from a scum partner wam calling out his newbie buddy D1. There's less then 1% chance they are mafia buddies.

[Seven]

Why do you think somi in particular is cult?

Mainly because I think if Wam is scum, Sniper is his partner based on these:

viewtopic.php?p=7200#p7200 (rule of 3)
viewtopic.php?p=7202#p7202 (something about this doesn't fit together right to me)

This is bizarro logic. That second post you linked:

I'm getting vibes of a newbie scum [TSS] trying to make a reads list without showing TMI.

This never comes from a scum partner wam calling out his newbie buddy D1. There's less then 1% chance they are mafia buddies.

Wow, I completely disagree. I see Wam as easily throwing his partner under the bus when directly questioned about it (as he was).

[Seven]

Somi is active lurking.

Ninja edit @wam: I think it's too on the nose, especially because someone had mentioned that as a possibility before, yet she continued doing it.

Well, suddenly stopping when it's pointed out would've been a bit of a smoking gun, although taking refuge in audacity isn't something I'd expect from a player who's a little rusty. Seems more like a Boomfrog move.

Can you, in detail, walked through how this would have been condemning.

Wow, a bessie-jimbob team is... kinda out there.

And why is that?

This is just fake content.

@Boomfrog, thoughts?

[boomfrog]

Yeah, somi is super active lurking. I might be convinced to move there. What are your thoughts about moody?

[LaserGuy]

I’d honestly rather not give flavor info unless I have to- every bit of info I give just increases the chance of me being killed tonight.

Why don’t you want to yeet Seven?

I've talked about this before. Unless Seven is exactly mafia (which I'm not convinced of), it's a fairly low-impact flip that doesn't give us much to work with going forward. If Seven is survivor (fairly likely, IMHO), then I don't have a problem with keeping him around for a little while yet and focus on more threatening targets.

I don't think your flavor is going to make any difference to your survival overnight.

[boomfrog]

Mainly because I think if Wam is scum, Sniper is his partner based on these:

viewtopic.php?p=7200#p7200 (rule of 3)
viewtopic.php?p=7202#p7202 (something about this doesn't fit together right to me)

This is bizarro logic. That second post you linked:

I'm getting vibes of a newbie scum [TSS] trying to make a reads list without showing TMI.

This never comes from a scum partner wam calling out his newbie buddy D1. There's less then 1% chance they are mafia buddies.

Wow, I completely disagree. I see Wam as easily throwing his partner under the bus when directly questioned about it (as he was).

No dog. wam posted this before being pressured:

Heury is more active in this game. Not liking the recent content though.

[Seven]

Yeah, somi is super active lurking. I might be convinced to move there. What are your thoughts about moody?

He doesn't feel guilty to me when pressured. In comparison to Werewolf on Wallstreet where he collapsed and threw in the towel once I called him out. I remember him deflating in Crossover as well. Here he is just keep on keeping on.

[Seven]

No dog. wam posted this before being pressured:

I don't get it?