Halloween 2024: The Time Travellers' Party [D2]

[Santygrass]

So.claim time,

Town JOAT (yep I know).

So I have flavour that says there are 3 JOATs not.going to claim the role name but Seven should know WHO I am. Interestingly any mention of alignment of the 3 JOATs is conspicuously absent from my flabour.

I also am not loud but as a result some.of my one shots are less useful than classic ones.

Last night I used a role watcher power on Adum. Hope being that I would see the kill and have data down the line that if someone claimed RB and I saw RB visit adum its good evidence. I also wanted to keep my more useful.ones for later in the game.

So adum was visited by

Publishing cop
Jack of all trades
Jack of all trades

That doesn't Inclue me!! I checked.

Hence why as soon as I saw the result on adum I voted.

I have questions to answer in thread am working through it along with fleshing out my bessie read.

Just to clarify... Did you see a night kill on Adum? Would your role have seen that?

Last post. This was after Fred relied some reads on thread and said thea would elaborate. Cricket sounds since then , aknowledging Wam's claim and not much to say about it ¿?

I struggle to see the mason team being also with a scum third partner. But if someone told me that thea was intentionally scum siding, I would believe them

[Santygrass]

As I openly su thea behaviour. I will also state that I wont be shooting between thea/Fred tonight .
Want to avoid a possible excuse of one of them RBing me 'to protect of my threat' . And also because well, unless its multiball they should be town :wowee:

[Freddino18]

Aite, good enough for me

[AdumbroDeus]

I disagree. Madge has the same philosophy as me as not being able to solve the game through flavor claims. In Stranger Things Halloween for example, town was mixed with villains and good guys. For example, I was Vecna, Somi was Max and we were both town doctors.

I looked at that game and that was a trip lol, but it says something about character choice and attribute prioritization which, I'm not sure if that counts.

But the usual way to not solve the game through flavor claims is safeclaims. Where you get utility is in games built consistently where you can figure out a role not fitting a flavor claim.

(I think we discussed this last Halloween lol)

[AdumbroDeus]

Still waiting for answers on why people didn't suggest no eliming last game day.

Acknowledging Santy's answer and I think my answer is obvious.

[bessie]

Daily bark.
Can the heavy posters slow down a bit? This is far above our normal level for xkcd and the veterans are going to get overwhelmed quickly.

Quick readthrough and replies.

So.claim time,

Town JOAT (yep I know).

So I have flavour that says there are 3 JOATs not.going to claim the role name but Seven should know WHO I am. Interestingly any mention of alignment of the 3 JOATs is conspicuously absent from my flabour.

I also am not loud but as a result some.of my one shots are less useful than classic ones.

Last night I used a role watcher power on Adum. Hope being that I would see the kill and have data down the line that if someone claimed RB and I saw RB visit adum its good evidence. I also wanted to keep my more useful.ones for later in the game.

So adum was visited by

Publishing cop
Jack of all trades
Jack of all trades

That doesn't Inclue me!! I checked.

Hence why as soon as I saw the result on adum I voted.

I have questions to answer in thread am working through it along with fleshing out my bessie read.

I acknowledge this claim. I am contemplating as to which parts are true and which parts I believe are false.

Post 9 this is an odd one, bessie doing gut reads is not something that fits my meta picture of bessie, that maybe a me.issue.though. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=78903#p78903

I do this quite often. I post a Woof-Grr list without review of the game thread and add the note “no reread, from my unreliable gut” or something of the sort. Here are examples from the previous three games.
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=73635#p73635
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=65384#p65384
https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=56889#p56889

Post 18
Responds to.the scum slip. Not happy about suggestion it's outside bessies scum range agree with her there is within bessies range.

smug bessie.PNG (257.87 KiB) Viewed 180 times

Post 21
Pushes seven or.somi but doesn't think either will happen. Which is odd. I have known bessie tunnel.and be the one voice on her beliefs many times when town.

There was no way I was going to be able to write something up in time, all my tunneling was dedicated to Fred and to write up an analysis of Seven or somi would take at least an hour.

Questions for bessie

1) do you still feel.we.shpuld have elimed Fred day 1?
2) given the late claim and end of day bits who should we have swung too if you controlled all the votes?

1. Yes. If we eliminated Fred, the worst might still be alive. We wouldn’t know the worst’s alignment but he would be generating reads and content and asking questions. And, if Fred flipped town mason, Thea would be confirmed town and we could trust her reads, and not waste any investigations on either of them. If Fred didn’t flip town mason, we would have an easy yeet today.
2. I would have reluctantly swung to somitomi. Reason for not going to Seven, per xkcd tradition he was sick so he gets a little of an allowance for his lack of Zen level D1 content. Reason for “reluctant” modifier, I have a history of tunneling somi into the ground on D1 regardless of either of our alignments. See here: https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=47589#p47589
I am consciously trying to get away from this because I recognize that I do it, so I have been giving him a D1 pass even if I find him scummy. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=47858#p47858
I think it was another game that I was almost voted off on D1 because I didn’t want to vote somi on D1. But I’m done looking through old games because I’ve been working on this post for almost an hour and I’m on page 36 of 43.


Quicker readthrough.

Interesting! You suspect scum!Seven derail an almost guaranteed yeet of the strongest and towniest player in the game just for town cred! Even though if Adum is not eliminated, Adum’s alignment is not confirmed so the town cred Seven is trying for may or may not happen! I think your reasoning is scummy

Do keep in mind that this is a fringe theory rattling in my mind that I myself mostly disregarded in the same post, but yeah, Adum will in all likelyhood be night killed sometime before the game is over, at which point this gambit could pay off big time.

Noting this for now. I will think about it, but my initial reaction doesn’t change my original read.

Please lets not use the replacement request reads-wise , I think persnally it goes against the game integrity

I agree.

Madge, Bessie, and Somi actually asked around this in the scum chat of dancers before you replaced in. It would be different if it wasn't a serious request, (though something a mod I don't think can do anything about til postgame unless admitted and poses the risk that they'll get replaced before the Gambit was done), but I was absolutely serious at that point. They even asked about Somi claiming to have asked for a replacement but not doing it.

And if you review scum chat, you’ll see I was against it, and even said I considered it angleshooting.

Also, spilled milk but if you suspect someone of being a doctor it's generally a good idea to keep that to yourself.

Under threat of "do reads or be night killed", I feel justified in my actions.

Fred, it’s two different things. You can do reads without role speculation or role fishing.

With Wam's claim in willing to hold off on eliminating him, though my first thought was role cop when he described his results. Also curious as to why his results were not loud like the other two joats

I'm pretty sure Wam is claiming to be one of the two jacks mentioned in the daystart post. See here for example

Wam said he wasn’t loud. https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=79737#p79737

Also totally unrelated to whats being discussed atm .

But I had mentally noted that beddie reading thea+Fred as indies survivors seemed like a pretty plausible read, but also one I think is more likely to come from scum (Because you would discard the scum multiball theory to have some good confidence there)

its not a strong read since its also a possibility that I also vaguely entertained, but since bessie at least had sorta more teeth there wanted to mention.

I don’t understand why this speculation (indie survivor lovers) would be more likely to come from scum than town.

For the record, I don't think it's likely that you're scum, it's just a possibility. The cop targeted you for the same reason I did. I was town reading you at the end of the day, but knowing for sure vastly makes the game easier. I think you're underestimating how scary the possibility of scum!Adum feels lol. I'll think about your last line some.

Agree with most of this.


Well that was an hour and a half because I'm slow and don't know how to play any other way. I'll be around tonight but not in the same room as my computer so I won't respond instantly.

[madge]

Votals:
Bessie - 1 - Thea
Wam - 4 - Seven, Bessie, Makhaira, Santygrass

Not voting: JC, Moody, Somi, Wam, Fred, Adum

11 players alive and 7 to hammer.

It is now Day 2. Night 2 starts in about nineteen and a half hours, see countdown:
https://countingdownto.com/?c=5877027
This is 7am China time on Wednesday the 13th of November, which is 11pm (Tues) in London and 6pm (Tues) in New York.

I agree with Bessie, slow downnnn folks lol, 8 pages in 24 hours??? like what

Also thanks for the flavour compliments, keep 'em coming!!!!!!

@Santy can you please unbold skill issue in your sig? because you make so many short posts it's very distracting when vote counting

[Freddino18]

Madge, I think you walked right into that one

skill issue

[AdumbroDeus]

@Bessie and Madge, sorry we had a lot of developments.

*Looks back and the 2022 11 page Halloween mafia* surely there's no way I'm responsible for this!

@Bessie btw, I just asked everyone abour why they didn't consider no yeets last day phase for mathematical reasons. You weren't somebody I particularly singled out but would appreciate an answer.

Snip for visibility

[Santygrass]

Hopefully this works better!

[Santygrass]

Also totally unrelated to whats being discussed atm .

But I had mentally noted that beddie reading thea+Fred as indies survivors seemed like a pretty plausible read, but also one I think is more likely to come from scum (Because you would discard the scum multiball theory to have some good confidence there)

its not a strong read since its also a possibility that I also vaguely entertained, but since bessie at least had sorta more teeth there wanted to mention.

I don’t understand why this speculation (indie survivor lovers) would be more likely to come from scum than town.

Its moreso the fact that those sort of alignment reads are always more likely to achieve as scum when you see someone acting also sus , the brain works and slots a indy read / tends to naturally focus towards that. (f.e. as scum in a non multiball game , scum!you sees the pair acting sus/survivalistic while not helping town, you discard them as scum which is something town couldnt do with certainty to work in the headspace and indy is the answer that ends up locked in. Is moreso the rationale)

[Seven]

iloled

[bessie]

@Bessie btw, I just asked everyone abour why they didn't consider no yeets last day phase for mathematical reasons. You weren't somebody I particularly singled out but would appreciate an answer.

On this forum, voting "No Elim" on D1 is generally viewed as scummy and some players will policy vote the player that does it (cough moody7277 cough). I think I have voted No Elim on D1 just to stir the pot, but I don't remember the game.

Re: when it is mathematically advantageous to No Elim, I'm not good at that type of calculation and would depend on our resident mathematical genius, Sabrar, to advise me.

Note that in this game I would be against No Elim if it was based on purely mathematical reasons. This is Madge's traditional Halloween game and her time to shine with creative roles and lots of powers, possible multiple mafia factions, and possible indie roles. I am surprised there is a backup role and would have never put that in my setup speculation. Not a town backup role, anyway. It doesn't seem to fit with Madge's creativity.

[Makhaira]

Deadline is like right when I get out of work tomorrow. Depending on how busy work is I may only have 1 hour to check in about 3ish hours before deadline. I will try to have my phone with the thread up as my day should be winding down near the end and I can spare like 20 min to try to be there for deadline but I cannot promise anything

I'm pretty sure I voted bessie post wam claim so idk why I'm still there on VC but I'll just do it again to make things 100% clear

Vote: Bessie

I'm sorry guys I'm just burnt out af on this phase and all I really care about rn is seeing where people come down on these two wagons. If any of you post between now and then and you havent cast a vote or strongly signaled where you intent to vote by like 2 PM eastern tomorrow I'm going to push for your yeet so hard your head will spin. VOTE PEOPLE IT IS TIME TO TAKE ACTUAL POSITIONS AND ADVANCE THE GAME NO MORE FENCE SITTING

[Sabrar]

Votals:
Bessie - 2 - Thea, Makhaira
Wam - 3 - Seven, Bessie, Santygrass

Not voting: JC, Moody, Somi, Wam, Fred, Adum

11 players alive and 7 to hammer.

I'm pretty sure I voted bessie post wam claim so idk why I'm still there on VC but I'll just do it again to make things 100% clear

I've actually caught this during my review but we appreciate players checking votals as it is easy to miss things.

[Makhaira]

No elim is generally bad for town, its only worth doing in certain scenarios where you can have confidence in the number of elims per night and can get a slightly more advantageous town to scum ratio or in games where town has worked out strong PR synergies that are hard for scum to undermine when town is ahead on ratio or night economy tempo. I think now is so not the time to have this meta discussion though we literally need to be focusing on the wagons we are basically out of time

[Makhaira]

Bessie somi wam santy is my yeetables in order from most pref to least, I kind want to see wam try to prove himself or draw an NK, I get why seven doesn't believe the claim though, and yeah he could be true claimin mechanically but it's just a scum PR so I'm not gonna throw any tantrums I just want to see in clear terms where people actually are willing to put their votes theres just been so much tentative posturing is so frustrating

[Freddino18]

Vote: Wam

Madge, what's the countdown timer at?

[Theallieza]

@Bessie and Madge, sorry we had a lot of developments.

*Looks back and the 2022 11 page Halloween mafia* surely there's no way I'm responsible for this!

@Bessie btw, I just asked everyone abour why they didn't consider no yeets last day phase for mathematical reasons. You weren't somebody I particularly singled out but would appreciate an answer.

This is a role madness game with possibly multiple independent roles and no guarantee of balance. The logic of no elim for even numbered players does not apply. Possibly in a MYLO situation it *might* be safe to NL, but even still if we are in a 2-1-1 situation, NL is likely losing whereas eliminating correctly may be winning.

I haven't read anything since page 30 and don't plan on it. I don't have the time or energy to keep up with a game this speed.

[Theallieza]

So.claim time,

Town JOAT (yep I know).

So I have flavour that says there are 3 JOATs not.going to claim the role name but Seven should know WHO I am. Interestingly any mention of alignment of the 3 JOATs is conspicuously absent from my flabour.

I also am not loud but as a result some.of my one shots are less useful than classic ones.

Last night I used a role watcher power on Adum. Hope being that I would see the kill and have data down the line that if someone claimed RB and I saw RB visit adum its good evidence. I also wanted to keep my more useful.ones for later in the game.

So adum was visited by

Publishing cop
Jack of all trades
Jack of all trades

That doesn't Inclue me!! I checked.

Hence why as soon as I saw the result on adum I voted.

I have questions to answer in thread am working through it along with fleshing out my bessie read.

Just to clarify... Did you see a night kill on Adum? Would your role have seen that?

Last post. This was after Fred relied some reads on thread and said thea would elaborate. Cricket sounds since then , aknowledging Wam's claim and not much to say about it ¿?

I struggle to see the mason team being also with a scum third partner. But if someone told me that thea was intentionally scum siding, I would believe them

I said I was travelling this weekend and would only be able to post infrequently. I prefer to spend time with my family than read 20 pages of mafia.

I have not talked to Fred about my reads any more than I have in thread. Because I have not been around to read the thread or communicate with him in chat.

[Theallieza]

Can someone give me the two sentence version of why nobody believes Wam's claim?

[Wam]

Bout to go to a show so won't be around for a few hours.


everyone but especially Thea and secondarily Mak and Santy, mathematically it wouldve been best to no yeet yesterDay, now that saying this isn't effectively giving role info I'm wondering why none of your proposed it.

Thea, because they're explicitly on the record on a game I just read saying this, Mak and Santy because I consider them both as having "basics, elevated" play styles. I also think I remember Mak saying this before.

This is a wierd take given Santy claimed a vig power.

Which I can't see santy mentioning in their responses but I have skimmed the 5 pages this morning.

Busy day for me so qont be around much. Will dig for any questions later

[Theallieza]

Bout to go to a show so won't be around for a few hours.


everyone but especially Thea and secondarily Mak and Santy, mathematically it wouldve been best to no yeet yesterDay, now that saying this isn't effectively giving role info I'm wondering why none of your proposed it.

Thea, because they're explicitly on the record on a game I just read saying this, Mak and Santy because I consider them both as having "basics, elevated" play styles. I also think I remember Mak saying this before.

This is a wierd take given Santy claimed a vig power.

Which I can't see santy mentioning in their responses but I have skimmed the 5 pages this morning.

Busy day for me so qont be around much. Will dig for any questions later

Why did you think that Adum was cleared based on the night results?

Adum is claiming he was the target of the NK, which is incompatible with your result.

[Wam]

So initially thought he was scum based on the loud cop as I knew a loud cop visited. Then worked out seven visited as the joat cop. So swapped to assuming the cop was paranoid insane and Seven was right.

I'm assuming there is a ninja which given the amount of town powers floating around feels a good balance.

[Theallieza]

Hmm...

Okay, Wam is Town and I do not support his elim. I do not think mafia would have a watcher on the role that they NKed, so either Adum is lying, or Wam is Town.

Vote: JC