Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[Seven]

Me thinks Pat has anti-recruitment/conversion as a part of her role, and also that she is the survivor. On my way out the door, will reply to other stuff later tonight.

[patzer]

@patzer: viewtopic.php?p=8321&sid=08e68c4b558fad ... 15d3#p8321

Please answer. These question may seem superfluous but they are important for me to understand your mental state.

I hadn't recalled you saying that before- thank you. This post you'd linked to

Unlikely, if the cult could recruit by resurrection then I'm sure they would have picked Suzaku to pretend their rez is townie. That would be a cool mechanic for a cult though to only rez eliminated people. Actually, that's a little too perfect for this game. Maybe they have to target at night but it takes effect at noon?

is a very interesting question though.
If there is a cult that can resurrect by conversion, why didn't they resurrect Suzaku?

That is actually a pretty good argument. heury was the scummiest by far of the two, so if the resurrection was done by someone... Suzaku was the obvious option. Town, cult, or mafia.

- Why heury?
1) It was an auto-revival after all (phoenix claim). Doesn't absolve Seven of suspicion but would at least provide an explanation. Would not rule out the phoenix being the survivor; could also be mafia; less likely to be cult given cult totals but possible.

-not possible) heury was revived as a decoy. This possibility is gone because if Seven is town, the phoenix claim is correct.

2) Mafia revived mafia
3) heury, rather than suzaku, was resurrected as a decoy to confuse us.

This complicates things...

[boomfrog]

1) It was an auto-revival after all (phoenix claim). Doesn't absolve Seven of suspicion but would at least provide an explanation. Would not rule out the phoenix being the survivor; could also be mafia; less likely to be cult given cult totals but possible.

-not possible) heury was revived as a decoy. This possibility is gone because if Seven is town, the phoenix claim is correct.

2) Mafia revived mafia
3) heury, rather than suzaku, was resurrected as a decoy to confuse us.

Emphasis added by me (apparently we can't do color anymore?). Are you... having trouble keeping your thoughts straight? This is not the first time you've contradicted yourself in a single post. Do you frequently edit your posts as you write them and rethink them?

[Wam]

Sorry been a long day and my brain is mush. Will be back tomorrow!

[patzer]

Emphasis added by me (apparently we can't do color anymore?). Are you... having trouble keeping your thoughts straight? This is not the first time you've contradicted yourself in a single post. Do you frequently edit your posts as you write them and rethink them?

Oh my god you’re right
I didn’t edit the post, I just forgot I’d worked out the decoy hypothesis couldn’t happen by the time I got down to line 3
I guess I’ll need to reread everything I write before posting in future :/

Alright so I think I can say decoy hypothesis is impossible if Seven is still town, and unlikely but not impossible if they were town but got recruited to cult on resurrection.

[LaserGuy]

Reads:

bessie:

I usually end up reading bessie more on tone than anything else. A couple of her early posts here and here pinged as Town to me and overall her engagement and interest levels are more or less what I expect from her Town play. She and I have had similar vibes on a variety of issues and for the most part I like where her head is at. Town lean.

I spend some time thinking about her discussion with somitomi (e.g. here, but several other posts as well) and what exactly bessie was getting at here since I didn't really follow where bessie's line of questioning was leading. Looking back, I think what originally pinged bessie was probably actually somi's phrasing "Having nothing but townreads now makes me feel like he's trying extra hard to avoid hinting at his mate", which suggests somi is putting heury in a specific faction rather than just general scum and I think bessie was maybe trying to dig around obliquely and see if somi would slip something. My feeling is that he didn't as his confusion seems genuine. I think this discussion is probably null for bessie as she picks fights with somi almost every game regardless of their respective alignments.


BoomFrog:

BoomFrog has been me pretty solid townie vibes for most of the game. I like the pressure on patzer and the early pressure on heury/Seven/TSS and most of his thoughts have been pretty sensible to me.

Noting that BoomFrog was pushing other players to yeet heury today. While I understand the argument for it, I think ultimately this play benefits scum more than town and am a little suspicious of BoomFrog for suggesting it (as well as jimbob, moody, wam and patzer for actually voting for it), but not enough that it actually effects my overall evaluation of him. Town lean.

@BoomFrog: In your D1 reads, you had somitomi as "vibing" and strong Town; now he's in your scum pool. What has changed here? Likewise, I'm curious how wam ended up on the townie side of null compared to others just below?


heury/Seven:

Plenty of issues here ranging from the strange response to BoomFrog's jimbob read to the reads list without any scum reads on it. As I alluded to here, I'm kind of leaning toward heury slot being some flavor of self-resurrecting survivor. I don't think it's impossible he's mafia, but I think it's somewhat low probability.

I haven't decided if I should be disappointed that nobody else got this reference from Zen or alarmed that I did. Also just generally that nobody commented on this post at all except TSS with some admin business. It feels sufficiently outrageous that I feel like at least the players unfamiliar with Zen's meta should have reacted more than they did.

I don't agree with Seven's defense of Wam here. I'll get into this more when I talk about Wam since I haven't done a reread of him yet, but mostly I find it interesting how strongly he came out on this one. Mostly just noting this for now.

Seven's content has otherwise been pretty solid. I like his pressure on moody and patzer. Seven's a good enough player that I'm sure regardless of his alignment he'd know this is exactly what he needs to do to save his slot. I'm happy to keep Seven around for a little while longer yet. If he is survivor, his only chance at this point is to play as pro-Town as possible. Survivor candidate, nullTown otherwise.


jimbob:

I've liked his early pressure and aggression. jimbob is super consistent with his thought process and is generally very easy to follow. His posts kind of ooze towniness and there's really only one scenario where I think he could possibly be scum, which I note below.

I'm noting that jimbob was persuaded by BoomFrog to vote heury.

I feel if TSS flips exactly mafia there is a reasonably strong chance that jimbob is a partner. Jimbob has spent a fair amount of time defending and supporting TSS, and TSS' reaction to jimbob's vote on him feels very wrong to me. Jimbob channeling his inner SDK could well include pushing a buddy in this sort of manner since both jimbob and SDK did the same thing to me when we were all scum together in Dark Tower. Outside of this specific scenario of scum!TSS I don't think jimbob is likely scum, however. Likely Town.

I don't agree with his somewhat dogmatic approach to identifying The Snide Sniper as not newbie town. It feels like he's dismissing possibilities because it doesn't fit his mental model. Don't get me wrong, his points do indeed often help identify newbie town, but but I don't believe the lack of them rules it out. Maybe I'm misunderstanding his point though? I honestly don't remember which game was my first town game, so I can't really say how it fitted with my personal experience there. Maybe up a point or two from my previous read, pending his reads.

My point here isn't that TSS cannot be Town because he doesn't have these qualities; rather that I don't agree with labelling particular newbie "slips "as definitively newbie Town unless they fall into one of these four categories. The particular content that you and Suzaku were labelling as newbie Town I could just as easily see coming from newbie scum, or newbie in a weird role they don't understand (Survivor, cult), and I think it's null at best. I do feel that there are certain elements of TSS' play that I do not feel are typical of new players unless they are scum (particularly the lack of paranoia). I'm not saying he's definitely scum, but if he's newbie Town, he is very atypical in his approach to the game.


moody:

Focused a lot on patzer. Without doing a deep dive into moody meta I don't recall off the top of my head if moody is the type of player to bus early and hard, especially with a player that they don't know. My gut is that scum!moody tends to go with "I'm always seen as scummy so you may as well bus me" to his buddies, rather than the other way around. I'm not sure I buy the case for moody/patzer as a team, though I won't rule out them being scum independent of each other. There are a couple of things (e.g. moody not recalling that she had played several games before) that feel like errors moody would not have made when talking to/about a buddy. Oh, this post from patzer makes me very strongly believe they are not buddies as well.

I'm noting that moody was persuaded by BoomFrog to vote heury.

I don't really have any strong feelings about moody's content otherwise. He's kind of doing what I expect moody to be doing. I did a quick skim of Werewolf on Wall Street and part of Crossover D1 (moody was scum in both) and I feel moody is a lot more hedgy and more focused on mechanics in those games so I think I'll leave him at nullTown.



patzer:

Generally had a fairly scummy D1. Early reads list is very heavy on neutral and some of the analysis doesn't seem to match the read as placed (e.g. the read on me) and the ordering here based on activity is also kind of dubious. Her D2 content looked better on first pass as she seemed much more engaged and active, but most of her content is actually more focused on setup and mechanics than actual scumhunting.

The actual analysis here and here is pretty thin. Thinking about this read of bessie:

Bessie: sensible strategy to try to generate more information by counterwagon, but it does raise the question of exactly who would take the blame for such a thing... if Heury flips scum (as we all expect) it would naturally cast at least some suspicion on those who didn’t go along with it. One can hardly argue a counterwagon is a sign of towniness if continued; Bessie doing so could simply be town information-getting but it could also be a scum attempt at obfuscation (bolstered by past questioning of others whose reads on heury were strengthened over time). I’m therefore putting a tentative lean scum, hypothesising that the “counterwagon information” explanation is in fact a distraction to make it look less suspicious.

I really don't like this. The logic doesn't really follow. Even if we were in a game with a single scumteam and no independents, bessie pushing an alternate wagon to heury does not necessarily imply that bessie is scum here. Surely it would have made more sense for bessie to push harder to save heury in D1 (rather than basically force his elimination) if they were co-aligned, and it's entirely possible that bessie's counterwagon is also scum. In a multiball game, there are too many combinations of alignment possibilities to assume this is true, and locking in on heury without considering other possibilities could leave town in a bad state even if there is a scum flip.

I have similar feelings about this jimbob read. The logic doesn't really follow, and there's a bunch of assumptions about the setup and heury that seem to be leaking into patzer's reads.

I find it very interesting here that patzer does not consider the possibility of Survivor!heury, and seems unreasonably convinced that heury must be scum in spite of other possibilities. I kind of feel like patzer is *really* hoping heury slot is going to flip scum because she is an unaligned scum slot and is hoping to gain some townie credit by yeeting him. Likely scum.

Noting various inconsistencies.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

On bussing:

The combination of this and this made me wonder as to either the possibility of a Laserguy-Heury scum team- Laserguy started off with a very strong targeting of heury which could have been at attempt at publicly distancing them

Secondly he’s saying moody pressuring heury isn’t necessarily a town sign- which is true, there are multiple scum factions after all, but again it should surely be obvious that scum wouldn’t pressure off one of their own.

I hadn't recalled the word bus; that is of course a possibility but it isn't the most likely one that would first come to mind.

On cults/conversion:

I think it's more likely that pizzazz lovers would try to convert more people to like pizzazz than it would be for posh people to turn other people posh- so I think if there is such a one on one mapping, the posh people are the mafia and the lively ones are the cult.

Hypothesis 3: Heury is cult. This is an intriguing one, as given we’ve got a halloween theme it would kind of make sense for there to be zombies in which case the cult could easily be the ones with resurrection power and able to bring back the dead while converting them to cultists.

I am hereby going to do a bit of game mechanic analysis. The sensible initial distribution others have mentioned would be 6 town, 2 mafia, 1 cult, 1 survivor. We've lost a town member; it's presumably 5-2-1-1 now unless one bears in mind the possibility of resurrection with conversion...
If mafia had conversion ability it'd be 4-3-1-1 now had Heury originally been town (if he'd originally been mafia they'd have resurrected Suzaku instead). This is too overpowered. Unbalanced dynamic; I'm ruling this option out.

If it's a cult with conversion-with-resurrection ability, it'd likely be 4-2-2-1 now, unless Heury was initially mafia in which case it would be 5-1-2-1 (or survivor in which case 5-2-2-0). This isn't too unbalanced although the number of resurrections would have to be limited to make it fair. Possibility.

Question for other players if they remember: Is it confirmed there's a conversion ability in the game or not? I don't recall.

Where did you find the cult’s flavour? I don’t remember it being announced. This is kind of important as it may affect my judgment; thank you for the info.

Ah right, I didn’t know it was confirmed the cult had recruitment ability. I think that makes the cult the only ones likely to have conversion powers then.

I take it cult recruitment is standard for games with cults in them then.
So yeah, it’s almost certainly going to be the case here.

On mafia resurrections:

Hypothesis 2: Heury is mafia. This can easily be explained by the mafia having a resurrection ability and bringing him back.

Re mafia with resurrection ability, it’s possible but feels incredibly overpowered. Not sure how it could be a fair game without us having a very strong counterbalancing power.

Interesting to see the use of "scum" here when I was specifically focused on the cult. (The mafia holding such a power would surely make them overpowered when combined with their kill ability). Good to see my hypothesis acknowledged though, thank you.

1) It was an auto-revival after all (phoenix claim). Doesn't absolve Seven of suspicion but would at least provide an explanation. Would not rule out the phoenix being the survivor; could also be mafia; less likely to be cult given cult totals but possible.

-not possible) heury was revived as a decoy. This possibility is gone because if Seven is town, the phoenix claim is correct.

3) heury, rather than suzaku, was resurrected as a decoy to confuse us.

somitomi:

Still haven't really got any strong vibes from him. I have mostly agreed with the thoughts and logic he has posted. I would like to see some updated reads before I commit to anything here. Leaving him at nullTown as before.


Suzaku:

Most likely Town. Presumably can't be mafia, probably can't be cult, and while I suppose there's an outside chance he's survivor, there's several other players that I think are *much* more likely to be this role.


The Snide Sniper:

Very light on content. As I've said earlier, I kind of get a weird vibe from TSS that he seems very unconcerned about any of the attention directed at his slot. He didn't really seem interested jimbob's vote on him or any of the subsequent analysis around it. As I've said, I'm inclined to attribute this to newbie scum, who know that pressure directed at them is generally legitimate and want to avoid it, versus newbie Town who tend to be very indignant when they're pressured because they know they are Town and assume everyone else should be able to see it too.

TSS is another player who seems quite happy yeeting the heury slot today without really considering alternatives. I don't care much for the retrospective scumread of heury.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

So wait, does the cult do something different from the mafia? I'm a bit confused here.

And yeah, mafia would have to be cult immune, otherwise the entire mafia would be screwed as soon as one of their members got recruited.

Just some idle speculation I've been doing about how the cult might be balanced, since I've never played with this kind of mechanic before. The alternative option didn't occur to me; would the "recruited" mafia member then be trying to destroy the cult from the inside?

It looks like the cult's flavor was discussed on page 5, though to my knowledge it hasn't been confirmed by a mod yet.

Hmm... I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's cult leader. TSS seems conspiciously aware of the cult, but it doesn't actually factor into any of his reads or scumhunting. Cult leader candidate, scum lean otherwise


Wam:

Talked about this a bit earlier with Zen, but what I really see missing in Wam's play here is thoughtful progression and development in his reads. Here Wam is pretty much locked in all of his town/scum reads fairly early, and nothing really has changed them substantially. I feel in recent games (WWZ, ND3, Apex), his opinions fluctuated in much more natural ways, and in several of those games, he pushed his scumreads fairly aggressively. Wam just doesn't have much of a presence in this game. Again, I feel the default assumption by wam here that heury slot should be the yeet today without really any analysis otherwise does not wear well. Scum lean.

Laser seems like usual day 1 laser, if jumping to reads faster than I remember but given how much some of the players have played together I think that's NAI.

Why do you think I'm jumping to reads faster than you remember? You discussed in WWZ that I would routinely read bessie off of one post. In Apex, which you also played in, I actually did this.


Town
LaserGuy
Suzaku
jimbob
BoomFrog
bessie
moody
somitomi
--------neutral line-------
Seven (Survivor read)
Wam
patzer
TheSnideSniper (Cult read)
Scum

I'm not certain about the ordering of the bottom reads. I'm putting TSS on the bottom because I think dealing with cult is probably more important than core mafia, but I think there's actually a higher probability that patzer is some flavor of scum overall and would not be unhappy with a yeet there.

[LaserGuy]

If there are any specific questions pending for me that aren't answered above, please flag them for me and I'll answer. I tried to answer everything I felt was outstanding but it's possible I missed something or other.

[Seven]

Yay! Seven is here. How much for a hair cut?

This fine pretty lady is spitting 100% straight truth, except that role is made up, which isn't a great move when you're already on the brink.

Why do you think my role is made up? I'm actually telling the truth for once. Also 7 Zeniis (or 34 Boom Bucks).

But we should still keep her as a valuable town asset anyway.

Keeping me around to join your cult?

I read "phoenix" as a role attribute, not an actual role. That said, @Seven, can we get a few more details on your role?

If I die (the first time as per the rules), I resurrect at noon the following day. Upon resurrection, there's a certain passive thing I gain but it's best not to talk about it. If I haven't been killed by noon Day 3 I can self annihilate and resurrect the next day.

Like, you mean clues in the flavor? There’s a lot of in-jokes in the flavor, and I am not ruling clues out because Madge loves to breadcrumb.

Ah, I was wondering if "I'll be looking for an interesting Madge mechanic" was saying "There's a Madge mechanic I've seen that's used something like this before so I'll be looking out for it".

The cold bessie pic is the best bessie, look at those eyes!!!

Any suggestion why heury might have deliberately mimicked his previous scum game, which led to his own D1 elimination?

The main thing I can think of are that he was trying to get a read on somi (who was his partner) and possibly wam and bessie who were in that game. Mainly somi though as exhibited here: viewtopic.php?p=7006#p7006

It might also be that he just wanted the resurrected passive sooner than later, but I don't think he would waste a town's elimination for that.

Also not cult for that matter. Do you think a town-aligned redirection could have caused Suzakue's death? What about a town vig? If not, why not?

As with Boom, I don't think there's a redirector in the game and really no reason to speculate about there being so unless there's evidence for it. It just seems too much. I also doubt Suzaku was vig killed considering no one was really scum reading him strongly.

@Seven - what would be the point of a self-annihilation?

See response to Sniper.

I don't think the cult count confirms you since you were dead at day start. A recruit by way of resurrection would make the life of cult very hard though, so I don't think you're likely to be cult.

For the record, by cultist, I'm referring specifically to the cult leader.

[Seven]

Theory

Pat - Survivor
Wam - Mafia
TSS - Mafia
Somi - Cultist

[Seven]

I change my mind on Wam, Laser. I think that quote of his read on you in particular is off. I think Pat is survivor because she is doing a lot of talking without really moving the game forward. Like the mechanical analysis thing with the wrong numbers. It's busy work on the surface but doesn't actually help because it's the wrong numbers. @Pat please acknowledge that there are 11 players and that your mech analysis was off. Another thing is the not knowing that there is a cult/that cult recruits. Boom explained what a cult does one page 2 here: viewtopic.php?p=6949#p6949 so she should have known that it was the alignment converting role she was seeking. The whole thing to me just reads to me as her trying to present herself as a non-threat to mafia while at the same time trying to appear to be doing townie work.

[bessie]

Daily catch up post.

Cynical view owes you a couple of Milkbones.

awesome.PNG (149.36 KiB) Viewed 3666 times

it takes a lot of effort to sort out the middle of my list on signs that don’t mean as much relevance, but on the other hand mechanic analysis is crucial for working of if town!seven is plausible. Which is really the main question at the moment.

No. Your town-scum list with reads is totally the most important thing to which you should be devoting all your game time. You should totally not do any more mechanical analysis until after you do your reads.

Where did you find the cult’s flavour? I don’t remember it being announced. This is kind of important as it may affect my judgment; thank you for the info.

Another example of patzer not paying attention. It's almost like there are two different people playing under patzer's username...

Yeah I’m really just about done with patzer’s active lurking.

I'd like to make a counter-public announcement and say that this is only an opinion. I disagree with this entirely and think it is alright to put someone at L-1 so long as you announce it.

Yeah, welcome to xkcd...

Just so everyone is perfectly clear on this, Seven is Zenii on xkcd and Xivii on Smashboards (did somitomi not remember?). More on Zen below.

We get to vote today to eliminate someone.
If heury is town and we auto-eliminate him, then we’re not eliminating mafia.
If we auto-eliminate heury today, there is no extra info to analyze from the elimination because it is just a rehash of D1.

Do you disagree with anything in the thought process I outlined in that quote? If not, which scenario do you think is more likely and why?

I don’t disagree that the scenario that you outlined in the quote is a possibility, and I never said I did. I am suspicious that you do not agree that the scenario that I outlined is a possibility. And it make me think that my scenario might be more possible than yours, which is why you are trying to discredit it.

To be fair I am now realizing just how little I remember of when I used to play lol. It’s like 10x as hard as I expected, trying to remember so many people and posts and intricate game details. I’ve reread the thread a few times now and still keep forgetting stuff.

Everyone forgets stuff. And we realize that you haven’t played in a long time. We’re trying to help you out by asking you questions, but you’re not answering which looks suspicious. Ok, let’s try this, here’s a list of everyone currently alive in the game that isn’t Seven/heury and isn’t you:

bessie
BoomFrog
jimbobmacdoodle
LaserGuy
moody7277
somitomi
The Snide Sniper
Wam

Can you make a post and use everyone’s name in it at least one time, but do not mention Seven/heury at all?

I think this discussion is probably null for bessie as she picks fights with somi almost every game regardless of their respective alignments.

Yeah, sorry about that. Hopefully we can get Plytho back here soon to distract me from somi.

I haven't decided if I should be disappointed that nobody else got this reference from Zen or alarmed that I did. Also just generally that nobody commented on this post at all except TSS with some admin business. It feels sufficiently outrageous that I feel like at least the players unfamiliar with Zen's meta should have reacted more than they did.

I’m pretty sure BoomFrog and I both got the reference (I also noticed Seven used one of the avatars he used in Crossover Mafia, but not the one he inherited from Zyth, and not my favorite which was when he was arguing with Evil George Washington he changed his avatar to Thomas Jefferson it still make me laugh), but I didn’t see any need to respond to it, kinda like I didn’t see the need to respond to Wam’s Sabrar vote on Page 1. But as you say, interesting that others didn’t comment more on that post, and the vote for a player that is not even in the game. I think this looks not good for patzer and The Snide Sniper (and perhaps for another I am thinking about).


My dinner is here back later.

[LaserGuy]

FYI: About 24 hours until deadline as of this post.

Theory

Pat - Survivor
Wam - Mafia
TSS - Mafia
Somi - Cultist

Why do you think somi in particular is cult?

I change my mind on Wam, Laser. I think that quote of his read on you in particular is off. I think Pat is survivor because she is doing a lot of talking without really moving the game forward. Like the mechanical analysis thing with the wrong numbers. It's busy work on the surface but doesn't actually help because it's the wrong numbers. @Pat please acknowledge that there are 11 players and that your mech analysis was off. Another thing is the not knowing that there is a cult/that cult recruits. Boom explained what a cult does one page 2 here: viewtopic.php?p=6949#p6949 so she should have known that it was the alignment converting role she was seeking. The whole thing to me just reads to me as her trying to present herself as a non-threat to mafia while at the same time trying to appear to be doing townie work.

I agree that this does seem like a plausible explanation of her behaviour. I will think on this..

Yeah, sorry about that. Hopefully we can get Plytho back here soon to distract me from somi.

I think I'd rather you stick with somi, honestly. He's much more concise than plytho if nothing else.

I haven't decided if I should be disappointed that nobody else got this reference from Zen or alarmed that I did. Also just generally that nobody commented on this post at all except TSS with some admin business. It feels sufficiently outrageous that I feel like at least the players unfamiliar with Zen's meta should have reacted more than they did.

I’m pretty sure BoomFrog and I both got the reference (I also noticed Seven used one of the avatars he used in Crossover Mafia, but not the one he inherited from Zyth, and not my favorite which was when he was arguing with Evil George Washington he changed his avatar to Thomas Jefferson it still make me laugh), but I didn’t see any need to respond to it, kinda like I didn’t see the need to respond to Wam’s Sabrar vote on Page 1. But as you say, interesting that others didn’t comment more on that post, and the vote for a player that is not even in the game. I think this looks not good for patzer and The Snide Sniper (and perhaps for another I am thinking about).

I shouldn't have doubted your encyclopedic memory.

What do you think about Zen's commentary on patzer above?

[Seven]

Why do you think somi in particular is cult?

Mainly because I think if Wam is scum, Sniper is his partner based on these:

viewtopic.php?p=7200#p7200 (rule of 3)
viewtopic.php?p=7202#p7202 (something about this doesn't fit together right to me)

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I'm struggling with time and energy levels for this game at the moment. We have just over 24 hours to deadline, and outside of patzer and Seven, I'm having a hard time nailing my gut reads down, and I'm not finding the time to do the in depth player by player read-throughs to help.

It's 24 hours or thereabouts until deadline. It's time for some votes people. Also reads lists if you haven't done one recently.

Mine, updated from before based largely on how I feel about the current situation:
Town
Suzaku
wam*
somitomi
BoomFrog*
The Snide Sniper*
LaserGuy (mafia, cult leader, or town, reads list looks okay, but not convinced, but enough to move up)
bessie* (mafia, cult leader, or town)
moody (mafia or cult leader)
Seven (up one space, due to scum!patzer, survivor candidate, otherwise mafia, outside chance of cultist, but not cult leader)
patzer (survivor candidate, or mafia)
Scum

I'm having a little trouble making these reads make a coherent scum set make sense, which either means someone's doing some hard bussing, or there's one or more scum in the top half of my list. Here's my current thinking:
1) I think the Survivor is one of Seven or patzer. Seven earlier made sense to me, and I think her self-rez ability still makes sense belonging to the Survivor. On the other hand, Seven's case for patzer being the Survivor makes a lot of sense to me too. I can't remember if Seven or someone else said this (and I'm too lazy to look), but patzer being Survivor is also hinted act by the fact that she didn't include Survivor!Seven/heury in her rez reasoning speculations, which might be a survivor-slip.
2) I think patzer as cult leader doesn't make sense, or she's a very good actor. Cult leader!patzer seems to have way too much confusion surrounding what cult is and does (also said by Seven).
3) Discussed extensively already, but there's relatively little chance of Seven being cult (recruit via resurrection is possible, but I reckon unlikely the cult leader would have chosen to recruit heury, due to the likelihood they'd get voted off again and expose resurrection being the recruitment method) and is almost 100% not the cult leader, unless they were resurrected as one. If Seven does flip cult today (and today only), it could provide some real clues about who is the cult leader (in particular, I'd be looking at players with less experience or those more likely to take risks for the cult leader).
4) I need to come back to looking at possible mafia partners for patzer. Off the top of my head, LaserGuy is a remotely possible candidate, but I just feel like it's unlikely for other reasons, which I'm reluctant to explain at this point (to be clear, I have no hidden knowledge about LaserGuy, but I do have some thoughts which would not be useful for town to expose if scum haven't come to the same conclusion). moody voting patzer D1 might rule him out, because it would have been risky that the wagon might switch if heury came back and defended themselves. Seven is ruled out due to prior analysis. bessie is ruled out for her D2 vote on patzer. That rules out my top 4 other scum candidates.
5) Similarly, I need to look back at mafia partner candidates for Seven. They were dead N1, and mafia don't have day chat from my memory of the rules, so there's no chance their mafia buddy would have known that Seven's role would allow an auto-rez, unless it's actually a factional rule (which I'm inclined to think it isn't). I'd look at moody, but moody's D2 vote for Seven seems to rule this out. Bessie is also ruled out due to the D1 vote. LaserGuy and patzer are ruled out for the same reasons as above. That rules out my top 4 other scum candidates again.
6) Since I don't view either patzer or heury as possible cult leaders, I'm running out of possible scum buddies for either, and they can't both be Survivor, I either have a misread on one of them (i.e. one is town), or one of my town reads is actually mafia.

Wild guess:
Survivor - Seven
Mafia - patzer, ??
Cult leader - moody?

[Wam]

2) I think patzer as cult leader doesn't make sense, or she's a very good actor. Cult leader!patzer seems to have way too much confusion surrounding what cult is and does (also said by Seven).

I'm currently re reading and catching up but last night based on my skim reading I was wondering if patzer was being deliberately clueless regarding the cult to try and not give away info they know. I.e. they are the cult leader and are struggling to work out what town do and don't know about the cult to fit it.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

2) I think patzer as cult leader doesn't make sense, or she's a very good actor. Cult leader!patzer seems to have way too much confusion surrounding what cult is and does (also said by Seven).

I'm currently re reading and catching up but last night based on my skim reading I was wondering if patzer was being deliberately clueless regarding the cult to try and not give away info they know. I.e. they are the cult leader and are struggling to work out what town do and don't know about the cult to fit it.

Hmmm... fair. if I get a chance, I'll reread patzer tonight, as she's my current top-scum candidate anyway, and see what makes sense. A thought did occur to me as I'm typing this that she tried to recruit but thought she failed due to a roleblock, and is now panicking thinking she's been made.

[Wam]

@seven thoughts on the above?

[Seven]

I vastly prefer to elim somi over Patzer, mainly because I think he's the best cult candidate, but I don't think I can make a convincing case.

Vote: Patzer

Will switch to somi if others are willing to go there though.

Ninja edit @wam: I think it's too on the nose, especially because someone had mentioned that as a possibility before, yet she continued doing it.

[Wam]

Welcome seven!

unvote

So seven given where you have replaced I to why shouldn't you be the elim today?

Also a heads up I'm not going to be around much tomorrow.

Seven/zen never saw an answer to the above?

With regards to seven I know jimbob said it above but an auto resurrection as part of the role makes most sense for the survivor.

To add to my patzer cult leader suggestion above

[

Question for other players if they remember: Is it confirmed there's a conversion ability in the game or not? I don't recall.

Comments like this are now beginning to make me wonder whether patzer is a Jester... @patzer - we've been discussing a cult the entire game, since the very first game post in the thread, in fact. It's been discussed in mod posts, and in questions to the mod. I'm assuming you know what a cult is in terms of Mafia...

There's way too much nonsense coming from patzer. If she were really that confused about the game state, I think she'd have asked most of these questions D1. I repeat my earlier comment about it feeling like she's panicking.

This point by jimbob I agree patzer must know but is it trying to look like town and not knowing.

Where did you find the cult’s flavour? I don’t remember it being announced. This is kind of important as it may affect my judgment; thank you for the info.

Another example of patzer not paying attention. It's almost like there are two different people playing under patzer's username...

[/quote]

Again cult flavour " not being known by town" but town wouldnt worry about it being announced. Also on re reading I think theres a slip in the above. It implies the flavour being speculated is correct as otherwise how would it be announced...

Wam:

Laser seems like usual day 1 laser, if jumping to reads faster than I remember but given how much some of the players have played together I think that's NAI.

Why do you think I'm jumping to reads faster than you remember? You discussed in WWZ that I would routinely read bessie off of one post. In Apex, which you also played in, I actually did this.

Maybe should have been reads faster for players who aren't Bessie! Was just a gut feel at the time.

viewtopic.php?p=8374#p8374
This is a very rapid pivot from seven from by biggest fan to jumping on the bandwagon. I get vibes of wanting an elim that is anyone but seven in there. But tbh I got similar vibes from town seven in wwz.

Town
Suzaku - as others have said suzaku could only be town or survivor.
Jimbob -solid town
Laserguy - town, their wrong but scum laser doesn't pivot to me at that point unless they are trying to save a buddy they let the patzer or seven elim go. I will reevaluate if either of those flip mafia.


Boom - town only reason they are not higher is boom can fake town as scum very very well.
Bessie - town lean, more town bessie but I'm worried from a meta pov no real tunnels...
Moody - neutral, not seen anything day 2 that made me move him up or down others have gone up.
Somi - feels very in the background same as wwe
Snide sniper - seen nothing to move my view day 2. If we have a vig this is a good spot to hit!

Seven - survivor is the role that makes the most sense to me to have an auto rez and whilst sevens play has been good it hasn't made up for Heury's.
Patzer - cult leader as above.

So I'm missing the mafia completely, I'm 99%certain they are in the boom to snide grouping above. More re reading needed.

But for now let's (hopefully) remove cult

vote patzer

L-2

Off topic

That would be one way of making the game quite bastard: advertise that there is a Cult, but not give them the ability to recruit!

This comment gave me an idea I will look at in my next game. A poisoneer type role where recruits are tagged for recruit then activated on a later night. Cult leader can either tag or activate not both.

[Seven]

To be clear, it's not that I was ever disagreeing with the possibility of you being scum, but rather that you being stagnant is a scum tell. I still don't think stagnant play from you is a scum tell or that you necessarily are being stagnant relative to the game pace.

[patzer]

Well fuck. Wondering if I should let people know my role yet- if you yeet me I won't get the chance to give out potentially useful information, so I'll need to say soon.

[Wam]

I would claim your role if I was you, if claiming would help town.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I would claim your role if I was you, if claiming would help town.

+1.

[patzer]

I would claim your role if I was you, if claiming would help town.

If I would get yeeted otherwise, it'd help town.

If I had any other way out of it, it'd be beneficial for me to refrain from claiming... but I don't know if I do

[patzer]

Going to update my reads list first since I was in the middle of writing this out.

Bessie: sensible strategy to try to generate more information by counterwagon, but it does raise the question of exactly who would take the blame for such a thing... if Heury flips scum (as we all expect) it would naturally cast at least some suspicion on those who didn’t go along with it. One can hardly argue a counterwagon is a sign of towniness if continued; Bessie doing so could simply be town information-getting but it could also be a scum attempt at obfuscation (bolstered by past questioning of others whose reads on heury were strengthened over time). I’m therefore putting a tentative lean scum, hypothesising that the “counterwagon information” explanation is in fact a distraction to make it look less suspicious.

Jimbob: initially skeptical of heury wagon but later joined on. Reason for initial skepticism seems a bit odd but logical, still downgrading my initial lean-town rating to neutral

Moody: fuck, I’ve been looking through everyone’s posts by clicking on the number to the right of their name, only to fond that POSTS IN THE GOJOE THREAD SHOW AS BEING UNSPOILERED WHEN YOU LOOK THROUGH THEIR POSTS LIKE THIS.
Yes seriously, the spoiler just completely fails to work in their list of posts. Terrible terrible software design. I am very lucky the little bit I saw before immediately clicking away didn’t reveal any information about their alignment, but still... huge gigantic warning for all, DO NOT DO WHAT I DID.
Anyway, lean town because I don’t think scum would be pressuring heury so much.

Onto the rest of the players soon, but for now I’d like to quickly ask @Snide Sniper if it’s possible to figure out the forum software in a way that doesn’t leave Gojoe posts unspoilered when reading through someone’s posts. It’d be way easier to quickly look through people’s stuff then.

Trying to read everyone else, I suppose the key question is to what extent people are jumping on me to distract from themself, versus how much it's actually genuine.

Wam: mostly quiet but what he has said has been sensible. Neutral

Somi: His posts have an honest feel to them- especially the pressuring of Seven to an extent that really wouldn't be needed for scum. Lean town

Boomfrog: Inquisitive mindset, tries to pressure everyone somewhat without bias. Reminds me of Laserguy who's probably town leaning. Lean town

Sniper: Not a lot noteworthy here, seems to just be going along in the background. Neutral.

So trying to order people...

I think I'll have to put jimbob lower thanks to this.

Now an obvious question, given the decent chance of a survivor!Seven, is how plausible a jimbob-bessie scum team is.
Another question is well... Boomfrog says it's a bad idea to keep around survivor!Seven but he won't explain optimal mafia play. This feels like someone who's experienced and genuinely trying to help out- I'm sure another experienced player would have caught him out if he was wrong.

I'll have to tentatively say something along the lines of

Boomfrog, Somi, Laserguy, Moody, Wam, Sniper, Bessie, Jimbob. And obviously Seven at the bottom