Halloween Mafia 2021 - The Party Trap - Day 7

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@The Snide Sniper, thank you for your responses. I had some concern that your comment about Mafia cult immunity meant you'd been thinking about it as a result of discussing it with your scum buddy, or possibly because you're the scum leader and were trying to figure out why your recruit failed. Both are still possible.

Re. resurrection, okay, if Town of Salem has a resurrection role, your thoughts on this make sense.

Could you have a stab at ordering a list of players from town to scum, no ties, please?

@wam, any further comment you'd like to add?

I didn't get to BoomFrog with my overnight reads, so best get on with it, before I run out of time for another evening!

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Post 1: was planning on being productive.
Post 2: Claims to not have planned a gambit. Thanks mods for flavour. I am town. LG is probably town, likes his thoughts re. me. Votes somitomi for picking on moody not LG for not being hyped about flavour.
Post 3: Answers TSS re. cult. HA is scum. No read on wam yet, mod vote might be relevant.
Post 4: Promises an explanation after Suzaku gives opinion on his read.
Post 5: HA's comments clearly suggest post hoc justification to his support that was based on having too much info. Thinks HA was trying to sound agreeable with two townies (me and BF), but had no actual clue what was going on. Votes HA. Suggests LG or Suzaku can join me in voting TSS.
Post 6: Larp character = BF persona.
Post 7: Challenges TSS re. "gambit for mafia meaning". Asked what TSS thought was expected from town gambit.
Post 8: Suggests his early town read of me was a gambit in response to Suzaku. Still wants TSS gambit explanation. Asks bessie and patzer about my setup spec and their guesses.
Post 9: Was at scum lean on TSS, but suzaku convinced to swing to town lean. Still wants gambit explanation from TSS. Restates faction flavour question for patzer and bessie, wants flavour matched to scum groups. HA bad luck getting made as scum. Reads list has LG/somitomi vibing; Suzaku pro town unless TSS is Mafia; Me town, earlier town was invalid; TSS slight town ping, but concerning mafia gambit. bessie - no alignment indication; wam nothing stuck out, wants more evaluation; moody putting in work, but no vibing, possible scum by PoE - he was always planning to let off hook for RVS, which is very slightly scummy; patzer needs improvement, HA scum.
Post 10: Really doesn't like read patzer's heury read, thinks it's piling on someone vulnerable and not for reasons agreed with, so switches vote.
Post 11: asks moody to join voting for patzer.
Post 12: saw I was reaction fishing, but didn't want to take pressure of HA, hence why asked LG and suzaku to assist me. Asks HA if he thinks he's scum really.
Post 13: Still wants TSS to explain gambit comments.
Post 14: Asks bessie if she'll do woof/grr list.
Post 15: Consensus is that TSS gets to stay, newbie town should shine through. Doesn't want to wait for last minute shenanigans, wants majority elimination; wants everyone to vote for HA or patzer. Voting for others is helping Mafia.
Post 16: Reread intro flavour and now understands my and bessie assignment of flavour to factions. Comments are now null. Asks bessie when faction flavour connection figured out.
Post 17: Asks bessie if she'll place a vote.
Post 18: <D2> Was hoping to be in cult... Doesn't think anybody should claim anything yet.

Nothing major stands out to me in BoomFrog's posts as being particularly off. I did notice a lack of comments on the cult on my first read through, but on further read through, there was almost as little specific comments on the mafia. Slight scum ping nonetheless, because in his post encouraging everyone to vote heury or patzer, he said voting others is helping Mafia (possible cult leader slip, conscious that Mafia is the threat to deal with).

@BoomFrog, why Mafia specifically, and not the cult?

Away from that, the pressure he's been pushing is good. I also think he wouldn't necessarily have bothered attempting to swing the lynch onto heury, although I could see scum!BoomFrog doing that.

Final list for now:
Town
Suzaku
somitomi
wam
The Snide Sniper
moody
bessie
BoomFrog
LaserGuy
patzer
heuristically_alone
Scum

[Wam]

@jimbob I thought you were looking for something like that. But I think it did come across that if snide is mafia they haven't thought through the full implications of a mafia member being recruited. Which is that the cult then know all the mafia members, powers and plans. Which means the mafia is doomed from the moment it happens. So I would agree that it is unlikely that the mafia can be recruited.

[boomfrog]

@TSS: I still want to know what you imagine a "scum gambit" is.

[LaserGuy]

Not getting flips upfront is going to drag the early part of each day out... I'm really hoping we'll get them at Noon, if they aren't resurrected. If we don't (possibly because resurrection can happen on a later Day), we're going to be heavily relying on investigative roles, I feel.

The rules don't specify that resurrections must happen the Day immediately following a player's death. I do not think we can assume that we will get any flip info or have any resurrections today. From the way the rules are written and from what we've seen so far, I'm envisioning that we may be mostly in the dark until D3 or even D4 and then suddenly get a deluge of flip results all at once.

Scumreading a mate is definitely within Heury's range, he did it to me with excellent results in WWZ Mafia. Having nothing but townreads now makes me feel like he's trying extra hard to avoid hinting at his mate, because he knows some of us could spot that sort of misdirection.
I do agree with bessie that the setup makes bussing unlikely anyway.

Ok. But do you think they’re too cheeky to come from mafia!heury specificly, who is kinda always cheeky in an endearing way?

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's a bit more brazen than I'd expect.

Ok. How do you reconcile these remarks with having heury and Snide Sniper at the bottom of your WOO-BOO list?

Considering that we have at least four factions this game, why would you expect someone's Town-scum list to have correlated reads in this way?

For patzer I'd say lean scum, at least if heury turns out to be scum. This read:

heury: Something about his vibes is pointing me towards lean scum. For example this message is needlessly teasing at the possibility of him not being town, and I don't see why a townie would do that even as a joke.

Seems way too weak when heury has basically been digging a hole for himself this whole time. Although I wouldn't put a strong scum lean on heury; he seems like he could just be clueless town.

Can you talk to me about this read? Why do you feel that patzer's read is too weak here, when your actual read of heury isn't very strong either?

1) Jimbob
2) Boomfrog
3) Moody (putting him higher bc he did some decent analysis)
4) Somitomi
5) Bessie
6) Laserguy
7) Wam
8) Suzaku
9) Snide Sniper
10) heury

Do you have any updated thoughts on this? Outside of activity levels, has anything else struck you as suspicious among the bottom two-thirds of players that you had as basically neutral? What do you make of the fact that a significant number of players were scumreading you at the end of D1?

[The Snide Sniper]

@mod will the daily updates say if the antisocial survivor is alive, like with the cult members?

@TSS: I still want to know what you imagine a "scum gambit" is.

I honestly had no idea what a scum gambit might be when I made that read. My thought process was basically "hmmm if he's not doing this thing he's expected to do maybe he's doing a scum version".

For patzer I'd say lean scum, at least if heury turns out to be scum. This read:

heury: Something about his vibes is pointing me towards lean scum. For example this message is needlessly teasing at the possibility of him not being town, and I don't see why a townie would do that even as a joke.

Seems way too weak when heury has basically been digging a hole for himself this whole time. Although I wouldn't put a strong scum lean on heury; he seems like he could just be clueless town.

Can you talk to me about this read? Why do you feel that patzer's read is too weak here, when your actual read of heury isn't very strong either?

"Something about his vibes" was a pretty big understatement and that seemed like it could be a mafia member trying to follow the bandwagon without putting his fellow mafia in too harsh a light.

But when I did a read on heury, it looked less like he was trying to squirm out of a scum accusation and more that he was trying to backpedal from a faux pas. However, with reading through his posts again I think I overlooked his later posts which have much stronger scummy vibes. (which is why I actually voted for him)

Also, here's a town-to-scum ordering:

LaserGuy
jimbob
Wam
bessie
[Suzaku]
moody
BoomFrog
Somitomi
--- scum line ---
patzer
[heury]

[madge]

@mod will the daily updates say if the antisocial survivor is alive, like with the cult members?

If the antisocial survivor dies with no hope of resurrection, it will be announced publicly. If it is possible that they are resurrected, it will not be.

[moody7277]

Couple of early game day thoughts:

--Suzaku getting himself NKed and there still being one cultist alive makes my -1 read of him late D1 seem rather silly.

--For my own personal use, I am reading patzer's oblivious hammering of heury as the complete accident that the facts would indicate. That of course doesn't negate all of the other stuff that I read on her that looked scummy.

--Bandwagon analysis is going to have to be conditional for now, but still might be worthwhile.

--As deeply entrenched as the scummy impression of him was, heury is going to have to do some fast talking if he doesn't want to get eliminated again if he gets rezzed at noon. His last post was two days before end of D1, so I don't know if he got rattled by all the groupthink against him or if he just got busy Outside.

[bessie]

Catch up post from my last post at the top of page 7.

Vote: heury

What were your reasons for voting for heury? I know you had him on your scum list, but you never gave a read or reasons why.

Pre-post edit: this was answered see below.

Oh boo. I was hoping to be in the cult today...

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As others have noted, and I think I said earlier, I find bessie hard to read. I'm not getting any strong town or scum pings off of her. I find her positioning of Suzaku in her woof-grr list odd, and look forward to any explanations she may have for why he's down there (plus others, like why am I at the top? Why is patzer low?). I'm giving her the benefit of the doubt for now that a combination of tiredness and the premature hammer denied her the chance to explain it.

I pretty much stopped working on my reads when I saw the hammer and went to sleep, and I didn’t go back to them over the night cycle. Here is where I was at on Suzaku:

Suzaku
Interesting amount of his content is about how he can’t read me, I think this is an excuse for misreading me later.
Disagree on his Snide Sniper reasoning.
Note that he answered BoomFrog’s question to The Snide Sniper re mafia gambit. Suspect.


@jimbobmacdoodle, what is your reaction to this?

The Pizzazz Posse Facebook Group has 12 members.

For the record I do believe it was an accident by patzar. Also it's not like we lost much of the day so I can't see any real advantage to scum patzar doing a fake accidental hammer.

Well it prevented me, Suzaku and possibly others from posting final thoughts. I also think that the hammer was accidental brcause of the time stamps, but I find it interesting that you are coming up with reasons to justify what happened.

Well, I suppose no flips was predictable, but it's still annoying. The one game I remember that didn't have flips all game got really frustrating and was a triumph for scum. Waiting to vote seems a good option.

Yep that was my fault. I chose wrong in the three-way gunfight in the end.

Scumreading a mate is definitely within Heury's range, he did it to me with excellent results in WWZ Mafia. Having nothing but townreads now makes me feel like he's trying extra hard to avoid hinting at his mate, because he knows some of us could spot that sort of misdirection.
I do agree with bessie that the setup makes bussing unlikely anyway.

I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's a bit more brazen than I'd expect.

Ok. How do you reconcile these remarks with having heury and Snide Sniper at the bottom of your WOO-BOO list?

Considering that we have at least four factions this game, why would you expect someone's Town-scum list to have correlated reads in this way?

That question was for somitomi and he hasn’t answered my follow up question on the top of page 7 yet. Have you read my page 7 post or are you just picking out random stuff to comment on?

But when I did a read on heury, it looked less like he was trying to squirm out of a scum accusation and more that he was trying to backpedal from a faux pas. However, with reading through his posts again I think I overlooked his later posts which have much stronger scummy vibes. (which is why I actually voted for him)

When did you do this reread, which showed heury’s later posts in a much scummier light?

[patzer]

Well this is annoying. I was hoping we'd get some new information in finding out about who heury was, but evidently not.

I'll try to analyse what I think of everyone now in the morning.

[boomfrog]

@Bessie: Eta on finishing you reads list?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@BoomFrog, why Mafia specifically, and not the cult?

BoomFrog, did you miss this question from me (it's in my read of you post)?

@The Snide Sniper: you only have 2 people below your "scum" line, when there is likely 4 (2+ Mafia, 1 Cult, 1 Survivor). Care to explain/hazard a guess who the other 2 might be?

--Suzaku getting himself NKed and there still being one cultist alive makes my -1 read of him late D1 seem rather silly.

What about cult-leader!Suzaku, who successfully recruited? (Personally, I think Suzaku is town, but he could potentially not be).

--Bandwagon analysis is going to have to be conditional for now, but still might be worthwhile.

Care to actually do any?

Suzaku
Interesting amount of his content is about how he can’t read me, I think this is an excuse for misreading me later.
Disagree on his Snide Sniper reasoning.
Note that he answered BoomFrog’s question to The Snide Sniper re mafia gambit. Suspect.


@jimbobmacdoodle, what is your reaction to this?

You're hard to read, so I don't find Suzaku's read of you particularly suspicious - in fact, he is my towniest read. I don't agree that it's a significant amount of his content - he posted reads and comments about several other players in between his discussion with you on it. I made a similar read of you. Do you think I'm planning on using it as an excuse to misread you too later on?

Wait, just reread your post, and I'm guessing the question was actually directed at the Facebook membership comment immediately below. Short version: no clue. I don't think it really confirms/denies much either way, since there aren't 19 or 12 player s, but there could be some other meaning. I think it's likely still just fluff though.

@mod will the daily updates say if the antisocial survivor is alive, like with the cult members?

I don't see this question coming from a newbie who was assigned the Antisocial Survivor role. I could see it coming from practically any other player though.

[Wam]

@bessie I didnt mean to justify it I was trying to state that I can't see why scum patzer would hammer therefore it's more likely to be an accident.

I think it's odd your throwing shade for this? Especially when we don't know Huery's alignment. Hint of TMI

Bessie why do you think final thoughts from suzaku would help town?

@Bessie: Eta on finishing you reads list?

What about yours boom?

@snide sniper can you please elaborate your somi read?

[Wam]

This is my last reads list with suzkaku and Heury removed pending any potential flips/rez. My head hasnt really moved on from there.

Town
jimbob
laserguy
somitomi
BoomFrog
moody7277
bessie
Snide sniper
patzer
Scum

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@wam, any particular reason you have bessie down there? What about LG in 2nd place?

[Wam]

Bessie I will explain more when my question is answered. This is town LG to me I'm not seeing the suspicion that others are finding.

[moody7277]

What about cult-leader!Suzaku, who successfully recruited? (Personally, I think Suzaku is town, but he could potentially not be).

Order of operations isn't my strong suit, but it couldn't hurt to ask. I had assumed he was on the top of your Town>Scum list solely because he was the target of the NK. Is this correct?

Does the cult recruit happen before the night kill?

Care to actually do any [bandwagon analysis]?

Final D1 votals:
boomfrog (1) - heuri
heuri (6) - somitomi, suzaku, wam, bessie, the snide sniper, patzer
Patzer (2) - boomfrog, moody
NV(2) - jimbob, LG

About the time heury went dark, it was 2-2 between he and patzer. It would have been reasonable to assume that he would have put down a defensive vote had he been posting later in the day.

wam: 3rd vote, so the cliche says he's scum. Was breaking a tie in favor of the candidate who would have eliminated, but not if heury put down a defensive vote. Bussing in case of a wam-heury scum team wouldn't make sense here. Does leave the possibility of a wam-patzer scum team open, but otherwise I'm not sure if it's indicative.

bessie: 4th vote. The seemingly decisive vote if one assumed heury were to keep posting. Would seem to rule out a bessie-huery team, so if heury does flip scum she looks very townie. Inverse (town!heury > scum!bessie) is not as sure a thing as we were all reading heury as scummy.

Snide: 5th vote. Very late in the day. Perfectly safe position for scum to bus since heury's elinination looked to happen in any event. Huery flipping scum does not clear Snide. Town!heury flip is NAI about Snide.

patzer: hammer. Hammer itself is NAI because it came so late in the day and, as she said, it was accidental since it was posted the same minute as Snide's vote. Otherwise most of what goes with Snide's vote also pertains to hers.

LaserGuy: Not voting. Said he wouldn't unless in case of a tie. I have a hypothesis about that, but I don't think discussing it would be productive.

jimbob: Not voting. Umm, why not?

me and boomfrog: Alternate wagon on patzer. Timing suggests the possibility of a scum team between one of us and heury if he flips scum.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

What about cult-leader!Suzaku, who successfully recruited? (Personally, I think Suzaku is town, but he could potentially not be).

Order of operations isn't my strong suit, but it couldn't hurt to ask. I had assumed he was on the top of your Town>Scum list solely because he was the target of the NK. Is this correct?

Actually, Suzaku was top of my town list before the end of day yesterday. See my main wall of reads post here.

bessie: 4th vote. The seemingly decisive vote if one assumed heury were to keep posting. Would seem to rule out a bessie-huery team, so if heury does flip scum she looks very townie. Inverse (town!heury > scum!bessie) is not as sure a thing as we were all reading heury as scummy.

What about cult/survivor!bessie? Mafia isn't the only scum we have to worry about... Unless you're cult (and have figured out how to deal with the Survivor...).

LaserGuy: Not voting. Said he wouldn't unless in case of a tie. I have a hypothesis about that, but I don't think discussing it would be productive.

I also have a theory (actually two competing ones, one for town!LG and one for cult-leader!LG, but the same basic idea). I agree discussing this further is not useful.

jimbob: Not voting. Umm, why not?

I said I'd be around at deadline, so there was no need for me to vote at that time, especially as general consensus was for a heury elim, and he was already at L-3. My vote would have been on heury (see the bottom of my wall of reads), and I'm happy to be treated as scummy as anybody else for that if he flips town.

[somitomi]

Sorry everyone, been surprisingly busy for a bit. I'm gonna catch up with the day now.
Leftover from D1:

I’m not asking what you think of heury and Snide Sniper as a team, I’m asking why, if you think heury could be bussing this game, you haven’t reflected this in your list. But as you said, Heury has all townreads and he is currently voting for BoomFrog.

Not sure what gave you the impression that I think heury could be bussing this game when I mentioned the other option as a possiblity and specifically agreed with your point about bussing in this setup.

[moody7277]

@jimbob:

The post you cited covered points 1 and 4. so I'll take your word on those. Cult at this point is a bit tricky as there is no team to try to read connections from and they're as much in the dark as to who is scum as town is. I know they are potentially the greater threat, but it would take a stroke of luck to find them right now. I'm still shaky on how the AS affects tactics, except that they would muck up Elim or lose something fierce.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

@jimbob:

The post you cited covered points 1 and 4. so I'll take your word on those. Cult at this point is a bit tricky as there is no team to try to read connections from and they're as much in the dark as to who is scum as town is. I know they are potentially the greater threat, but it would take a stroke of luck to find them right now. I'm still shaky on how the AS affects tactics, except that they would muck up Elim or lose something fierce.

My concern is that you're saying bessie will be town if scum!Heury, but that's based entirely on her not being a buddy with heury.

[LaserGuy]

That question was for somitomi and he hasn’t answered my follow up question on the top of page 7 yet. Have you read my page 7 post or are you just picking out random stuff to comment on?

Somitomi answered your question (he has also since answered your follow-up). My question was for you. I'm trying to understand your perspective. But your evading my question has been noted.

Also, yes, since we are essentially repeating D1, I am going to be going back over earlier parts of the thread to look for things that might be interesting to follow up on.

"Something about his vibes" was a pretty big understatement and that seemed like it could be a mafia member trying to follow the bandwagon without putting his fellow mafia in too harsh a light.

But when I did a read on heury, it looked less like he was trying to squirm out of a scum accusation and more that he was trying to backpedal from a faux pas. However, with reading through his posts again I think I overlooked his later posts which have much stronger scummy vibes. (which is why I actually voted for him)

But at the time you made this read on patzer, you said heury could just be clueless Town. So why do you give patzer a hard time for hedging on his read when you were doing a similar thing at the same time?

[somitomi]

Okay, my brain is mushy I can't concentrate on anything today for some reason.

The rules don't specify that resurrections must happen the Day immediately following a player's death. I do not think we can assume that we will get any flip info or have any resurrections today. From the way the rules are written and from what we've seen so far, I'm envisioning that we may be mostly in the dark until D3 or even D4 and then suddenly get a deluge of flip results all at once.

I hope you're wrong about this, because going three days without a flip sounds terrible.

What about cult/survivor!bessie? Mafia isn't the only scum we have to worry about... Unless you're cult (and have figured out how to deal with the Survivor...).

I wouldn't really expect much from a wagon analysis without a flip, but this one feels a bit.. superficial I guess?

[madge]

Does the cult recruit happen before the night kill?

We are basing things off natural action resolution (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Resolution), but there may be some exceptions.

Per NAR, the kill happens before the recruit.

[boomfrog]

@BoomFrog, why Mafia specifically, and not the cult?

BoomFrog, did you miss this question from me (it's in my read of you post)?

I missed that entire post and wam's right after it.

I originally typed scum but changed it to Mafia since only the Mafia has extra influence over the elimination vote since the other scum are single agents right now. Therefore only the Mafia is helped extra by passive voters. I like to be precise. Obviously cult leader would vote to preserve themselves but so would a townie.

Per NAR, the kill happens before the recruit.

In this case Suzaku is almost certainly town (with a small chance of survivor). They can't be cult, they were likely eliminated by the Mafia and so baring craziness they aren't Mafia, and they didn't seem like they were trying to lay low so I doubt they are survivor. If anyone has a means to resurrect them, I doubt you will have a more townie target.

@wam: Why take the dead off your sorted list? Their alignment is still up for debate. Also why the random jab at me for a reads list? I made a list D1 and Bessie hasn't. We're you waiting for my list before you do something?

[bessie]

@Bessie: Eta on finishing you reads list?

If you want I can post my notes to where I left off on D1. Other than that, between being sick and working, I don’t have more than about an hour a night to play, and that’s usually what I spend on my catch up post. Most of my thoughts are in my daily posts. But for consolidated, detailed reads I can’t get to it until the weekend.

You're hard to read, so I don't find Suzaku's read of you particularly suspicious - in fact, he is my towniest read. I don't agree that it's a significant amount of his content - he posted reads and comments about several other players in between his discussion with you on it. I made a similar read of you. Do you think I'm planning on using it as an excuse to misread you too later on?

You might be. But you have attempted detailed reads of me in this game. Suzaku didn’t (other than saying I was hard to read and I was “very much on meta”).

Wait, just reread your post, and I'm guessing the question was actually directed at the Facebook membership comment immediately below. Short version: no clue. I don't think it really confirms/denies much either way, since there aren't 19 or 12 player s, but there could be some other meaning. I think it's likely still just fluff though.

Ok. From my earlier discussion with you, I had theorized that the number might correlate with the number of cult members, like it would go up to 20 if there was a recruit and I thought you were thinking along the same lines. But the number went down significantly. I still think it means something; I can’t see it being entirely random.

@bessie I didnt mean to justify it I was trying to state that I can't see why scum patzer would hammer therefore it's more likely to be an accident.

I think it's odd your throwing shade for this? Especially when we don't know Huery's alignment. Hint of TMI

Bessie why do you think final thoughts from suzaku would help town?

Reread my post; I said me, Suzaku, and others. Because more content is almost always beneficial for town. Because it is useful to have everyone’s end of day thoughts regardless of alignment. Because if someone chooses not to post, that can give information too. I think its odd you’re throwing shade for this.
Why did you ask about Suzaku specifically and not state the question in general terms, or even in the terms I used?

Not sure what gave you the impression that I think heury could be bussing this game when I mentioned the other option as a possiblity and specifically agreed with your point about bussing in this setup.

Because as you said, he did it with great success in WWZ mafia, and do you think he would bus BoomFrog since that was his only scum read? And do you have any comment on the rest of my post?

Somitomi answered your question (he has also since answered your follow-up). My question was for you. I'm trying to understand your perspective. But your evading my question has been noted.

Somi hadn’t answered my follow-up question at the time I made that post. Your attempt at misrepresenting this has been noted. So to answer your question, we have four factions but at this time we only have one non-town team. So I do think it is possible to scum hunt for the team.