Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D3]

[Santygrass]

Why do you think Moody is scum?

If not moody which alot do you think would be scum?

[AdumbroDeus]

There is about 1 hour of day I will be awake for if any one has any more questions for me.

You should probably start by actually voting moody.

[Santygrass]

I will self pres vote if needed but of all the POE JC is my top town read.

I'm thinking outside my towncore.and yes paired scum/indies is possible for thea and Fred but think we can solve that later in game and I think it's unlikely.

Town

JC - most town jc has ever looked I find it weird that's who thea has gone for
Moody - think thier reactions to the claim stuff show a desire to solve.
Mak - feels Town but within scum range
Bessie - see previous post
Santy - I think they are lying about having a vig shot to give them cover being caught shooting someone later. See previous post about how they didn't flag back to adum with a vig shot its not mathematically optimal to no elim.
Somi - interactions with claim are weird.

Scum

Vote somi

This is where they vote for somi

unofficiall Votals:
Wam - 5 - Bessie, Santygrass, Adum, moody, somi
JC - 5 - Thea, Fred, Seven, wam, makhira
Santy - 1 - jc


11 players alive and still 7 to hammer

And this later when they have to self pres and switch to jc

unvote

Vote somi

Here they go back to somi (kinda still is self pressing because they never stopped being lead wagon)

unofficial Votals:
Wam - 5 - Bessie, Santygrass, Adum, moody, somi
JC - 1 - Fred,
somi - 4 - Thea, Seven, wam, makhira
Santy - 1 - JC

11 players alive and 7 to hammer

unvote

Vote seven


Pulling this whilst bessie is at work and unable to confirm or deny screams power wolfing seven

Not with that attitude. Will move as needed

Something unbiased please look at this and tell me if this read feels genuine or is maybe just an excuse to unvote / try to make something else happen. Could see this happening in w/w wagons :curtain:

I feel like scum!Wam jumping on vanity wagons against his partner and Seven over a legit counter wagon on a town slot is kinda unlikely? I think scum!Wam would have found an excuse to reluctant vote JC.

For their first vote on somi when it was vanity they said they would to JC if needed to selfpres (aka voting there reclutantly with the excuse of selfpressing despite the townread).

After the switch was made and people jumped from JC to Somi, Wam followed. And later is the Seven vote , which seems more panic/excuse to not vote somi and make the wagon smaller-ish? Tbh

But I think you are right in that scum!Wam probably had better plays maybe? Not too sure since my image od their scum game is actually struggling to have any sort of nuanced/deep thought in their reads / adjacent to just struggling with TMI.
Like, they coudl infer pretty well what happened with Seven and Adum, tracking mech stuff, but other than that the scumreads have been more shallow in comparison

[Theallieza]

Wam is actually usually power wolf or lazy Town and basically nothing in between.

[Santygrass]

In summary I think my read on Wam is that overall I see their play leaning more to the *logical* side of stuff without really seeing a heart / sensible stuff that is expected to come from town.

But regardless I reckon I could be wrong and dont hae the confidence necessary to try to sway people . So will probably just keep observing.

At the moment , with Wam and Moody voting each other, bessie's vote is the key to see which slot goes over. I would like wagons to stay this way just for the additional info and value on bessie's vote.

[Santygrass]

Wam is actually usually power wolf or lazy Town and basically nothing in between.

Hmmmmmmmm

*Noted*

[AdumbroDeus]

Huh


Snipped for relevance:

I think Wam is probably a great information yeet. My gut is that he is a miss but I'd be willing to go there over other choices.

Why are we swinging back to the slot that was competing with our red flip for elim yesterday I dont understand how wam is more likely to be scum than moody or bessie like at all

I don't get it either. Somi and Wam are very unlikely scum together (and Wam honestly has been kinda townie anyway? Like I don't even get the case on him).

But I'm suspicious of both Adum and Santy anyway so I'm skeptical of their preferred yeet.

This is a really strange progression of thoughts, from being a good informational yeet with a gutread that it's wrong to thinking Wam has just been townie.

Thea, please explain this thought progression.

[Seven]

Unvote

[Seven]

Unvote

[Santygrass]

There is about 1 hour of day I will be awake for if any one has any more questions for me.

Ping

[Seven]

@Thea and Somi, Wam is highly known for bussing, so I disagree with Thea’s assessment that he wouldn’t vote for his partner.

[Seven]

Thea and Santy*. Adum how on earth did you play AI entirely on mobile especially with your flavor format! I hate these tiny digital keyboards and screens!

[Wam]

Why do you think Moody is scum?

If not moody which alot do you think would be scum?

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

somi is the international man of mystery as usual

somi-- asks Santy about multiball, concurs with Seven on wincon phrasing, asks Thea about post restriction, distrust of Seven (and so it begins), likes Adum. +1

This is sort of stream of consciousness.

It's also a good excuse to be kinda crypticly vague all the time

I take it that means that unlike Santy, you think it is indicative?

somi

D1
post 1: early game stuff and asks Santy about multiball
post 2: concurs with wording of town wincon, asks Thea about her self-restriction
post 3: response to Seven's flavor/setup spec
post 4: response about Fred's pfp, based on previous indication it is significant
post 5: Thea's method makes interpretation difficult
post 6: disagrees with Bessie about changing pfp, defers to wam about answer to worst's fearing Bessie
post 7: response to Santy's discussion of analyzing Fred's pfp
post 8: poking worst about fear of Bessie
post 9: Thea could be hiding behind restriction, votes Fred, repeats question to worst about Bessie
post 10: RL stuff
post 11: switches vote to worst
post 12: answers Mak about voting worst
post 13: answer to JC about reasoning on Fred's pfp
post 14: votals, reply to worst saying it was a joke

Took a few posts to get going, most direct interaction was with worst re fear of Bessie.

D2
post 15: no claim or chat
post 16: surprised Bessie has so many FoSes, asks Seven about not including (at the time) implicated Adum
post 17: RL stuff
post 18: Thea channeling BF, roll with it, on board with result on Adum, likes reply from Seven about result, town reads Mak

Still not seeing much deep probing, but that may be a style thing. Final grade +0.5

Only one of these moody didn't put in a spoiler tag...

Right now I have Mak and wam as votables. Would feel more comfortable about somi if he put up a T>S list.

@moody, since you are here, why do you prefer Wam over somi?

wam I had as slightly scummy due to his thinking the beef between bessie and Seven end of D1 was TvS and scumreading bessie due to it. Their fights have become so classic, they're NAI at this point, and I think wam was trying to get rid of an influential player. Also thinking his questioning activity early on might have been demonstrative as per someone's theory about it.

somi's been more neutral to me, nothing particular sticks out as scummy enough to prefer him over wam or definitely Mak, or even JC really.

So above is all the times moody mentioned somi. Feels about the same as he's mentioned most other people. But moody has been very uncomittal about somi and alignment the whole way through.

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

medium speed post

The whole self-imposed post restriction is attention grabbing, which I would think is contra-indicated for scum. Gun to my head, I'd say it's Thea's positive reaction to bessie's reads list. Then again, +0.5 is the least possible town lean in my system.

It's also a good excuse to be kinda crypticly vague all the time?

Then why didn’t you vote for Adum!?

Because I didn't want to be the idiot who accidentally quickhammers before everyone had a chance to chime in.

Interesting! Please explain how you accept Adum as town, but not Seven for derailing Adum’s elimination!

When it comes to Seven I can't entirely silence the suspicious bastard in me wondering if he did this for the everlasting town-cred.

See moody thinking I'm a play here is crazy to me adum like you have to be kidding me like how can a townie think this

Why not vote moody then?

A glimpse into the enigmaticidiotic workings of the somi mind follows, please keep your hands inside the vehicle.

town core in no particular order
- Adum, Mak (tone as discussed already)
- Fred, Thea (I'd probably scumread Fred in isolation, but I don't think there's a way mafia!Thea would do something as audacious and risky as claiming masons D1)
high-probability town
- Seven (clearing Adum)
scares me
- Santy (super open posting that's hella townie to me, but from what I recall they did just about the same as my replacement, so I have all the paranoia)
PoE
- JC
- moody
- wam
- bessie
Yeah, look at me calling all these kettles black, but the PoE group didn't leave much of an impression on me so the differences are rather marginal. JC feels a little more townish than the rest but I can't justify this vague impression. I'll go back to reread these people a bit, but for the moment it seems like picking any would likely hit scum and we're one NK ahead so the order isn't critical.
...
Yes, I hear the little alarm bell saying some kind of nuke will go off N2 to completely turn me on my head.

These are the only mention or interactions with moody, somi made all game or at least the only ones i found. This strikes me as a suspiciously low amount of interaction especially compared to moodys the other way and how somi has interacted with everyone else.

vote moody

Adum is a bulletproof* godfather. He and moody are on one team. Wam and somi are on the other. He’s possibly lying about the bulletproof and there simply wasn’t a kill N1. This explains why Wam was simultaneously watching the “kill” target. It’s possible Santy is in this somewhere since he has pretty much hard core been defending scum all game. No offense if you’re town Santy, but it’s been rather extreme at this point.

Adum, the reason why Thea and I are trying to figure out the different ways you can be scum isn’t that we are in lala theorycrafting land, it’s that you’re really just quite suspicious, and it doesn’t line up with the “town” result. I’ll case in full all the things I find suspicious later.

I think your right for the wrong reasons again. I think as per above moody and somi are paired.

Ps this was written in stages so usual grammar error apologies.

Bessie>santy>Mak it that order for other scum.

vote moody

[AdumbroDeus]

Thea and Santy*. Adum how on earth did you play AI entirely on mobile especially with your flavor format! I hate these tiny digital keyboards and screens!

I figured that's what you meant lol

With great difficulty. I just haven't been home enough to do it on my desktop so I had to make due.

[AdumbroDeus]

Wam shouldn't be yeeted until Thea answers.

If they don't, we should yeet moody. I'll explain my concern after they answer unless I have followup questions.

[AdumbroDeus]

Getting into shul now (yes I'm running late, MTA clearly hates me), I'll be back after, likely about an hour.

[Seven]

Speculation -- This can be ignored, I'm just thinking out loud:

1. The compulsive element and NAR element of bessie's claim are odd.

2. Bessie may have made these up to make her night actions look less suspicious.
-Mak was inquiring why bessie used her paranoid action at all => justify it by confirming it is conclusive
-Bessie initially stated that she didn't want to target someone else in case she died.
--However, if she died, she wouldn't have to worry about that because her action wouldn't be posted.
--Mak was inquiring why bessie targeted Adum => justify by saying her action is prioritized over the night kill, justifying the above reasoning.

3. These do not seem like the sort of justifications that bessie would feel inclined to fabricate, or at least have put herself in a position where she needed to. If they were fabricated, then they likely came from a partner who is inclined to make such justifications, or whose planning put her in a position where she needed to.

4. Adum is the only player who has the personality type to have created a scenario as bessie's partner.

5. I initially discounted and Adum/bessie team because in this scenario, Adum being targeted by the publishing cop would have been a deliberate scum plan.
a) I don't think bessie would ever agree to a plan that involved Adum pretending to replace out.
b) The mods got involved, meaning it wasn't just theater.

6. However, it is possible that they may have just flubbed it up and were expecting something different. And so Adum's reaction was genuine but from a scum POV.

7. In this scenario, I would imagine that Adum/bessie didn't use a N1 kill, either because they didn't have one, or it is temporally delayed.

8. Additionally, Adum/bessie is aware of an outside kill source. So Adum in this case either pretended to be bulletproof, or really did have a BP vest and was targeted by the other-scum kill N1.

9. Adum and bessie may be lovers of some sort hence why he made it known that he is BP (so killers won't target him) and why he wants to ensure that bessie is protected tonight.

[Theallieza]

Huh


Snipped for relevance:

I think Wam is probably a great information yeet. My gut is that he is a miss but I'd be willing to go there over other choices.

Why are we swinging back to the slot that was competing with our red flip for elim yesterday I dont understand how wam is more likely to be scum than moody or bessie like at all

I don't get it either. Somi and Wam are very unlikely scum together (and Wam honestly has been kinda townie anyway? Like I don't even get the case on him).

But I'm suspicious of both Adum and Santy anyway so I'm skeptical of their preferred yeet.

This is a really strange progression of thoughts, from being a good informational yeet with a gutread that it's wrong to thinking Wam has just been townie.

Thea, please explain this thought progression.

I think yeeting Wam potentially gives info about a bunch of people, but on okay, especially this phase, I think he is 70-80% town. Don't see what's so strange about it

[Theallieza]

On play

[Seven]

On play

What about his play is town? I think you're putting too much stock into the fact that he Watched Adum, and think you should ignore it.

-The wagon vibe at the end of D2 is suggestive of W/W wagons. Somi wasn't fighting that hard against it, suggesting that his counterwagon (Wam) was probably on a partner.
-Wam tried to move to me at the end of the day based on weird reasoning.
-His reason for scum reading bessie is very wolfy. Town!bessie would not claim right away. He's maintained his reasoning even after this has been addressed.
-He slipped that he knew this was correct.

He's playing in his scum meta. Read his scum meta here: https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php ... &start=827

[AdumbroDeus]

I think yeeting Wam potentially gives info about a bunch of people, but on okay, especially this phase, I think he is 70-80% town. Don't see what's so strange about it

"Gut read" is soft support for his townieness, and you were actively supporting the yeet at the time.

And then, after Seven joined and planned to push people towards the yeet, you actively disapprove of it, say it's from play, and take issue in part because the yeet you supported for information is preferred by two people you're suspicious of, people you'd presumably want information on, and people who already preferred a Wam yeet before you made the comment.

Now you're back to saying it's a good informational yeet.

unvote

[AdumbroDeus]

On play

What about his play is town? I think you're putting too much stock into the fact that he Watched Adum, and think you should ignore it.

-The wagon vibe at the end of D2 is suggestive of W/W wagons. Somi wasn't fighting that hard against it, suggesting that his counterwagon (Wam) was probably on a partner.
-Wam tried to move to me at the end of the day based on weird reasoning.
-His reason for scum reading bessie is very wolfy. Town!bessie would not claim right away. He's maintained his reasoning even after this has been addressed.
-He slipped that he knew this was correct.

He's playing in his scum meta. Read his scum meta here: https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php ... &start=827

Hey Seven, did you happen to read Bingo mafia back in the day?

[AdumbroDeus]

EBWOP: Corrected for errant quote tag:

I think yeeting Wam potentially gives info about a bunch of people, but on okay, especially this phase, I think he is 70-80% town. Don't see what's so strange about it

"Gut read" is soft support for his townieness, and you were actively supporting the yeet at the time.

And then, after Seven joined and planned to push people towards the yeet, you actively disapprove of it, say it's from play, and take issue in part because the yeet you supported for information is preferred by two people you're suspicious of, people you'd presumably want information on, and people who already preferred a Wam yeet before you made the comment.

Now you're back to saying it's a good informational yeet.

unvote

[Freddino18]

My last post before deadline. Adum is not scum. I put this at the same confidence level as I had for Millerizer on Madge.

[AdumbroDeus]

Or Mak, since Seven dipped. Did you happen to read Bingo Mafia back in the day?