Are we human or are we dancer mafia (game over, Dancers win!)

[Freddino18]

It's not Thea.

[Theallieza]

I am full cleared by Wam.

[JC_DADDY25]

No, that Thea was so quick to vote and want day to end. Right now I'm trying to decide between Moody and Madge

[Freddino18]

If you vote Madge, there's a chance she goes out. I will not switch my vote.

[JC_DADDY25]

At this point Thea would be the obvious choice for a NK, but they have to eliminate Fred because they can't take a chance on voting him because of the vengeful.

I'd like to hear more from Madge and Moody.

[Theallieza]

There isn't really any content that needs to be said. We flipped two scum and JC was on the wrong side of both wagons. If he's Town, we can't let him to endgame regardless.

Vote Santy

Happy with either him or JC. Not interested in anyone else until we see a town flip from either of these two

don't let my paranoia distract anyone though these are mostly notes to myself for deeper in lategame, my current assessment is the mates are within JC, Somi/santy, moody and JC and Santy are far and away the best plays today

JC CANNOT GO TO ENDGAME THOUGH EVER

I do think though that Seven's dying push for santy should be honored with seven flipping town. Seven hardread scum bessie, have to give credit where credit is due, Seven's scumdar was on point last phase. scum!santy in endgame also seems like a menace so yeah both JC and santy elims are both valid and come with diff benefits

[JC_DADDY25]

What wagon was I on last day phase?

[madge]

I'd like to hear more from Madge and Moody.

lol as if i'm going to help you flip the wagon to me, in the vanishingly few worlds in which your flip doesn't cause endgame i will talk

[madge]

was anyone NOT on the santy wagon? it was you who was saying bessie was town wasn't it?

[JC_DADDY25]

I agree though, I'd rather not be here at Endgame.

[JC_DADDY25]

I believed she was town, so did you.

[madge]

Most people believed she was town until Seven came in with his scheme. My brain got broken by that so I wasn't sure what I believed by the end, was just trusting what I hoped was indeed a townie's read

We should make suer we let Mak post before we hammer too

[madge]

actually mak won't be killed overnight because tree stump, so there's no need to wait for mak, nvm, in fact better that mak doesn't post (unless he's changed his mind about supporting the JC wagon) so scum can't kill accordingly

[Freddino18]

Regardless, we're waiting on Moody.

[madge]

well yeah, we can't hammer without him

[Freddino18]

grrrrr

If we kill JC, scum will just kill whoever susses them the most, so that they can vote for whoever gets a single vote among the survivors. (Thea ffs please do not vote Moody D6)

[Freddino18]

I agree though, I'd rather not be here at Endgame.

Regardless of your alignment, going meekly to your death today either guarantees or almost guarantees your team's loss, and thus, by the rules, you must fight it. Make content, make noise.

[Theallieza]

grrrrr

If we kill JC, scum will just kill whoever susses them the most, so that they can vote for whoever gets a single vote among the survivors. (Thea ffs please do not vote Moody D6)

Why do you think JC is Town?

[Theallieza]

And why is Madge scum?

[JC_DADDY25]

@bessie vote a viable wagon right meow

@bessie if you switch to JC I could also switch with you.

Not voting Seven or Fred today

At this point at EoD, his vote was on Moody.

[JC_DADDY25]

@moody are you going to comment on my previous post? What is your real reason for voting for me because it can’t be Wam’s result.

It's PoE:

2. Wam - town (cop)
3. Bessie - ?
6. Madge - town (slip)
7. Seven - town (wam's result)
8. Theallieza - town (wam's result)
9. Santygrass- ?
10. Freddino18 - town (everyone else thinks he had a town slip)
11. moody7277 - town (just because)
12. JC_DADDY25 - ?

Three question marks = 3 scum

This was Moody's list.

[madge]

unvote

yikes. maybe i don't want moody to hammer right away.

i'm gonna mull this over and maybe go back and re-read a few things myself

[JC_DADDY25]

ugh I don't have the time or the spoons to do a proper read/analysis which sucks because it's EoD and I kinda need to

Hopefully Mak will have a take I can agree with

I think moody/somi are the PoE I'm most comfy with, I'm so uncomfortable about the bessie wagon starting because Seven claimed a result they didn't have and then everyone's still going along with it? Like aren't we meant to update based on new information?

But like - just because it's irrational doesn't mean it's wrong. I get the idea of testing the team based on that post Somi made back in the day. I guess I'm confused about what that means for us if we get it wrong vs right.

If we get it wrong we end up in MELo, but then we're basically guaranteed to hit the others.

what do we learn from each?

Santy flips town: says nothing about moody/JC's alignment
Santy flips scum: the comment clears Moody/JC at least as well as any documented townslips do

JC/moody flips town: says nothing about santy's alignment
JC/moody flips scum: makes santy more likely to be town

bessie flips town: Seven was lying about having a result (we knew this)
bessie flips scum: Seven is a great mafia player (we knew this)

like - am I missing something? bessie seems like the most useless flip of all of them.

what are the proposed teams? santy/JC/moody and then one with bessie and/or Fred - who is bessie's scumteam in this?

for me our priority should be on the most likely scummer as I think all this team guessing is navel gazing, once we yeet scum we can find connections, wagons etc and that'll be something

Santy flipping scum leaves Madge as scummer via PoE according to this comment.

[JC_DADDY25]

Wam - town
Seven - town
Thea - town

If Wam were a scum VT cop, it would be unideal for him to claim toDay as he would be expected to die during the night. I am therefore comfortable assuming toDay then that Wam is Town.

A Vanilla Cop is a weaker Role Cop that receives a Vanilla result on Vanilla Townies and Mafia Goons, and a non-vanilla result on all PR roles. An argument could made that a Godfather should be read as vanilla; however, I believe the logical interpretation of the role is that it would be read as non-vanilla. Typically a Godfather is a role that receives a favorable result regarding the player's alignment no its role. For example, a normal role cop should read a Godfather as a 'Godfather'. Vanilla is a role, not an alignment.

Wam is a Vanilla Town Cop. It checks both the role and alignment of a player. This is stronger than a Vanilla Cop because he is able to distinguish between Vanilla Townies and Mafia Goons. The key thing about this is that it is an 'AND' check. In order to receive a 'Vanilla Town' result, the player's role must be read as Vanilla and their alignment must be read as Town. As with a Vanilla Cop, therefore, a Godfather would not provide a "Vanilla Town" result as it would fail the first half of the check. Therefore, unless someone has another role in mind that would have manipulated Wam's results, they can likely be trusted. Therefore, both Thea and Seven are Town. Edit: bessie has proposed redirector or bus driver. See my response here. Additional point: A redirector would be incongruous with EGW's role, and so unlikely to exist in this setup. Edit: Wam has confirmed that the results are not redirected or bus driven here.

---

Madge - town

I think Madge's play today regarding the guilty result on bessie is town-indicative. I am considering two scenarios, scum!Madge with town!bessie and scum!Madge with scum!bessie. In town!bessie scenario, I don't think it is likely for Madge to have come up with thoughts like these:

@everyone: did anyone receive some sort of night action result on N1?

[snip]

Speculation: wam could be scum rolecop (is it bad that I love the little image in my head of scum!wam freaking out about a copped vanilla townie has a guilty result)

Seven-Bessie-Wam in one section:
- I don't think it makes sense for town!Seven to gambit killing bessie, she didn't scumread her that much did she? Like I could see a universe in which I see someone as so scummy that I fake a result so people will listen to me and vote them, but this is not what Seven had for bessie. The closest I could see is if Seven had some other night result (e.g. saw bessie visit EGW) and wants to avoid claiming her real power.
- Wam as town would do what he did
- Wam, as scum protecting bessie, would not risk claiming Thea is VT when Thea could easily contradict that (nb: maybe scum does have this actual power, or a rolecop, and knows Thea is VT). However, it would have the same issue: if Seven flips town, then Wam flips scum, and Bessie will also be killed. This makes two scum for one town, which seems excessive. That said - wam is claiming that Seven is vanilla town, so isn't actually trying to get Seven voted out, just trying to save Bessie. So I should probably re-analyse that.

Speculation: perhaps there's a cop who sends results (there was one in B99), and Seven received a result.

Speculation: wam could be scum rolecop (is it bad that I love the little image in my head of scum!wam freaking out about a copped vanilla townie has a guilty result)

I'm trying to figure out the mechanically optimal vote out. I agree we want the elim with best odds. My brain is feeling very soupy now and I need to get some work done, but I hope to come back in 4-5 hours.

Looking through the posts, I can't actually discount a scum!Madge/scum!bessie scenario. Scum!Madge would know that it was possible that I did have a genuine result on bessie and thus would be liable to have the speculations about Amnesia/JoAt/Tracker as she had. That being said, I think her speculation surrounding Wam's alignment and motivations likely stem from a town mindset. Her progression through her thoughts on Wam's claim are written in a way as if coming from a genuine stream of consciousness. This also resonates as genuine:

but I CAN'T

Fred - town

Fred's first game playing mafia was Millerizer Mafia, a game with an open setup and unique 3rd party-role. Fred's second game was Sorcerer's 11, a game with an open set-up and unique roles. Fred's 3rd game was Pick Your Poison, a semi-open setup with unique mechanics. Prior to this, he also entered AI mafia but replaced out at the beginning. I bring these up to put this post into context:

do mafia have daychat? it's probably in the rules which i did read ut didn't memorise.

The rules are a general ruleset with allowances for daychat but we don't even have a confirmation that there are actual scum.The rules are the vaguest on actual mechanics that I have ever seen. It's either that this game is entirely vanilla, or Adum is hiding a big stinker (wth is the name for one of those games?) (also I always phone it in until I do my in-depth analysis)

All Fred has seen up until now are open setups, generally with unique mechanics laid out. This is unconventional from how most players have entered the mafia scene, through Newbie games with Normal setups (mostly VT with a couple of PRs). He has yet to experience a closed setup, leading to his confusion at the start about whether there is even scum in the game. Additionally, due to this lack of experience with a closed setup, I do not believe that scum!Fred would have had the insight necessary to fake a line like this: "It's either that this game is entirely vanilla, or Adum is hiding a big stinker (wth is the name for one of those games?)"


That leaves these four:

Moody - ?
Somi/Santy - ?
JC - ?
Bessie - ?

I believe we probably have a ML so we could just eliminate all 4. I do want to try and make a hit today though.

I do not think the team is Somanti/Moody/JC because of somi's post here:

EBWOP:
I think JC has actually posted more than Heury, but maybe I'm nitpicking. Still, seems like a slightly odd distinction

(I should not be trying to post from work)

Just did a quick count, and it's JC 11, heury 5. What I noticed most about heury's posts were the fluffiness, although it looks like his last one included reads.

It is unlikely that scum!somi would bring attention to a possible partner tell between his partners.

Therefore, it can be concluded that bessie is at least one of the scum.

Vote: bessie

I know I'm town, so going by these reads I'm willing to vote for Moody.

[Freddino18]

And why is Madge scum?

Seven's reads that correctly implied Bessie and Santy, while having Madge as an alternate solve. To my knowledge at that point, Seven was the only person to have a strong negative read of Santy and a scummy read on Madge.

As for JC, there are many slips that I do not care to go back and find, but another part is past experience: I've only ever seen JC act like this as town. When shown that he has consistently bad reads, JC tries to step out so that stronger players can have more time to make a solve. Having done this before myself, and knowing that going belly-up is mildly against the rules if JC were scum; I believe that JC is just Vanilla Town who got hoodwinked pretty early on.