Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D1]

[Wam]

Glad to see I made the right call. Where was alm that adum before I voted. Your play today has screamed of not taking a position and hoping I vote mak.

[AdumbroDeus]

As far as my own play, it's pretty silly for me to claim to be the N1 kill as scum in general in that gamestate.

Firstly, if I was mafia and we holstered, if I was targeted by an informative role it could've potentially been POE'd. Keep in mind, we'd have to have planned this at the night phase, so before we knew Bessie targeted me.

It also could've easily brought third party suspicion, which it did.

We also don't have an alternative explanation, Santy was a bodyguard that night. Which suggests our options are that I was nk'd or I holstered.

Given we have an even number of players, given the EV of the Gambit was probably negative, given that I was seen as obvious town last game day, this makes no sense as a Gambit.

[Makhaira]

No, I still have no clue.

I'm disappointed.

I thought that the cop might be a paranoid scumcop and was trying to kill me and cop me to "establish" sanity so they could clear their mates.

walk me through how this would have worked specifically

[AdumbroDeus]

No, I still have no clue.

I'm disappointed.

I thought that the cop might be a paranoid scumcop and was trying to kill me and cop me to "establish" sanity so they could clear their mates.

walk me through how this would have worked specifically

Basically, I was presuming if they were paranoid and I was yeeted, the assumption by town would be that the cop was insane.

A paranoid scum cop could then target their mates to give their mates a "clear" which town would interpret "not town" results as.

I was trying to breadcrumb this to Seven because basically nobody else on this site catches breadcrumbs well and I was hoping she could use one of her other powers to figure out if I was right.

[Makhaira]

I will self pres vote if needed but of all the POE JC is my top town read.

I'm thinking outside my towncore.and yes paired scum/indies is possible for thea and Fred but think we can solve that later in game and I think it's unlikely.

Town

JC - most town jc has ever looked I find it weird that's who thea has gone for
Moody - think thier reactions to the claim stuff show a desire to solve.
Mak - feels Town but within scum range
Bessie - see previous post
Santy - I think they are lying about having a vig shot to give them cover being caught shooting someone later. See previous post about how they didn't flag back to adum with a vig shot its not mathematically optimal to no elim.
Somi - interactions with claim are weird.

Scum

Vote somi

Like, look at this. From an objective perspective I have equity with somi. Not copping me is wild

Wam can you reiterate your rationale for copping the masons over santy N2

[Wam]

Paranoia and viewing that confirming my towncore was a better use of it.

[Makhaira]

@adum provide a plausible reason why scum!wam targets you with his watcher ability N1 as well as the NK

what are you thoughts on wams progression on holstering cop on N1 for greater late game value to using in N2

[Makhaira]

Paranoia and viewing that confirming my towncore was a better use of it.

explain your progression on why you felt the need to cash in cop N2 despite stating previously that you wanted to hold cop for late game

[Makhaira]

Vote: moody

-Had TMI that Adum was targeted for kill N1
-Didn’t vote somi
-Lurked all of D1
-Pointing out stream of conscious posts rather than just making the posts

wish seven was alive to crystallize bullet point one for me fml

[Wam]

Paranoia and viewing that confirming my towncore was a better use of it.

explain your progression on why you felt the need to cash in cop N2 despite stating previously that you wanted to hold cop for late game

I decided I wasn't making late game having been the runner up day 2.

[Makhaira]

So, we can safely say that Wam lied about role watching me now, right?

what made you so confident about this at the time adum?

[AdumbroDeus]

@adum provide a plausible reason why scum!wam targets you with his watcher ability N1 as well as the NK

I was seen as obvious town n1, so catching information on potential protective and informative roles has value.

It also gives an alibi if they're seen visiting me.

what are you thoughts on wams progression on holstering cop on N1 for greater late game value to using in N2

I don't think it's particularly suspicious, game states do change.

The main odd thing is targetting their town core instead of eliminating somebody they'd consider more suspicious. Especially somebody with a potentially dangerous PR.

[AdumbroDeus]

So, we can safely say that Wam lied about role watching me now, right?

what made you so confident about this at the time adum?

Madge's fix. I didn't think it made sense for Wam to see publishing if he couldn't see loud with his role watcher.

[AdumbroDeus]

Oh, I probably should've noted this in my list but it genuinely doesn't make sense that Wam's arguing I particularly targeted Seven to leave them as the only person without a clear when the obvious explanation for Seven's death is they had a doctor remaining and the kills have been HYPER conservative this game.

[AdumbroDeus]

It just smacks of mega reaching.

[AdumbroDeus]

Particularly since, then there's no reason I didn't follow through. Why did I waffle and give up all town control, it doesn't make sense.

[Makhaira]

That's what you BELIEVE it is. That's not what I claimed. Which again brings up the question, what are you trying to pull?

I'm not trying to pull anything. I'm working with the information that I have available to me.

I think the deliberate ambiguity you are creating around your role is extremely scummy and I cannot see any pro-Town reason for you to do so. I don't care what powers you have or how strong you think they are. You are creating space for scum to operate, or you are scum.

I have to cool down my language because, that's genuinely so bad meta-wise. A BP had one purpose, to absorb NKs. After the full extent of a BP is already known, it can do nothing more useful. A one shot can't pull an important power, a full BP won't be targeted again or will just get strongmanned, a commuter or hider will get roleblocked, etc.

But regardless of whether we disagree, that is no excuse for lying about my claim.

why were you so convinced thea was lying about your claim instead of misunderstanding it

[AdumbroDeus]

I'm not trying to pull anything. I'm working with the information that I have available to me.

I think the deliberate ambiguity you are creating around your role is extremely scummy and I cannot see any pro-Town reason for you to do so. I don't care what powers you have or how strong you think they are. You are creating space for scum to operate, or you are scum.

I have to cool down my language because, that's genuinely so bad meta-wise. A BP had one purpose, to absorb NKs. After the full extent of a BP is already known, it can do nothing more useful. A one shot can't pull an important power, a full BP won't be targeted again or will just get strongmanned, a commuter or hider will get roleblocked, etc.

But regardless of whether we disagree, that is no excuse for lying about my claim.

why were you so convinced thea was lying about your claim instead of misunderstanding it

I picked them up on doing similar subtle manipulations in AI mafia, first to you then in wagonomics. I didn't pursue it then and regret it.

I thought Thea was too smart of a player to make that mistake and if they did would just admit they messed up as town instead of trying to pin the blame back on me.

[AdumbroDeus]

*Ping*

You still here?

[Makhaira]

ugh im getting super tired Im trying to speedread the end of the game but like heres kind of my take

adum has more WIM over the longrun of the game. kind of like I was saying if I was scum it would be my magnum opus game, the same or very similar is true for adum this game if he is scum. powerwolfing at a high level of production over a LONG period of time. not outside his range, but just a harder feat to accomplish imo. and also the wisdom of the crowd near end game seemed to lean wam, so if its scum!adum we all just got seriously outplayed

on top of that, the powerwolf theory kind of requires that scum!adum go for a no kill N1 to go for an all-in strat to bolster the credibility of him being the NK target N1, which seems like it requires more squeeze than juice it gives especially as such an early game gambit

wams votes near EOD2 look opportunistic. I get the vibe that scum were actually kind of in a double bind and didnt see a way out that didnt involve bussing to get people to second guess the proposed POEs. moody and somi hops onto the late D2 wam wagon look very much like last minute attempts for bus credit and wam votes somi, which could be a hedge in case that wagon goes instead so it would create a strong unpairing

I think early game adum has some weird connections to somi and moody but as the game goes on they dont interact with the slot much and adum haad many opportunities to hammer his mates to try to get +EV on bus credit that he didn't take

basically either adum has to be a godfather and played the best scum game of his life, or its just wam and wam was basically trying to get an advance alibi against trackers/watchers by getting an idea of who else might have targeted and therefore gotten info related to the scum NK for that night. like it would allow you to anticipate possible PR early claims against you which is very +EV for scum. if its scum!wam then scum just had to commit to a full bus strat late D2 in the hopes of casting double on core pillars of people's POEs thru bus credit. Wam even make a bid for bus credit post somi flip in an engagement with santy

Im probably going to go about another 20 min just for due diligence but I think this about the best solve Im going to be able to come up with. yall are both good enough at scum to pull off the paths to wincon Im assessing here so this is not an easy task lol, mad respect to both of yalls hustle and thanks for both making time to be here at deadline to send this game off properly

[Makhaira]

im also just terrified that adum has been scum gaslighting the fuck out of me all game about AtE and like expected level of play and Im going to get slapped with an overswarm ego post if its not scum!wam like fmllllllllllllllllll

[Makhaira]

You cant be a liability in yeet or lose as long as you are always trying to solve and push for our win if town.

You are a liability if you selfvote and makes us waste a valuable yeet on yourself just as an attempt for your read to be more valued

No Mak is right. Town has lost a lot due to the wrong people getting to yeet or lose. And I don't think I am the right person.

If my rationale is ignored it's kind of hard to help solve. I literally just caught Thea lying about my claims then lying about why I had an issue with it and saying I was "upset". This is the same type of subtle manipulations that pinged me last Halloween, but I didn't take it seriously enough.

So far, one person has commented on it and nobody has taken it seriously.

There's no reasonable chance of it happening right now, and I think I may have read game state the wrong way for it anyway, but I think you're wrong on the value of making a sacrifice play.

bolded seems crazy inconsistent for scum!adum given the strategy he would have to be going for to win this game I think

[AdumbroDeus]

im also just terrified that adum has been scum gaslighting the fuck out of me all game about AtE and like expected level of play and Im going to get slapped with an overswarm ego post if its not scum!wam like fmllllllllllllllllll

Loooool

But oh gorf, we need to convince OS to play again!

[Makhaira]

On the you versus Thea thing, I've played with bessie long enough to think you being cagey about your role is not AI, but I can totally see Thea's point about wanting you to lay cards on the table at this stage in the game.

Town
Adum
Thea
Fred
bessie

Santy

Seven

wam
Mak
Scum

Why did Mak suddenly become your strongest scum read when you were parked on Wam all of D2?

rough bus hedge here for scum!wam from a mate that seven may have caught

[Makhaira]

scum!adum using his double vote to hammer his last remaining mate is CRAZY work lmao