Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D3]

[AdumbroDeus]

I dont mean tapped as in tapping out of the game, I mean you are "tapped out" as a power role. Your last two posts about your night actions state you did nothing last night and that you can't do anything else for the rest of the game, so you are functionally claiming to now be a VT. Given this, there is no risk to the town of losing an active PR to NKs based on your full claim. You are suggesting you have no powers left to use, so you might as well full claim and give us everything you did do in full detail

Mak, you really need to learn to read between the lines. What I'm saying is preserving ambiguity about whether I am tapped out in regards to the passive power I already claimed is basically the only useful thing I can do with said power now. And the only way I'll explain is on death's door for setup analysis.

And I never used any active powers.

[AdumbroDeus]

You still haven't answered my question Santy, why did you protect me?

[Theallieza]

Why?

Assuming Adum was the NK target, then it is extremely unlikely that any other scum would bother using their powers on him. Wam evidently did use a power on Adum N1 since he knew the name of bessie's role, and it is obscure enough that the only way he likely could have got it correct is if either 1) bessie and Wam are scum together; 2) somi rolecopped bessie and knew her role or 3) Wam did in fact use a Watcher power on Adum and part of the team that did the NK.

1) Would mean that two mafia, both Wam and bessie, targeted Adum separately with their powers AND tried to NK him. This seems... extremely implausible.
2) Would mean that Somi did not rolecop Mak, so the only way he could know Mak's exact role is if Somi and Mak are mafia. So the only team that works is Somi/Mak/Wam.
3) Wam and Somi are not mafia together.

The failure of this reasoning is

1. it's not obscure, it's just the actual standard modifier for doing what Bessie did if he looked it up on the mafiascum wiki.

It's a hell of a guess considering that multiple people had already claimed loud, and there was an extensive discussion about the cop being "loud" specifically, before Wam's claim. The only role that has this modifier, as currently claimed is bessie's.

2. It wasn't Bessie's full rolename.
3. Missing Seven's "loud" and getting Bessie's "publishing" is inconsistent.

As I've said earlier, I don't think full rolenames are ever going to be revealed during gameplay. We have seen evidence of this from both the flips and the mod announcements we have already received.

[AdumbroDeus]

It's a hell of a guess considering that multiple people had already claimed loud, and there was an extensive discussion about the cop being "loud" specifically, before Wam's claim. The only role that has this modifier, as currently claimed is bessie's.

Wam's disengagement was a significant part of the case against him, remember? Especially because a lot of the talk can be interpreted as informal references of what it does rather than hard claiming rolenames and power names.

2. It wasn't Bessie's full rolename.
3. Missing Seven's "loud" and getting Bessie's "publishing" is inconsistent.

As I've said earlier, I don't think full rolenames are ever going to be revealed during gameplay. We have seen evidence of this from both the flips and the mod announcements we have already received.

1. Is this based on JC's flip then?

2. This doesn't explain the inconsistency, why are the same functional modifiers hidden for Seven but shown for Bessie?

[Theallieza]

It's a hell of a guess considering that multiple people had already claimed loud, and there was an extensive discussion about the cop being "loud" specifically, before Wam's claim. The only role that has this modifier, as currently claimed is bessie's.

Wam's disengagement was a significant part of the case against him, remember? Especially because a lot of the talk can be interpreted as informal references of what it does rather than hard claiming rolenames and power names.

2. It wasn't Bessie's full rolename.
3. Missing Seven's "loud" and getting Bessie's "publishing" is inconsistent.

As I've said earlier, I don't think full rolenames are ever going to be revealed during gameplay. We have seen evidence of this from both the flips and the mod announcements we have already received.

1. Is this based on JC's flip then?

JC's flip, other rolenames we've seen in the SoD results. The Worst's role also did not have any modifiers on it either. It seems very likely that JC was loud, if nothing else.

2. This doesn't explain the inconsistency, why are the same functional modifiers hidden for Seven but shown for Bessie?

I don't know. I'm hoping bessie can provide some insight.

Ultimately, as I said before, I think it implies that either that Wam and bessie are scum together and she is covering for him (and did very strange night actions) or Wam and Mak are together and somi rolecopped bessie. Or Wam's result is real and he is not with Somi.

[AdumbroDeus]

It's a hell of a guess considering that multiple people had already claimed loud, and there was an extensive discussion about the cop being "loud" specifically, before Wam's claim. The only role that has this modifier, as currently claimed is bessie's.

Wam's disengagement was a significant part of the case against him, remember? Especially because a lot of the talk can be interpreted as informal references of what it does rather than hard claiming rolenames and power names.

As I've said earlier, I don't think full rolenames are ever going to be revealed during gameplay. We have seen evidence of this from both the flips and the mod announcements we have already received.

1. Is this based on JC's flip then?

JC's flip, other rolenames we've seen in the SoD results. The Worst's role also did not have any modifiers on it either. It seems very likely that JC was loud, if nothing else.

I see no reason to assume theworst's role had modifiers.

Potentially with JC, but given this would require JC to target the same player as Seven both nights, I'm skeptical. On the other hand, seems like only somebody really minimally engaged or suspicious that Seven was gonna carry the NK and believing his publishing was a power modifier not a role modifier would target her last night.

Or it could be just that JC isn't named "loud JOAT" suggesting that publishing in the abilities is tied to the specific abilities he used.

The first two explanations both have their weirdnesses.

2. This doesn't explain the inconsistency, why are the same functional modifiers hidden for Seven but shown for Bessie?

I don't know. I'm hoping bessie can provide some insight.

Ultimately, as I said before, I think it implies that either that Wam and bessie are scum together and she is covering for him (and did very strange night actions) or Wam and Mak are together and somi rolecopped bessie. Or Wam's result is real and he is not with Somi.

That's why I asked Bessie for her full rolename. As I said, I think this inconsistency suggests Wam did not in fact role observe me and the results were cobbled together from public information and a good guess.

[madge]

Apologies all, I made an error with the flip. It should have been Loud Joat, not just joat. It's now fixed.

[AdumbroDeus]

So, we can safely say that Wam lied about role watching me now, right?

[Santygrass]

You still haven't answered my question Santy, why did you protect me?

My theory was (and still somewhat is) that you were JoaT and that you used something lik hider/self doc or whatever to avoid death.

Then for mafia kills I think after yesterday the targets would be between Seven/Thea/You . Thea is tinfoilable and also clears Fred if town and yada yada, so was mostly playong a 50/50 between Seven and you.
I chose you because in the case I was wrong and Seven was killed, I had more confidence in that we would be able to understand each other/communicate more easily, and with Seven being loud we would know what they did even if they died (this is a plus but didnt weigh in much honestly, it was moreso the dayphase potential to me)

[Santygrass]

Thanks. I think this rules out a Wam/Somi pairing except in the exact combination where Mak is also mafia.

Why?

Assuming Adum was the NK target, then it is extremely unlikely that any other scum would bother using their powers on him. Wam evidently did use a power on Adum N1 since he knew the name of bessie's role, and it is obscure enough that the only way he likely could have got it correct is if either 1) bessie and Wam are scum together; 2) somi rolecopped bessie and knew her role or 3) Wam did in fact use a Watcher power on Adum and part of the team that did the NK.

1) Would mean that two mafia, both Wam and bessie, targeted Adum separately with their powers AND tried to NK him. This seems... extremely implausible.
2) Would mean that Somi did not rolecop Mak, so the only way he could know Mak's exact role is if Somi and Mak are mafia. So the only team that works is Somi/Mak/Wam.
3) Wam and Somi are not mafia together.

First off, I wouldnt assume Adum was the nk target of mafia. (possble that he wasnt the target, or they were target of the SK). So already a hole there imo.

But most of all, why scenario 3 discards Wam and Somi as a a team?? I feel like Im not getting something still

[AdumbroDeus]

You still haven't answered my question Santy, why did you protect me?

My theory was (and still somewhat is) that you were JoaT and that you used something lik hider/self doc or whatever to avoid death.

Then for mafia kills I think after yesterday the targets would be between Seven/Thea/You . Thea is tinfoilable and also clears Fred if town and yada yada, so was mostly playong a 50/50 between Seven and you.
I chose you because in the case I was wrong and Seven was killed, I had more confidence in that we would be able to understand each other/communicate more easily, and with Seven being loud we would know what they did even if they died (this is a plus but didnt weigh in much honestly, it was moreso the dayphase potential to me)

While that makes sense, docing somebody claiming the ability to protect themselves from NKs is a bad choice. Absorbing a NK is the literal point of their role.

[Theallieza]

Why?

Assuming Adum was the NK target, then it is extremely unlikely that any other scum would bother using their powers on him. Wam evidently did use a power on Adum N1 since he knew the name of bessie's role, and it is obscure enough that the only way he likely could have got it correct is if either 1) bessie and Wam are scum together; 2) somi rolecopped bessie and knew her role or 3) Wam did in fact use a Watcher power on Adum and part of the team that did the NK.

1) Would mean that two mafia, both Wam and bessie, targeted Adum separately with their powers AND tried to NK him. This seems... extremely implausible.
2) Would mean that Somi did not rolecop Mak, so the only way he could know Mak's exact role is if Somi and Mak are mafia. So the only team that works is Somi/Mak/Wam.
3) Wam and Somi are not mafia together.

First off, I wouldnt assume Adum was the nk target of mafia. (possble that he wasnt the target, or they were target of the SK). So already a hole there imo.

But most of all, why scenario 3 discards Wam and Somi as a a team?? I feel like Im not getting something still

Why would scum watch their own NK target?

Who did you target N1, btw?

[AdumbroDeus]

Why?

Assuming Adum was the NK target, then it is extremely unlikely that any other scum would bother using their powers on him. Wam evidently did use a power on Adum N1 since he knew the name of bessie's role, and it is obscure enough that the only way he likely could have got it correct is if either 1) bessie and Wam are scum together; 2) somi rolecopped bessie and knew her role or 3) Wam did in fact use a Watcher power on Adum and part of the team that did the NK.

1) Would mean that two mafia, both Wam and bessie, targeted Adum separately with their powers AND tried to NK him. This seems... extremely implausible.
2) Would mean that Somi did not rolecop Mak, so the only way he could know Mak's exact role is if Somi and Mak are mafia. So the only team that works is Somi/Mak/Wam.
3) Wam and Somi are not mafia together.

First off, I wouldnt assume Adum was the nk target of mafia. (possble that he wasnt the target, or they were target of the SK). So already a hole there imo.

But most of all, why scenario 3 discards Wam and Somi as a a team?? I feel like Im not getting something still

That's another issue with it, it falls apart if Mak's theory is correct and "Mafia" aren't the killing faction, winning instead by some parity rule.

But I think the more overt problem is that given Madge just corrected the flip and I think it's pretty much impossible if he role watched me, that he would've gotten "publishing" but not loud.

[Santygrass]

3) Wam did in fact use a Watcher power on Adum and is not part of the team that did the NK.

EWBOP

Ah gotcha. Yes this is true if you assume Adum was the nk target. But dont get why somi is related to this scenario hahaha. Well I think I get it. Is the fact of the knowledge of the publishing + mak role that makes it so impossible of scum somi to know both I guess.

Even then, I think the watcher claim is true, or at least that the observed the roles of who acted on Adum (knowledge of two joats + publishing). I believe is highly possible the claim could be true and them still be scum.

Even if I want to get a little crazy it could be a scum power addrd to the people they kill . It is reaching, but mech on closed games is a help to solve the game, shouldnt be the entire basis , which I feel is being the case.

Its been so long since I have seen any sort of social read on Wam f.e. , its all just mech. And Im still thinking that their reaction the past day didnt match up with a towny who had that info seeing Seven reaction / reveal of info and not saying anything. Perspective and readwise just off.

[Santygrass]

And also the no cop on n1, to cop the mason on n2 which didnt align with their approach from before, just because it was better "objectively" also hard to believe for myself

[Santygrass]

You still haven't answered my question Santy, why did you protect me?

My theory was (and still somewhat is) that you were JoaT and that you used something lik hider/self doc or whatever to avoid death.

Then for mafia kills I think after yesterday the targets would be between Seven/Thea/You . Thea is tinfoilable and also clears Fred if town and yada yada, so was mostly playong a 50/50 between Seven and you.
I chose you because in the case I was wrong and Seven was killed, I had more confidence in that we would be able to understand each other/communicate more easily, and with Seven being loud we would know what they did even if they died (this is a plus but didnt weigh in much honestly, it was moreso the dayphase potential to me)

While that makes sense, docing somebody claiming the ability to protect themselves from NKs is a bad choice. Absorbing a NK is the literal point of their role.

There is no world in where you are able to do that infinetely. If scum targeted you n1 and youpopped a BP , commuted, or whatever, they should do it again n2.

Mostly because is highly likely that sort of abilities are one use, or non consecutive. Otherwise is a hard counter to the most important ability of scum

[Santygrass]

Assuming Adum was the NK target, then it is extremely unlikely that any other scum would bother using their powers on him. Wam evidently did use a power on Adum N1 since he knew the name of bessie's role, and it is obscure enough that the only way he likely could have got it correct is if either 1) bessie and Wam are scum together; 2) somi rolecopped bessie and knew her role or 3) Wam did in fact use a Watcher power on Adum and part of the team that did the NK.

1) Would mean that two mafia, both Wam and bessie, targeted Adum separately with their powers AND tried to NK him. This seems... extremely implausible.
2) Would mean that Somi did not rolecop Mak, so the only way he could know Mak's exact role is if Somi and Mak are mafia. So the only team that works is Somi/Mak/Wam.
3) Wam and Somi are not mafia together.

First off, I wouldnt assume Adum was the nk target of mafia. (possble that he wasnt the target, or they were target of the SK). So already a hole there imo.

But most of all, why scenario 3 discards Wam and Somi as a a team?? I feel like Im not getting something still

Why would scum watch their own NK target?

Who did you target N1, btw?

I holstered n1. I was being truthful. Mostly because if I died seeing my role could lead to wrong mech assumptions but having the holstered (disguised as vig) could give clearance

[AdumbroDeus]

My theory was (and still somewhat is) that you were JoaT and that you used something lik hider/self doc or whatever to avoid death.

Then for mafia kills I think after yesterday the targets would be between Seven/Thea/You . Thea is tinfoilable and also clears Fred if town and yada yada, so was mostly playong a 50/50 between Seven and you.
I chose you because in the case I was wrong and Seven was killed, I had more confidence in that we would be able to understand each other/communicate more easily, and with Seven being loud we would know what they did even if they died (this is a plus but didnt weigh in much honestly, it was moreso the dayphase potential to me)

While that makes sense, docing somebody claiming the ability to protect themselves from NKs is a bad choice. Absorbing a NK is the literal point of their role.

There is no world in where you are able to do that infinetely. If scum targeted you n1 and youpopped a BP , commuted, or whatever, they should do it again n2.

Mostly because is highly likely that sort of abilities are one use, or non consecutive. Otherwise is a hard counter to the most important ability of scum

You don't know that. This is a high powered game and scum's solution might be something like a strongman which you can't help with.

Alternatively I might have a weak protection, have done my job, better me than somebody with more power.

Either way, unless killing scum has a solution or is decently sure I can't repeat it, it's extremely unlikely they come back to me.

I'd ask you keep further speculations on this to yourself for now.

[moody7277]

Did bessie have a meta of not bussing?

Friend, me ignoring that is what won you guys Dancers. If this is the main point in you decoupling Bessie from somi, then I can agree with it; was already grading her at a +1.5 or so anyway.

Has anyone else seen holstering SKs?

One of the best players I've seen (SDK) won as a SK and only fired once. Was also a Halloween game btw (DJ's costume party, for those who know). I am not opposed to the idea of there being a third party in the game, but SK seems much lower probability due to the low number of kills (and you said that), and it would effectively be a Godfather role for the TA.

[bessie]

Daily bark!

Heavy posters, can you show some mercy to those of us that can only play once a day? It’s hard for me to play the way that I like playing if I'm always 10 pages behind.

In this moment I think there should be one scum between bessied and Wam, so waiting to see the info they bring.

Mak should be cleared in most scenarios? (Somi copped them)

I don’t think this is true, I’m pretty sure somi copped me (and he was fishing to see if I was paranoid or insane). If he didn’t, someone on his team did. Either way, I’m wondering why you’re so quick to clear Mak for this?

Note to self: Wam also knew my role and I don’t think it was something he could have guessed.

Unless someone claims to have killed JC and be town , moody has an innocent of guilt regarding that kill

This is also interesting to me, that you didn’t consider that moody might be a strongman.

what the hell is the point of a variable reliability publishing cop when that cop knows what "mode" they are cycling through? its like a normal cop with extra steps

@ bessie is your ability compulsory or can you choose not to use it on any given night?

have you targeted adum both nights?

1. I know the mode, you don’t and I think this is what makes it interesting, and weaker because it isn’t useful every night (and this makes it a non-bastard role to which I alluded on D2).
2. I don’t feel like answering this question.
3. Yes.

Somi targeting me with rolecop proves I am unpaired with somi. obv this could still be multiball so Im not full cleared mechanically but I think that and my play makes me pretty obvtown

I thought you were above this kind of flawed logic. And why did you target Wam?

Vote: Makhaira

Bessie what sanities were your cops N1 &N2?

How about you read my content?

I guess the JC kill had to be mafia. Possible reasons are hard dangerous PR read, redirected, or just they felt they didn't have better targets.

I think probably trying to dodge power roles, but it could have been redirected.

@bessie I want you to elaborate what your role does / cycles that you know in full detail

I don’t feel like elaborating at this time.

Another possibility is that this isnt a conventional mafia that has a nightkill during the night or is doing other stuff. But if thats the case, JC kill should've come from town.

So for us to reach there is of utmost importance that if its the case the responsible for murdering JC if town claims.

Noting because I partially agree with this. There could be an indie role with a kill.

The worst has been voted out. They were Dr Louise Banks, Traffic Analyst, aligned with Town.

bessie and ducky.png


Ok. Everyone sucks except me.


FOS everyone that voted for the worst.


FOS Fred for all the reasons I have previously stated.


FOS Thea for popping in to save Fred, but not returning to confirm that you have mod verified information that he is town.


I have nothing that I feel like claiming at this time.

@bessie why did uou not claim your cop result here?

Why would I claim a town result? This is an odd question. I was the first post of the day. Why would I claim in the first post of the day even if I had a scum result??

FoS: Wam

Possibly mafia and SK are alternate even/odd kills, or possibly mafia has just had terrible luck and had both of their kills blocked.

I think Thea is right about the serial killer.
Mafia could be looking for someone to get their full abilities (would fit with somi’s role cop). Or they could have a group delayed kill like a poisoner or arsonist.

As explained earlier, we don't actually know if Somi targeted Mak, if Mak was his partner Somi could've gotten the role directly from Mak and lied about their target.

That is true! Just more of a complex scum play and rather risky. For example if somi does that and mak was watched or them tracked, then not only they are caught as lying scum, it also heavily implies Mak as scum, so its not worth lying and I think its unlikely for scum to try to pull off. Specially on short notice (the claim of somi was asked near EoD)

Literally this. If I didn't want somi elim'd last phase, I could have made that happen. There was zero need for somi to last minute claim a "clear" on me knowing he would flip scum to try to give me endgame equity. Its a ridiculous all in strategy that the game state in no way warranted. If somi was my mate, Wam would have been elim'd yesterday, full stop.

Where did somi “clear” you? He only revealed your role. I don’t like your progression and I think it is scummy.
And hey, is that a “would I do this as scum” claim?? Bonus!

Vote: Bessie

I really think it's just bessie here for somi's mate. Long and the short of it is I am firmly convinced she is scum based on play and I think her role is literally designed to create disinformation for the scum team. Her being informed of her status night to night is extremely scum coded to me. This info directly assists the scum cop with knowing how to get perfect fake results on slots with built on excuses for why the results aren't reliable. I think bessie was told about her cycling reliability on purpose to help the scum team target certain slots when paranoid, certain slots when insane, certain slots when naive, etc. but that the mods didn't intend for her to actually claim having that knowledge, and rather we're hoping or expecting that she would simply fake claim a "publishing cop" that "doesn't know" her actual reliability for plausible deniability for the eventually scenario when a slot flips differently from what her investigations are returning

Your reasons for your vote are scummy. You are voting for me because you think my role is scummy? And you are trying to second guess the mod’s intent? You are trying to second guess MADGE OF ALL PEOPLE???

Scum has night chat only. Bessie doesn’t know the order of her sanities. She’s informed at the start of day what it was the previous night. Somi was communicating with her in that feeling paranoid post.

[insert pic of cynical bessie]

From what I've seen, bessie tends to tunnel one person at a time. Having seen none of that this game, I highly suspect her as a scum candidate.

Interesting, please explain your logic.

I am leaning toward a situation where we only have two mafia, somi and moody, and one serial killer, probably Adum.

What do you think about a mafia supporter?

@bessie: Can you see any difference in how your role might differ from one with a Loud modifier?

I think if I were loud, the mod voice would say “[bessie] targeted [Adum]”.

SKs generally can't holster.

I’ve been a serial killer that could shoot or withhold. I think. I would need to look it up and the xkcd archive is not easily searchable.

We elim bessie today. Mak is never wrong when he’s like this. Adum could you claim though? It would help with the paranoia.

Why the pressure on Adum to claim? Suspicious.

There is no fixing this paranoia.


You both are full up on confirmation bias and adding increasingly unlikely attributes game attributes to make it work, then treating that the theory exists as proof that it's what happened without any mech or social evidence it's what happened.

So is Mak. Are you suspicious of him for it too?
[I am rushing through the daily bark so you might be.]

1) Would mean that two mafia, both Wam and bessie, targeted Adum separately with their powers AND tried to NK him. This seems... extremely implausible.
2) Would mean that Somi did not rolecop Mak, so the only way he could know Mak's exact role is if Somi and Mak are mafia. So the only team that works is Somi/Mak/Wam.
3) Wam and Somi are not mafia together.

Wam and somi both knew my role (Wam from claim, somi from role fishing). Why not Wam got my role, and somi was doing the role fishing to find out my sanity? And I totally think Wam is a good enough player to get “Publishing Cop” and figure out it was me, and that I had to be paranoid or insane.


Sorry that this post is kinda rushed but content overload and I’ve already been typing for over an hour. I’ll read more carefully after I cook Hoku’s dinner.

[AdumbroDeus]

There is no fixing this paranoia.


You both are full up on confirmation bias and adding increasingly unlikely attributes game attributes to make it work, then treating that the theory exists as proof that it's what happened without any mech or social evidence it's what happened.

So is Mak. Are you suspicious of him for it too?
[I am rushing through the daily bark so you might be.]

You're reversing it, I don't currently think this is AI and am the most suspicious of Mak out of them for unrelated reasons. Them doing this last game and it reading very similar actually helps quiet down the little "Seven is actually Indy" voice in my head.

Thea is honestly jumping right from any possible mechanical reason that would make it possible for me to be scum directly to assuming it's true. Seven doesn't understand my thought process towards bastardry and just took my "could only be scum if Indy" thought process void of context.

My analysis right now is disappointing, not scum.

What do you think about a mafia supporter?

Unfamiliar, is that some traitor variation?

I’ve been a serial killer that could shoot or withhold. I think. I would need to look it up and the xkcd archive is not easily searchable.

Well, I guess, I've never seen it but I've also never rolled SK and the meta I recall was vigs withhold shot first day cause SKs are compulsory.

[Seven]

@bessie

Why the pressure on Adum to claim? Suspicious.

Because it’s a hidden variable and I don’t like hidden variables. I have more faith in my ability to solve with all information than I do in the value of PRs. I’m surprised you don’t know that about me by now.

IMG_1867.jpeg (153.94 KiB) Viewed 75 times

[Seven]

@bessie if somi was fishing, why did you validate it by crumbing in response to him?

[bessie]

What do you think about a mafia supporter?

Unfamiliar, is that some traitor variation?

Yes, something like two mafia that know they have a supporter but don’t know who it is. The supporter wins with mafia. The mafia might get a power if they target/recruit the supporter.

What do you think about something like an arsonist?

@bessie if somi was fishing, why did you validate it by crumbing in response to him?

TBH I didn’t catch the rolefishing at the time.
The daily bark that day was a 7 page catch up. With the games getting more content lately, my daily catch up post has turned into a single read-and-reply (and still taking 1-2 hours) without the reflection and tying my thoughts together that I used to put in to my posts. I saw the “paranoid” and I used it as an opportunity to send a breadcrumb to you. It was always for you, but I’m sure you knew that. The second breadcrumb was for Adam.

[Wam]

But I think the more overt problem is that given Madge just corrected the flip and I think it's pretty much impossible if he role watched me, that he would've gotten "publishing" but not loud.

Snipped down.

Two issues with this

1) seven appears to have the exact same set of powers so they can watch someone and say what they got and if they agree with mine

2) in this world where I faked my n1 result. What did I do N1?