Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D1]

[Freddino18]

So been trying to think through scenarios i think i have covered them all. For the avoidance of doubt I went into today and through most of the day thinking no elim was the right answer. Formatting of the below is awful, on phone so apologies



Because someone in the game is a godfather and I need to work out who.

Your perspective doesn't make any sense to me here. From the point of view of Town!Wam, you have Townclears on Adum, Mak, and me (and, by extension, Fred). You know that one of these results must be wrong. But I don't understand how you could ever entertain any of this indy speculation about me/Fred from your point of view: If your result is wrong and I am non-Town, then the only possible way I can be such is if I am either scum with somi/moody (which you didn't consider) or the somi/moody faction is dead and we are an otherscum mafia separate from them, and in either case it is imperative that we are yeeted today or Town loses.

The only case where this indy business could possibly work from your point of view is if there are two godfathers, both of whom happened to have been targeted by one of our three cop results... which you've also never suggested you were considering, and I think is such a bizarre edge case that I don't know why you would. Here you seemed to think indy lovers couldn't even be a godfather, and seemed to think it would be Fred for some reason? Which again seems to me to imply that you believe your result is true.

So what doesn't make sense to me is from your perspective, no elimination is never the correct play. Because either Fred and I are confirmed Town and lovers and if we are killed overnight, Town gains nothing, or if we aren't lovers or someone else is killed, then we are just throwing away an elim for no good reason. Or we are full scum and no elimination is always losing. So it is incredibly strange to me that you went into the day thinking no elim was even an option or would think this at any point. I feel like you are trying to mimic Adum's perspective here, but Adum can at least consistently believe that you are scum and I am godfather (or you just lied about your result), but that doesn't work from the point of view of Town!you because you should be accounting for the added knowledge that you are Town. The fact that this does not enter your calculations seems to pretty strongly point to you being scum.

Also if your not lovers claim that now and we can do 2 elims and have a much better chance of winning this.

Ah, finally someone asks. No, we are not lovers

[Theallieza]

And yes, I know the point of claiming siblings is suggesting you're town, but that's BS.

Not going to lie, I am planning on taking immense satisfaction from proving you wrong.

[AdumbroDeus]

And yes, I know the point of claiming siblings is suggesting you're town, but that's BS.

The lifelink takes away the entire reasoning claiming to save Fredd is townie and it makes no sense to hide it this long because that means town has a nasty surprise in terms of available yeets whenever you're killed, as green check marks with no protection. Strong arming your partner into ending the day by killing a townread ESPECIALLY makes no sense when you could've claimed it instead and let town redo their calculus.

I've already explained my reasoning for yeeting Santy and I stand by it. We were the alternative yeet and it would have resulted in basically a guaranteed loss unless scum was exactly Santy.

The town POV would've been to claim and argue for the Santy yeet. In fact you should've claimed a while before that so town could plan around it. Fredd had no reason to support your decision unless you'd literally lose with death.

The fact is, from a town POV you gotta plan for eventually being NK'd. As Seven correctly pointed out, scum could not let you get to 3 person elim or lose. So town needs to know to plan their Elims.

Plus, you're claiming masoned siblings with one shot abilities, makes the complaint about my role being convoluted seem hypocritical.

I have a completely standard role with standard modifiers. You travel back through time to activate your power and have some weird mechanics about getting gifts that doesn't seem to track with any other role. No other role we have seen is even remotely similar to yours.

I have a completely standard role with Standard modifiers.

I am a effectively 1 shot bulletproof temporary doublevoter. You don't have one standard role, you have 3 standard roles as per your claim.

The gift thing is Madge either being complete because she's proud of the role or trolling me. It's flavor is complicated but it's mechanics are extremely simple.

[Freddino18]

I'm Bruce Willis from 12 Monkeys (no clue what that means, and forgot the character name) and Thea's Bruce Willis from some other time travel movie. My PFP is Gem from Power Rangers RPM, Gold Ranger and twin of Gemma, the Silver Ranger.

[madge]

Madge is both perfect and merciful!

Votals:
Wam - 1 - Fred
No Elim - 1 - Wam

Not voting: Adumb, mak, Thea

There are 5 players alive, 3 to vote out.

Night 6 falls at 4pm China time tomorrow, which is about eight and a half hours from now: https://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/6 ... ed-day-end

[Theallieza]

I think I'm fine with a no elim or yeeting Wam at this point. I'll be around another hour or so and then close to deadline and will drop a vote one way or the other depending on what Mak wants to do.

[AdumbroDeus]

Ok, now are you good with my plan? Do you find any mechanical issues with it?

[Theallieza]

My simplistic read going into is that you and Fred are town lovers. So that would effectively be 3/1 mylo and the play is no elim surely?

The question was, what was the point in entertaining all of that speculation about independent roles, etc.? From the point of view of Town!you, none of that could possibly ever be true except in the very unlikely two-godfather-setup world. You put a huge amount of effort into working out all of the possible outcomes, and didn't spend any time today trying to sort out whether we might be scum and we are in LYLO.

[AdumbroDeus]

Got about 5 hours til deadline

[Makhaira]

sorry guys my schedule has been fucking nonsense its been brutal to find time to deep dive this

Im not gonna be arrogant here and agree that with thea and fred claiming life link we have to play conservative and go for a deeper sort

if they are town or indy I think scum have to make a crucial call here about whether to elim them and go to 2v1 endgame against the other two town, because if they kill someone else and go to 4v1 thats a very awkward scenario

I think with the extra time in night phase to review the game I can win a 2v1 endgame against scum if they choose to sort thea/fred for us so I have to leave that play open because I think its my highest +EV to win. plus I talked a lot of shit about endgame coalitions and if Im not willing to take the hot seat Im a grime ass hypocrite

Vote: No Elim

Ill also full claim incase I dont survive night yall should have all my moves incase one is crucial to final solve

I'm Teal’c from Stargate SG-1, Town Motivating Loudener. Each night I can target one player, and the following night they will be able to act twice the following night. I'm specifically told my ability may not affect certain abilities, and the mafia night action is used as an example to of a possible ability that could be unaffected. I'm also told that my ability will make my target's abilities loud the night they use the double power and that they will be informed of it. I'm told the loudness causes results, targets, or other results to be posted in the thread at phase starts or ends.

That's literally everything paraphrased to be as brief but I think strictly accurate as possible.

I will withhold on provided wincondition because a.) I havent check with sab and madge what is fair to paraphrase and b.) the scum cant kill me aand the one other townie that must exist minimum so partner you will need that as a weapon in final lylo if I do not survive, god speed

[Makhaira]

thea and fred, do you think we are in 9v3?

It's looking that way. I can't rule it out but I think it's more practical to find mafia and if the game doesn't end then we can look for Indies.

what are the best reasons not to flip one of your slots to confirm you arent indies and then win in 2v1 endgame if you are both town?

Town would lose by force. If you want to try to sort us, it'd be best to try Adum's plan and hope scum goes along with it.

who is the play in me/adum/wam endgame from yalls POV?
[/quote]

Hmm...

I don't really have any reason to scumread you and you have a mechanical clear. If you are godfather mafia, I think you played great and town just has to eat the loss.

Wam I think is the correct play from a mechanical point of view. Every slot is cleared but him, I think he setup balances better with scum having his powers, and the 3 JoaTs having one scum is more thematic. On play, though, there's a lot I like. He feels kinda townie to me, and his usage of powers feels reasonable, and he was pushed by scum on multiple occasions. Scum has been bussing a lot of he's scum. I feel like if he were going into this situation he'd had more of a plan to make progress and Wam seems very listless right now, though on the other hand as a presumptive elim I don't get a sense of urgency to solve either. Watching Adum is odd from scum. Maybe he wanted a plausible reason to be there and see what kinds of roles would target him, I guess.

Adum is like the opposite for me. Mechanically he's cleared in two different ways and any explanation for why he isn't is complicated (GF + something to the explain N1). On play he's been kind of all over the place and feels kinda open wolfy to me at times. I never had the sense he was interested in either the somi or moody elims and was pushing in other directions (though I guess if Wam is scum then he's accuracy looks a little better).

In spite of my present vote, I think I've come around to agree with Fred that the smart play is to trust our results and yeet Wam.

Unvote
[/quote] If you're town I really fuck with this post btw the analysis of adum and wam here very much tracks my own so like this is a crazy insane highlevel pocket if you arent town but damn I really hope you actually are just town and sorry if Im setting up to get you deleted here, if you're town I will try extremely hard not to throw endgame

[Makhaira]

omg I duplicated the original editing error but I think you get my point thea

[Makhaira]

Ok, now are you good with my plan? Do you find any mechanical issues with it?

no explicit issues no but I wont say I fully track all the nuance of your plan. but nothing seems immediately throwing and I just think with lifelinked masons claimed here there is zero reason to elim like eliming I think throws if they are town

[Makhaira]

oh shit my NAs:

N1: Seven
N2: Wam
N3: Seven
N4: Seven

yes I was a total seven simp this game I'm not ashamed

[Makhaira]

I'm told the loudness causes results, targets, or other results to be posted in the thread at phase starts or ends.

typo'd here I meant to say "I'm told the loudness causes results, targets, or other information* to be posted in the thread at phase starts or ends.

[Makhaira]

super short version of my reads on adum and wam are like wam is more suss by claimed NA play and adum is more suss by dayplay, especially early day play. Theres more nuance to it I may add more before deadline but I want to get this baseline out before I flip. Obviously anyone in 2v1 endgame needs to seriously re-read all the flipped townslots parting thoughts and really consider them but in appropriate context

[madge]

Mak, just so you know, the formatting error technically had you unvote - unless it didn't? I am unsure, so would appreciate you re-vote

[Makhaira]

I have thoughts about how to sort thea and fred if scum pussies out but I am not going to discuss them to give scum counterplay ideas

[Makhaira]

Mak, just so you know, the formatting error technically had you unvote

roger captain, important nuace

Vote: No Elim

[AdumbroDeus]

I have thoughts about how to sort thea and fred if scum pussies out but I am not going to discuss them to give scum counterplay ideas

I'm gonna disagree here. There are things that aren't good to discuss right now but the only way to convince the last mafia to play nice is the threat that if they don't play along they auto-lose.

[AdumbroDeus]

On that note, I'm fine ending the day here. I think all the positions have been clarified and everyone's said their piece.

[Makhaira]

I think if mafia doesnt elim thea and wam their EV plummets dramatically especially if they are indy lovers but hey what does scum care what I think right?

[Makhaira]

thea and fred*

[madge]

Madge is both perfect and merciful!

Votals:
Wam - 1 - Fred
No Elim - 2 - Wam, mak

Not voting: Adumb, Thea

There are 5 players alive, 3 to vote out.

Night 6 falls at 4pm China time today, which is about four and a half hours from now: https://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/6 ... ed-day-end

[AdumbroDeus]

I think if mafia doesnt elim thea and wam their EV plummets dramatically especially if they are indy lovers but hey what does scum care what I think right?

Ya, that's why I'm playing it like this. If I'm wrong on Thea and Fredd I owe them apology dances though.

I think it's just us two til Wam gets up, you good with me hammering no elim?